Published on 13/02/2020 11:14:24 AM | Source: HDFC Securities Ltd

Rupee Falls on Weaker Economic Data - HDFC Securities

Posted in Currency Report| #HDFC Securities #Currency Tips

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Rupee Falls on Weaker Economic Data  -  HDFC Securities

Indian rupee open slightly lower on weaker than expected economic data. Double whammy impact has been seen as at one end inflation is rising while the industrial activity declining. India’s retail inflation rate in January stood at 7.59% from previous month 7.35%. That’s the highest level since May 2014 when inflation was at 8.3%. The Manufacturing activity contracted in December as factory output by 0.3% from a rise of 1.82 per cent in November and 2.5 per cent during the corresponding period of the previous year. Spot USDINR expected to trade downward and touch to ascending trend-line support around 71.15. A close below same may take it to six months low of 70.35. 10-year yields rose 1bp to 6.48% on Wednesday, taking their three-day increase to 4bps. Interest rate swap[s are pricing in the chance of a rate cut in the next 12 months. The dollar advanced along with commodity-linked currencies amid optimism that the spread of coronavirus is slowing, boosting stocks as risk appetite improved. Meanwhile, the euro fell to its weakest level since 2017 on growing concern that Germany may be heading for a recession.


USDINR February Futures :

* USDINR February futures has double bottom support around 71.

* The paise is consolidating near short term moving averages.

* Momentum oscillators are hovering near center line, indicating consolidation of momentum.

* Broadly, the pair expected to consolidate in the range of 72.50 to 71.




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