Published on 29/10/2020 10:35:02 AM
Nifty Outlook:
The expectations towards a test of 12000 was diffused prematurely, with Nifty turning from 11929 yesterday and revisiting 11700. This forces us to have a relook at the 11300-10500 view that we had discussed on 27th. However, a collapse is less expected for the day, atleast as long as 11661- 11585 holds firm.
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Published on 29/10/2020 10:34:22 AM
F&O OUTLOOK
Nifty outlook
Put OI in 29Oct contracts increased the most at 11450 followed by 11650, while the 11500 remained the strike with the max OI concentration. However, the first Nov weekly found fresh put buying interest as deep as 10900, which is a strong bearish statement. Meanwhile, short positions of FIIs in index futures rose a whopping 34% taking the proportion of longs in this segment to 47%, a massive climb down from the 71% prevailing at the start of the month. . This is an extreme position to have going into the expiry day. Among index options, positive bets continue to be 47% of the segment, while short positions, which are margin heavy have rose to 41.7%, the highest of this month. Bulk of this could be call shorts, whose OI rose 19.5% yesterday. In all, given the fact traders are already positioned heavily in favour of bears, further downside momentum may be found lacking today, given the expiry of October series.
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Published on 28/10/2020 10:53:00 AM
F&O OUTLOOK
Nifty outlook
12150 saw the highest jump in OI, but 12500, the strike with the highest OI, as well as 11900, the strike with highest volume, saw short build up along calls. Among puts, the highest OI jump was seen at 11800. Meanwhile, a 22% boost to index shorts, projects a bold positioning by FIIs with just a couple of days to expiry. With this the index longs constitute just 54% of the index futures, a far cry from the 71% seen early this month. However, a 11% increase in call longs as well as a 22% rise in put shorts suggest that FIIs are hedged adequately for a positive surprise as well. In all, the chances of a one sided move look limited.
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Published on 28/10/2020 10:52:04 AM
Nifty Outlook:
The upswing as well as the tussle inside the 11845-11868 yesterday, evolved on anticipated lines. Also, the push above the this region in the closing hour was not surprising, as we had chosen to play down the threats of a directional downside. However, we remain equally non committal on directional upside as well, and the gains of yesterday are sure to see some profit booking. We are likely to begin the day answering the questions posed by 11840-11800 region before making a move. A collapse is still not a favoured move, but while the prospects of a directional upside look limited, 12000 is indeed an achievable target for the day. However inability to float above 11800 will give upper hand to volatility.
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