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Spot USDINR ended at 74.15 up 10 paise -  HDFC Securities 

* Indian Rupee depreciated for the fourth day in row following stronger dollar and crude oil prices while equities remain lower. The foreign fund outflows also weighed on local unit. The dollar rose to the highest since November as investors opted for safe havens, Treasury yields were little changed near the highest since June.

* Spot USDINR ended at 74.15 up 10 paise. The pair has resistance at 74.50 and support at 73.80. Near term bias remains bullish for the pair following broad based strength in dollar index and foreign fund outflows.

* Indian bonds gain amid an overnight retreat in crude prices and ahead of Thursday’s Operation Twist, where the central plans to buy longer-dated debt and sell similar amount of shorter notes. The 10-year yield falls 2bps to 6.21% and 5-year yield drops 3bps to 5.65%.

* Dollar bulls will cheer the greenback, which has tended to strengthen in October-- by about 1% on average over the last 10 years, based on the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index.

* Asian stocks looked set for a muted open after U.S. equities pared most of their gains as a rally in tech shares petered out. After a stormy September, the seasonal winds look kinder for risk assets, if historical patterns are a guide. Over the last 10 years, emergingmarket stocks have led an October charge posting an average 2.6% return, with shares in the U.S. and other developed markets also climbing. 

* Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his counterparts at the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England voiced cautious optimism Wednesday that supply-chain disruptions lifting inflation rates around the world would ultimately prove temporary.

Technical Observations

* USDINR October futures formed higher highs and lows on daily chart.

* The pair is having falling trend line resistance around 74.75.

* It has crossed the 55 days exponential moving averages.

* Momentum oscillator, Relative Strength Index of 14 days headed north and currently placed at 60 suggesting upward momentum in the pair.

* MACD about to cross the zero line while histogram started forming bigger blocks indicating upward trend.

* USDINR October futures likely to trade higher with intraday resistance near 74.75 and support at 74.40.

* Near term bias remains bullish and breakout above 74.75 will confirm medium term trend reversal.

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