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Gold 

Gold yesterday settled down by -1.23% at 50260 as a stronger U.S. dollar and prospects of more steep rate hikes from the Federal Reserve dented demand. Data showed U.S. consumer prices increased more-than-expected in September, providing ammunition to the Fed to deliver another big rate hike. US retail trade was unchanged in September 2022, missing market expectations of a 0.2 percent advance, as high inflation and rising borrowing costs hit consumer demand. Receipts were down at motor vehicle & parts dealers, gasoline stations, building materials and electronics stores, while sales at grocery stores were up, helped by rising prices in food. Physical gold buying improved in India as prices cooled ahead of the Dhanteras and Diwali festivals later this month, while Chinese premiums stayed elevated amid robust demand. In India, dealers were charging $1.5 an ounce premium over official domestic prices versus $6 discounts last week. Supplies were limited as banks were importing less and inflows of gold-platinum alloys have stopped after the government raised the import duty. China saw premiums of $27-$32 an ounce over global spot prices, although COVID restrictions could hit activity. Premiums of $1-$4 an ounce were charged in Hong Kong, and $1.50-$3 in Singapore. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.04% to settle at 14863 while prices are down -624 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 49964 and below same could see a test of 49669 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50764, a move above could see prices testing 51269.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 49669-51269

* Gold slipped as a stronger U.S. dollar and prospects of more steep rate hikes from the Federal Reserve dented demand.

*  Data showed U.S. consumer prices increased more-than-expected in September, providing ammunition to the Fed to deliver another big rate hike

*  Fed swaps price in peak policy rate of 4.85% in March 2023

 

Silver 

Silver yesterday settled down by -3.35% at 55226 after the latest U.S. CPI data signaled that the Federal Reserve has more to do to control inflation. After a red-hot U.S. inflation reading, Fed Fund Futures are now pricing another 125 bps of rate hikes in the remaining two FOMC meetings in 2022. Markets also started to price in the possibility of a 100- bps hike in November. Euro zone bond yields fell after European Central Bank (ECB) Vice-President Luis de Guindos said uncertainty about Russian energy imports is pushing the eurozone closer towards a contraction in 2023. The Federal Reserve is seen delivering another large interest-rate hike in three weeks' time and further rises this year and early next, after a government report showed inflation was stubbornly hot last month despite a historically fast pace of monetary policy tightening so far this year. Before the report, traders of U.S. interest-rate futures had all but priced in a fourth straight 75-basis-point hike at the close of the Fed's Nov. 1-2 meeting. The leap in rate-hike expectations followed a Labor Department report showing accelerating inflation pressures in September, with the consumer price index jumping 0.4% in a single month. From a year earlier prices rose 8.2%, far above the Fed's 2% target. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 23.6% to settle at 24093 while prices are down -1914 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 54253 and below same could see a test of 53279 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 56859, a move above could see prices testing 58491.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 53279-58491

* Silver dropped after the latest U.S. CPI data signaled that the Federal Reserve has more to do to control inflation.

* The Federal Reserve is seen delivering another large interest-rate hike in three weeks' time and further rises this year and early next

* Fed swaps fully price 75-basis-point rate hike in November.

 

Crude oil 

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -3.84% at 7071 pressured by a weakening demand outlook due to surging inflation, tightening financial conditions, and mounting global recession risks. Earlier this week, the OPEC, US Energy Department, and International Energy Agency slashed their global oil demand forecasts in their monthly reports. Saudi Arabia rejected as "not based on facts" criticism of an OPEC+ decision last week to cut its oil production target despite U.S. objections, and said that Washington's request to delay the cut by a month would have had negative economic consequences. The White House pushed back against that, saying it presented the Saudis with an analysis that showed the cuts could hurt the world economy, and alleging the Saudis pressured other OPEC members on a vote. U.S. crude stocks rose by nearly 10 million barrels last week after another big release from government reserves, while distillate inventories fell sharply, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories rose by 9.9 million barrels in the week to Oct. 7 to 439.1 million barrels, data showed, compared with expectations in a poll for a 1.8 million-barrel rise. Lackluster demand in top crude importer China as it clings to its zero-Covid policy also weighed on oil prices. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -25.03% to settle at 4474 while prices are down -282 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6936 and below same could see a test of 6802 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7297, a move above could see prices testing 7524

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6802-7524

* Crude oil dropped pressured by a weakening demand outlook due to surging inflation, tightening financial conditions, and mounting global recession risks.

* U.S. crude stockpiles surge on reserve releases; distillates draw down - EIA

* Lackluster demand in top crude importer China as it clings to its zero-Covid policy also weighed on oil prices.

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -3.35% at 534 as forecasts for colder weather that should boost heating demand over the next two weeks. US utilities added 125 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended October 7th, above market expectations of a 123 bcf build due to mild weather and an increase in wind power. It compares with an increase of 86 in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average increase of 82 bcf. Wind power produced about 9% of the nation's electricity last week, up from as little as 6% a few weeks earlier, according to federal energy data. Weighing on prices in recent weeks has been near-record gas output and recent reductions in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports that should allow utilities to keep injecting more gas into storage than usual in coming weeks. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 99.9 bcfd so far in October, up from a monthly record of 99.4 bcfd in September. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 92.6 bcfd this week to 98.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were similar to Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 35.95% to settle at 8247 while prices are down -18.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 524.4 and below same could see a test of 514.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 549.2, a move above could see prices testing 564.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 514.9-564.5

* Natural gas slid as record output and reduced LNG exports allowed utilities to inject much bigger than normal amounts of gas into storage.

* The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 125 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Oct. 7.

* Wind power produced about 9% of the nation's electricity last week, up from as little as 6% a few weeks earlier, according to federal energy data.

 

Copper 

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.26% at 650 after Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 109.3 % from last Friday. The Chinese Communist Party congress starts on Oct. 16 and market participants have been hoping for more announcements of stimulus measures to boost the economy of metals' biggest consuming market. China's consumer prices in September rose at the fastest pace since April 2020, mainly driven by food prices, limiting the scope for more central bank easing to prop up a faltering economy hit by COVID-19 restrictions and a property sector slump. Solid Chinese demand for copper, amid tight supply and an open import arbitrage, has helped Yangshan import copper premium surge to $137.50 a tonne, a one-year high and edging towards its highest since 2014. Chile's Codelco, the world's biggest copper miner, is offering to sell copper to European buyers at a record high premium around $235 a tonne for 2023, a rise of 85% from 2022. The premiums set by state-owned Codelco for physical delivery of copper, paid on top of the London Metal Exchange contract , are seen as a benchmark for global contracts. Europe's biggest copper smelter Aurubis will charge its European customers a premium of $228 per tonne above the benchmark London Metal Exchange (LME) price in 2023, the company said. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 7.74% to settle at 4954 while prices are down -8.3 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 644.8 and below same could see a test of 639.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 659.7, a move above could see prices testing 669.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 639.5-669.3.

* Copper prices dropped after Shanghai warehouse copper stocks rose by 109.3 %

* Solid Chinese demand for copper, amid tight supply, has helped Yangshan import copper premium surge to $137.50 a tonne

* Codelco offers 2023 European copper premiums at record high

Zinc 

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.53% at 269.65 as tightening financial conditions and rising risks of a global recession weighed on prices. China’s adherence to its zero-Covid policy also pressured the metal, with the IMF slashing its 2022 and 2023 growth forecasts for the country to 3.2% and 4.4%, respectively. China's consumer prices in September rose at the fastest pace since April 2020, mainly driven by food prices, limiting the scope for more central bank easing to prop up a faltering economy hit by COVID-19 restrictions and a property sector slump. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.8% from a year earlier, quickening from a 2.5% increase in August, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed, in line with forecast. The producer price index (PPI) rose 0.9% year-on-year from 2.3% growth a month earlier, and compared with a forecast of 1.0%. Traders are looking ahead to a congress of China's Communist Party starting on Oct. 16 that they hope will deliver stimulus measures to boost the economy and metals demand. China is the biggest metals user but COVID-19 controls have stifled activity, with expectation a 3.2% GDP rise this year, far below the official target of around 5.5%. China's central bank chief promised stronger support for the real economy, triggering the biggest gains on Chinese stock markets for five-and-a-half months. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.47% to settle at 2224 while prices are down -1.45 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 267.2 and below same could see a test of 264.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 274.2, a move above could see prices testing 278.7.

Trading Ideas :

*  Zinc trading range for the day is 264.7-278.7.

* Zinc dropped as tightening financial conditions and rising risks of a global recession weighed on prices.

* China's Sept CPI rises at fastest pace since April 2020

* China's central bank chief promised stronger support for the real economy

Aluminium 

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -2.52% at 203.2 as rising inventories pointed to ample supply, reversing some of the gains that followed news of a possible U.S. ban on imports of Russian metal. Russia produces 6% of the world's aluminium and U.S. measures to block trade in its metal could disrupt the market. The London Metal Exchange (LME) is also considering barring Russian metal from its system. Aluminium inventories rose in LME-registered warehouses by 41,400 tonne to 367,200 tonnes and in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses by 12,293 tonnes to 186,804 tonnes. In another sign that metal is plentiful, quickly delivered cash aluminium on the LME has dropped back to a small discount versus the three-month contract. Traders are looking ahead to a congress of China's Communist Party starting on Oct. 16 that they hope will deliver stimulus measures to boost the economy and metals demand. China is the biggest metals user but COVID-19 controls have stifled activity, with expectation a 3.2% GDP rise this year, far below the official target of around 5.5%. China's central bank chief promised stronger support for the real economy, triggering the biggest gains on Chinese stock markets for five-and-a-half months. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.02% to settle at 3361 while prices are down -5.25 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 200 and below same could see a test of 196.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 209.3, a move above could see prices testing 215.3.

Trading Ideas : 

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 196.7-215.3

*  Aluminium falters as rising inventories highlight weak fundamentals

*  Aluminium inventories rose in LME warehouses by 41,400 tonne and in SHFE warehouses by 12,293 tonnes

* The London Metal Exchange (LME) is also considering barring Russian metal from its system.

Mentha oil : 

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.4% at 985.1 as mentha exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent at 886.53 tonnes as compared to 1034.14 tonnes exported during Apr-Aug 2021. Exports in the month of August 2022 were around 238.04 tonnes as against 155.04 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 53.53%. In the month of August 2022 around 238.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 227.27 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rose of 4.74%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 28 Rupees to end at 1145.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.63% to settle at 1246 while prices are down -4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 981.8 and below same could see a test of 978.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 988.8, a move above could see prices testing 992.5.

Trading Ideas:

*  Mentha oil trading range for the day is 978.5-992.5.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 28 Rupees to end at 1145.2 Rupees per 360 kgs. 

* Mentha oil dropped as mentha exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent at 886.53 tonnes

* August exports were around 238.04 tonnes showing a rise of 53.53% compared to July 2022.

* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.

Turmeric  

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -2.06% at 7434 amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of Turmeric supply form Marathwada region. Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years. Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar said unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, as on 06th October 2022 Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67% till date. Turmeric exports during Apr-August 2022 has rose by 15.35 percent at 74,393.62 tonnes as compared to 64,493.34 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,810.36 tonnes in July 2022 showing a drop of 5.17%. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 11,617.90 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 4.56%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7221.15 Rupees dropped -15.3 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.38% to settle at 10675 while prices are down -156 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7318 and below same could see a test of 7200 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7636, a move above could see prices testing 7836.

Trading Ideas : 

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7200-7836.

* Turmeric dropped amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of Turmeric supply form Marathwada region.

*  As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.

*  Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.

*  In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7221.15 Rupees dropped -15.3 Rupees.

Jeera 

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.38% at 23950 on profit booking after prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-August 2022 has dropped by 26.44 percent at 91,505.49 tonnes as compared to 1,24,390.31 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes jeera was exported as against 19,866.18 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 18.74%. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,460.60 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 40.02%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -170.9 Rupees to end at 23950.3 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 12.49% to settle at 6675 while prices are down -335 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 23775 and below same could see a test of 23595 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24250, a move above could see prices testing 24545.

Trading Ideas :

*  Jeera trading range for the day is 23595-24545.

*  Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported as supply was less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks

*  Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month

*  All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -170.9 Rupees to end at 23950.3 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton 

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.94% at 32550 as crops remain threatened due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions. Cotton output is expected to rebound from last years’ experience of unseasonal rain affecting the crop. Production this year is seen at 341.9 lakh bales (170 kg) against 312.03 lakh bales last year. USDA projected higher year-end stocks and a decline in exports amid a slowdown in consumption. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. USDA said its estimates for 2022/23 U.S. cotton crop ending stocks are 100,000 bales higher from a year earlier, with production nearly unchanged at 13.8 million bales. In Gujarat, new cotton arrival increased, and daily arrival reached 6,000 bales of 170 kg. Ginning mills have started buying seed cotton with the advent of the auspicious festival of Navratri. However, spinning mills are cautious as they expect a downward trend in cotton prices during peak arrival. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -110 Rupees to end at 33280 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.5% to settle at 573 while prices are up 620 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 32160 and below same could see a test of 31780 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 32760, a move above could see prices testing 32980.

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 31780-32980.

* Cotton gained as crops remain threatened due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions.

* USDA projected higher year-end stocks and a decline in exports amid a slowdown in consumption.

* WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam.

*  In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -110 Rupees to end at 33280 Rupees.

 

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