IGI Logo

September Series Outlook

Nifty futures has rolled around 74% vs 83% with respect to the last month, the open interest for the new contract is higher, due to higher participation in to September series. Nifty futures are positively biased till we are trading below VWAP (Volume weighted average price) of 16880 for the September series. We expect nifty to be in 17600-17000 range for the first fortnight of the September series.

FIIs have sold around Rs 2568 Cr in the cash market in August (Expiry to Expiry).

We believe the Nifty might be only positively biased here on if banking stock outperformed in this series. FIIs have trimmed the reverse arbitrage mode, i.e selling in cash market and buying stock futures to bring down the equity exposure, majorly a factor depending up on Bond market and Dollar index .

Banknifty futures rolled at around 75% vs 81% compared to the last month. The open interest of Banknifty futures in this series is much lower by around 4lkh due to some long unwinding of positions during expiry. Banknifty has to outperform the Nifty this series for the bullishness to continue.

Banknifty futures have been underperforming Nifty in the last three month, we believe this might not continue in September. For this series, ratio wise 2.31 is resistance and 2.06 the support. The ratio between Banknifty and Nifty currently at around 2.11

However the major support for Banknifty would be around 36000 levels. We expect Banknifty to be in 36000-37800 levels in the major part of September series.

Strategy

1. Buy Banknifty 30th September 38000 CE@ 250 and Sell 38500 CE@160, spread at 90, target 200.

2. Buy Nifty 30th September 17600 CE@140 and Sell 2*17900@65 spread at 10, target 80.

To Read Complete Report & Disclaimer Click Here

Please refer disclaimer http://ex.religareonline.com/disclaimer

SEBI Registration number is INZ000174330

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaime