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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.05% at 52745 as the dollar pulled back after U.S. Federal Reserve officials signalled a slower pace of interest rate hikes. The Federal Reserve will likely soon slow its interest rates hikes, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard signaled, as the U.S. central bank tries to figure out how high borrowing costs need to go and how long they should stay there to bring down inflation. "I think it will probably be appropriate soon to move to a slower pace of increases, but I think what’s really important to emphasize is... we have additional work to do," Brainard said. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warned investors against getting too optimistic over one inflation report, and said that the central bank “still got a ways to go” with interest rate hikes. Waller acknowledged that the Fed may slow the pace of rate increases in the upcoming meetings, but emphasized that markets should focus on the terminal rate which is likely still “a ways off” rather than the pace of each move. A spike in domestic prices put off most physical gold consumers in India and prompted dealers to offer discounts for the first time in about a month, with higher rates playing spoilsport in China as well. Dealers offered discounts of $4 an ounce over official domestic prices versus last week's $3 premiums. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.86% to settle at 6764 while prices are up 27 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52597 and below same could see a test of 52448 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52973, a move above could see prices testing 53200.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 52448-53200.
* Gold prices steadied as the dollar pulled back after U.S. Federal Reserve officials signalled a slower pace of interest rate hikes.
* Fed may slow pace of rate hikes soon: Brainard
* Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warned investors against getting too optimistic over one inflation report

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.41% at 61590 as investors continued to assess how high the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in its coming meetings. Despite the cooler-than-expected inflation print for October, Fed officials stated that the central bank is not softening its battle against inflation. Data consolidating the easing inflation trend lowered bets on the Federal Reserve's terminal rate. Money markets believe that the Fed will raise its target funds rate by 50bps in its December meeting, slowing from four consecutive 75bps rate hikes delivered since June. While bullion is commonly used to hedge against inflation, higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost to hold non-interest-bearing assets, denting its appeal. China's industrial output rose 5.0% in October from a year earlier, slowing from the 6.3% pace seen in September, official data showed, as COVID-19 restrictions weighed on factory activity. Retail sales fell 0.5%, the first drop since May when Shanghai was under a city-wide lockdown. Analysts had expected retail sales to rise 1.0%, slowing from a 2.5% gain in September. Fixed asset investment expanded 5.8% in the first 10 months of 2022 from the same period a year earlier, versus expectations for a 5.9% rise. China's retail trade unexpectedly declined by 0.5% year-on-year in October 2022. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.98% to settle at 13591 while prices are down -880 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 61045 and below same could see a test of 60500 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 62590, a move above could see prices testing 63590.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 60500-63590.
* Silver dropped as investors continued to assess how high the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in its coming meetings.
* The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell below 3.8%, the lowest since early October
* The dollar depreciated more than 1% to 105.6, the lowest since August 12th.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.09% at 7057 as geopolitical concerns rattled markets after a Russian-made missile hit Polish territory and killed two civilians. Oil output in the Permian Basin is set to hit another record of 5.499 million barrels per day in December, but production is rising very slowly in the biggest U.S. shale oil basin even though U.S. prices have surged in 2022. Overall U.S. crude oil output in shale regions is due to rise by a mere 91,000 bpd to 9.191 million bpd in December, the highest since March 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its monthly productivity report. Russian oil output is set to fall 1.4 million barrels per day(bpd) next year after a European Union ban on seaborne exports of Russian crude comes into effect, the International Energy Agency said. The move to deprive Moscow of revenue will create more uncertainty for oil markets and add to pressure on prices, including diesel, the Paris-based energy agency said in its monthly oil report. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its 2022 global oil demand growth forecast for a fifth time since April, citing mounting economic challenges including high inflation and rising interest rates. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -32.8% to settle at 3875 while prices are up 76 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6905 and below same could see a test of 6752 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7148, a move above could see prices testing 7238.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6752-7238.
* Crude oil recovered as geopolitical concerns rattled markets after a Russian-made missile hit Polish territory and killed two civilians.
* U.S. Permian oil output to hit record in December, but gains are slow
* Russian oil output to fall 1.4 mln bpd next year as EU ban takes effect – IEA
 

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.1% at 492.8 supported by prospects of higher heating demand due to colder-than-average temperatures. Elsewhere, the latest EIA data showed US utilities added 79 bcf of gas to storage last week, below market expectations of an 84 bcf increase and compared with a rise of 15 bcf in the same week last year. The market remained hyper focused on unproven rumors that the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas may not return to service until December. Freeport LNG has said repeatedly said the plant, which shut after an explosion on June 8, would return in November. U.S. natural gas storage is expected to end the November-March withdrawal season at 1.432 trillion cubic feet (tcf) on March 31, 2023, the most since 2021, according to consensus forecasts. There was 1.801 tcf of gas in storage at the end of March 2021. U.S. natural gas prices at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana will rise to $6.82 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2022, their highest since 2008, before falling to $5.63 in 2023, according to analyst forecasts. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 33.06% to settle at 6930 while prices are up 0.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 477 and below same could see a test of 461.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 507.1, a move above could see prices testing 521.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 461.2-521.4.
* Natural gas gains supported by prospects of higher heating demand due to colder-than-average temperatures.
* The market remained hyper focused on unproven rumors that the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas may not return to service until December.
* Freeport LNG has said repeatedly said the plant, which shut after an explosion on June 8, would return in November.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.41% at 693.65 as rising COVID-19 cases and weak factory activity in China put the brakes on a rally that took prices to a five-month high on Monday. Copper surged more than 10% in the first two weeks of November as expectations for an easing of Chinese COVID controls and slower U.S. interest rate rises fuelled hopes that economic growth and metals demand would improve. But China, the biggest metals consumer, is not out of the woods yet. Daily COVID infections topped 5,000 for the first time, raising fears that localised lockdowns could widen. Data meanwhile showed slower-than-expected manufacturing growth in October and the first fall in retail sales in five months. JPMorgan cut its economic growth forecast for China this year to 2.9%. In a sign of improved supply, cash copper on the LME flipped to a $16 discount versus the three-month contract from a premium of more than $100 through much of September and October. Optimism was spilled over from Chinese equities, with easing COVID-19 rules sparking hopes for economic recovery. However, data from China showed property investment fell at a faster pace in January-October, while industrial output growth and retail sales both missed expectations, pointing to weakness in the world's top metal consumer. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.72% to settle at 5230 while prices are down -2.85 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 689.5 and below same could see a test of 685.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 699.9, a move above could see prices testing 706.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 685.3-706.1.
* Copper rally stalls as COVID spreads in China
* Data showed slower-than-expected manufacturing growth in October and the first fall in retail sales in five months.
* JPMorgan cut its economic growth forecast for China this year to 2.9%

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.74% at 275.7 as the zinc ingot social inventory added 2,200 mt on a weekly basis to 62,700 mt as of Monday November 14. China's industrial output rose 5.0% in October from a year earlier, slowing from the 6.3% pace seen in September, official data showed, as COVID-19 restrictions weighed on factory activity. Retail sales fell 0.5%, the first drop since May when Shanghai was under a city-wide lockdown. Analysts had expected retail sales to rise 1.0%, slowing from a 2.5% gain in September. Fixed asset investment expanded 5.8% in the first 10 months of 2022 from the same period a year earlier, versus expectations for a 5.9% rise. The People Bank of China (PBoC) partially rolled over maturing medium-term policy loans while maintaining the interest rate unchanged for the third month in a row. The central bank said in a statement that it was keeping the rate on CNY 850 billion (USD 120.21 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions unchanged at 2.75% from the prior operation. With CNY 1 trillion worth of MLF loans set to expire on the same day, the operation resulted in a net 150 billion yuan medium-term cash withdrawal through the instrument. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -16.01% to settle at 2524 while prices are down -2.05 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 272.6 and below same could see a test of 269.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 280.2, a move above could see prices testing 284.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 269.5-284.7.
* Zinc dropped as the zinc ingot social inventory added 2,200 mt on a weekly basis to 62,700 mt.
* China industrial output, retail sales miss expectations in Oct
* China keeps 1-year MLF rate at 2.75%

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.02% at 209.75 amid rising COVID-19 cases and weak factory activity in China. Optimism was spilled over from Chinese equities, with easing COVID-19 rules sparking hopes for economic recovery. However, data from China showed property investment fell at a faster pace in January-October, while industrial output growth and retail sales both missed expectations, pointing to weakness in the world's top metal consumer. China's primary aluminium production climbed 9.5% year-on-year in October, fuelled by growing exports and relaxed curbs on power consumption compared with last year. The country produced 3.45 million tonnes of primary aluminium last month, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, an eighth straight monthly rise versus 2021 numbers as the industry recovers from electricity usage restrictions last year that triggered sharp declines in output from the world's top producer. China exported 5.68 million tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium product in the first 10 months of the year, up 25% from the corresponding period a year ago, with booming overseas demand supporting domestic production. October's output was also up 0.9% from September's 3.42 million tonnes. For the first 10 months of the year, China produced 33.33 million tonnes, up 3.3% from the corresponding period in 2021, the data showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -11.39% to settle at 4846 while prices are down -0.05 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 208.2 and below same could see a test of 206.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 211.7, a move above could see prices testing 213.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 206.7-213.7.
* Aluminium prices dropped amid rising COVID-19 cases and weak factory activity in China.
* China industrial output, retail sales miss expectations in Oct
* China aluminium production up 9.5 % to 3.45 mln tonnes in Oct – stats bureau


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.25% at 953.8 as mentha exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent at 886.53 tonnes as compared to 1034.14 tonnes exported during Apr-Aug 2021. Exports in the month of August 2022 were around 238.04 tonnes as against 155.04 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 53.53%. In the month of August 2022 around 238.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 227.27 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rose of 4.74%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -2.9 Rupees to end at 1106.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.82% to settle at 863 while prices are down -2.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 949.4 and below same could see a test of 945 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 959, a move above could see prices testing 964.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 945-964.2.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -2.9 Rupees to end at 1106.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent
* August exports were around 238.04 tonnes showing a rise of 53.53% compared to July 2022.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.82% at 7570 on profit booking after prices gained in last some sessions as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. Arrivals has been dropped by 26% Y-o-Y due to lower production as about 11248 tonnes of turmeric arrived at APMC mandies across India in Sep’22 compared to 15758 tonnes of previous year for corresponding month. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, as on 06th October 2022 Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67% till date. Turmeric exports during Apr-August 2022 has rose by 15.35 percent at 74,393.62 tonnes as compared to 64,493.34 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,810.36 tonnes in July 2022 showing a drop of 5.17%. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 11,617.90 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 4.56%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7497.75 Rupees gained 15.85 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.5% to settle at 9215 while prices are down -140 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7468 and below same could see a test of 7368 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7700, a move above could see prices testing 7832.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7368-7832.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained in last some sessions as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops.
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7497.75 Rupees gained 15.85 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.52% at 24645 amid reports sowing started in some parts of Rajasthan as moisture conditions is less and completed around 5% to 10% in the key growing regions. Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions. However, due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing may be delayed by 10 to 15 days current year. Current year Jeera sowing is likely to start from October last week or November first week in Gujarat growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr-August 2022 has dropped by 26.44 percent at 91,505.49 tonnes as compared to 1,24,390.31 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes jeera was exported as against 19,866.18 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 18.74%. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,460.60 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 40.02%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -33.6 Rupees to end at 24414.05 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.15% to settle at 7101 while prices are down -130 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24455 and below same could see a test of 24265 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24830, a move above could see prices testing 25015.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24265-25015.
* Jeera dropped amid reports sowing started in some parts of Rajasthan as moisture conditions is less and completed around 5% to 10%
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -33.6 Rupees to end at 24414.05 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.61% at 32820 as cotton production is expected to fall dramatically in Telangana as a result of the four months of incessant rain and pest attacks. While cotton output is expected to be low, cotton quality is also likely to be affected by the same factors. Cotton farmers have demanded a minimum support price (MSP) of ?12,000 a quintal during the current season, saying the cost of production has increased significantly, while yields have dropped. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -200 Rupees to end at 33040 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.88% to settle at 2059 while prices are up 200 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 32480 and below same could see a test of 32140 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 33020, a move above could see prices testing 33220.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 32140-33220.
* Cotton prices gained as cotton production is expected to fall dramatically in Telangana
* The pink worm harmed the cotton flock and will have an impact on output.
* However, India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season, up 12% from a year ago
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -200 Rupees to end at 33040 Rupees.

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