Buy Dhanuka Agritech Ltd For Target Rs. 892 - Centrum Broking Ltd
Despite industry challenges, Dhanuka Agritech (Dhanuka) reported robust Q4 numbers beating our estimates substantially. The company reported YoY revenue/ EBITDA/ PAT growth of 16.6%/ 19.7%/ 20.3%. Gross margin expansion led to 60bps YoY EBITDA margin expansion in Q4 to 21.0%. However, high cost inventories, lower demand due to low pest infestation, and uneven monsoon impacted FY23 operating performance with just 5.8% rise in YoY EBITDA despite 15.1% jump in YoY top?line. Nonetheless, management guided for double?digit revenue growth for FY24E with margin expansion despite the ongoing concern over El Nino and high channel inventories. Dhanuka’s Dahej project is expected to be commissioned by end?July and initially it will produce Bifenthrin technical to be used captively and sold in domestic as wells as exports market. Margins are likely to be lower initially till utilisation improves. Due to slower contribution from Dahej project, Dhanuka’s margins are expected to remain under check with impact on overall profitability. Hence, we have lowered our P/ E multiple from 16.5x to 15.0x. We have marginally changed our FY24E/ FY25E estimates. Rolling over valuations to FY25E, we maintain buy with a revised TP of Rs892 (earlier Rs931).
Completely volume led growth in Q4, FY23 growth too led by volumes
Dhanuka reported 16.6% YoY rise in revenues completely supported by volumes. During FY23, the company reported 15.1% YoY revenue growth which was led by ~8% volume growth and rest from pricing. GM expansion led to Q4 EBITDA margins expansion, however high cost inventories led to 140bps decline in FY23 EBITDA margins at 16.4%.
Product launches continued with three biological product launches
The company had indicated two 9(3) molecules and three 9(4) molecules to be launched in FY24E of which it has launched two 9(4) molecules in Q4 itself. Additionally, Dhanuka launched three Biological products and these products are expected to contribute over 5% of revenues in next 3?4 years.
Dahej to start contributing to revenues from FY24E, margin contribution later
Dhanuka’s greenfield Dahej project is expected to be commissioned by end?July. Initially the company will start manufacturing Bifenthrin and is likely to clock Rs500?600mn revenues in FY24E. However, margin contribution is expected to start with improvement in utilisation.
Margins to get cannibalized in FY24E/ FY25E due to Dahej scale up
Management guided 50?100bps EBITDA margin improvement in FY24E. However, due to lower utilisation of Dahej project, margins are likely to get cannibalized in medium term. Thus we believe overall margins to remain under check despite improvement in legacy business margins. Hence, we have downgraded our P/ E multiple from 16.5x to 15.0x. We have also marginally tweaked our FY24E/ FY25E estimates. The stock is currently trading at 13.5x/ 12.1x FY24E/ FY25E EPS of Rs53.4/ Rs59.5. Based on revised estimates and lower multiple, we maintain BUY with revised TP of Rs892 (earlier Rs931).
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