Geojit Financial Services Ltd.

Published on 22/01/2021 10:41:40 AM

F&O OUTLOOK

Nifty outlook

FIIs raised their longs bets in index future by 13.8%, while cutting shorts by 0.47%. Following expiry of the last weekly contract of the month, FIIs hold the highest OI in put longs and lowest in call shorts. In the broad market option spectrum, traders boosted long positions in both calls and puts in the monthly contract. With just a week to expire, this points to an expectation towards expansion in trading range. Calls were boosted the most at 15200 followed by 14700, while puts were boosted the most at 14600, followed by 14700 and 13500 in the monthly contract. In the Feb weekly, calls were short the most at 14800and5300, but the contract is yet to get enough activity to be a directional indicator. The Feb weekly puts found more interest than calls, and attracted mostly longs, with OI increasing the most at 14200 followed by 14700 and 14000. Traders thus are positioning towards a 5% move, with just a week to budget.

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Geojit Financial Services Ltd.

Published on 22/01/2021 10:35:49 AM

Nifty Outlook:

The close back above 14630, and the hammer thereof, diminishes the chances of collapse that was threatened by the sharp drop yesterday in the closing hour. Until a close below 14560 is seen, we would continue to entertain the 15200 view. Expect 14700 to resist early upsides though.

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Geojit Financial Services Ltd.

Published on 21/01/2021 10:57:58 AM

Nifty Outlook:

The move towards 15000-15200 is in play, with intermediate objective at 14730. Inability to push past this, or a slippage past 14560 diminish the upside prospects, but it may take a break of 14460/40 for downsides to gain momentum.

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Geojit Financial Services Ltd.

Published on 21/01/2021 9:57:23 AM

F&O OUTLOOK

Nifty outlook

Though fresh puts on Nifty puts continued to be shorts, calls were largely sold yesterday. The highest such increase along weekly was seen at 14750 and 14650, with its expiry falling today, while monthly calls were sold the most at 15000, followed by 15200. Highest OI along weekly was at 14700, while along monthly, it was at 15000. Meanwhile, the proportion of longs in the index future portfolio of FIIs fell to 63.6, after they cut 8.46% of their longs, while boosting shorts by 7.47%. Among index options, they boosted call shorts by 11%, while cutting put shorts by 1.2%. All of this appears counter intuitive to the uptrend seen in Nifty, but it must be noted that there was a sharp fall in IVs in the last two days.

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