IGI Logo

Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.07% at 46672 as prices were steady as investors steered clear of making big bets ahead of expected cues from the U.S. Federal Reserve on the next step in its tapering strategy. The Bank of Japan confirmed that it would continue with its ultraeasy monetary policy as the country continues to fight coronavirus outbreaks caused by the delta variant. Worries over a possible default by China’s No. 2 property developer, Evergrande, drove some safe-haven inflows into gold over the past couple of sessions, but those jitters have since eased following a deal with bondholders. Russia produced 173.99 tonnes of gold between January and July, down from the 176.30 tonnes it produced in the same period in 2020, the finance ministry said. The country also produced 524.28 tonnes of silver during the same period this year, up from 514.42 tonnes in January-July 2020, the ministry said. Swiss exports of gold to India jumped to a five-month high in August while shipments to China fell, Swiss customs data showed. Switzerland is the world's largest bullion refining centre and transit hub and its data give insight into global demand trends. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.42% to settled at 6797 while prices up 34 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46564 and below same could see a test of 46457 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 46770, a move above could see prices testing 46869.

Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 46457-46869.
Gold prices were steady as investors steered clear of making big bets ahead of expected cues from the Fed on the next step in its tapering strategy.
BOJ confirmed that it would continue with its ultraeasy monetary policy as the country continues to fight coronavirus outbreaks caused by the delta variant.
Russia's Jan – July gold output at 174 tonnes – finance ministry

 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.23% at 61180 on recent concerns about global economic growth, or more specifically, a Chinese economic slowdown. U.S. home sales fell slightly more than expected in August as supply remained tight, but there are signs that the sharp acceleration in house prices and the COVID-19 pandemic-fueled demand have probably run their course. Still, the housing market remains hot. The report from the National Association of Realtors showed the smallest share of first-time homebuyers in more than 2-1/2 years and houses continuing to be snapped up after only 17 days on the market. The U.S. current account deficit increased to a 14-year high in the second quarter as businesses boosted imports to replenish depleted inventories amid robust consumer spending. The Commerce Department said the current account deficit, which measures the flow of goods, services and investments into and out of the country, rose 0.5% to $190.3 billion last quarter. That was the largest shortfall since the second quarter of 2007. Data for the first quarter was revised to show a $189.4 billion gap, instead of $195.7 billion as previously reported. The Bank of Japan offered a bleaker view on exports and output as Asian factory shutdowns caused supply bottlenecks, but maintained its optimism that robust global growth will keep the economic recovery on track. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.03% to settled at 11836 while prices up 741 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 60728 and below same could see a test of 60275 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 61517, a move above could see prices testing 61853.

Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 60275-61853.
Silver prices rose on recent concerns about global economic growth, or more specifically, a Chinese economic slowdown.
U.S. home sales fell slightly more than expected in August as supply remained tight
U.S. current account deficit widens to 14-year high in second quarter


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.23% at 5324 buoyed by data showing a drop in U.S. crude stockpiles last week due to the impact of recent storms. U.S. crude inventories last week fell by 3.5 million barrels to 413.96 million barrels, the lowest since October 2018, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed. East Coast refinery utilization rates last week rose to 93%, the highest since May 2019, according to the data. OPEC and its allies struggled again to pump enough oil in August to meet global demand as it recovers from the coronavirus pandemic, potentially adding to upward pressures on oil prices. Several OPEC+ members such as Nigeria, Angola and Kazakhstan have struggled in recent months to raise output due to years of under-investment or large maintenance work that has been delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic. U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, as numerous refineries and offshore drilling facilities remained shut following Hurricane Ida. Crude stocks fell by 6.1 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 17. Gasoline inventories fell by 432,000 barrels and distillate stocks fell by 2.7 million barrels, the data showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 23.76% to settled at 5147 while prices up 116 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5249 and below same could see a test of 5174 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5371, a move above could see prices testing 5418.
 

Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 5174-5418.
Crude oil gained buoyed by data showing a drop in U.S. crude stockpiles last week due to the impact of recent storms.
U.S. crude stocks drop to lowest since Oct 2018 – EIA
OPEC+ struggles to pump more oil to meet rising demand


Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.02% at 356.7 amid continued strong interest in U.S. liquefied natural gas exports from soaring global gas prices. However upside seen limited on growing expectations the United States will have enough gas in storage for the upcoming winter heating season. U.S. gas stockpiles were about 7.1% below their five-year normal for this time of year. The storage situation was much worse in Europe where prices have soared to record highs primarily because stockpiles in some countries were 20% or more below normal for this time of year. Despite reductions at several plants this month, data provider Refinitiv said the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants was only down to an average of 10.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in September from 10.5 bcfd in August. Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to an average of 90.7 bcfd so far in September from 92.0 bcfd in August, due mostly to Ida-related losses along the Gulf Coast. That compares with a monthly record high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. About 0.6 bcfd, or 25%, of gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico remained shut-in since Ida hit Louisiana on Aug. 29, government data showed. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -31.23% to settled at 2425 while prices up 3.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 352.7 and below same could see a test of 348.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 361.4, a move above could see prices testing 366.

Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 348.6-366.
Natural gas rose amid continued strong interest in U.S. liquefied natural gas exports from soaring global gas prices.
However upside seen limited on growing expectations the United States will have enough gas in storage for the upcoming winter heating season.
U.S. gas stockpiles were about 7.1% below their five-year normal for this time of year.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 2.69% at 714.7 driven by easing default fears around property giant China Evergrande after its main unit said it would to pay some bond interest due later this week. Risk sentiment was also supported by the People’s Bank of China injecting more liquidity into the market to replace certain expiring loans. China stood pat on its benchmark lending rate for corporate and household loans for the 17th straight month at its September fixing on Wednesday, matching market expectations. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.85%. The five-year LPR remained at 4.65%.Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR. The five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages. Chile's state-owned Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, said on September 15 that it had reached an agreement on a labour contract with a union representing workers in the Salvador branch in northern Chile. The company said in a statement that the miner and the Benito Tapia Tapia No. 6 labour union have signed a 36-month agreement that includes a signing bonus of $5,200 and production-related benefits. China copper ore and concentrate imports in August stood at 1,885,984 mt, down 0.06% on the month but up 19.24% on the year. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -29.22% to settled at 2093 while prices up 18.75 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 704 and below same could see a test of 693.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 721, a move above could see prices testing 727.3.

Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 693.3-727.3.
Copper prices advanced driven by easing default fears around property giant China Evergrande after its main unit said it would to pay some bond interest
China keeps lending benchmark LPR unchanged for 17th straight month
China copper ore and concentrate imports in August stood at 1,885,984 mt, down 0.06% on the month but up 19.24% on the year.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.7% at 258.15 as some smelters in Yunnan were asked to reduce the production by 20-30%. The supply side has been experiencing disruptions including intensifying power rationing. The prices of coal kept rising on tight supply, pushing up zinc. Canadian miner Teck Resources Ltd cut its forecast for annual refined zinc production, citing an impact on its operations from wildfires in British Columbia. The company projected refined zinc production for 2021 to be in the range of 285,000 tonnes to 290,000 tonnes, down from a previous estimate of 290,000 tonnes to 300,000 tonnes. Production in Guangxi and Jiangsu has cut output due to power rationing. The refined zinc output is expected to increase 11,800 mt on the month to 520,700 mt in September, but the output is likely to lower 2,000 mt compared with the original estimate. Zinc ingot inventory has been declining since mid-March. The weekly inventory across the seven markets totalled 117,200 mt as of September 17, down 55.84% from March 15. The operating rates at downstream plants trended lower amid power rationing and the dual control of energy consumption, coupled with weak exports. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -17.59% to settled at 815 while prices up 1.8 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 256.1 and below same could see a test of 253.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 260, a move above could see prices testing 261.7.

Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 253.9-261.7.
Zinc prices gained as some smelters in Yunnan were asked to reduce the production by 20-30%.
The supply side has been experiencing disruptions including intensifying power rationing.
Canada's Teck cuts refined zinc output forecast on wildfire impact


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.47% at 1461.2 as supply fears resurfaced after an Indonesian government official said the country was looking at taxes on exports of the stainless steel ingredient. Investment minister Bahlil Lahadalia said Indonesia is exploring the possibility of levying an export tax on nickel products with less than 70% nickel content to drive expansion of the country's domestic processing industry. Stocks of nickel in LME-registered warehouses have dropped 35% since April to 171,714 tonnes. Cancelled warrants -- metal earmarked for delivery -- at 35% and one company holding large amounts of warrants are also fuelling concern about a tight LME market. This pushed the premium for cash metal over the three-month contract to $32 a tonne, up from $15. Global nickel mine production is expected to grow by 6.8% to reach 2,427.4 thousand tonnes (kt) in 2021, after registering an estimated 4.2% decline to 2,272kt in 2020, owing to COVID-19-related lockdowns and restrictions. Fitch Solutions expects nickel mine production to grow strongly between 2021 and 2023, owing to less disruption from Covid-19 and amid a high price environment. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -21.3% to settled at 898 while prices up 21.2 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1442.4 and below same could see a test of 1423.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1474.6, a move above could see prices testing 1488.

Trading Ideas:

Nickel trading range for the day is 1423.6-1488.
Nickel rose as supply fears resurfaced after an Indonesian government official said the country was looking at taxes on exports of the stainless steel ingredient.
Stocks of nickel in LME-registered warehouses have dropped 35% since April
Global nickel production to recover by 6.8% in 2021


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.71% at 232.45 as there is rumour that aluminium smelters in Yunnan have been urged to bring down their production by another 10%, coupled with rumours of power rationing in Ningxia. The market feared further declining in aluminium supply, sending the aluminium contract back to the upward trajectory. China's imports of unwrought aluminium alloy stood at 98,500 mt in August, down 32.3% on a yearly basis, but up 12.0% on the month. The imports totalled 671,600 mt from January to August, a year-on-year drop of 14.2%.China’s exports of unwrought aluminium alloy stood at 9,200 mt in August, a year-on-year decline of 44.2%, but a month on month increase of 0.1%. The exports totalled 102,200 mt from January to August, a year-on-year drop of 21.2%.Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum Manufacturing Co Ltd in central China’s Henan province said primary aluminium output affected by floods would resume by the middle of November. Data showed that China's social inventories of aluminium across eight consumption areas rose 15,000 mt on the week to 766,000 mt as of September 16. Increases were mostly contributed by Wuxi, Nanhai and Gongyi. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.25% to settled at 1950 while prices up 3.9 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 230.6 and below same could see a test of 228.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 234, a move above could see prices testing 235.5.

Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 228.7-235.5.
Aluminium rose as there is rumour that aluminium smelters in Yunnan have been urged to bring down their production by another 10%
China’s imports of unwrought aluminium alloy up 12% mom in Aug, exports up 0.1% mom
Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum Manufacturing Co Ltd in central China’s Henan province said primary aluminium output affected by floods would resume by the middle of November.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.89% at 919.1 on short covering after prices dropped after the news that US House Democrats have proposed a tax hike on tobacco and nicotine to help fund their $3.5 trillion spending plan. The measure may increase current levies on cigarettes, cigars and roll-your-own and smokeless tobacco, according to a plan summary. They have also proposed new taxes on vaping products. Pressure also seen after the news that the Food and Drug Administration has proposed a ban on menthol cigarettes, suggesting it may prompt 923,000 U.S. smokers to quit, according to one study. Goldman Sachs covering the beverage and tobacco sectors, pointed to the potential federal menthol ban as another area of concern for retailers. This year US FDA announced it is taking steps to ban menthol as a characterizing flavor in cigarettes, and ban all characterizing flavors — including menthol — in cigars within the next year. In Goldman Sachs' Nicotine Nuggets survey, nearly 70 percent of retailers said they expected cigarette volume declines to accelerate in 2021. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 28.6 Rupees to end at 1043.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -29.14% to settled at 518 while prices up 8.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 913.2 and below same could see a test of 907.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 924, a move above could see prices testing 928.9.

Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 907.3-928.9.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 28.6 Rupees to end at 1043.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil gained on short covering after prices droppedafter the news that US House Democrats have proposed a tax hike on tobacco and nicotine.
The measure may increase current levies on cigarettes, cigars and roll-your-own and smokeless tobacco, according to a plan summary.
Goldman Sachs covering the beverage and tobacco sectors, pointed to the potential federal menthol ban as another area of concern for retailers.


Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 1.85% at 6000 as India's soybean production may decline sharply in the marketing year 2021-22 (October-September) as erratic rainfall during the sowing season affected yields. A poor soybean crop could increase India's reliance on edible oil imports and endanger its exports of soybean meal in the coming months. India's soybean production in MY 2021-22 is expected to be around 10.8 million mt, nearly 16.6% lower on the year. India harvested 12.9 million mt of soybean in MY 2020-21, according to ministry of agriculture. Exports of soyameal dropped by 58.93 per cent in August in view of high prices that made the commodity lose its competitive edge in the global market. According to India's ministry of agriculture, planted area under soybean was at 12.2 million hectares in 2021-22, slightly higher than 12.1 million hectares in 2020-21. Argentine farmers have sold a total 30 million tonnes of soybeans from the 2020/21 crop, after registering sales over a seven-day period of 650,200 tonnes, the Ministry of Agriculture said. The sales volume of one of Argentina's main crops lagged that of the previous season, when by the equivalent point some 31.6 million tonnes of the oilseed had been traded, the ministry said in report with data through Sept. 15. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 132 Rupees to 6409 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.19% to settled at 35335 while prices up 109 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5859 and below same could see a test of 5718 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6089, a move above could see prices testing 6178.

Trading Ideas:
Soyabean trading range for the day is 5718-6178.
Soyabean gained as India's soybean production may decline sharply in the marketing year 2021-22
India’s Aug’2021 soymeal exports declined by 81%, Oil meal export down by 4%.
U.S. September 2020/21 Soybean end stocks estimate at 185 million bushels: USDA
At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  132 Rupees to 6409 Rupees per 100 kgs.


Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.54% at 1294.5 as oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt as soyabean production was affected by the patchy rains in the key producing States of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, respectively. Favorable weather over the weekend boosted U.S. harvest, while exports remain capped by terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast that continue to struggle with power outages and hurricane-led damage as the country heads into its busiest export season. India's vegetable oil imports are likely to contract for the second straight year, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said. Imports in 2020/21 marketing year ending Oct. 31 could fall to 13.1 million tonnes, the lowest in six years, from last year's 13.2 million, B.V. Mehta, SEA executive director, said in a virtual conference. Palm oil imports, however, could rise 8% from a year ago to 7.8 million tonnes, he said, as India allowed imports of refined palm oil and cut the import tax on crude palm oil. India's export of oilmeal, used as animal feed, declined 4 percent to 1,64,831 tonne in August from the year-ago period, in view of domestic shortage of the key oilmeal products. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1329.5 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.03% to settled at 26575 while prices up 6.9 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1289 and below same could see a test of 1284 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1302, a move above could see prices testing 1310.

Trading Ideas:
Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1284-1310.
Ref soyoil prices gained as oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt as soyabean production was affected
India’s Sept edible oil stocks at ports and pipelines rose 3.24 percent mom: SEA
U.S. August soybean oil stock seen at 1.668 billion pounds: NOPA
At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1329.5 Rupees per 10 kgs.


Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.48% at 1118 underpinned by signs of slowing production and a recovery in rival soyoil prices. Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association estimated Malaysia's production during Sept. 1-20 fell 4.5% from the same period in August. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Sep. 1-20 rose 36.7 percent to 1,070,096 tonnes from 783,027 tonnes shipped during Aug. 1-20. Malaysia's palm oil exports during Sept. 1-20 rose 38% to 1,089,071 tonnes from the same week in August, cargo surveyor Amspec Agri said. However, this was slower than a 54% monthly rise in Sept. 1-15. Malaysia maintained its October export tax for crude palm oil at 8%, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed. The world's second-largest palm exporter calculated a reference price of 4,472.46 ringgit ($1,068.18) per tonne for October, up from 4,255.52 ringgit in September. India has cut base import taxes on palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil, a government order showed, as the world's biggest vegetable oil buyer tries to cool near-record price rises. The reduction in taxes could bring down prices of the edible oils in India and boost consumption, effectively increasing overseas buying by the south Asian country. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 0.6 Rupees to end at 1136.8 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.32% to settled at 4672 while prices up 5.3 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1113 and below same could see a test of 1107.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1126, a move above could see prices testing 1133.9.

Trading Ideas:
CPO trading range for the day is 1107.9-1133.9.
Crude palm oil gains underpinned by signs of slowing production and a recovery in rival soyoil prices.
Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association estimated Malaysia's production during Sept. 1-20 fell 4.5% from the same period in August.
Malaysia’s September 1-20 palm oil exports shoots up
In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 0.6 Rupees to end at 1136.8 Rupees.


Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.03% at 8607 after it took several measures to boost domestic supply and curb hoarding. Statistics Canada cut its canola production estimate to a 13-year low, due to drought. Prices seen supported as Government has increased the Mustard seed MSP from 4650.00 to 5050 i.e Rs.400 per quintal for RMS 2022-23. Support also seen amid regular demand from the stockists and lowering all India arrivals. In their August report, the IGC lowered their forecast for the world rapeseed production to 70.9 million tons (-2.2 compared to July and 72.1 compared to 2020/21). The rapeseed production in Canada will be 16 million tons (-2.8 and 18.7), 4.5 million tons in Australia (4.2 and 4.1), 2.8 million tons in Ukraine (2.7 and 2.7). USDA estimates Canada rapeseed production for marketing year 2021/22 at 16.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 4.2 mmt (21 percent) from last month, 3.0 mmt (16 percent) from last year, and 20 percent below the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 8.7 million hectares, down 3 percent from last month, but 4 percent above last year, and roughly equivalent to the 5-year average. The month-to-month decrease in area is due to the expectation of weather-related abandonment with prospects for hay being the best use. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 141.6 Rupees to end at 8818.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.28% to settled at 43600 while prices down -3 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 8553 and below same could see a test of 8499 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8648, a move above could see prices testing 8689.

Trading Ideas:
Rmseed trading range for the day is 8499-8689.
Mustard seed dropped after it took several measures to boost domestic supply and curb hoarding.
Statistics Canada cut its canola production estimate to a 13-year low, due to drought.
Government has increased the Mustard seed MSP from 4650.00 to 5050 i.e Rs.400 per quintal for RMS 2022-23.
In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 141.6 Rupees to end at 8818.5 Rupees per 100 kg.



Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.52% at 7310 amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand. Pressure seen as the areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season. However downside seen limited on short covering following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. Turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. India is on course to having a normal monsoon, which will recharge the country’s main water reservoirs just enough, and ensure that the most important crops for the kharif season have normal sowing. This is good news for agricultural production and food prices. Pressure also seen as the lockdown restrictions were eased the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. According to the statistics of the Department of Commerce, Government of India, the highest number of 1.84 lakh tonnes of turmeric was exported during the last financial year 2020-21. In the first 6 months of 2021, turmeric exports declined by 3% to 77,300 tonnes compared to the same period last year, but could be higher in the coming months. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7203.75 Rupees dropped -6.2 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.12% to settled at 12385 while prices down -38 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7248 and below same could see a test of 7186 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7398, a move above could see prices testing 7486.

Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 7186-7486.
Turmeric dropped amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand.
Pressure seen as the areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season.
However downside seen limited on short covering following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7203.75 Rupees dropped -6.2 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.11% at 14190 as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keep prices under pressure at higher levels. However downside seen limited as the export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin in a big way. With the forecast of normal rains in the western region during September to November, the sowing of cumin seeds in Gujarat and Rajasthan may increase. In 2021 (January-June), the country has exported more than 1.50 lakh tonnes of cumin as compared to 1.3 lakh tonnes in the same period last year. Purchase of cumin seeds from African and Middle East countries will be diverted from other countries to India this year. With Gujarat and Rajasthan being the only producers of cumin in the country, the most impact of Skymet's forecast is visible on the cumin market. The export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin in a big way. However, the freight of container-vessels has increased and the shortage of containers is increasing continuously. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 52.6 Rupees to end at 14362.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1% to settled at 5049 while prices down -160 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14110 and below same could see a test of 14025 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14330, a move above could see prices testing 14465.

Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 14025-14465.
Jeera dropped as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keep prices under pressure at higher levels.
However downside seen limited as the export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin
India's cumin exports will increase due to less supply from Afghanistan-Syrian
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 52.6 Rupees to end at 14362.5 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.28% at 25420 on concern over crop damage in the state due to pink bollworm infestation. The way it is raining in the whole country since last 15 days, it has started damaging the cotton crop. Cotton sown this year is 8% less as compared to last year and this rain has damaged the crop. Production of cotton estimated at 36.22 million bales (of 170 kg each) and production of Jute & Mesta estimated at 9.61 million bales (of 180 kg each). The new cotton crop has begun arriving in northern markets, Karnataka and Telangala with prices of kapas (raw cotton) ruling at least 10 per cent higher than the minimum support price (MSP) levels fixed by the Centre for the new season starting October. The overall crop condition is good as on date and, based on the feedback from the 10 growing States, the yield will be much higher this year and quality very good. The demand is slow as most of the spinning mills have covered their needs till December. If the moisture comes down, demand may improve over the next couple of weeks. In September WASDE report, the USDA projected U.S. production at 18.5 million bales, 1.2 million bales higher than the previous month. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -70 Rupees to end at 26420 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.32% to settled at 1862 while prices up 70 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 25370 and below same could see a test of 25310 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25480, a move above could see prices testing 25530.

Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 25310-25530.
Cotton prices remained supported on concern over crop damage in the state due to pink bollworm infestation.
Cotton sown this year is 8% less as compared to last year and this rain has damaged the crop.
Cotton harvest likely to be delayed amid flooding in Saurashtra region in Gujarat
In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -70 Rupees to end at 26420 Rupees.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaimer