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Published on 24-04-2024 10:59 am

Market Roundup 

The overnight recovery in the equities and retracement in the dollar index bodes well for the Asian currencies. The Indian rupee is expected to open slightly higher following stronger peers. The forward markets suggest spot USDINR opening around 83.30 from the previous 83.39

The rupee remained resilient in the past few months as the central bank has been actively intervening in the forex market, which is reflected in the monthly publication of the central bank. In February, the RBI net bought $8.56bn of foreign currency and the net forward outstanding position stood at $9.69bn.

On Tuesday, spot USDINR depreciated 3 paise to 83.34 in a lacklustre session. The pair has been trading in the tight range amid low volatility and upbeat economic data.

Stocks in Asia advanced after a US rally in tech heavyweights, whose high-stakes earnings are considered by Wall Street investors a major test of the equities bull run.

The dollar registered its worst day in at least a month after US purchasing manager readings for April missed forecasts, showing business activity expanded at the slowest pace this year. The pound outpaced its other G-10 peers after hawkish comments from Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill and UK data showed an economy gathering momentum.

The yen rose to day’s high after Nikkei Asia reported that Bank of Japan policymakers will focus on the weakening Japanese currency at their upcoming policy meeting, set to begin Thursday.

Elsewhere, Oil held a gain as an industry report showed shrinking US crude stockpiles and traders tracked progress toward fresh sanctions against Iran.

US PMI subindexes showed manufacturing expanded at slowest pace this year, while employment shrank forthe first time since 2020.

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Published on 24-04-2024 10:15 am

Euro and Pound Outlook

* Euro rallied by 0.44% yesterday amid weakness in dollar and rise in risk appetite in the global markets. Further, euro gained strength on improved economic data from euro zone. Composite PMI climbed more than expected to an 11-month high. For today, EURUSD is likely to hold the support near 1.0690 level (10-Day EMA) and rise towards 1.0730 levels (20-Day EMA) amid weakness in dollar, optimistic global market sentiments and expectation of improved economic data from Germany. If pair breaks above 1.0730 level then it may rally further towards 1.0780 level (50-Day EMA). EURINR April is likely to rise towards 89.50 levels (200-Day EMA) as long as it trades above 88.90 levels.

* Pound is expected to find the floor near 1.2430 level and rise towards 1.2510 level (20-Day EMA) amid weakness in dollar and as British businesses recorded their fastest growth in activity in nearly a year. GBPINR April is likely to rise further towards 104.00 level as long as it stays above 103.30 levels

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Published on 24-04-2024 10:15 am

Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

* Rupee appreciated marginally yesterday amid soft dollar and retreat in US treasury yields. Meanwhile, sharp gains were prevented due to dollar demand from importers.

* Rupee is likely to appreciate further today amid weakness in dollar, softness in US treasury yields and rise in risk appetite in the global markets. Dollar and yields moved south as US business activity cooled in April to a 4-month low due to weaker demand. Manufacturing PMI data showed activity in sector contracted in April and Services PMI signaled slowdown in sector. Additionally, pace of inflation eased from 6-month high seen in March despite of rise in input cost. Meanwhile, surge in crude oil prices may prevent sharp gains in rupee. USDINR April likely to slip towards 83.19 level (89-Day EMA) as long as it stays below 83.42 level (10-Day EMA).

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Published on 24-04-2024 09:00 am

CURRENCY LEVELS

USDINR - 83.345
Resistance: 83.41-83.46-83.52
Support: 83.3-83.24-83.19

EURINR - 88.8975
Resistance: 89.03-89.16-89.32
Support: 88.74-88.58-88.45

GBPINR - 103.1625
Resistance: 103.31-103.47-103.67
Support: 102.95-102.75-102.59

JPYINR - 53.8575
Resistance: 53.96-54.05-54.15
Support: 53.77-53.67-53.58

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Published on 24-04-2024 08:58 am

CURRENCY MARKET UPDATE - 

# Rupee ended little changed aided by likely intervention from the Indian central bank
# Euro steadied as investors digested flash PMI data for the Eurozone
# GBP gains amid solid UK PMI data and assessed the potential impact on the country's monetary policy trajectory.
# JPY remained in range as indicated that it is in no rush in terms of policy normalization

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