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Published on 18/01/2021 9:54:08 AM | Source: Kedia Advisory

Rmseed trading range for the day is 5391-5719 - Kedia Advisory

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Commodity Tips #Kedia Advisory

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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -1.05% at 48702 as the dollar firmed up against most of its rivals after prices moved up early on in the session, riding on U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's announcement of a $1.9 trillion stimulus package proposal and the Federal Reserve's dovish outlook for the next year. Risk sentiment weakened due to worries over a rise in coronavirus infections in Europe and China, tighter lockdown restrictions in several cities across the world, and growing tensions between the U.S. and China. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari gave more downbeat assessment of the outlook than some of his colleagues, saying he believes that Americans will still need to wear masks and keep social distance through all of 2021. “It’s a long time until we can get to the other side of that,” he said in a virtual town hall held by the Minnesota Hospital Association, citing new virus variants and the slow rollout of vaccines as making him more cautious over the outlook. Physical gold in China was sold at a small premium for the first time since early 2020, as demand picked up ahead of the Chinese new year. Dealers in China offered premiums of $0.50-$4 an ounce over benchmark spot gold prices. In India, dealers charged premiums of up to $0.50 an ounce, down from last week’s premium of $1.50. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.03% to settled at 7385 while prices down -519 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 48383 and below same could see a test of 48065 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49173, a move above could see prices testing 49645.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 48065-49645.

* Gold prices drifted lower as the dollar firmed up against most of its rivals after prices moved up early on in the session.

* U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's announcement of a $1.9 trillion stimulus package proposal.

* Fed’s Neel Kashkari, said he believes that Americans will still need to wear masks and keep social distance through all of 2021.

           

Silver

           

Silver yesterday settled down by -2.88% at 64764 as the dollar continued its upturn, overshadowing bullion's appeal as an inflation hedge as the United States rolls out more stimulus. The Federal Reserve has no plans to dial back its super-easy policy even as the incoming Biden administration lobbies for a new and massive round of stimulus that sets the economy up for faster growth once vaccines are fully rolled out. Boston Fed Bank President Eric Rosengren was the latest to join the chorus at the U.S. central bank calling for continued support for the economy, saying on Friday he welcomes President-elect Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus package. “It is a big package but I think it’s appropriate,” Rosengren told. “The economy is in a lull right now,” he said, citing a decline in jobs in December and a still-high unemployment rate of 6.7%. “The mix that we have actually on fiscal and monetary policy is appropriate.” Data from the Commerce Department said retail sales fell by 0.7% in December after tumbling by a revised 1.4% in November. The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand rose by 0.3% in December after inching up by 0.1% in November. Activity in the New York manufacturing sector unexpectedly grew at a slower pace in the month of January, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York revealed in a report. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.34% to settled at 11722 while prices down -1919 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 63830 and below same could see a test of 62896 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 65982, a move above could see prices testing 67200.       

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 62896-67200.

* Silver prices slumped as the dollar continued its upturn, overshadowing bullion's appeal as an inflation hedge as the United States rolls out more stimulus.

* The Federal Reserve has no plans to dial back its super-easy policy even as the incoming Biden administration lobbies for a new and massive round of stimulus

* Powell sees no reason to alter Fed's accommodative stance

           

Crude oil   

           

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.9% at 3825 as worries about energy demand resurfaced amid rising coronavirus cases and tighter restrictions on movements in several countries, including China. The outlook for U.S. shale oil is slightly more "optimistic" due to rising prices and output will recover further in the second half of 2021, OPEC said, in a sign its policy of cutting output is helping rivals pump more. U.S. shale producers are not part of a pact between OPEC nations and others including Russia - the so-called OPEC+ - to reduce their output to support prices and reduce oversupply. China's total crude oil imports surged 7.3% in 2020 despite the coronavirus shock earlier in the year, with record arrivals in the second and third quarters as refineries expanded operations and low prices encouraged stockpiling, data showed. For 2020, the world's top oil buyer brought in a record 542.4 tonnes of crude oil, or 10.85 million barrels per day (bpd). Iraqi oil minister Ihsan Abdul Jabbar told that Saudi Arabia's voluntary output cut of 1 million bpd helps stabilize the market, and he expected steady oil prices that should reach around $57 per barrel in the first quarter. Oil minister said Iraq is in "heavy talks" with OPEC and allied oil producers to allow Iraq to postpone compensating for earlier overproduction. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.84% to settled at 1657 while prices down -74 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 3774 and below same could see a test of 3722 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3898, a move above could see prices testing 3970.      

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 3722-3970.

* Crude oil settled lower as worries about energy demand resurfaced amid rising coronavirus cases and tighter restrictions on movements in several countries

* China's 2020 crude oil imports hit record on stockpiling, new refineries

* OPEC sees U.S. shale output recovering further on oil rally

           

Nat.Gas

           

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.01% at 199.6 on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand during the last week of January and as liquefied natural gas (exports) remain near record highs after global gas prices soared. Traders noted that the U.S price increase came ahead of the long Martin Luther King Jr holiday weekend and despite forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected. U.S. natural gas production and demand will drop in 2021 as the economic fallout from coronavirus lockdowns continues, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA projected dry gas production will drop to 88.17 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021 from 90.76 bcfd in 2020 before rising to 89.66 bcfd in 2022. That compares with an all-time high of 93.06 bcfd in 2019. It also projected gas consumption would fall to 80.73 bcfd in 2021 and 79.03 bcfd in 2022 from 83.06 bcfd in 2020. That compares with a record high of 85.15 bcfd in 2019. If the outlook is correct, 2021 would be the first time output falls for two years in a row since 2005, and 2022 would be the first time consumption falls for three consecutive years since 1983. EIA's projections for 2021 in January were higher than its December forecasts of 87.91 bcfd for supply and 79.37 bcfd for demand. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.81% to settled at 5399 while prices up 2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 193.5 and below same could see a test of 187.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 205.4, a move above could see prices testing 211.1. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 187.3-211.1.

* Natural gas rose on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand during the last week of January and as LNG exports remain near record highs.

* U.S. natural gas production and demand will drop in 2021 as the economic fallout from coronavirus lockdowns continues

* EIA projected dry gas production will drop to 88.17 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021 from 90.76 bcfd in 2020 before rising to 89.66 bcfd in 2022.

           

Copper  

           

           

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.61% at 605.3 as Chinas imports of unwrought copper and copper products fell for a third consecutive month to 512,332 tonnes in December 2020, marking a 8.7% drop from 561,310.7 tonnes in November and tanking to their lowest monthly level since May. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products for the year came in at 6.68 million tonnes, customs data showed, up a third from 2019. Chinas imports of copper concentrate, or partially processed ore, were 1.89 million tonnes last month, up 3% from 1.831 million tonnes in November, but were down by 5% from 1.928 million tonnes a year earlier. Copper scrap discounts in the United States rose in response to the strong Comex copper price, along with slowing demand as some mills finished purchasing scrap metal for the month. China's major copper smelters lifted cathode production by 9.3% in December from the previous month, while full-year output held steady in a 2020. Full-year production came in at 8.54 million tonnes, up 0.02% from 2019, as smelters quickly restored normal operations after a coronavirus-dominated first quarter. While large producers like Jinchuan Group recorded strong output growth in 2020, smaller smelters saw declines amid tight mine supply and low treatment charges , which are currently at an eight-year low of $48.50 a tonne. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.14% to settled at 2979 while prices down -9.9 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 600.4 and below same could see a test of 595.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 612.7, a move above could see prices testing 620.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 595.4-620.

* Copper prices dropped as China’s copper concentrate imports slide 5% on year in December 2020

* Chinas imports of unwrought copper and copper products fell for a third consecutive month to 512,332 tonnes in December 2020

* Copper scrap discounts in the United States rose in response to the strong Comex copper price, along with slowing demand

           

Zinc    

           

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.88% at 213.45 as traders eyed the COVID-19 scenario in China and a slightly firm US dollar weighed on the prices. China's zinc smelters will raise production by almost 300,000 tonnes, or 5.7%, in 2021 after producing a record amount of metal last year despite the pandemic, while refined lead output will also grow. Production in top metals consumer China has rebounded strongly after an initial collapse in early 2020, when the coronavirus hampered logistics and hit demand. With supply constraints easing, current plans show China's refined zinc production will rise by nearly 300,000 tonnes this year. December output was 481,000 tonnes, up 1.3% year on year but down 4.9% on a daily basis from November. January output holding steady at around 480,000 tonnes before sinking below 470,000 tonnes in February as smelters plan maintenance over the Lunar New Year holiday. Zinc inventories in China fell, with stocks in Shanghai and Guangdong decreasing relatively sharply. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 4,200 mt in the week ended January 15 to 145,800 mt. Stocks in Shanghai decreased as downstream restocked more when zinc prices fell despite the inflow of imported zinc. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 15.74% to settled at 1581 while prices down -4.1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 211.5 and below same could see a test of 209.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 217.3, a move above could see prices testing 221.     

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 209.4-221.

* Zinc dropped as traders eyed the COVID-19 scenario in China and a slightly firm US dollar weighed on the prices.

* Zinc inventories in China fell, with stocks in Shanghai and Guangdong decreasing relatively sharply.

* China's zinc smelters will raise production by almost 300,000 tonnes, or 5.7%, in 2021 after producing a record amount of metal last year

           

Nickel    

           

Nickel yesterday settled down by -1.46% at 1312.8 as worries about demand resurfaced amid rising coronavirus cases and tighter restrictions on movements in several countries, including China. Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports decreased 268,000 wmt from January 8 to 8.87 million wmt as of January 15, showed data. Data also showed that nickel ore stocks across seven major Chinese ports decreased 178,000 wmt during the same period to 6.94 million wmt. China's refined nickel production in 2020 rose 1.4% to 164,600 tonnes, while output of stainless steel raw material nickel pig iron (NPI) plunged. Refined nickel output in December was up 3.1% from November at 14,090 tonnes but down 11.9% year on year as Shandong-based smelter Yantai Cash suspended a nickel production line. Top producer Jinchuan Group churned out 13,000 tonnes, up 4% from November, and met an annual target of 145,000 tonnes, adding Jinchuan is aiming 3.5% higher at 150,000 tonnes in 2021. NPI output fell 16.5% in 2020 to 504,000 tonnes on a nickel content basis as tight ore supply and slack downstream demand saw more plants opt to shut for maintenance. December NPI output was down 2.8% month on month and 18.8% year on year at 37,500 tonnes. Concerns over rising Sino-U.S. tensions also weighed on the commodity after the U.S. government blacklisted Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi Corp and ten other companies over alleged military links. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -14.91% to settled at 1615 while prices down -19.4 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1295 and below same could see a test of 1277.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1330.4, a move above could see prices testing 1348.1.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1277.3-1348.1.

* Nickel prices dropped as worries about demand resurfaced amid rising coronavirus cases and tighter restrictions in several countries

* Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports decreased 268,000 wmt from January 8 to 8.87 million wmt as of January 15

* China's refined nickel production in 2020 rose 1.4% to 164,600 tonnes, while output of stainless steel raw material NPI plunged

           

Aluminium     

           

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.86% at 162.2 after data showed said retail sales fell by 0.7% in December after tumbling by a revised 1.4% in November. President-elect Joe Biden unveiled the details of a $1.9 trillion coronavirus rescue package designed to support households and businesses through the pandemic. The proposal, called the American Rescue Plan, includes several familiar stimulus measures in the hope the additional fiscal support will sustain U.S. families and firms until the Covid-19 vaccine is widely available. The plan is the first of two major spending initiatives Biden will seek in the first few months of his presidency, according to senior Biden officials. The second bill, expected in February, will tackle the president-elect’s longer-term goals of creating jobs, reforming infrastructure, combating climate change and advancing racial equity. Germany’s economy contracted by 5% in 2020, according to full-year GDP. Coronavirus cases have prompted several lockdowns on public life and economic activity in Germany. Chancellor Angela Merkel announced last week that the latest lockdown would be extended until the end of the month. US first-time claims for unemployment insurance jumped to 965,000 last week amid signs of a slowdown in hiring due to pandemic restrictions, the Labor Department reported. The total was worse than Wall Street estimates of 800,000 and above the previous week’s total of 784,000. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.07% to settled at 863 while prices down -1.4 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 161.5 and below same could see a test of 160.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 163.4, a move above could see prices testing 164.6.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 160.8-164.6.

* Aluminium prices dropped after data showed said retail sales fell by 0.7% in December after tumbling by a revised 1.4% in November.

* Coronavirus cases have prompted several lockdowns on public life and economic activity in Germany.

* US first-time claims for unemployment insurance jumped to 965,000 last week amid signs of a slowdown in hiring due to pandemic restrictions

           

Mentha oil    

           

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.8% at 986.8 as demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector will remain weak in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1101.5 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.91% to settled at 98 while prices down -8 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 969.8 and below same could see a test of 952.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 999.3, a move above could see prices testing 1011.9. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 952.9-1011.9.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1101.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil dropped as demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector will remain weak in India

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

           

Soyabean    

           

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 1.27% at 4718 tracking rise in CBOT prices supported by signs of strong demand from both the domestic processing sector as well as the export market. Support also seen after weekly soybean export sales totaled 1.234 million tonnes, topping market forecasts that ranged from 400,000 to 1.2 million tonnes. BV Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said that poultry consumes about 5 million tonnes of soya every year and despite the bird flu, soya prices would not come down drastically. “Soya constitutes about 30 per cent of poultry feed every month. If the domestic demand dips, we are looking for additional export. We don’t want to increase export by reducing supply to the domestic market, but if local demand fails to pick up we will enhance export,” said Mehta. China's soybean imports hit a record high in 2020, customs data showed, after crushers ramped up purchases amid improved margins and healthy demand from the country's rapidly recovering pig sector. China, the world's top soybean buyer, bought 100.33 million tonnes of the oilseed in 2020, up 13% from 88.51 million tonnes in 2019, according to the General Administration of Customs, the highest annual imports on record. December's imports came in at 7.524 million tonnes, down 27% from 9.54 million tonnes a year ago. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 4690 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.7% to settled at 208300 while prices up 59 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4652 and below same could see a test of 4586 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4769, a move above could see prices testing 4820.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4586-4820.

* Soyabean prices gained tracking rise in CBOT prices supported by signs of strong demand from both the domestic processing sector as well as the export market.

* Support also seen after weekly soybean export sales totaled 1.234 million tonnes, topping market forecasts that ranged from 400,000 to 1.2 million tonnes.

* China's soybean imports hit a record high in 2020, customs data showed, after crushers ramped up purchases amid improved margins and healthy demand

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  32 Rupees to 4690 Rupees per 100 kgs.

           

Ref.Soyaoil

           

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -1.08% at 1119.3 as the sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. Pressure also seen tracking weakness in soyabean prices as the outbreak of bird flu may reduce the demand for soybean from the poultry industry. The outbreak of avian influenza in Parbhani district has been among poultry, while AI has been confirmed from crows in Mumbai, Thane, Dapoli, Maharashtra. Soybean production is estimated at 4.135 billion bushels, down 35 million led by reductions for Minnesota, Iowa, and Kansas. Largest exporter Argentina and Uruguay have also reported lower production of soybean this year, soybean production is lowered 2 million tons to 48 million for Argentina and 200,000 to 2.2 million for Uruguay, reflecting dry weather conditions in December and early January.. NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed a near-record 185.175 million bushels of soybeans last month. Soyoil supplies among NOPA members at the end of December were seen rising for a third straight month to 1.712 billion pounds, compared with 1.558 billion pounds at the end of November and 1.757 billion pounds at the end of December 2019. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1140.35 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.74% to settled at 32785 while prices down -12.2 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1104 and below same could see a test of 1087 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1139, a move above could see prices testing 1157.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1087-1157.

* Ref soyoil prices dropped as pressure seen amid the sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares.

* Pressure also seen tracking weakness in soyabean prices as the outbreak of bird flu may reduce the demand for soybean from the poultry industry

* Soybean production is estimated at 4.135 billion bushels, down 35 million led by reductions for Minnesota, Iowa, and Kansas.

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1140.35 Rupees per 10 kgs.

           

Crude palm Oil     

           

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -1.3% at 944.7 as pressure seen after exports of Malaysian palm oil products for January 1 – 15 fell 41.8 percent to 426,276 tonnes from 732,780 tonnes shipped during December 1 – 15. Malaysia kept its export duty for crude palm oil at 8% for February, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed. China would import more Indonesian products, such as palm oil, and increase investment in Southeast Asia's largest economy, a top Chinese diplomat said, as Jakarta urged Beijing to remove barriers to make trade between the two countries more balanced. Malaysia's December palm oil end-stocks slumped 19% from the month before to 1.26 million tonnes, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed. Crude palm oil production fell 10.6% from November to 1.33 million tonnes. Palm oil exports surged 24.7% to 1.62 million tonnes, MPOB said. A poll had pegged December inventories to fall 12% to 1.22 million tonnes, their lowest in more than 13 years. Production was seen down 11%, while exports were seen rising 15%. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -22.4 Rupees to end at 960.8 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.48% to settled at 3854 while prices down -12.4 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 930.2 and below same could see a test of 915.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 962.6, a move above could see prices testing 980.5.   

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 915.7-980.5.

* Crude palm oil dropped as pressure seen after exports of Malaysian palm oil products for January 1 – 15 fell 41.8 percent to 426,276 tonnes.

* Malaysia kept its export duty for crude palm oil at 8% for February

* Malaysia's December palm oil end-stocks slumped 19% from the month before to 1.26 million tonnes

* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -22.4 Rupees to end at 960.8 Rupees.

           

Mustard Seed      

           

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -1.09% at 5540 as sowing of mustard, has increased to 72.98 lakh hectare in the current Rabi whereas till last year, it was sown only in 68.15 lakh hectare. The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. At the national level, the total production area of rabi crops increased to 620.71 lakh hectare on January 1, 2021, compared to 603.15 lakh hectare to 17.56 lakh hectare or 2.91 percent and the general average area from 620.27 lakh hectare to 44 thousand hectare in the same period last year. The latest data from the Union Ministry of Agriculture shows that this time the production of oilseeds crops was 75.93 lakh hectare as compared to the last season. In oilseed crops, mustard-rapeseed production area jumped from 66.62 lakh hectare last year to 72.39 lakh hectare. The Union Agriculture Ministry has set a target of sowing mustard in 75 lakh hectare area during the current Rabi season. The process of sowing is still in progress, so it seems that the total area will reach around the target. The final acreage under the seed is expected to increase by 8-9% to around 75 lakh hectares, this season from 69 lakh hectares last year. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6161.5 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.31% to settled at 15710 while prices down -61 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5465 and below same could see a test of 5391 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5629, a move above could see prices testing 5719. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5391-5719.

* Mustard seed prices dropped as Sowing of mustard, has increased to 72.98 lakh hectare

* The total production area of rabi crops increased to 620.71 lakh hectare compared to 603.15 lakh hectare to 17.56 lakh hectare

* The latest data from the Union Ministry of Agriculture shows that this time the production of oilseeds crops was 75.93 lakh hectare

*  In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6161.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

           

Turmeric     

                      

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.33% at 6040 due to excess stocks which will be 50-60% of the excess in the current year as carry forward in the next year. However downside seen limited amid expectation of decrease in Turmeric sown area in the kharif sowing season 2020 across Nizamabad and Marathwada regions. Covid-19 raised expectations regarding the consumption of turmeric as a body immune enhancer, but it did not last long. Poor quality of arrivals is another reason for the drop in demand. Therefore, many traders in Erode started buying turmeric from the markets of Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra as the prices were low there. Despite 2% freight, they are saving 5% on costs. Apprehensions are there that water logging and higher moisture due to recent rains in October in major Turmeric growing regions of Telangana, Maharashtra, Karnataka is likely to have adverse impact on overall productivity of Turmeric. Stockiest are getting active and started purchasing actively due to factors like decreasing sowing area and increasing demand. On the export front, India exported around 0.86 lakh tonnes of Turmeric in April-August, 2020 which is 51% higher than April-August, 2019 at 0.57 lakh tonnes. 

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5725 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.81% to settled at 7960 while prices down -20 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 5992 and below same could see a test of 5946 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6092, a move above could see prices testing 6146."   

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 5946-6146.

* Turmeric dropped due to excess stocks which will be 50-60% of the excess in the current year as carry forward in the next year. 

* However downside seen limited amid expectation of decrease in Turmeric sown area across Nizamabad and Marathwada regions. 

* Covid-19 raised expectations regarding the consumption of turmeric as a body immune enhancer, but it did not last long

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5725 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.

           

Jeera     

           

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.19% at 13195 as support seen after update sowing in Gujarat fall nearly -4% with 468,948.00 hectares against sown area of 2020-21 which was 486,770.00 lakh hectares in 2019-20. Prices also gains due to constraints in supply as the end of season approaches. Support was also seen from the export side as exporters switched to Indian cumin seed this time. Demand for Indian Cumin has improved from UAE and Vietnam in recent months. Acreage under Jeera in leading producing state of Gujarat was at 4.64 lakh hectares (lh), marking a jump of around 11% compared to the same time last year which may not allow any significant price appreciation of cumin in coming weeks. Some support seen as a statement from the Spices Board said the export of spices, which had fetched ₹12,273.81 crores in the first half of the current fiscal between April and September, had grown by 19 per cent compared to the corresponding period last year. Cues coming from spot market of improved demand from domestic stockiest as a recovery of demand during the festive season on the eve of makar Sankranti and Ramjan toward January to mid-may can be seen which also supported prices. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13072.2 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.23% to settled at 1314 while prices up 25 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13145 and below same could see a test of 13095 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13240, a move above could see prices testing 13285.

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13095-13285.

* Jeera gains as support seen after update sowing in Gujarat fall nearly -4% with 468,948.00 hectares against sown area of 2020-21

* Jeera prices gained due to constraints in supply as the end of season approaches.

* Demand for Indian Cumin has improved from UAE and Vietnam in recent months.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13072.2 Rupees per 100 kg.

           

Cotton      

           

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.75% at 21100 as pressure seen after Cotton Association of India increasing India cotton stock estimates. Cotton Association of India increased Indian cotton output estimates for 2020-21 season to 358.50 lakh bales (170 kg) against 356 lakh bales pegged previously. Cotton farmers of Anantapur, who suffered due to vagaries of nature earlier, are now suffering due to lack of procurement centres in the district. The district has two cotton procurement centres in Gooty and Tadipatri, while Rythu Bharosa Kendras (RBKs) are limited to registering the names of the cotton growers. The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), which opened two procurement centres, is paying Rs 5,825 per quintal for high quality cotton and Rs 5,725 per quintal for medium quality and Rs 5,615 for the low grade cotton to the farmers. But the farmers cannot go directly to the CCI procurement centres and sell their produce. They have to get their names registered with the RBKs and only after getting an alert on their mobile phones, they can go to the procurement centres. The farmers have to wait for their serial number and the produce will be procured depending on availability of space in the warehouse of the CCI procurement centres. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -70 Rupees to end at 20940 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.7% to settled at 3451 while prices down -160 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 20990 and below same could see a test of 20870 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21240, a move above could see prices testing 21370.     

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 20870-21370.

* Cotton prices dropped as pressure seen after Cotton Association of India increasing India cotton stock estimates.

* CAI increased Indian cotton output estimates for 2020-21 season to 358.50 lakh bales.

* Cotton farmers of Anantapur, are suffering due to lack of procurement centres in the district.

* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -70 Rupees to end at 20940 Rupees.

           

Chana  

           

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.38% at 4430 as pressure seen after Pulses sowing area jumped by nearly 109% to 8.55 lh. Chana acreage has soared by 115% to 8.03 lh. Nafed’s unstable chana releasing strategy continues to affect market directly at a time when area is up by 5 % and the new crop is hardly one and a half month away. Nafed continued to fix reserve price and changed it frequently from Rs 5600 to Rs. 5100, again Rs. 5100 to Rs. 4875. Apart from it has offered 5 to 10 % discount over previous MSP on particular centers. As offtake from central pool is lower, Nafed may decrease price further to vacate storage space for new procurement. It would not allow chana cash market to go up beyond a certain level. Delhi chana is being traded at Rs4550-4650. Demand is weak. Weather condition in Jan –Feb remains crucial. The latest data shows that the total area of pulses has increased by 7% to 141 lakh hectares. More sowing is done in Maharashtra, Odisha and Jharkhand as compared to last year. Gram cultivation has increased by about 10%. NAFED to sell Gram PSS Rabi-2020 stock from all the States at or above base prices of Rs. 5100 per quintal in the month of December 2020, it offers an initial quantity of 1.5 LMT of Gram, for the month of December 2020. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4411.65 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.53% to settled at 34030 while prices down -17 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4398 and below same could see a test of 4365 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4458, a move above could see prices testing 4485.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 4365-4485.

* Chana prices dropped as pressure seen after Pulses sowing area jumped by nearly 109% to 8.55 lh.

* Chana acreage has soared by 115% to 8.03 lh.

*  Nafed’s unstable chana releasing strategy continues to affect market directly at a time when area is up by 5 %

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4411.65 Rupees per 100 kgs.