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Retails, mobility data slump amid covid resurgence

In continuation to our monthly series, we are monitoring mobility and retail demand trends as we believe both these data sets have a lead-lag effect. For AprMay’21, the data makes more sense on MoM basis due to negligible base in FY20. Key takeaways for Apr’21: a) global mobility data trends remain on the upward trajectory across regions post covid (e.g. UK, Italy, US – charts 1-4); however, India mobility data nosedived due to covid-induced lockdowns in states (e.g. Karnataka, Delhi, West Bengal); b) overall, Eastern and Southern states were most impacted (~50% decline in mobility data), while drop in Western and Northern states were relatively better ~35-40% (charts 7-10); and c) in domestic retails, PV segment declined 59% MoM while 2W fell 53% MoM impacted due to lockdowns.

Key observations

India’s state-wise retail analysis indicates retail sales have decreased across commercial segment (CV) categories on MoM basis (down ~66%) as economic activity moderated and freight rates declined. Recovery in investment spending on key segments (e.g. road, infrastructure) could trigger as demand boost. Registrations for tractors too slumped (by ~57%) as financiers focus on collection efficiency, however; improvement in rural cashflow (aided by both superior winter harvest and rising usage in infrastructure-related haulage activities) is likely to aid demand. Retail registrations were also impacted by limited operations at RTOs due to the lockdowns in various states (tables 5-9). States that held elections recently (Apr’21) have witnessed sharp drop in demand terms vis-à-vis peers.

In India, workplace mobility data, after witnessing many ebbs and flows of improvements and stagnation between May-Dec’20, saw improvement (up to Mar’21) across most regions. However, as covid cases rose, mobility stats nosedived in the most impacted states by >50%. May’21 data reflects all regions are down between 30-40% YoY with South and East India being worst hit, witnessing delayed covid surge. On a positive side, Gujarat and Chattisgarh are recovering the fastest. Overall, traffic on an aggregate basis dropped 45% in workplace mobility, while transit mobility fell 49% YoY with South being most affected

Observations on OEM-wise market share trends: 1) Market share gains (MoM basis) by Tata Motors (170bps MoM) at the expense of Maruti Suzuki (349bps) was likely due to traction of SUVs; 2) in 2W space, Hero Motocorp made strong gains in market share (up 1,230bps MoM respectively), while HMSI / Yamaha lost 610bps / 180bps respectively likely due to stronger motorcycle demand in North India due to marriage season and lower registrations in urban markets; and 3) tractor segment also witnessed Mahindra making gains (up 330bps MoM) at the expense of Escorts (down 140bps)

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