Geojit Financial Services Ltd.

Published on 9/07/2020 10:28:33 AM

F&O OUTLOOK

Nifty outlook

Weekly contract saw the highest volume and OI build at 10800, despite the late hour collapse, while Puts found the maximum OI build at 10550 and most liquidity at 10700 strikes. Meanwhile, monthly contract found the largest call short build up along 11200, while PE long build up was seen at 10700. Puts were the most active at 10500, but there was no evidence of further PE strikes being prominent enough to suggest bears taking full control, but 10000 strike continues to remain among the top 3 liquid strikes. This suggest that while bears continue to hurt the bulls every now and then, it is too early to say that bulls are prepared to leave the stage entirely.

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Published on 9/07/2020 10:23:03 AM

Nifty Outlook:

The approach of 200SMA did discourage the bulls, leading to a collapse in the closing hour. While this has deflated the ongoing momentum, the ongoing moves are still capable of drawing bullish continuation patterns, The oscillators look less wound up now, and appear neutral enough to allow for moves either way. While favoured view continues to expect the 200SMA at 10880 to be dismantled and aim for 11200, a push below 10650 could tilt the bias severely in favour of bears aiming 10500-10200, with a high likelihood of 10000 remaining intact.

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Geojit Financial Services Ltd.

Published on 8/07/2020 10:28:32 AM

F&O OUTLOOK

Nifty outlook

We had noted yesterday that positive bets taken by FIIs was fast moving into an unsustainable position in terms of the proportion of index future longs as well as index future calls in their mix. This is now at stable levels, but put shorts looks to have moved to a two month peak.

Meanwhile, the volatility yesterday prompted call fresh short addition in most strikes, but the most active strikes, 11000 and 10800. Meanwhile, puts were the most active along 10500, and found the max OI change at 10000 with most strikes seeing short put addition, suggesting that traders are still betting on upsides. Similar trend was seen along the weekly that is expiring tomorrow, but the rise in OI at 10950 calls and 10650 puts suggest a tightly fought market. Expect short strangles or similar short strategies to take predominance over directional ploys in the coming days, as Nifty approaches 200DMA.

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Published on 8/07/2020 9:58:07 AM

Nifty Outlook:

Yesterday saw a few nervous moments, but the dips found buying interest from 10700/680 region precisely on anticipated lines, and bounce thereof reaching for 10800. The 200SMA at 10880 continues to act as a magnet, but with momentum in favour of upsides, there is a fair chance of this mark being exceeded without much of a struggle, and aim for 11160/200. Alternatively, inability to float above 10745 could bring in volatility, but a vertical drop is less expected.

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Published on 7/07/2020 10:31:43 AM

Nifty outlook

With Nifty making large strides in the last few days, call option activity has moved into the 11000-11500 region, with 11300 seeing the highest build and 11000 remaining the most liquid. Short addition in puts was concentrated in the ATM neighbourhood, especially 10700, while 10000 strike attracted the maximum volume. Weekly contracts looked more eager, with call longs unwound from 10700 and added to 10800, while puts were most active along 10600 and 10700.

FIIs meanwhile, added index future longs for the fifth consecutive day, yesterday seeing a 12% build. To go along with it, index call longs were boosted by a massive 21%, while index put shorts were boosted by nearly 20%. This thus reveals a heavy positive bias, with some of the segments at levels that are about to become unsustainable.

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Published on 7/07/2020 10:30:26 AM

Nifty Outlook:

The approach of 200DMA will give Nifty a few giddy moments. Though favoured view expects that to be broken ultimately, it would be prudent to watch out for sudden loss in upside confidence. For now, 10700/680 will support, but those who have been playing the uptrend for a while, would do well not to exit entirely until 10520/450 is breached, as a larger upmove towards 11200-700 is still pending.

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Published on 6/07/2020 10:22:42 AM

F&O OUTLOOK

Nifty outlook

FIIs boosted their index long future positions by nearly 12%,the fourth day of consecutive builds, while Index short future covering was limited to 2.8%. Meanwhile, along options, the highest build after the weekly expiry was seen along put longs which was boosted by 8.5%.

Along the broad market spectrum, 10600, the ATM found the highest liquidity among Nifty calls, but the largest jump in OI was seen in 11000 in the 09Jul weekly, while puts found the largest interest at 10400, exaggerating the positive bias. On the other hand,10600 found the highest position build among the monthly calls, while 11000 was the most liquid strike. However, from 10700 and upto 11500, short built was visible. Along puts, 10500 is the most liquid, while 10400 found the most short addition. However, on the whole, put strike activity is seen coming closer to spot, lending a volatility bias to the calls.

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Published on 6/07/2020 10:16:43 AM

Nifty Outlook:

Despite Friday witnessing flat trades centred around 10600, the continuation patterns visible through last week suggests that the opening moves could ride on the present momentum and aim for 10715-30. The 10900 view, with possible extension into 11200-11700 is still potent, but we will follow such levels with due acknowledgement to a bearish pattern emerging in the form of an ascending wedge.

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Published on 3/07/2020 9:33:02 AM

F&O OUTLOOK

Nifty outlook

Among call strikes, 11000 continues to be the most active while 10500 saw short covering, but the noteworthy was how the far OTMs are finding long build up, suggesting that traders are increasingly turning bullish. Along puts, 10000 continues to be the most liquid strike, but 10200 and 10500 found hefty short addition, suggesting that the base is attempting to shift higher. Meanwhile, FIIs continued to pile on index future longs which saw a build of 15% to go with 12.6 and 10.3% build in the last two days, while index future shorts were covered, thereby reducing their positions by 10%. Thus generally, market has become long heavy, as compared to a week back.

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Published on 2/07/2020 9:46:24 AM

F&O OUTLOOK

Nifty outlook

Most of the call OTMs found fresh long build up, while NTMs saw short covering. Calls were the highest at 11000 and puts at 10000, drawing a 1000 point range. This is not a bullish sign, but does for a brief continuation of upsides. The weekly contract due for expiry today has not found much call interest above 10650, but even that is a bold positioning, given there is no time value. Puts, however were more active, mostly around 10400 through 10300, which have found short build up. Not surprisingly, FIIs are also seen similarly positioned with a bulk of yesterday’s money having gone into put shorts, whose positions have risen 10.5%. Index future longs, whose critically low figures were noted the day before yesterday, have also found favour from FIIs, whose proportion has gone by 12.6% to go with a 10% rise the day before. So, there is a clear shift in bias towards upsides, but not much to suggest momentum.

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