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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.08% at 53850 paring gains as dollar jumped after data showed that U.S. employers added more jobs than expected in November while average hourly earnings also increased, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more incentive to raise interest rates. Employers added 263,000 jobs in November, well above estimates of 200,000. Average hourly earnings jumped by 0.6% in the month, above expectations for a 0.3% gain. US bond yields are set to close the week sharply lower after Fed Chairman Powell said that it may be appropriate to slow the pace of interest rate increases as there are recent data points to a slowdown in the US economy. Physical gold demand stalled in India on higher prices, while premiums fell in top consumer China as COVID restrictions dulled activity. Dealers in India were offering a discount of up to $18 an ounce this week over official domestic prices, down from the last week's $21. Meanwhile, supplies of "scrap" old jewellery and coins have risen sharply in the last few days as some consumers look to cash in on the higher prices. Premiums in China dropped to $2-$12 an ounce this week over benchmark spot prices from last week's $10-$15. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.53% to settle at 16511 while prices are down -43 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 53614 and below same could see a test of 53378 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 54027, a move above could see prices testing 54204.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 53378-54204.
* Gold pared gains to ended with losses as dollar jumped after data showed that U.S. employers added more jobs than expected in November
* The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose above the 3.6% mark from the two-month low of 3.5% touched on December 1st.
* Physical gold demand stalled in India on higher prices, while premiums fell in top consumer China as COVID restrictions dulled activity


Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 1.59% at 66449 amid expectations for a slowdown in monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. The dollar index jumped to 105.5, after a strong jobs report renewed expectations for higher interest rates. The US economy unexpectedly added 263K jobs in November of 2022, beating market forecasts of 200K, and following an upwardly revised 284K in October. For the week however, the greenback is still down more than 0.5%, as data showed US PCE inflation slowed to a ten-month low in October. Fed Chairman Powell stated that it is likely that the US central bank will slow the aggressiveness of rate hikes this month, easing demand for the dollar and driving investors toward bullion. Besides bullion, softer rate hikes in the US and a cut in the reserve ratio by the PBoC supported expectations of higher demand for industrial silver usage as electricity conductors, tracking the rebound for copper. Signs of low supply also supported prices, as New York’s COMEX inventories fell 70% in the last 18 months to just over 1 million tonnes. Also, the London Bullion Market Association stockpiles fell for the 10th straight month to a record-low 27.1 thousand tonnes in November. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 8.13% to settle at 20753 while prices are up 1040 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 65410 and below same could see a test of 64370 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67120, a move above could see prices testing 67790.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 64370-67790.
* Silver gains amid expectations for a slowdown in monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
* Signs of low supply also supported prices, as COMEX inventories fell 70% in the last 18 months to just over 1 million tonnes.
* The dollar index jumped to 105.5, after a strong jobs report renewed expectations for higher interest rates.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.87% at 6548 ahead of OPEC+ meet and ended the week with gains on signs of easing COVID-19 restrictions in China and the prospect of steady OPEC supply. Russian oil output could fall by 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) early in 2023 due to the EU ban on seaborne imports from Monday. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that the European Union's proposed price cap on Russian oil will not affect production in December. He was quoted as saying that Russia believes its oil will be in demand, although there is a lot of uncertainty. European Union governments have tentatively agreed to cap the price of seaborne Russian oil at $60 a barrel, with an adjustment mechanism to keep the cap at 5% below the market price. OPEC oil output has fallen in November, led by top exporter Saudi Arabia and other Gulf members, after the wider OPEC+ alliance pledged steep output cuts to support the market amid a worsening economic outlook. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)pumped 29.01 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, the survey found, down 710,000 bpd from October. In September, OPEC output had been the highest since 2020. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 15.12% to settle at 9974 while prices are down -125 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6476 and below same could see a test of 6404 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6664, a move above could see prices testing 6780.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6404-6780.
* Crudeoil dropped ahead of OPEC+ meet and ended the week with gains on signs of easing COVID-19 restrictions in China.
* Russian oil output could fall by 500,000 to 1 mbpd early in 2023 due to the EU ban on seaborne imports from Monday.
* Russia's Novak says EU price cap will not affect December oil production


Natural gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -5.57% at 523.9 ahead of OPEC+ meet and ended the week with gains on signs of easing COVID-19 restrictions in China and the prospect of steady OPEC supply. Russian oil output could fall by 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) early in 2023 due to the EU ban on seaborne imports from Monday. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that the European Union's proposed price cap on Russian oil will not affect production in December. He was quoted as saying that Russia believes its oil will be in demand, although there is a lot of uncertainty. European Union governments have tentatively agreed to cap the price of seaborne Russian oil at $60 a barrel, with an adjustment mechanism to keep the cap at 5% below the market price. OPEC oil output has fallen in November, led by top exporter Saudi Arabia and other Gulf members, after the wider OPEC+ alliance pledged steep output cuts to support the market amid a worsening economic outlook. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)pumped 29.01 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, the survey found, down 710,000 bpd from October. In September, OPEC output had been the highest since 2020. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 29.58% to settle at 11218 while prices are down -30.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 513.1 and below same could see a test of 502.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 543.4, a move above could see prices testing 562.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 502.2-562.8.
* Natural gas fell on a slightly smaller-than-expected storage draw and forecasts for less cold weather and lower gas demand
* EIA said utilities pulled 81 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Nov. 25.
* Freeport LNG has said it plans to start producing LNG again in mid-December and reach full capacity of about 2.1 bcfd in March.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.57% at 695.5 supported by hopes of a pickup in industrial demand and looming supply concerns. Expectations of demand for industrial inputs in the US improved after Fed Chair Powell signaled that the central bank may slow the pace of rate hikes this month, while the PBoC cut its reserve ratio by 25bps to stimulate the economy. In the meantime, Chinese authorities lifted a ban on equity refinancing for listed property developers, shortly after the country’s top banks extended $162 billion in fresh credit lines for the sector. On the supply side, lower output in South America continues to raise concerns of shortages in the near future, as top producer Chile mined 6% less copper in 2022, and mine protests in Peru hamper production. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows, with current inventories enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days. China's economy will keep growing at a reasonable speed with stable employment and prices, finance minister Liu Kun said in a speech at the ASEAN plus Three Economic Cooperation and Financial Stability Forum. The Chinese government will continue to implement the policy package and strive to realise the goal of creating 11 million new urban jobs, Liu said. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.1% to settle at 5481 while prices are up 3.95 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 688.5 and below same could see a test of 681.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 699.8, a move above could see prices testing 704.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 681.4-704.
* Copper rose supported by hopes of a pickup in industrial demand and looming supply concerns.
* Expectations of demand for industrial inputs in the US improved
* China's economy will keep growing at reasonable speed

Zinc

ZincZinc yesterday settled up by 0.53% at 272.5 as zinc ingot social inventory across seven major markets in China totalled 51,100 mt as of December 2, down 3,400 mt from this Monday (November 28) and down 1,600 mt from a week earlier (November 25). In Shanghai, the arrivals in the market were still rather low, while the downstream enterprises were also unwilling to stock up after the zinc price rises advanced. Tianjin will resume the normal operation to the full extent, indicating easing pandemic control measures in China. Pressure also seen weighed down by a stronger dollar and as a spike in Covid-19 cases in top consumer China clouded the demand outlook. China imported 1,007 mt of refined zinc in October, down 77.55% on the month and 97.54% on the year. Still, concerns persist about the possibility of further supply disruptions in Europe amid uncertainty around shortages of energy. Numerous European zinc producers had to either shut down their smelters entirely or cut production down this year due to high energy costs and low inventories. Meanwhile, the Budel smelter of Nyrstar was planning to resume production partially this month, and giant Glencore said it expects to resume production in the first quarter of 2023. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.76% to settle at 3141 while prices are up 1.45 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 269.2 and below same could see a test of 265.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 274.5, a move above could see prices testing 276.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 265.9-276.5.
* Zinc gained as zinc ingot social inventory in China dropped 3,400 mt in a week
* Tianjin will resume the normal operation to the full extent, indicating easing pandemic control measures in China.
* China imported 1,007 mt of refined zinc in October, down 77.55% on the month and 97.54% on the year.



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.42% at 214.1 on a slightly smaller-than-expected storage draw and forecasts for less cold weather and lower gas demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 81 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Nov. 25. Last week's decrease cut stockpiles to 3.483 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 2.4% below the five-year average of 3.569 tcf for this time of the year. The Biden administration urged the U.S. Senate to quickly pass a bill to block a potentially crippling railroad strike, warning that the impact could be felt within days. Freeport LNG has said it plans to start producing LNG again in mid-December and reach full capacity of about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in March. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to a record 99.5 bcfd in November, up from 99.2 bcfd in October. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 115.9 bcfd this week to 123.6 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.86% to settle at 7335 while prices are up 3 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 210.1 and below same could see a test of 205.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 217.5, a move above could see prices testing 220.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 205.9-220.7.
* Aluminum gains amid declining inventories and Smelters in northern China are cutting output to reduce pollution during the winter.
* However, risk appetites dimmed after data showed that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in 2-1/2 years in November
* Globally, factory output fell in countries including China, Japan and South Korea, although the downturn eased in Europe.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.2% at 950.1 as mentha exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent at 1,107.20 tonnes as compared to 1,285.12 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 238.04 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 7.30%. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 250.97 tonnes in September 2021 showing a drop of 12.07%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -17 Rupees to end at 1096.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.2% to settle at 924 while prices are down -1.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 946.6 and below same could see a test of 943.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 954.7, a move above could see prices testing 959.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 943.1-959.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -17 Rupees to end at 1096.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha prices dropped as exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent
* In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported showing a drop of 7.30%.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.14% at 7170 on short covering after prices dropped in recent sessions amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of Turmeric supply form Marathwada region. Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years. Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar said unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67%. Turmeric exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has rose by 14.65 percent at 88,384.27 tonnes as compared to 77,091.52 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,147.89 tonnes in August 2022 showing a rise of 15.16%. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,598.15 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 11.05%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7377.25 Rupees gained 14.05 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.25% to settle at 8040 while prices are up 10 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7142 and below same could see a test of 7112 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7210, a move above could see prices testing 7248.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7112-7248.
* Turmeric gained on short covering after prices dropped in recent sessions amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of supply.
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7377.25 Rupees gained 14.05 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.46% at 25120 as current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions. However downside seen limited amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has dropped by 21.28 percent at 1,09,587.28 tonnes as compared to 1,39,218.38 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes jeera was exported as against 24,448.33 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 26.04%. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,828.07 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 21.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 136.75 Rupees to end at 24972.7 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.77% to settle at 4902 while prices are down -115 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24720 and below same could see a test of 24325 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25555, a move above could see prices testing 25995.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24325-25995.
* Jeera dropped as current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 136.75 Rupees to end at 24972.7 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.48% at 31900 as India’s domestic cotton demand for the 2022-23 season up to September is estimated to be lower by about 18 lakh bales (170 kg each) at 300 lakh bales or nearly 6 per cent less than last year’s 318 lakh bales. According to the Punjab Mandi Board data, cotton crop has seen the slowest arrival in the last five years even as the average rate is the highest since 2018. Punjab is expected to have produced 20 lakh quintals against 29 lakh quintals produced in the 2021-22 season. Arrivals are lower as farmers are holding cotton in anticipation of higher prices in the near term. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. The latest US Department of Agriculture cotton projections for 2022/23 indicated a slight increase from 2021/22 for world cotton production and lower global demand estimates for 2022/2023. Production in the US, the world’s largest exporter of cotton, was seen about 1.5% higher, at 14.0 million bales, as a decrease in the Southwest is more than offset by increases elsewhere. Meanwhile, global cotton consumption is projected to be 650,000 bales lower this month, with a 300,000-bale cut to mill use in Pakistan and Bangladesh. In spot market, Cotton gained by 90 Rupees to end at 33030 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.16% to settle at 2719 while prices are down -480 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 31550 and below same could see a test of 31210 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 32400, a move above could see prices testing 32910.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 31210-32910.
* Cotton dropped as India’s domestic cotton demand for the 2022-23 season is estimated to be lower by about 18 lakh bales.
* USDA cotton projections for 2022/23 indicated a slight increase from 2021/22 for world cotton
* Punjab’s cotton crop has seen the slowest arrival in the last five years even as the average rate is the highest since 2018.
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 90 Rupees to end at 33030 Rupees.

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