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Published on 08-12-2025 10:27 am

Market Outlook

Nifty continues to trade with a positive undertone as it holds above the rising trendline and key short-term supports near 25,900– 25,950. The index has resumed its higher-high, higher-low structure after the recent consolidation, indicating that the broader uptrend remains intact. Momentum indicators are also supportive, with RSI sustaining above the 60 mark, reflecting underlying strength. A decisive move above the 26,250–26,300 resistance zone could open the door for fresh upside, while dips are likely to attract buying interest near supports.

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Published on 08-12-2025 10:27 am

Nifty Bank : 59777

Technical Outlook

Week that was:

Bank Nifty extended its winning streak for the sixth consecutive week, closing at 59735,(0.03%). The Nifty Private Bank Index echoed this strength, ending the week at 28,848, underscoring the sustained leadership of banking stocks in the ongoing market uptrend

Technical Outlook:

* Bank Nifty opened the week on a positive note and strongly rebounded from 20-day EMA coinciding with rising channel suggesting buying demand at support base. The weekly price action formed a small bear candle with a higher-high, higher-low pattern for the sixth straight week, highlighting the prevailing strength of the trend

* Over the past 13 weeks, Bank Nifty has surged ~12%, clearly outperforming the 7.5% gain in the Nifty50 and reinforcing the sector’s strengthening leadership within the broader market. Going ahead, we expect the index to retain its higher-high, higher-low trajectory within the rising channel and move towards the revised target of 60,500 over the coming month.

* Momentum oscillators continue to reflect a bullish bias, while short and medium-term moving averages remain in a steady upward slope, validating the ongoing trend. Any temporary pullback should be treated as a buying opportunity in high-quality banking names, particularly those that delivered solid Q2 earnings, as immediate support is placed near 58,600, corresponding with the 50% retracement of the current advance (57,157–60,114).

* Historically, in the past two decades, there have been 17 instances where Bank Nifty delivered double-digit gains within four months after a decisive breakout above its previous two-month high. The current structure has once again confirmed such a breakout surpassing both the prior two-month high and the previous all-time peak (57,628), indicating a high-probability continuation setup for sustained upside momentum in the months ahead

* The PSU Bank Index has witnessed profit booking forming lower high lower low, after a 13-week higher-high, higher-low formation signaling halt in ongoing uptrend. The steep run-up has pushed stochastic indicators into overbought territory on weekly and monthly charts, raising odds of a nearterm consolidation. Nevertheless, pullbacks should be viewed as accumulation opportunities, with strong support around 7,900, aligning with the 38.2% retracement of the 6,730–8,665 rally and the 50-day EMA

* Intraday Rational:

* Trend- Supportive efforts in the vicinity of 20-day EMA with Higher-high-low formation from past three consecutive session

* Levels Buy on declines near 80% retracement of Fridays upmove(59556- 59680)

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Published on 08-12-2025 10:26 am

Nifty :26186

Technical Outlook

Week that was…

Index extended consolidation in the vicinity of All Time High over third consecutive week and settled the week on a flat note at 26186 as deprecating rupee weighed on the market sentiment. Broader markets notably lagged, with Midcaps down 0.80% and Smallcaps slipping 2%. Sectorally, beaten-down IT stocks roared back by gaining >3% coupled with traction in auto and metal stocks while PSU banks took a much-needed breather

Technical Outlook:

* Consequently, weekly price action formed a small bear candle with lower shadow, highlighting elevated buying demand.

* The elevated buying demand from 20 days EMA coincided with 10 weeks rising trend line is reaffirming the market’s underlying strength that would pave the way to challenge All Time High of 26300. RBI’s dovish stance boosted market sentiment that helped index to recoup intra-week losses amid depreciating rupee. A decisive breakout above 26,300 could recharge the rally and set the stage for 26,800 in the coming weeks.

* The lack of follow through strength above 26300 would result into prolonged consolidation in 26300-25700 range amid elevated volatility ahead of upcoming Fed policy and inflation print. Hence, dips should be utilized to accumulate quality stocks as key support is placed at 25700 as it is 61.8% retracement of Nov-Dec rally (25318-26325) coincided with 50 days EMA.

* Mirroring the benchmark move, Nifty midcap index has been consolidating after clocking a fresh All Time High. The ratio chart of Nifty Midcap vs Nifty 500 has formed a cup & handle pattern. Breakout would confirm outperformance of midcap stocks with Nifty 500 universe in the coming weeks

Key Monitorable for the next week:

* US–India Trade Talks: A visiting US trade delegation may unlock breakthroughs. A positive outcome could boost market sentiment and possibly bring FIIs back

* Fed Rate Decision

* India CPI Print

* US Dollar Index: Breakdown from 10 weeks rising channel confirms resumption of decline in US Dollar index. Follow through weakness bodes well for emerging markets

* Rupee Watch: Indian Rupee is approaching upper band of 7 years rising channel, indicating impending trend reversal which would help to revive the market sentiment

* Intraday Rational:

* Trend- Supportive efforts in the vicinity of 20-day EMA with Higher-highlow formation from past three consecutive session.

* Levels: Buy on declines near 80% retracement of Fridays upmove(26152- 26200).

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Published on 08-12-2025 10:12 am

Key Highlights:

NIFTY SPOT: 26186.45 (0.59%)

TRADING ZONE:

Resistance: 26325 (Life High) and 26450 (Key Resistance).

Support: 26050 (Pivot Level) and 25900 (Key Support).

BROADER MARKET: MIXED MIDCAP 150: 60594.6 (0.49%),

SMALLCAP 250: 17507.75 (-0.57%)

VIEW: Bullish till above 25900 (Key Support).

BANKNIFTY SPOT: 59777.2 (0.82%)

TRADING ZONE:

Resistance: 60114 (Life High) / 60500 (Key Resistance)

Support: 59400 (Pivot Level) / 59000 (Key Support)

VIEW: Bullish till above 59000 (Key Support)

Government Security Market:

* The Inter-bank call money rate traded in the range of 4.60%- 5.50% on Friday ended at 5.00%.

* The 10 year benchmark (6.48% GS 2035) closed at 6.4944% on Friday Vs 6.5132% on Thursday .

Global Debt Market

U.S. Treasury yields moved lower on Friday as investors awaited a key inflation report from September and looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week. At 4:35 a.m. ET, the 10-year Treasury yield fell by less than a basis point to 4.104%, while the 30-year Treasury yield was little changed at 4.763%. The 2-year Treasury yield was also flat at 3.523%. The key data point on Friday will be the delayed personal consumption expenditures index for September, known as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which investors will parse through for insights on the state of the U.S. economy. This will be the first PCE report since the 43-day U.S. government shutdown. The University of Michigan will also release its consumer sentiment survey for December on Friday. Investors are looking for signs of a softening labor market, which could influence the Fed to lower interest rates at its Federal Open Market Committee meeting from December 9-10 next week. One report from job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that layoffs, AI and tariffs contributed to job cuts soaring to over 1 million for the year. Meanwhile, the ADP report on Wednesday recorded a decline in private payrolls, with private companies cutting 32,000 workers in November. However, weekly jobless claims fell to 191,000 for the week ending Nov. 29, the lowest since September 2022. Economists had expected new jobless claims of 220,000 in the latest week. Traders are currently pricing in an 87% chance of a quarter point cut next Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

10 Year Benchmark Technical View :

The 10 year Benchmark (6.48% GS 2035) yield likely to move in the range of 6.48% to 6.51% level on Monday.

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Published on 08-12-2025 10:12 am

Economic News

* Govt promises time-bound fixes after ORR firms flag mobility, Infra gaps: Industry leaders met with IT-BT minister Priyank Kharge regarding Outer Ring Road infrastructure issues. Concerns included metro connectivity, service roads, traffic, and telecom disruptions. Kharge assured prompt action and pledged Rs 450 crore for road upgrades. The government will also replicate this engagement model for other business corridors. Improved coordination among agencies is expected to speed up solutions.

Global News

* Japan’s steep drop in household spending clouds outlook ahead of BOJ’s expected rate hike: Japan’s household spending dropped 3% YoY in October its steepest fall in nearly two years raising concerns about the economic outlook just as the Bank of Japan weighs a December rate hike. The decline, driven by reduced spending on food, entertainment, and auto-related items, also marked a 3.5% MoM drop against expectations of growth. While officials say consumption remains in a recovery phase, the data adds uncertainty to the BOJ’s policy path. Despite inflation and a weak yen pushing the board toward a December hike, economists warn that soft consumption could limit future increases and may even trigger further yen depreciation if markets sense tightening will stall.

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