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Gold

yesterday settled up by 0.09% at 58906 as markets remained skeptical over the Fed’s course of action following the latest economic releases. July’s US CPI numbers were cooler than expected, backing the current trend of disinflation in the US economy and solidifying bets that the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising its funds rate in its upcoming September meeting. Still, Fed officials signaled that there is still more work to do to bring inflation down, stoking fears that the current terminal rate will be maintained for longer than previously expected, thus increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing precious metals. Physical gold demand picked up in India helped by a retreat in prices, while strong central bank buying kept premiums stable near five-month highs in top buyer China. This allowed dealers to trim discounts to about $1.50 an ounce over official domestic prices from $3 levels last week. Jewellery manufacturers also received a good number of orders at the India International Jewellery Show this week in Mumbai, said Vipul Shah, chairman of the Gem Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC). The top consumer has been steadily increasing its reserves, with the central bank reporting 68.69 million fine troy ounces at end-July versus 67.95 million fine troy ounces at end-June. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2% to settle at 13512 while prices are up 53 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 58750 and below same could see a test of 58600 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59040, a move above could see prices testing 59180.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 58600-59180.

* Gold steadied as markets remained skeptical over the Fed’s course of action.

* July’s US CPI numbers were cooler than expected, backing the current trend of disinflation in the US economy

* Physical gold demand picked up in India helped by a retreat in prices

Silver

yesterday settled down by -0.01% at 69976 amid solid industrial demand and tight supply. Also, efforts to curb carbon emissions sped up the development of solar panel technologies that need higher conduction needs, causing sharp upgrades in forecasts for silver demand. Solar panel companies are expected to make up 14% of global silver consumption, compared to 5% in 2014. Meanwhile, the output is projected to rise by slower 2%, flagging fresh supply deficit concerns. Traders shrugged off signs of cooling in the US labour market and softer-than-expected inflation reading after hawkish remarks from the Fed reignited fears that interest rates could stay higher for longer. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US edged lower to 71.2 in August of 2023 from 71.6 in July which was the highest reading since October 2021, but beat forecasts of 71, according to preliminary estimates. The expectations subindex declined to 67.3 from 68.3 while the gauge for current economic conditions increased to 77.4, the highest since October of 2021, from 76.6. In general, consumers perceived few material differences in the economic environment from last month, but they saw substantial improvements relative to just three months ago. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.18% to settle at 17935 while prices are down -5 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 69620 and below same could see a test of 69260 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 70370, a move above could see prices testing 70760.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 69260-70760.

* Silver gains amid solid industrial demand and tight supply.

* Solar panel companies are expected to make up 14% of global silver consumption.

* Traders shrugged off signs of cooling in the US labour market and softer-than-expected inflation reading.

Crudeoil yesterday settled up by 0.89% at 6934 amid optimistic demand forecasts from the OPEC producer group and the International Energy Agency (IEA). OPEC indicated an expectation for global oil demand to grow by 2.25 million bpd in 2024, slightly less than the projected 2.44 million bpd increase for the current year. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia and Russia output cuts, as well as Russia-Ukraine tensions have been supporting prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its oil demand growth projections for the upcoming year, indicating a slower pace than previously anticipated. The change is attributed to lackluster macroeconomic conditions, a waning momentum in the post-pandemic recovery, and the increasing adoption of electric vehicles. According to the IEA's August monthly oil market report, the growth rate is now expected to decelerate to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024. This figure is 150,000 bpd lower than the organization's previous prediction. The IEA emphasized the persistently challenging global economic landscape marked by rising interest rates and stricter bank credit, which is further squeezing businesses already contending with sluggish manufacturing and trade. For the current year, 2023, the IEA maintains its projection of a 2.2 million bpd expansion in global oil demand. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.87% to settle at 6928 while prices are up 61 rupees, now Crudeoil is getting support at 6850 and below same could see a test of 6766 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6982, a move above could see prices testing 7030.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6766-7030.

* Crude oil gained amid optimistic demand forecasts from the OPEC and IEA.

* IEA revises down its projection for oil demand growth in 2024.

* OPEC indicated an expectation for global oil demand to grow by 2.25 million bpd in 2024

Naturalgas

yesterday settled down by -6.2% at 228.6 getting support from forecasts for hot weather and higher cooling demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that utilities added 29 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Aug 4. That was slightly bigger than the 25-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll, and lifted stockpiles to 3.030 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 11% above the five-year average. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the lower 48 states will remain hotter than normal through at least Aug. 26. Average gas output in the U.S. lower 48 states was 101.9 bcfd so far in August, nearly the same as the 101.8 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record of 102.2 bcfd in May. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have fallen from an average of 12.7 bcfd in July to 12.3 bcfd so far in August, mainly due to reductions at Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu facility in Louisiana. Data provider Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 103.0 bcfd to 104.6 bcfd next week as power generators burn more of the fuel and exports rise. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 16.64% to settle at 24151 while prices are down -15.1 rupees, now Naturalgas is getting support at 221.4 and below same could see a test of 214.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 242.3, a move above could see prices testing 256.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 219.5-240.7.

* Natural gas gains amid forecasts for hot weather and higher cooling demand. 

* EIA reported that utilities added 29 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage.

* Meteorologists forecast the weather in the lower 48 states will remain hotter than normal through at least Aug. 26.

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.51% at 725 as new data magnified concerns over China’s economic recovery and further pared the outlook for base metal demand in the world’s top consumer. New yuan loans rose by CNY 346 billion in July, less than half of market expectations to point to the lowest demand for credit since 2009, magnifying worries after the sharp decline in trade turnover and another round of contractionary manufacturing PMI in the period. Despite the series of concerning data, markets continued to be skeptical about economic support from Beijing as public bodies refrained from signaling that significant stimulus could be passed. Still, the decline was limited by evidence of lower supply, risking wide shortages as economies transition to copper-intensive green technologies. Codelco’s output sank by 14% in the first half of the year. Additionally, the latest data showed that global inventories are 26% down year-to-date. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.5% from last Friday, the exchange said. China's June copper cathode output jumped 15% from a year earlier, expecting August output to rise further to a historic high. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.43% to settle at 5894 while prices are down -3.7 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 721.9 and below same could see a test of 718.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 728.9, a move above could see prices testing 732.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 718.7-732.7.

* Copper falls as fresh data amplifies China economic worries.

* However, the decline was limited by evidence of lower supply, risking wide shortages.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 1.5% from last Friday

Zinc

yesterday settled down by -1.7% at 217.45 as mounting concerns about the slow recovery in top buyer China weighed on prospects for demand. In particular, weak manufacturing data and a struggling property sector suggest more stimulus measures are likely needed to enhance the world's largest economy. Looking forward, S&P Global anticipates a moderate growth of 1.4% in the worldwide demand for refined zinc in 2023, influenced by ongoing inflation and stringent monetary policies in both the US and Europe. Concurrently, global refined zinc supply is expected to increase by 1.9%, attributed to a low base year and easing energy costs in Europe, while zinc smelter production in China is constrained due to power restrictions. China's new bank loans tumbled in July, data showed, with annual growth of outstanding total social financing (TSF) – a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy – slowing to 8.9%. TSF slumped to 528.2 billion yuan ($73.04 billion) from 4.22 trillion yuan in June, missing analyst estimates. Concern over the health of the property sector has also resurfaced, with a possible debt restructuring by Country Garden, China's top private property developer. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 8.7% to settle at 3723 while prices are down -3.75 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 216 and below same could see a test of 214.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 219.8, a move above could see prices testing 222.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 214.6-222.2.

* Zinc dropped amid mounting concerns about the slow recovery in China.

* S&P Global anticipates a moderate growth of 1.4% in the worldwide demand for refined zinc in 2023

* Global refined zinc supply is expected to increase by 1.9%.

Aluminium

yesterday settled down by -1.07% at 198.25 after data demonstrating the sluggish nature of China's post-pandemic recovery. Chinese property giant's debt issue raised doubts about a real estate recovery. Aluminium stocks of Russian origin in London Metal Exchange-approved warehouses, available to the market, rose to 81% of the total in July from 80% in June. The share of Russian origin stocks in LME-registered warehouses has been gradually rising this year as some traders and consumers scramble for alternatives to the Russian metals, even though they are not directly targeted by Western sanctions imposed on Moscow. Russian aluminium stocks on LME warrant rose to 227,525 metric tons in July from 218,025 in June, data published by the world's oldest exchange and largest metals market showed. The proportion of Indian aluminium inventories, which have been dragged down by the move away from the Russian metal, in LME warehouses was unchanged at 18% in July. On the supply side of the fundamentals, Yunnan region is maintaining resumption of production. Currently, more than 80% of the resumption plan has been completed, and production continues to be released. The pressure on the supply side may continue to increase, and the space above aluminum prices is limited. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.6% to settle at 4124 while prices are down -2.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 197.1 and below same could see a test of 196 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 199.8, a move above could see prices testing 201.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 196-201.4.

* Aluminum fell due to sluggish China post-pandemic recovery data.

* Chinese property giant's debt issue raised doubts about a real estate recovery.

* Russian aluminium in LME – registered warehouses rise to 81% in July

Cottoncandy

yesterday settled up by 0.37% at 60440 as arrivals in Punjab have been recorded at almost one-third of the previous year, 2021-22. In Punjab the arrival of cotton in the 2022-23 marketing season has been recorded at 8.7 lakh quintal till date this year, while it was 28.89 lakh quintal for the entire 2021-22 season. USDA weekly export sales report showed net sales of 277,700 running bales of cotton for 2023/2024, with increases primarily for China. During this Kharif season, cotton cultivation in Gujarat has achieved a remarkable milestone, surpassing the records of the past eight years. The state's farmers have successfully planted cotton across an extensive 26.64 lakh hectare area, showcasing a stark contrast to the declining trend witnessed in other major cotton-producing states. In fact, Gujarat, known as India's largest cotton producer, has accomplished cotton sowing in a total of 26,64,565 hectare (ha) as of July 31, according to official data from the state Directorate of Agriculture. Data from the USDA showed that the projected 2023 US crop remained unchanged at 16.5 million bales. However, there were adjustments made in other areas, as the acreage planted was lowered, abandonment was reduced, and the expected yield was also lowered. Moreover, exports for the soon-to-end 2022 crop year were lowered by 100,000 bales, and those for the 2023 crop were cut by 250,000 bales. In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 28824 Rupees gained by 0.11 percent. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settle at 381 while prices are up 220 rupees, now Cottoncandy is getting support at 60120 and below same could see a test of 59810 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60620, a move above could see prices testing 60810.

Trading Ideas:

* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 59810-60810.

* Cotton rises as arrivals in Punjab recorded at 1/3 of last year.

* USDA weekly export sales report showed net sales of 277,700 running bales of cotton for 2023/2024, with increases primarily for China

* North India's cotton crop for the 2023-24 season is expected to hit the market in September

* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 28824 Rupees gained by 0.11 percent.

Turmeric

yesterday settled up by 0.36% at 16904 on profit booking amid improved crop condition. Losses in turmeric is likely to be capped by limited availability of quality produce in the market. Ongoing sowing and crop progress is major price driver for turmeric and forecast of drier weather in southern and central region has added worries to turmeric crops. Sowing activities almost completed in Maharashtra and likely to pick up in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu but erratic monsoon rainfall has impacted the sowing progress. The looming threat of El Nino casts a shadow over the upcoming turmeric crop. Meteorological predictions suggest the activation of El Nino in July, potentially resulting in reduced rainfall and drought conditions. Such conditions could particularly impact yields, like turmeric, that heavily rely on monsoon irrigation. Farmers shift in focus has led to expectations of a 20-25 percent decrease in turmeric sowing this year, notably in states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. Turmeric exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 27.55 percent at 39,418.73 tonnes as compared to 30,903.38 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14555.25 Rupees gained by 0.08 percent. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.43% to settle at 15825 while prices are up 60 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 16538 and below same could see a test of 16170 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 17256, a move above could see prices testing 17606.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16170-17606.

* Turmeric dropped on profit booking amid improved crop condition.

* Losses in turmeric is likely to be capped by limited availability of quality produce in the market.

* In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14555.25 Rupees gained by 0.08 percent.

Jeera

yesterday settled down by -0.93% at 62040 in wake of improved global supply condition. Cheaper availability of Syria and jeera in global market will lead to fall in export demand from India in coming days. Drier weather condition in Gujarat will also lead to rise in arrivals that will cap the upwards move. China’s cumin imports and exports have caused temporary corrections in cumin prices, with a recent $200 decrease in the international market. The possibility of China purchasing Indian cumin in October-November before the arrival of new cumin adds further uncertainty to the market dynamics. Cumin imports in May 2023 reached 210 metric tons, showing a substantial increase of 227.73% compared to the previous month's import volume of 64 metric tons. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 67.90 percent at 42,988.50 tonnes as compared to 25,603.35 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,084.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 51.52%. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 73.91%. In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 61633.25 Rupees dropped by -0.15 percent. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 8.36% to settle at 6846 while prices are down -585 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 61560 and below same could see a test of 61060 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 62760, a move above could see prices testing 63460.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 61060-63460.

* Jeera prices remained under pressure in wake of improved global supply condition.

* Cheaper availability of Syria and jeera in global market will lead to fall in export demand from India in coming days.

* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 61633.25 Rupees dropped by -0.15 percent.

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