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Cotton

• The International Cotton Advisory Committee has raised its forecast for global prices in 2021-22 (Aug-Jul) as ending stocks for the ongoing season are estimated to be lower. The committee has revised upwards its price forecast for Cotlook A Index by 3 cents from the previous month, to 98 cents per pound. In 2021-22 season, the committee has estimated global ending stocks for the season are estimated at 19.7 mln tn, compared with 20.7 mln tn in the previous season. "Higher demand compared to production is expected to cause ending stocks to decline for the second year in a row. Global consumption is projected at 25.9 mln tn, compared with 25.7 mln tn last year. While global export for the season is pegged at 10.2 mln tn. The opening of economies, activities and business has revived consumer demand for textiles and clothing. Although the spread of the COVID variants and uneven access to vaccinations in the world has kept the threat of the ongoing pandemic alive, consumption shows no signs of slowing. Global production for the ongoing season is estimated at 24.9 mln tn, compared with 24.2 mln tn in the previous season. The rise has largely been attributed to higher production in the US. In the US, cotton production is estimated at 3.8 mln tn, against 3.2 mln tn a year ago. Production in India is expected to be 5.9 mln tn, compared with 6.0 mln tn in the previous year.

The UK-based Cotton Outlook has scaled down its estimate for global production in 2021-22 (Aug-Jul) by 40,000 tn to 25.8 mln tn, the agency said in its August report. The estimate has been revised downward as production in India is expected to be lower. The agency has pegged cotton production in India at 6.2 mln tn. Cotton output view in the US has been maintained at 3.9 mln tn. They scaled up its estimate for global consumption in 2021-22 by 5,000 tn to 26.0 mln tn owing to strong demand from China and Brazil. Global cotton ending stocks are estimated at 286,000 tn for the ongoing 2021-22 season.

Farmers have sown cotton across 11.7 mln ha in the 2021-22 (Jul-Jun) season, down by 8.3 % from a year ago so far, according to farm ministry. Area under the crop was slightly higher than the normal of 10.7 mln ha for the period, based on the average for the last five years.

Cotton output in Haryana is estimated to rise by 12% on year to 2.0 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg) in the 2021-22 (Jul-Jun) kharif season because of higher yield. Cotton yield is seen rising to 500 kg/ha from 419 kg/ha a year ago, according to the first advance estimate shared by the senior state farm official.

The US Department of Agriculture has scaled down its estimate for global production of cotton in 2021-22 (Aug-Jul) to 118.8 mln bales (1 US bale = 218 kg) from 119.4 mln bales projected a month ago. The down-ward revision in global production estimate is mainly due to a likely lower crop in the US, Brazil and Uzbekistan. In the US, production is seen at 17.3 mln bales in 2021-22 compared with 17.8 mln bales estimated earlier. Global cotton consumption is seen a tad higher at 123.3 mln bales in 2021-22, driven by a likely rise in demand from Bangladesh and Pakistan. Global exports are estimated at 46.3 mln bales, higher than the earlier projection of 45.9 mln. The agency has lowered its 2021-22 global ending stocks estimate to 87.2 mln bales from 87.7 mln bales. The output estimate for India, the top producer, is maintained at 29.0 mln bales for 2021-222. Consumption for the country is seen at 25.5 mln bales. The average price for US upland cotton is expected to rise by 5 cents per pound to 80 cents during the current sea-son, highest since 2011-12, the agency said.

The USDA has maintained its estimate for cotton output in India at 29.0 mln bales (1 US bale = 218 kg) in 2021-22 (Aug-Jul). The estimated production is up 2.5% on year, the agency said in a monthly report. The area under cotton is seen at 12.9 mln ha in 2021-22, compared with an estimated 13.0 mln ha the previous year. As of Aug 5, farmers in India had sown cotton across 11.6 mln ha in the 2021-22 (JulJun) season, down 6% on year. India's cotton consumption in 2021-22 is projected at 25.5 mln bales, 6% higher on year. Export estimate is seen at 6.2 mln bales, down 1.5% on year. Bangladesh, China, Vietnam and Indone-sia are top cotton export destinations. Imports for India in the 2021-22 crop year are also maintained at 1.0 mln bales. The closing stock of cotton for the country has been pegged at 14.0 mln bales, compared with 14.3 mln bales estimated in the previous month.

The Cotton Association of India has scaled up its export estimate for 2020-21 (Oct-Sep) to 7.7 mln bales (1 bale = 17 kg) from 7.2 mln bales projected earlier. In the current marketing year, India shipped around 7.0 mln bales till July. The association has also raised its domestic consumption view to 33.0 mln bales, from 32.5 mln bales estimated earlier. It has lowered its ending stock estimate to 8.3 mln bales, against 9.4 mln bales. Production and import estimates for the year are seen at 35.5 mln bales and 1.0 mln bales, respectively. Production in the northern region, which includes Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, is seen at 6.6 mln bales. In the central zone, which includes Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, the output is estimated at 19.4 mln bales. In the southern region, production is pegged at 9.1 mln bales. Of the total crop, around 34.9 mln bales had arrived in markets across India till July.

Tamil Nadu government has announced on the withdrawal of one per cent cess on purchase of cotton and cotton waste.

Technical view

If prices broke major resistance of $95 levels could see upside moves targeting $96.71 and then to $99 or even higher to $102 levels. Meanwhile, weekly (RSI) is treading higher at 64 suggesting bullish moves in the near term. However, major weakness is seen once it clears the downside support of $86 levels.

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