01-01-1970 12:00 AM | Source: Accord Fintech
Benchmarks likely to make weak start ahead of Q4 GDP data
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Indian markets rose to nearly one-month closing highs on Monday as the bulls continued to dominate Dalal Street for the third day running. Today, markets are likely to make weak start amid a steep rise in oil prices. Oil prices continued to rise in early Asian trade on Tuesday after the European Union said it had agreed to cut 90 per cent of oil imports from Russia by the end of this year. Brent Crude futures were above $122 a barrel this morning. Investors will be eyeing GDP numbers for the fourth quarter of the previous fiscal year (2021-22) to be out later in the day.  As per the expectations, India's economy likely slowed in the fourth quarter and is expected to grow between 3.5-5.5 percent. Some cautiousness may come as domestic ratings agency India Ratings said the GST has not helped states achieve the key objective of boosting their tax revenue. The rating agency said that the data does not point to any benefits to the states in the last five years since the implementation of GST (Goods and Services Tax). However, some support may come as Ajay Seth, secretary at the department of economic affairs, said India's inflation should ease in the coming months following steps taken by the Union government and as global prices coming off in May will have a salutary impact. Traders may be taking encouragement with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement that India trusted its scientists, doctors, youth during the COVID-19 pandemic and did not become a problem but was a solution-giver for the world. He also said that coming out of the negative impact of Covid, India has become one of the fastest growing economies in the world. There will be some buzz in NBFCs stocks as Crisil Ratings said stressed assets of non-banking financial companies- microfinance institutions (NBFC-MFIs) are estimated to have declined to around 14 per cent as of March 2022 from close to 22 per cent in September 2021, helped by revival in the economy and limited impact of the omicron variant. Sugar industry stocks will be in focus as Ind-Ra said the country’s sugar exports are expected to increase to around 9-10 million tonnes in sugar season 2022, beginning October, following lower production in Brazil due to adverse weather conditions. There will be some reaction in logistics stocks with report that the government may set a more ambitious target to reduce the country’s elevated logistics costs, long blamed for eroding its export competitiveness, as it inches closer to finalising a national logistics policy. Power stocks will be in limelight as India plans to reduce power generation from least 81 coal-fired utilities over the next four years, the federal power ministry said in a letter, in an effort to replace expensive thermal generation with cheaper green energy sources.

The US markets were shut for trading on Monday on account of Memorial Day. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Tuesday as investors remain optimistic on bets of a possible slowdown in US monetary tightening and easing of the pandemic-related restrictions in China.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended higher for a third straight session on Monday, following positive global cues due to China easing Covid curbs. Some local factors helping the mood include early arrival of monsoon in Kerala raising hopes of a favourable impact on agri crops. After the gap-up start, the benchmarks inched gradually higher, as traders took encouragement with RBI data showing that India’s forex reserves increased by $4.23 billion to $597.509 billion for the week ended May 20 on the back of a high accretion of core currency assets. Some support also came in with report that State finances showed improvement in 2021-22 as the consolidated gross fiscal deficit (GFD) of 26 states was lower by 31.5 per cent than a year ago. Sentiments were positive, after Prime Minister Narendra Modi said his government has tried to ensure that farmers in the country are not affected even though the prices of fertilisers in international markets have soared due to the pandemic and ongoing war in Ukraine. Sentiments remained up-beat in late afternoon deals, taking support from minister of state for commerce and industry Anupriya Patel’s statement that India is fast-tracking negotiations for proposed free trade agreements with certain developed countries like the UK as well as with the European Union, and maybe by this year end, the government would be able to give a final shape to few of these pacts. The markets also took support from the annual report data showed the size of the Reserve Bank's balance sheet, which is reflective of activities carried out by it in pursuance of currency issue function as well as monetary policy and reserve management, has increased by 8.46 per cent during 2021-22. It said the increase on the asset side was due to rise in foreign investments, domestic investments, gold, and loans and advances by 4.28 per cent, 11.67 per cent, 30.07 per cent and 54.53 per cent, respectively. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 1041.08 points or 1.90% to 55,925.74 and the CNX Nifty was up by 308.95 points or 1.89% to 16,661.40.

 

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