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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.01% at 59901 as the dollar rose as weaker-than-expected U.S. economic growth in the first quarter is not likely to deter the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates next week. The advance estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) showed a 1.1% annualized rate during the period. The economy grew at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter. Core personal consumption expenditure prices rose 4.9% in the first three months of the year, higher than the consensus figure of 4.7% and up from the fourth quarter figure. A separate report from the Labor Department showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000 for the week ending April 22. The report suggested a still tight labor market and also underpinned next week's rate increase expectations. Switzerland exported more gold to mainland China in March than in any month since July 2022, but shipments to India and Turkey fell from February's level, Swiss customs data showed. China's gold production jumped 6.9% in the first quarter of 2023 recovering to pre-pandemic levels, partly spurred by a jump in demand for gold and jewellery as investors sought safe havens away from jittery financial markets. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.76% to settle at 14899 while prices are up 8 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59533 and below same could see a test of 59164 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60285, a move above could see prices testing 60668.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59164-60668.
* Gold settled flat after US dollar gains after GDP and jobless claims data
* U.S. GDP rises less than expected
* U.S. jobless claims fall


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.19% at 73959 as risk sentiment was hampered by concerns over the health of the global banking sector. Investors came to terms that recent GDP data will not prevent the Federal Reserve from raising rates next week. The US economy grew less than expected in Q1 as business investment slowed down, residential investment declined and private inventory contributed negatively to the growth. Still, consumer spending remained resilient, increasing by 3.7% and the personal consumption expenditures price index, an inflation measure that the Federal Reserve follows closely, increased by 4.2%, ahead of estimates. Risk sentiment was hampered by concerns over the health of the global banking sector after a Bloomberg report revealed Republic Bank was considering a significant divestment as part of its rescue plan. In the meantime, slow economic data and evidence of easing inflation continued to support bets on three rate cuts from the Fed by the end of the year. Besides higher demand for precious metals, a report from Ember showed wind and solar energy accounted for a record-breaking 12% of electricity generation in 2022, underscoring the strong need for silver as an industrial input. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -17.23% to settle at 4957 while prices are up 140 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 73169 and below same could see a test of 72378 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 74645, a move above could see prices testing 75330.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 72378-75330.
* "Silver gains as risk sentiment hampered by concerns over global banking sector
* The US economy grew less than expected in Q1 as business investment slowed down
* Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.52% at 6140 as jitters about a U.S. economic downturn overshadowed a larger than expected fall in U.S. crude inventories. Russian Deputy Prime Alexander Novak said that OPEC+ group of leading oil producers does not see the need for further oil output cuts despite lower-than-expected Chinese demand, though the organisation is always able to tweak its policy. He also said that Russia reached the targeted level of its oil output this month after announcing production cuts of 500,000 barrels per day, or 5% of its oil output, until the year-end. Russia is part of the OPEC+ group of producer countries which announced combined cuts of around 1.16 million bpd in a surprise move earlier this month that the United States described as unwise. U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories fell more than expected last week, as demand for the motor fuel picked up ahead of the peak summer driving season, Energy Information Administration data showed. Crude inventories fell by 5.1 million barrels in the week to April 21 to 460.9 million barrels, far exceeding expectations for a 1.5 million-barrel drop. Gasoline stocks fell by 2.4 million barrels to 221.1 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with expectations for a 900,000-barrel drop. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 6.63% to settle at 9994 while prices are down -95 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6083 and below same could see a test of 6027 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6185, a move above could see prices testing 6231.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6027-6231.
* Crude oil dropped amid jitters about a U.S. economic downturn
* U.S. economic growth slowed by more than expected in the first quarter.
* Russia says OPEC+ sees no need for further oil output cuts
 

Natural gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3.13% at 194.4 amid steady demand over the next two weeks despite a slightly bigger-than-expected storage build last week. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants remained on track to hit a record high for a second month in a row after Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas exited an eight-month outage in February. US utilities added 79 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 21, 2023, more than market expectations of a 75 bcf increase, as mild weather kept heating demand low. That compares with an increase of 42 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 43 bcf. Last week's increase boosted stockpiles to 2.009 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 525 bcf higher than last year at this time and 365 bcf above the five-year average of 1,644 bcf. At 2.009 tcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 14.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, up from a record 13.2 bcfd in March. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -15.03% to settle at 30674 while prices are up 5.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 189.3 and below same could see a test of 184.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 197.5, a move above could see prices testing 200.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 184.2-200.6.
* Natural gas gains amid steady demand over the next two weeks
* The amount of gas flowing LNG export plants remained on track to hit a record high for a second month
* US utilities added 79 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage


Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.41% at 742.2 after prices dropped on concerns about weak demand. Investors remained underwhelmed by purchasing activity from Chinese manufacturers after the country's reopening. The Yanghsan copper premium has more than halved since mid-March to $23 per tonne, indicating supplies were ample amid muted demand for physical deliveries. In the meantime, slow growth in the United States and expectations of tighter policy by the Fed hurt projections of stateside demand. Keeping a floor under the prices, data from the London Metal Exchange showed inventories decreased to 56,000 tonnes, the lowest since 2005. Also, Chile's state-owned Codelco said that output in 2023 is estimated to sink as much as 7% after the 10.6% decline in 2022. The world's refined copper market had a 103,000 tonne surplus in January, compared with a 10,000 tonnes surplus the previous month, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output was 2.27 million tonnes and consumption was 2.16 million tonnes, the ICSG said. China's industrial firms' profits shrank at a slightly slower pace in January-March but the decline remained in the double-digits as the economy struggled to fully recover despite the country's exit from its zero-COVID policy. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.36% to settle at 5491 while prices are up 3.05 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 734.7 and below same could see a test of 727.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 746.4, a move above could see prices testing 750.5.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 727.1-750.5.
* Copper gains on short covering after prices dropped on concerns about weak demand
* Investors remained underwhelmed by purchasing activity from Chinese manufacturers
* The Yanghsan copper premium has more than halved since mid-March to $23 per tonne, indicating supplies were ample.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.08% at 236.35 on concerns around weak demand in China and a steady U.S. dollar. Markets are also expected to tread cautiously ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week. Top consumer China imported 12,785 mt of refined zinc in March, down 40.10% on the year. On the supply side, recent data showed that the country's refined zinc output increased 55,300 mt or 11.03% MoM and 12.26% YoY to 556,800 mt in March, as expected. Meanwhile, LME zinc inventories remained close to levels not seen since 1989. Last year's shutdowns of some European zinc smelters due to soaring power prices became a key driver behind low LME stocks. The smelter bottleneck was severe enough to generate a global supply shortfall of more than 300,000 tonnes, according to ILZSG. The Bank of China Research Institute released the Economic and Financial Outlook Report for the Second Quarter of 2023 on April 3. According to the report, in the first quarter of 2023, as the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic subsided, and the economic stabilisation policies were deployed, China’s economy continued to recover. China’s GDP was expected to grow by about 4.1% in the first quarter. Zinc ingot stocks in the Shanghai bonded zone were 2,000 mt, flat compared to April 14. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.35% to settle at 3752 while prices are up 0.2 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 233.8 and below same could see a test of 231.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 237.8, a move above could see prices testing 239.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 231.1-239.1.
* Zinc settled flat on concerns around weak demand
* China imported 12,785 mt of refined zinc in March, down 40.10% on the year
* Markets are also expected to tread cautiously ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week.



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.39% at 206.35 on worries of higher U.S. rates, a weaker-than-expected Chinese demand rebound, and a risk-off sentiment amid issues in the banking sector. China's consumer demand recovery needs time to pick up due to the "scarring effect" of COVID-19 and the central bank will consolidate its financing support for the real economy, officials from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said. The PBOC expects consumer price inflation to pick up later this year but there is no basis for long term deflation or inflation in the country, Zou Lan, head of the monetary policy department at PBOC, said at a news conference in Beijing. Global primary aluminium output rose 0.5% year on year in March to 5.772 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Some Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed to pay global producers premiums in the April-June quarter of 2023 that are as much as 53% higher than the previous quarter, reflecting higher overseas prices. The Japanese buyers will pay premiums of between $125-$130 per tonne for shipments in April to June. Severe power shortages in China's southwestern Yunnan province are likely to cut aluminium production in the country's fourth-largest producing province. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 7.14% to settle at 3375 while prices are down -0.8 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 204.6 and below same could see a test of 202.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 207.5, a move above could see prices testing 208.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 202.7-208.5.
* Aluminum dropped amid weaker-than-expected Chinese demand rebound
* China's consumer demand recovery needs time to pick up due to the "scarring effect" of COVID-19
* The central bank will consolidate its financing support for the real economy, officials from the PBOC said


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.21% at 972.8 as some short covering is expected in wake of weaker production outlook. Forecast of above normal temperature during Apr-May is likely to affect the sowing activities adversely that will support the firmness in prices. Mentha exports during Apr-Feb 2023, dropped by 10.67 percent to 2,227.55 tonnes as compared to 2,493.53 tonnes exported during Apr-Feb 2022. In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 233.21 tonnes in January 2023 showing a drop of 9.62%. In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 157.90 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 33.49%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -3.3 Rupees to end at 1152.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settle at 696 while prices are up 2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 968.9 and below same could see a test of 965.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 975.7, a move above could see prices testing 978.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 965.1-978.7.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -3.3 Rupees to end at 1152.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gains as some short covering is expected in wake of weaker production outlook
* Forecast of above normal temperature during Apr-May is likely to affect the sowing activities adversely that will support the prices
* In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 157.90 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 33.49%.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.01% at 6670 on profit booking after prices gained as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric stocks were soaked in rain water in Guntur, Krishna and NTR Districts due to the rainfall. Arrivals of new crop has improved as about 7-8 lakh bags touched the Nizamabad market so far wherein about 7 lakh bags were reported in Sangli. Market is running with huge stocks and stockists are trying to release their stocks on every rise in prices. Turmeric exports during Apr-Feb 2023, rose by 10.42 percent at 151,298.89 tonnes as compared to 137,017.23 tonnes exported during Apr- Feb 2022. In February 2023 around 14,806.30 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,484.25 tonnes in January 2023 showing a rise of 18.60%. In February 2023 around 14,806.30 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,358.22 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 42.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6691.3 Rupees gained 18.65 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.87% to settle at 12875 while prices are down -68 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6624 and below same could see a test of 6580 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6728, a move above could see prices testing 6788.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6580-6788.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking amid rise in arrivals
* Turmeric stocks were soaked in rain water in Guntur, Krishna and NTR Districts due to the rainfall.
* Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6691.3 Rupees gained 18.65 Rupees.
 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 5.81% at 43045 on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. For the jeera crop, moist or cloudy weather impacts the quality of the seed, which often turns blackish, indicating spoilage. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 1640.3 Rupees to end at 42100.45 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.91% to settle at 6789 while prices are up 2365 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 41600 and below same could see a test of 40155 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 43805, a move above could see prices testing 44565.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 40155-44565.
* Jeera crossed 43000 level to on crop worries
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers.
* Cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 1640.3 Rupees to end at 42100.45 Rupees per 100 kg. 

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