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*Jeera May futures on NCDEX inched up on Tuesday on dip in arrivals in the spot market. However, expectation of rise in arrivals in coming days weighed on, keeping gains under check.

*According to a survey conducted by the Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders, jeera production in India is likely to be 478520 tons in 2020-21 (Oct-Sep), down by 11 per cent yoy.

* Government estimates 2020-21 jeera output at 887000 tons compared to 912000 tons a year ago.

* According to the second advance estimates released by the Gujarat’s farm department, production in jeera is expected to be at 373700 tonnes in 2020-21 compared to 375420 tonnes produced last year (2019-20).

* According to Gujarat's farm department, as of 28 Dec2020, jeera has been sown across 464469 hectares in state, compared to 435657 hectares sown during the same period last year.

* Spices Board pegs Apr-Sep jeera exports at 153000 tonnes, up by 33 per cent on yoy basis.

* Despite rise in arrivals in the spot market Coriander May futures on NCDEX tested its highest level in nearly two years on Tuesday on robust demand.

* Government sees 2020-21 coriander output at 720000 tons compared to 701000 tons a year ago.

*Coriander production in Gujarat is expected to rise 55 per cent to 216680 tonnes in 2020-21 season (Jul-Jun) due to sharp rise in acreage according to the state’s farm department’s second advance estimates.

*As of Dec 28, 2020 coriander has been sown across 135563 hectares compared to 76904 hectares sown during the same period last year showed the data from the Gujarat state farm department.

* According to Spices Board of India data, coriander exports for the Apr-Sep period this year is seen at 26750 tonnes, up by nine per cent on yoy basis.

* Turmeric May futures on NCDEX gained more than one per cent on Tuesday on dip in arrivals in the spot market and on steady demand.

* Government sees 2020-21 turmeric output at 1.11 million tonnes compared to 1.15 million tons a year ago.

* Spices Board pegs turmeric export from India for the period Apr-Sep this year at 99000 tonnes, up by 42 per cent year on.

* Government pegs 2020-21 cardamom output at 25000 tons compared to 21000 tons a year ago. JEERA NCDEX MAY May trade steady to weak unless the resistance of 15050 is breached convincingly upside. DHANIYA NCDEX MAY May stretch gains, even as dips to 7350/7250 seems possible before resuming rising. TURMERIC NCDEX MAY 8600 is the key resistance upside that has to be breached convincingly for more upsides. As long as this range caps, may trade sideways to weak. CARDAMOM MCX APR Choppy trades expected. TECHNICAL VIEW Agri Picks, 07.04.2021 OILSEED COMPLEX Market Buzz

* All commodities in the oilseed baske

OILSEED

* The International Cotton Advisory Committee has scaled up its forecast for global prices in 2020-21 (AugJul), as ending stocks for the ongoing season are estimated to be lower. The committee has revised upwards its price forecast for Cotlook A index, a global benchmark for prices of raw cotton, by 3 cents from the previous month to 79 cents per pound. Lower stock levels provide additional support for prices which have increased over the course of the current season supported by falling production and rising consumption. Global ending stocks for the season are estimated at 20.9 mln tn, compared with 21.4 mln tn in the previous season. Global production for the ongoing season is estimated at 24.1 mln tn, down 8% from the previous season. The fall has largely been attributed to a smaller crop in the US, Brazil, and Pakistan. Production in India, is expected at 6.3 mln tn, compared with 6.2 mln tn in the previous year. In the US, cotton production is estimated at 3.2 mln tn, against 4.3 mln tn a year ago. The committee has estimated global consumption at 24.5 mln tn, compared with 22.8 mln tn last year as manufacturing activity continues to show signs of recovery. Global exports are seen higher at 9.5 mln tn, compared with 9.0 mln tn a year ago.

* The UK-based Cotton Outlook has marginally lowered its estimate for global output in 2020-21 (Aug-Jul) by 85,000 tn to 24 mln tn in its March report. The estimate has been scaled down largely because production is expected to be lower in India and the US. Output is seen higher at 6.3 mln tn in China. For the current season, the agency has lowered its crop estimate for India, the largest producer, to 6.1 mln tn from 6.2 mln tn projected a month ago. Production in the US is seen at 3.2 mln tn. Global cotton consumption in 2020-21 is seen at 24.9 mln tn, against the 24.5 mln tn projected in the previous month. Consumption is seen marginally higher on likely rise in demand from the Indian subcontinent, China and Turkey. As textile supply chains have recovered following the most acute phase of the COVID-related disruption, many spinners have enjoyed good profits and some have been adding new capacity. Ending stocks of the fibre for 2020-21 are seen at 814,000 tn, against 417,000 tn projected last month.

* The Cotton Association of India has marginally lowered its production estimate to 35.9 mln bales for the year from 36.0 mln bales in 2019-20. Of the total crop, around 29.9 mln bales have arrived in markets across India till February. The Cotton Association of India has raised its export estimate for the ongoing 2020-21 (Oct-Sep) season to 6.0 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg) from 5.4 mln bales projected in the previous month. In the current marketing year till February, India has shipped around 3.6 mln bales. The association has scaled down its estimate for ending stocks to 10.6 mln bales, against 11.5 mln bales projected a month ago. Domestic consumption is maintained at 33.0 mln bales in 2020-21, while imports are now pegged at 1.2 mln bales compared to 1.4 mln bales a month ago.

* The US Department of Agriculture has scaled down India's cotton ending stock estimate for 2020-21 (AugJul) to 17.4 mln bales (1 US bale = 218 kg) from 18.1 mln bales pegged in February. The downward revision in stocks is mainly due to higher export estimate for the country. On the export side, higher Indian exports account for most of the increase as auctions by the Cotton Corp of India have released much of the cotton purchased last year under the minimum support price. The agency, in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for March, revised its export estimates for India to 5.7 mln bales from 5.0 mln bales in the previous month. Production and domestic consumption estimate for India is maintained at 29.0 mln bales and 24.3 mln bales, respectively. USDA has scaled down its global cotton production estimate for 2020-21 to 113.3 mln bales due to smaller crop in Brazil and the US. The agency had pegged global production at 114.1 mln bales a month ago. Global cotton consumption is seen marginally higher at 117.5 mln bales. Exports are now seen at 44.5 mln bales, compared with 43.9 mln bales. Ending stocks are expected to be lower at 94.6 mln bales compared with 95.7 mln bales.

* In the Union Budget for 2021-22 (Apr-Mar), Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman proposed customs duty of 5% on cotton and 10% on cotton waste. She also proposed an Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess of 5% on cotton, taking the overall customs duty to 10%. Customs duty on raw silk and silk yarn or yarn spun from silk waste has been increased to 15% from 10% earlier.

* The area under major kharif crops so far in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) was at 111.7 mln ha, up nearly 5% from a year ago, farm ministry data showed. Farmers have sown cotton across 13.04 mln ha in the 2020-21 (JulJun) season, up by 2.1% from a year ago, as of 25th Sept., farm ministry.

* India's cotton output in the 2020-21 (Oct-Sep) marketing year is seen at 38.0 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg), up 4% on year, according to traders' pegs 2020-21 cotton crop at 37.1 mln bales vs 35.5 mln bales.

* Govt cuts 2019-20 cotton output view to 35.5 mln bales vs 36.0 mln. The government has raised the support price of medium staple cotton by 260 rupees per 100 kg to 5,515 rupees, and that of long staple by 275 rupees to 5,825 rupees

Cotton

 * Chana May futures on NCDEX hit its highest level in more than five months on Tuesday on strong demand. Also, concerns over possibility of restrictions being imposed due to surge in Covid-19 cases, which could affect supplies, lend support as well.

* Procurement of chana under the price support scheme has more than doubled 124130 tons in less than 10 days according to government officials.

* The government has procured 58819 tn of chana, harvested in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), from farmers at the minimum support price as of March 22. • Rajasthan government will start procurement of chana and mustard from farmers at the minimum support price from April 1. Around 614900 tons of chana and 1.2 million ton mustard will be procured from the farmers.

* The government has approved procurement of 14350 tons of chana Bihar during 2021- 22 rabi marketing season.

* The farm ministry has approved the procurement of 61000 tonnes of chana from Maharashtra in 2021-21 under the price support scheme according to the NAFED.

* The farm ministry has approved the procurement of 51325 tonnes of chana from Telangana in 2021-21 under the price support scheme according to the NAFED.

Farm Commissioner expects 2020-21 chana output to be at 11.5 million tonnes compared to 11.4 million tonnes a year ago.

* India’s guar gum exports improved in the month of December 2020 by 32% to 17,644 tonnes compared to 13,414 tonnes during November 2020 at an average FoB of US $ 1849 per tonne in the month of December compared to US $ 1611 per tonne in the month of November 2020. However, the gum shipments were down -1% in December 2020 compared to the same period last year. Of the total exported quantity, around 4,914 tonnes is bought US, Russia (3,290 tonnes) and Germany (2,432 tonnes).

* India’s guar split exports fell in the month of December 2020 by -39% to 2,800 tonnes compared to 4,557 tonnes during November 2020 at an average FoB of US $ 955 per tonne in the month of December compared to US $ 1,390 per tonne in the month of November 2020. Further, the guar split shipments were up +32% in December 2020 compared to the same period last year. Of the total exported quantity, around 1,880 tonnes is bought China, US (800 tonnes) and Switzerland (120 tonnes).

* MCX rubber futures pared intial gains to end Tuesday’s session down, while key spot markets in Kerala stayed closed on account of assembly election.

* Based on the preliminary estimates, the outlook of world production of natural rubber (NR) is likely to fall 12.4%, year-on-year, to 897,000 tonnes in February 2021. While the world consumption of natural rubber is estimated to recover at 47.5%, year-on-year, to 1.103 million tonnes during the same month

OTHERS

* The International Cotton Advisory Committee has scaled up its forecast for global prices in 2020-21 (AugJul), as ending stocks for the ongoing season are estimated to be lower. The committee has revised upwards its price forecast for Cotlook A index, a global benchmark for prices of raw cotton, by 3 cents from the previous month to 79 cents per pound. Lower stock levels provide additional support for prices which have increased over the course of the current season supported by falling production and rising consumption. Global ending stocks for the season are estimated at 20.9 mln tn, compared with 21.4 mln tn in the previous season. Global production for the ongoing season is estimated at 24.1 mln tn, down 8% from the previous season. The fall has largely been attributed to a smaller crop in the US, Brazil, and Pakistan. Production in India, is expected at 6.3 mln tn, compared with 6.2 mln tn in the previous year. In the US, cotton production is estimated at 3.2 mln tn, against 4.3 mln tn a year ago. The committee has estimated global consumption at 24.5 mln tn, compared with 22.8 mln tn last year as manufacturing activity continues to show signs of recovery. Global exports are seen higher at 9.5 mln tn, compared with 9.0 mln tn a year ago.

* The UK-based Cotton Outlook has marginally lowered its estimate for global output in 2020-21 (Aug-Jul) by 85,000 tn to 24 mln tn in its March report. The estimate has been scaled down largely because production is expected to be lower in India and the US. Output is seen higher at 6.3 mln tn in China. For the current season, the agency has lowered its crop estimate for India, the largest producer, to 6.1 mln tn from 6.2 mln tn projected a month ago. Production in the US is seen at 3.2 mln tn. Global cotton consumption in 2020-21 is seen at 24.9 mln tn, against the 24.5 mln tn projected in the previous month. Consumption is seen marginally higher on likely rise in demand from the Indian subcontinent, China and Turkey. As textile supply chains have recovered following the most acute phase of the COVID-related disruption, many spinners have enjoyed good profits and some have been adding new capacity. Ending stocks of the fibre for 2020-21 are seen at 814,000 tn, against 417,000 tn projected last month.

* The Cotton Association of India has marginally lowered its production estimate to 35.9 mln bales for the year from 36.0 mln bales in 2019-20. Of the total crop, around 29.9 mln bales have arrived in markets across India till February. The Cotton Association of India has raised its export estimate for the ongoing 2020-21 (Oct-Sep) season to 6.0 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg) from 5.4 mln bales projected in the previous month. In the current marketing year till February, India has shipped around 3.6 mln bales. The association has scaled down its estimate for ending stocks to 10.6 mln bales, against 11.5 mln bales projected a month ago. Domestic consumption is maintained at 33.0 mln bales in 2020-21, while imports are now pegged at 1.2 mln bales compared to 1.4 mln bales a month ago.

The US Department of Agriculture has scaled down India's cotton ending stock estimate for 2020-21 (AugJul) to 17.4 mln bales (1 US bale = 218 kg) from 18.1 mln bales pegged in February. The downward revision in stocks is mainly due to higher export estimate for the country. On the export side, higher Indian exports account for most of the increase as auctions by the Cotton Corp of India have released much of the cotton purchased last year under the minimum support price. The agency, in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for March, revised its export estimates for India to 5.7 mln bales from 5.0 mln bales in the previous month. Production and domestic consumption estimate for India is maintained at 29.0 mln bales and 24.3 mln bales, respectively. USDA has scaled down its global cotton production estimate for 2020-21 to 113.3 mln bales due to smaller crop in Brazil and the US. The agency had pegged global production at 114.1 mln bales a month ago. Global cotton consumption is seen marginally higher at 117.5 mln bales. Exports are now seen at 44.5 mln bales, compared with 43.9 mln bales. Ending stocks are expected to be lower at 94.6 mln bales compared with 95.7 mln bales.

* In the Union Budget for 2021-22 (Apr-Mar), Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman proposed customs duty of 5% on cotton and 10% on cotton waste. She also proposed an Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess of 5% on cotton, taking the overall customs duty to 10%. Customs duty on raw silk and silk yarn or yarn spun from silk waste has been increased to 15% from 10% earlier.

* The area under major kharif crops so far in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) was at 111.7 mln ha, up nearly 5% from a year ago, farm ministry data showed. Farmers have sown cotton across 13.04 mln ha in the 2020-21 (JulJun) season, up by 2.1% from a year ago, as of 25th Sept., farm ministry.

* India's cotton output in the 2020-21 (Oct-Sep) marketing year is seen at 38.0 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg), up 4% on year, according to traders' pegs 2020-21 cotton crop at 37.1 mln bales vs 35.5 mln bales.

* Govt cuts 2019-20 cotton output view to 35.5 mln bales vs 36.0 mln. The government has raised the support price of medium staple cotton by 260 rupees per 100 kg to 5,515 rupees, and that of long staple by 275 rupees to 5,825 rupees.

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