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HDFC Securities

Published on 21/09/2021 10:21:27 AM

Nifty Futures’ where Open Interest fell by 5% with Nifty falling by 1.07%   - HDFC Securities

F&O HIGHLIGHTS

LONG UNWINDING IS SEEN IN THE NIFTY FUTURES

REMAIN CAUTIOUS TILL NIFTY CLOSES ABOVE 17500 LEVELS; SUPPORT SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF 17200-17300

* Nifty fell sharply on the back of weak global cues to end the day with the losses of 188 points at 17397 levels.

* Long unwinding is seen in Nifty Futures’, where Open Interest fell by 5% with Nifty falling by 1.07%

* On the other hand, Short build up was seen in Bank Nifty Futures’ where Open Interest rose by 11% with Bank Nifty falling by 1.80%

* Nifty Open Interest Put Call Ratio fell sharply to 0.98 levels from 1.15 levels. Amongst the Nifty options (23-Sep Expiry), Put writing IS seen at 17200-17300 levels, Indicating Nifty is likely to find support in the vicinity of 17200 - 17300 levels. On the higher side, an immediate resistance is seen in the vicinity of 17500 - 17600 levels where we have seen Call writing.

* Long unwinding was seen by FIIS’ in the Index Futures segment where they net sold worth Rs 2560 Cr with their Open Interest going down by 4704 contracts.

To Sum It Up, Long unwinding in the Nifty Futures, short build up in the Bank Nifty futures, fall in the Nifty Put call ratio on the back of Call writing at 17500 - 17600 levels and long unwinding by FIIs in the Index futures segment Indicates that one should be cautious for the market till Nifty closes above 17500 levels.

On the other hand, considering the oversold PCR as it has fallen below one and put writing at 17200-17300, we believe that Nifty may find strong support in the vicinity of 17200- 17300 levels.

In the Bank Nifty, where we have seen short build up, our advice is to remain cautious till it closes above 36500 levels. Support is seen in the vicinity of 36800-37000 levels.

 

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HDFC Securities

Published on 21/09/2021 10:18:36 AM

Daily Technical View on Nifty

Nifty : Consolidation

* On 17th Sep 2021, Nifty registered fresh all time high at 17792 and reversed south. Nifty fell almost 2.5% from the recent top and closed on a weak wicket.

* Nifty violated the short term support of its 5 days EMA but still maintaining its level above 10 and 20 days EMA supports.

• Higher tops and higher bottoms are also well intact on the short term charts.

* RSI on the daily chart has exited the overbought zone and crossed the signal line on the down side but there is no sign of negative divergence is seen as of yet on the benchmark indices like Nifty and BankNifty.

* Previous swing low support is placed at 17254, which can act as an immediate support for the Nifty. RSI getting in to the overbought zone is not the sign of trend reversal.

* In the current market condition, we expect IT and FMCG sector to outperform, while sectors like Pharma and Metal may still remain under pressure.

* Most of the Derivative stock closed on a weak wicket and they are expected to extend the correction in the coming sessions.

* Considering the technical evidences discussed above, we expect the ongoing correction to extend towards 17250 and 17000 levels.

 

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HDFC Securities

Published on 21/09/2021 10:18:19 AM

Indian markets could open flat to mildly higher, in line with mildly higher Asian markets today and despite sharply negative US markets on Monday..…

U.S. stocks tumbled Monday, but finished well above session lows, as investors parsed the potential impact of a reeling property developer in China and traders positioned ahead of a two-day meeting of Federal Reserve policy makers that begins Tuesday. U.S. stocks closed lower Monday, but retraced significant earlier losses in the final hour of trade.

A downturn in China’s property market, which suffered heavy losses Monday with shares of China Evergrande falling 13% in Hong Kong, were blamed for dragging down U.S. and global equities. Markets were closed in mainland China for a holiday, but the Hang Seng dropped over 3%.

The discord in Washington, including over President Joe Biden’s planned $3.5 trillion spending plan could mean “volatility is here for now.”

Shares in Asia-Pacific recovered from lows in Tuesday morning trade as investors continue to monitor the situation surrounding embattled developer China Evergrande Group.

Nifty closed lower for the second consecutive session on Sept 20 due to concerns over troubles at Evergrande China likely to impact the global risk appetite. At close, the Nifty was down 1889 points or 1.07% to 17397.

Nifty has fallen sharply on Sept 20, raising fears of the beginning of an intermediate correction. 17303 is the next support for the Nifty, while the 17444-17533 band could provide resistance on upmoves.

Carlyle to sell 3.4% stake in SBI Cards for US$ 443mn: Private equity firm Carlyle Group will nearly halve its stake in SBI Cards and Payment Services for around Rs 3,267 crore, according to deal terms. CA Rover Holdings, a Carlyle entity, which as of Jun, 2021 held a 6.5% stake in the credit card issuer, will sell around 32 million shares, or a 3.4% stake in the company, through a block trade.

 

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HDFC Securities

Published on 17/09/2021 10:59:12 AM

Daily Technical View on Nifty

Nifty : Continuation of an Uptrend

* After breaking out from the consolidation, Nifty continued to rally upwards for the second consecutive session

* Nifty registered a fresh all time high at 17644 and closed near day’s high

* BankNifty showed significant outperformance over Nifty by rising more than 2.2%

* Private and PSU bank both performed very well in the session and helped the BankNifty to surpass previous all time high of 37708.

* Despite the strength in Benchmark Indices, Breadth of the market remained negative at NSE with 9:10 advance –decline ratio

* BankNifty closed on a very strong wicket and it looks like that, the rally would continue with rising momentum.

* RSI oscillator has reached overbought zone on daily and hourly chart but there is no sign of negative divergence, which can be considered bullish.

* Daily ADX indicator has been rising for Nifty and BankNifty both, which indicates the strong momentum

* Traders should follow the levels given in the table above and keep on trailing the stoplosses in trading long positions.

 

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HDFC Securities

Published on 17/09/2021 10:58:56 AM

Indian markets could open higher, in line with positive Asian markets today and despite flat US markets on Thursday - HDFC Securities

U.S. stock benchmarks finished an up-and-down day mixed, with the Nasdaq Composite managing to register a slight gain, as August retail sales showed an unexpected rise and a measure of activity in the Federal Reserve’s Philadelphia district came in stronger than expected. Data showed August retail sales rose 0.7%, defying forecasts for a 0.7% fall. Excluding autos, sales jumped 1.8%, compared with expectations for a rise of 0.2%. Separately, the Philadelphia Fed’s activity index jumped to 30.7 in September from 19.4 a month earlier. At the same time, data showed first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected in the week ending Sept. 11 (+20000 to 332000 vs 320000 expected), though continuing claims fell.

Markets dipped globally on Thursday as concerns about investments in China and a down day on Wall Street outweighed positive economic data in the United States. International investors that have been piling into China in recent years are now bracing for one of its great falls as the troubles of over-indebted property giant China Evergrande come to a head. The developer's woes have been snowballing since May. Dwindling resources set against 2 trillion yuan ($305 billion) of liabilities have wiped nearly 80% off its stock and bond prices, and an $80 million bond coupon payment now looms next week.

The Union Cabinet on September 16 approved a government guarantee of up to Rs 30,600 crore for security receipts to be issued by National Asset Reconstruction Company Ltd (NARCL). Security receipts represent an undivided right or interest in a financial asset. Typically, asset reconstruction companies or a bad bank buy distressed assets paying 15 percent cash and the balance 85 percent in security receipts. Asian stocks were steady early Friday as traders weighed risks from China to the global recovery and the prospect of reduced Federal Reserve stimulus.

Nifty closed at record highs for the third consecutive session on Sept 16 aided by Banks & FMCG shares. At close the Nifty was up 0.63% or 110 points at 17630. Nifty continued to march upwards on Sept 16; however, the advance decline ratio has fallen below 1:1 denoting profit taking across the broader markets. Sector and stock rotation among the largecaps is witnessed. 17740 is the next target for the Nifty while 17519 could be the support for the near term.

 

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HDFC Securities

Published on 17/09/2021 10:58:22 AM

Nifty Open Interest Put Call Ratio rose to 1.51 levels from 1.47 levels - HDFC Securities

F&O HIGHLIGHTS

LONG BUILD UP IS SEEN IN THE BANK NIFTY FUTURES

REMAIN BULLISH WITH STOP LOSS OF 17500 IN NIFTY AND 37300 IN BANK NIFTY

* Nifty closed at record highs for the third consecutive session on Sept 16 aided by Banks & FMCG shares. At close the Nifty was up 0.63% or 110 points at 17630.

* Long build up was seen in Nifty Futures’, where Open Interest rose by 1% with Nifty rising by 0.63%

* Long build up was seen in Bank Nifty Futures’ too where Open Interest rose by 6% with Bank Nifty rising by 2.20%

* Nifty Open Interest Put Call Ratio rose to 1.51 levels from 1.47 levels. Amongst the Nifty options (23-Sep Expiry), Put writing was seen at 17500-17600 levels, Indicating Nifty is likely to find support in the vicinity of 17500 - 17600 levels. On the higher side, an immediate resistance is seen in the vicinity of 17700 - 17800 levels where we have seen Call writing.

* Short covering was seen by FIIS’ in the Index Futures segment where they net bough worth Rs 235 Cr with their Open Interest going down by 5594 contracts.

To Sum It Up, Long build up in the Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, rise in the NIfty Put call ratio on the back of Put writing at 17500 - 17600 levels and short covering by FIIs in the Index futures segment, Indicates that one should continue to remain optimistic for the markets.

Therefore, our advise is to remain bullish with trailing SL of 17500 level.

In the Bank Nifty, where we have seen long build up, our advice is to remain bullish with trailing SL of 37300 level.

 

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Please refer disclaimer at https://www.hdfcsec.com/article/disclaimer-1795
SEBI Registration number is INZ000171337

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