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Highlights

* Chana prices seen supported as pulses acreage could witness a decline during the forthcoming Kharif season after the Centre opened up tur, urad, and moong imports.

* Government amended the pulses import policy by moving tur, urad and moong from ‘restricted’ to ‘free’ category. ● The Commerce Ministry in a notification said the revision in pulses import policy is with immediate effect and will for the period up to October 31, 2021.

* Further, import consignments of these items with Bill of Lading issued on or before October 31 shall not be allowed by Customs beyond November 30, the notification said.

* “The Open General License (OGL) under the free import policy will enable the traders to quickly import the required quantity of tur, moong and urad to fulfil the shortage of the pulses.

* The current COVID-19 crisis has led to localized partial lockdown in many parts of the country and has raised concerns over supply disruptions in the forthcoming months.

* Chana procurement by NAFED for the crop harvested in Marketing season 2021-22 has started in March, 2021 from most of the key states while in Rajasthan procurement has started from April 01, 2021.

* The Chana crop production in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh may be lower than last year. However, in Gujarat production is likely to increase

* Chana import for 2020-21 (Apr-Jan) stood at 2.76 lakh tonnes as against 3.48 lakh tonnes imported during the corresponding period of the previous year. Import and export in month of January 2021 reported 0.41 lakh tonne and 0.10 lakh tonnes, respectively.

* Apart from Chana, 10.65 lakh tonnes of Masur and 3.39 lakh tonnes of Urad & Moong have been imported during 2020-21 (Apr-Jan) and total Pulses import stood at 23.20 lakh tonnes.

* According to the latest report of Australian department of Agriculture (ABARES), Australian Bengal gram acreage is forecasted to increase by 93% to 5.08 Lakh hectares in 2020-21. Bengal gram production is forecasted at 7.55 lakh tonnes in 2020-21, 169% higher than last year’s production of 2.81 Lakh tonnes. Acreage and production in 2019-20 were lower in Australia due to drought.

* In the marketing year 2020-21 (Apr-Mar), total arrivals of Chana have increased 51% so far from the same in the corresponding period a year ago.

CHANA

The adjacent price curve indicates the price trend of Chana since the last decade of the current marketing year. The prices are observed to be at peak during August-September due to lack of availability and declining from March due to harvesting of Rabi crop. This year the price has shown a slightly different trajectory as the entire market is grappling with the COVID 10 supply disruption and an uneven demand pattern necessitated by high demand for protein diets. Currently, the prices have been on the rise and are likely to continue till the sowing of kharif pulses begins and gives clear direction

The Chana Spot market price variation study indicates that the price's volatility remains stable. Currently, the prices are expected to consolidate in the range of Rs. 54000 and rise to Rs. 62500 per MT for the next couple of months. The analysis of the price movement in spot (Delhi), reveals that the prices tend to peak in the month of January to April primarily due to increased cyclical demand from the dal milling industry. Free import duty on major pulses that is also likely to have an impact on Chana prices in India.

BUY CHANA AROUND 5250-5200 SL BELOW 4950 TGT 5850-6180. NCDEX

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