Rupee struggles to find clear trend - HDFC Securities
* Rupee recovered from it lows against the US dollar on dollar inflows from foreign institutional investors who may have subscribed to Kotak Mahindra Bank's qualified institutional placement of share. Market is also pricing the future dollar inflows from Microsoft in Vodafone. While inherent macro data is weak, dollar inflows are supporting rupee from falling.
* Rupee expected to open with minor gains following weaker dollar index but the days trend will be decided by the movement of dollar against other Asian currencies and risk moods.
* Overnight, a late selloff erased gains of more than 1% on the S&P 500 while crude oil and gold rose to 33.5 a barrel and $1718 an ounce. However, global stocks are grinding toward a second straight month of gains on hope rebound in economic activities.
* Dollar index last quoted at 98.45 with the gains of 0.06%, hovering near two month lows. US states’ jobless rolls shrank for the first time during the coronavirus pandemic in a sign people are starting to return to work, even as millions more American filled for unemployment benefits.
* US Fed’s balance sheet rose above $7 trillion for the first time, up $138 billion. That pushes the three month annualized growth rate to 656% and 79% on a year over year basis.
USDINR June Futures :
* USDINR June futures has ben consolidating between 20 and 50 DEMA. The gap between these two averages are narrowing.
* Momentum oscillators and indicators are also flattening around breakeven line, not giving clear trend indication.
* Short term traders should wait for breakout of the range i.e. 76.50 to 75.50 .
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