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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.32% at 57279 as robust U.S. economic data was seen as fodder for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high for longer, but caution ahead of the policy meeting put a floor under bullion prices. Physical gold dealers in India offered the steepest discounts in 10 months to lure customers, as a sharp rally in local prices squeezed demand in the world's second-biggest bullion consumer. Gold prices hit an all-time high of 57,125 rupees per 10 grams, forcing dealers to offer discounts of as much as $42 an ounce over official domestic prices, versus a discount of $24 last week. India's budget will be presented on Feb. 1 and it's expected to slash the gold import duty to undercut smugglers. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong in December jumped by about 150% from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Net imports into the world's top gold consumer stood at 42.16 tonnes in December, compared with 16.849 tonnes in November, the data showed. China stepped up its gold production in 2022, with the China Gold Association (CGA) noting an increase of 13.09%, Xinhua News Agency reported. The production climbed by 43.065 tonnes from 2021. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 14.41% to settle at 18556 while prices are down -186 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 57118 and below same could see a test of 56956 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 57402, a move above could see prices testing 57524.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 56956-57524.
* Gold traded in range as robust U.S. economic data was seen as fodder for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high for longer.
* Physical gold dealers in India offered the steepest discounts of as much as $42 an ounce in 10 months to lure customers
* China's net gold imports via Hong Kong more than double in December


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.51% at 68329 as investors assessed a batch of economic data for hints on whether the US economy may be able to achieve a soft landing as the Federal Reserve is set to continue its tightening campaign. Core PCE price inflation fell to a 14-month low on an annual basis, extending the decrease in consumer prices. Meanwhile, the US GDP expanded by 2.9% in the fourth quarter, beating market expectations of a 2.6% increase and underscoring the resilience of the US economy, adding leeway for the Federal Reserve to extend its hawkish momentum. Next big catalysts for the bullion should be big monetary policy events next week, with the Fed decision due on Wednesday and both the BoE and the ECB on Thursday. Markets are currently pricing in major central banks will soon slow the pace of rate increases. Still, money markets expect the Federal Reserve to raise its key rate by a softer 25bps next week and end its tightening campaign at 5% in March before cutting the rate in November, compared to the central bank’s pledge of a 5.25% terminal rate for the whole year. Supply concerns limited the decrease in prices, as COMEX inventories remained under pressure and LBMA stockpiles dropped considerably amid outflows to India. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.08% to settle at 17442 while prices are down -347 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67894 and below same could see a test of 67460 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68844, a move above could see prices testing 69360.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 67460-69360.
* Silver dropped as investors assessed a batch of economic data for hints on whether the US economy may be able to achieve a soft landing
* Core PCE price inflation fell to a 14-month low on an annual basis, extending the decrease in consumer prices.
* The US GDP expanded by 2.9% in the fourth quarter, beating market expectations of a 2.6% increase


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.41% at 6506 as prospects of still strong Russian supply offset better-than-expected Q4 US GDP numbers and hopes of continued demand recovery in China. China’s economic reopening from Covid curbs sparked optimism about a rebound in crude consumption this year, with authorities saying that the number of Covid-related deaths and severe cases in China is now 70% lower than peak levels in early January. On the supply side, OPEC is expected to maintain current oil production levels when they meet next, keeping supply tight. Traders are also tracking Russian flows as more Western sanctions and price caps on Russian petroleum products are set to take effect next month. The International Energy Agency said that lifting Covid 19 restrictions in China is expected to increase global demand to record highs this year. U.S. crude stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) held steady at 371.6 million barrels during the week ended Jan. 20, the first time weekly SPR inventories were unchanged since September 2021, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed. In the prior week ended Jan. 13, crude stocks in SPR fell by just one barrel, according to EIA data. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.27% to settle at 5328 while prices are down -27 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6398 and below same could see a test of 6289 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6678, a move above could see prices testing 6849.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6289-6849.
* Crudeoil dropped as prospects of still strong Russian supply weighed on prices.
* However, better-than-expected Q4 US GDP numbers and hopes of continued demand recovery in China limited downside.
* OPEC is expected to maintain current oil production levels when they meet next, keeping supply tight.


Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -3.55% at 236.7 as milder weather has reduced heating demand and production remains strong. Natural gas production in the seven major onshore producing regions in the Lower 48 states that excludes Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico is estimated to have increased by 7.4 Bcf/d or 8.4% year-over-year for January 2023. In 2022, total US natural gas production is projected to have increased by 4.3 Bcf/d based on EIA data, and reach the highest on record. Also, more gas is set to stay on the domestic market as it may take until February, March, or even later for the Freeport LNG plant to fully restart the operations and production to go back to full capacity. The facility, which shut in a fire on June 8, 2022, said on Monday it had finished repairs and asked US regulators for permission to restart it. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities pulled 91 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Jan. 20, more than the 82-bcf decline forecast in a poll. Recent increases in crude futures to a nine-week high boosted oil's premium over gas to its highest since January 2020. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.01% to settle at 36412 while prices are down -8.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 229.6 and below same could see a test of 222.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 244.9, a move above could see prices testing 253.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 222.5-253.1.
* Natural gas extended losses as milder weather has reduced heating demand and production remains strong.
* Natural gas production in the Lower 48 states the Gulf of Mexico is estimated to have increased by 7.4 Bcf/d or 8.4% year-over-year for January 2023.
* Total US natural gas production is projected to have increased by 4.3 Bcf/d based on EIA data, and reach the highest on record.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.32% at 783.55 on profit booking as investors weighed a batch of economic data ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. However, downside seen limited as hopes grew that economic activities in China would pick up after the world's second largest economy dismantled its strict COVID curbs. US economy grew 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022, beating estimates of 2.6%, while up from 3.2% in the third quarter. US durable goods orders rose 5.6% in November, beating estimates of 2.4%, and improving from October's 2.1% decline. US unemployment claims tumbled to 181 thousand in the week ending January 21, the slowest since last April, and below estimates of 203 thousand, while also down from 192 thousand in the previous reading. Such data indicate the strength and vitality of the economy, which is reflected in recent statements by the IMF expecting the US recession to avoid recession this year. The state-owned Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) raised its projection for 2023 copper prices to $3.85 per pound, up from a December estimate of $3.70 a pound, as inventories worldwide drop. The world's refined copper market saw an 89,000 tonne deficit in November, compared with a surplus of 68,000 tonnes in October, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.53% to settle at 4336 while prices are down -2.5 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 777.2 and below same could see a test of 770.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 790.3, a move above could see prices testing 797.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 770.9-797.1.
* Copper dropped on profit booking as investors weighed a batch of economic data ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
* However, downside seen limited as hopes grew that economic activities in China would pick up after the economy dismantled its strict COVID curbs.
* Chile's Cochilco raises 2023 copper price forecast to $3.85/lb


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.9% at 298.85 on profit booking as investors further digested the latest economic data for hints on whether the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish stance. The global zinc market deficit climbed to 119,500 tonnes in November from a revised deficit of 39,400 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 72,400 tonnes in October. During the first 11 months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 228,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 163,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. London Metal Exchange zinc inventories have tumbled to the lowest levels in more than three decades, but rising stocks and tepid demand in top metals consumer China are helping to dampen concern about potential shortages. Shutdowns of some European zinc smelters this year due to high power prices has been a key reason behind low LME stocks of the metal mostly used for galvanising steel. Three-month LME zinc rallied along with other base metals in recent weeks as speculators cheered the reopening of China from COVID-19 restrictions, touching the highest in over four months. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.21% to settle at 2545 while prices are down -2.7 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 295.5 and below same could see a test of 292 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 303.5, a move above could see prices testing 308.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 292-308.
* Zinc dropped on profit booking as investors further digested the latest economic data for hints on whether the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance
* Global zinc market deficit widens to 119,500 T in November – ILZSG
* London Metal Exchange zinc inventories have tumbled to the lowest levels in more than three decades



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.01% at 225.25 on profit booking as better-than-expected fourth-quarter US GDP numbers raised hopes of a soft landing in the economy, and PCE data continued to show price pressures slowing. Global primary aluminium output in December rose 6.12% year on year to 5.859 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.47 million tonnes in December, the IAI said. China's aluminium imports in 2022 fell 25.6% from a year earlier as COVID-restrictions reduced consumption amid record high domestic production. Last year, the world's biggest aluminium producer and consumer brought in 2.39 million tonnes of unwrought aluminium and products, which includes primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. Demand for the light metal used in construction, transportation and packaging sectors was hampered by China's strict anti-coronavirus measures and its ailing property sector. Economic growth in the world's second-largest economy in 2022 slumped to one of its worst levels in nearly half. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets stood at 744,000 mt as of January 19, up 102,000 mt or 15.8% from a week ago and 252,000 mt from the end of December. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.72% to settle at 4833 while prices are down -2.3 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 223.8 and below same could see a test of 222.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 227.1, a move above could see prices testing 228.9.
Trading Ideas:
# Aluminium trading range for the day is 222.3-228.9.
# Aluminium dropped on profit booking as better-than-expected fourth-quarter US GDP numbers raised hopes of a soft landing in the economy
# Global aluminium output rises 6.1% y/y in December – IAI
# China 2022 aluminium imports fall 26% on lower demand


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.21% at 1011.2 on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes as compared to 1,813.38 tonnes exported during Apr- 2022 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 141.82 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 66.56%. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021 showing a drop of 5.23%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 9.4 Rupees to end at 1172.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.05% to settle at 940 while prices are up 2.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1004 and below same could see a test of 996.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1016.7, a move above could see prices testing 1022.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 996.7-1022.1.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 9.4 Rupees to end at 1172.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes
* In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -4.6% at 7388 on an “unexpected” slump in domestic and export demand. Turmeric production in the 2021-22 crop year (June-July) has been projected at 13.31 lakh tonnes against 11.24 lakh tonnes the previous year with the area increasing to 3.5 lakh hectares from 2.93 lakh hectares. In the first advance estimate, the crop was pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes. Turmeric exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has rose by 9.90 percent at 1,11,968.51 tonnes as compared to 1,01,882.03 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 11,178.11 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 10.92%. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,255.64tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 1.17%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7244.4 Rupees dropped -28.55 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 6.16% to settle at 13260 while prices are down -356 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7198 and below same could see a test of 7008 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7684, a move above could see prices testing 7980.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7008-7980.
*Turmeric prices dropped on an “unexpected” slump in domestic and export demand.
* Turmeric production in 2023 has been projected at 5.13 Lakh Mt against 4.67 Lakh Mt the previous year
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7244.4 Rupees dropped -28.55 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.73% at 30940 on profit booking after prices gained amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties. Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected. Sowing In Gujarat, dropped by nearly -8% with 274,995.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 300,401.00 hectares. Prices gained to all time high amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 17.40 percent at 133,250.24 tonnes as compared to 161,317.94 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes jeera was exported as against 12,427.86 tonnes in October 2022 showing a drop of 9.60%. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 10,838.83 tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 3.66%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -402.5 Rupees to end at 31784.45 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.37% to settle at 4848 while prices are down -545 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 30130 and below same could see a test of 29320 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31870, a move above could see prices testing 32800.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 29320-32800.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties.
* Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected.
* Sowing in Gujarat, dropped by nearly -10% with 275,832.00 hectares against sown area of 2021-22 which was 307,135.00 hectares.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -402.5 Rupees to end at 31784.45 Rupees per 100 kg.

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