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Published on 6/08/2020 3:46:41 PM | Source: Choice Broking Pvt Ltd

Slump in U.S. Inventories to Further Support Crude Prices By Sumeet Bagadia, Choice Broking

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Below is the Views On Slump in U.S. Inventories to Further Support Crude Prices By Sumeet Bagadia, Choice Broking

As per EIA weekly report ending on 31st July 2020, U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged at 14.6 million barrels per day, which has been 42,000 barrels more compared to previous week's average. Currently refineries has operated at 79.6% of their operable capacity during last week, similar compared to the last week's capacity of 79.5%.

Gasoline production increased during the last week, averaging 9.3 million barrels per day. Correspondingly, the distillate fuel production has inclined during the last week, averaging at 4.9 million bpd. U.S. crude oil imports are down by 0.9 million barrels to 6.0 million barrels per day during last week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.7 million barrels per day, less by 18.1% in compared to four-week period of the last year.

Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 657,000 million barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 131,000 barrels per day. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) reported at 518.6 million barrels, lower by 7.4 million barrels compared to the previous week's inventories of 526 million barrels, At 518.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 16% above in comparison to the five year average for this time of the year.

The total motor gasoline inventories during last week observed an incline of 419,000 barrels, to a total of 247.8 million barrels and are about 8% above the five year range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components decreased during the last week. Correspondingly, distillate fuel inventories inclined by 1.6 million barrels during last week to 180.0 million barrels and are 27% above than the five year average for this time of the year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.3 million barrels last week to a total of 86.7 million barrels and are 13% above the five year average during this time of the year.

Outlook: For the week ahead, we are expecting Global and MCX crude prices to witness uptrend due to fall in the American Stock Piles and US crude inventories on a weekly basis. Falling US Dollar with positive manufacturing and non manufacturing data of the United States is expected to further improve industrial demand eventually improving crude buying. However, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) moved to increase oil production by 1.5 million barrel per day in this month and China's crude oil imports are estimated to have dropped in July by 3% from June, that can cap extreme bullishness in in Global Oil prices in the Mr. Sumeet week ahead.

 

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