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Gold yesterday settled down by -1.32% at 44948 as Treasury yields resume advance amid prospects of a swift economic recovery. Expectations for a robust economic recovery fueled by the vaccines’ rollout and more government spending spooked investors away from the non-yielding metal. In the absence of significant fundamental drivers, the risk-positive market environment seems to be making it difficult for the precious metal to attract investors. Still, signals that the Fed will be keeping monetary policy extremely easy for the foreseeable future have lent some optimism to the gold bulls. U.S. Federal Reserve officials, facing a potential bout of inflation this spring in an economy turbocharged by vaccines and government spending, said they will keep their easy money plans in place nevertheless in hopes of speeding displaced Americans back to work. A recent rise in U.S. Treasury bond yields seemed to show investors betting the Fed will move sooner than expected to tighten monetary policy as the recovery gains steam and life returns to normal. But “we are far from reaching our objectives,” Fed Governor Lael Brainard said, ticking off the litany of ways, from 10 million missing jobs to the pandemic-related drop in women’s labor force participation, in which the U.S. job market is still falling short. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.5% to settled at 13442 while prices down -600 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 44492 and below same could see a test of 44035 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 45475, a move above could see prices testing 46001.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 44035-46001.

* Gold fell as Treasury yields resume advance amid prospects of a swift economic recovery.

* Fed officials emphasize policy 'patience' as outlook improves

* U.S. Federal Reserve officials, facing a potential bout of inflation this spring in an economy turbocharged by vaccines and government spending

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.76% at 68000 as the dollar index edged higher as Treasury yields increased amid prospects of a strong economic rebound supported by fiscal stimulus and a faster coronavirus vaccine rollout. President Biden recently said the US will have enough vaccines for every American by the end of May, earlier than July. U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said she was closely watching bond markets and would be concerned if a recent rise in yields continued and began to constrain economic activity. "I am paying close attention to market developments. Some of those moves last week and the speed of the moves caught my eye," Brainard said. "I would be concerned if I saw disorderly conditions or persistent tightening in financial conditions that could slow progress towards our goals." San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly pushed back against the fear that easy Fed policy could bring on unwanted inflation, arguing that with inflation too low and millions of Americans still out of work, monetary policy must remain accommodative “for some time.” “Our most important virtue will be patience,” Daly said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Economic Club of New York. “We will need to continually reassess what the labor market is capable of and avoid preemptively tightening monetary policy before millions of Americans have an opportunity to benefit.” Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.37% to settled at 12194 while prices down -1215 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66790 and below same could see a test of 65579 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69272, a move above could see prices testing 70543.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 65579-70543.

* Silver prices dropped as the dollar index edged higher as Treasury yields increased amid prospects of a strong economic rebound supported by fiscal stimulus and a faster coronavirus vaccine rollout.

* Fed's Brainard: Closely watching bond market, would be concerned if financial conditions tighten

* Fed's Daly calls for 'patience,' says too-low inflation costly

Crude oil 

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.28% at 4525 amid raising expectations that OPEC+ will be rolling over oil production cuts from March into April instead of raising output. U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose sharply in the most recent week, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed. Crude inventories rose by 7.4 million barrels in the week to Feb. 26, compared with expectations in a poll for a draw of 928,000 barrels. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 732,000 barrels, API said. OPEC sees a generally positive oil market outlook with last year's uncertainty easing, but downside risks caused by the pandemic persist, the group's secretary general said. "We have come a long way from a year ago," OPEC chief Mohammad Barkindo said. "The days of GDP and oil demand figures being in the red because of the pandemic-induced shock appear to be behind us." Russia failed to raise oil output in February despite being granted permission by OPEC+ as industry sources said challenges in resuming output from mature fields were exacerbated by harsh winter weather. Until 2017, Russia had never before cut production in tandem with OPEC producers. Last year it was forced to slash output by almost a fifth or 2 million barrels per day (bpd) amid a global demand collapse caused by the pandemic. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.5% to settled at 3845 while prices up 57 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4417 and below same could see a test of 4309 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4584, a move above could see prices testing 4643.

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4309-4643.

* Crude oil gained amid raising expectations that OPEC+ will be rolling over oil production cuts from March into April instead of raising output. 

* U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose sharply in the most recent week, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed.

* OPEC sees positive oil market outlook, continued downside risks

Nat.Gas      

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.91% at 207 on rising output despite forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand than earlier expected. Traders noted gas flows to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports plants was also on track to rise back to near record highs next week. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 90.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March. That compares with a 28-month low of 86.5 bcfd in February when extreme weather froze gas wells and pipes in Texas and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would drop from 112.2 bcfd this week to 105.0 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally milder. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv projected. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, averaged 10.1 bcfd so far in March. That compares with a four-month low of 8.5 bcfd in February as extreme cold cut power and gas supplies and a monthly record high of 10.7 bcfd in December. Buyers around the world continue to purchase near record amounts of U.S. gas because prices in Europe and Asia remain high enough to cover the cost of shipping the U.S. fuel across the oceans. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.72% to settled at 9188 while prices down -1.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 205.4 and below same could see a test of 203.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 209.8, a move above could see prices testing 212.5.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 203.7-212.5.

* Natural gas eased on rising output despite forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand than earlier expected.

* Traders noted gas flows to U.S. LNG exports plants was also on track to rise back to near record highs next week.

* Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states dropped to an average of 86.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in February

Copper​​​​​​​      

Copper yesterday settled down by -2.02% at 702.3 as China’s services sector had its worst month on record in February as new orders plummeted to their lowest level since the global financial crisis. The official NBS Manufacturing PMI and the Caixin survey showed that China’s manufacturing recovery weakened for a third month in February. China's services sector activity grew at its slowest pace in 10 months in February as firms struggled with sluggish demand and high costs, a private sector survey showed, prompting them to cut jobs. The Caixin/Markit services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 51.5, the lowest since April, from 52.0 in January but remained above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. February also saw the Lunar New Year holidays, when many workers return to their hometowns, although this year saw far fewer trips amid coronavirus fears. US Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that the Senate started to protest the relief proposal as early as Wednesday, and the market was full of optimism. Yangshan copper premiums with a quotation period in March stood at $68-84/mt under warrants during February 22-26, and between $65-80/mt under bill of lading. The SHFE/LME copper price ratio stood at 7.35 as of February 26. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.91% to settled at 3787 while prices down -14.45 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 695.4 and below same could see a test of 688.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 711.2, a move above could see prices testing 720.1. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 688.5-720.1.

* Copper prices dropped as China's services sector grows at slowest rate in 10 months in Feb

* Manufacturing PMI and the Caixin survey showed that China’s manufacturing recovery weakened for a third month in February.

* Market participants also eyed a key meeting in China that will unveil the country's growth drivers

Zinc    

Zinc yesterday settled down by -2.86% at 217.3 as elevated U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar hammered the metals prices. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields crept back towards a one-year peak reached last week. Fed officials have reiterated that U.S. interest rates will remain low but cited a recent rise in real rates as a sign of growing optimism about an economic recovery. Racial and gender disparities lead to trillions of dollars in lost economic activity and a full recovery from the crisis caused by the pandemic will require structural changes that make it easier for women and minorities to find better paying jobs, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker. Harker cited research from the San Francisco Fed estimating that gender and racial disparities in the labor market amount to about $2.6 trillion in economic losses. He said some workers will need help finding jobs, nodding to a tool recently launched by the Philadelphia Fed that helps workers identify similar, but better paying jobs that typically do not require a college degree. The processing fee is expected to trend lower on the week in Yunnan and Sichuan and be flat in other regions on the back of season suspension at some zinc ore plants. Besides, some smelters planned to resume production after the CNY holiday and demand for zinc ore increased. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.62% to settled at 2064 while prices down -6.4 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 215 and below same could see a test of 212.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 221.6, a move above could see prices testing 225.9.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 212.7-225.9.

* Zinc prices dropped as elevated U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar hammered the metals prices.

* Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields crept back towards a one-year peak reached last week.

* The domestic downstream still mainly digested inventories, and received less goods at high prices, thus putting pressure on prices

Nickel      

Nickel yesterday settled down by -7.65% at 1259.8 as one of the major nickel producing mine’s production at Russia which was on a halt due to water shortage can restart production. According to the preliminary data released by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), global mine nickel production was 2,500 ktonnes in 2020, a 4% decline compared to 2019 (2,610 ktonnes). With 760 ktonnes of mined metal, Indonesia was once again an undisputed leader in nickel production, followed by the Philippines (320 ktonnes) and Russia (280 ktonnes). New Caledonia sits fourth with 200 ktonnes of nickel mined in 2020. Manufacturing activities across nickel downstream sectors in China retreated to the contractionary territory in February. Data showed that the purchasing manager's index (PMI) for downstream nickel industries, including stainless steel, electroplating, alloy and battery, stood at 46.93 in February, down 3.68 points from January. The global nickel market surplus rose to 14,600 tonnes in December from an upwardly revised surplus of 7,400 tonnes in the previous month, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. Last year, the global market saw a surplus of 122,900 tonnes compared with a deficit of 32,200 tonnes in 2019, Lisbon-based INSG added. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 20.72% to settled at 2202 while prices down -104.3 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1220.9 and below same could see a test of 1182.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1330.7, a move above could see prices testing 1401.7.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1182.1-1401.7.

* Nickel prices dropped as one of the major nickel producing mine’s production at Russia which was on a halt due to water shortage can restart production.

* World’s nickel production dropped 4% in 2020

*  Manufacturing activities across nickel downstream sectors in China retreated to the contractionary territory in February.

Aluminium     

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.31% at 176.3 as concerns of supply cuts in top consumer China pushed prices higher. China's Inner Mongolia, a major aluminium producing region, will stop reviewing new projects in industries which consume large amounts of energy including aluminium, as it attempts to meet energy efficiency targets. The LME cash aluminium was last at a discount of $3 per tonne over the three-month contract, shrinking from a $14.50 discount in the previous session, indicating tightening in nearby supplies. The US House of Representatives passed earlier this week President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan, but the Senate has to vote on the bill in order to implement it. The US dollar was lifted recently by the US 10-year Treasury bonds yield's jump above 1.6% for the first time in more than a year, and after the US health authorities (FDA) approved the emergency use of the Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 vaccine, which is taken in only a single dose. China's services sector activity grew at its slowest pace in 10 months in February as firms struggled with sluggish demand and high costs, a private sector survey showed, prompting them to cut jobs. The Caixin/Markit services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 51.5, the lowest since April, from 52.0 in January but remained above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.42% to settled at 999 while prices down -0.55 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 174.5 and below same could see a test of 172.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 178.5, a move above could see prices testing 180.6.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 172.6-180.6.

* Aluminium prices rose as concerns of supply cuts in top consumer China pushed prices higher.

* The LME cash aluminium was last at a discount of $3 per tonne over the three-month contract, shrinking from a $14.50 discount.

* The US House of Representatives passed earlier this week President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan

Mentha oil​​​​​​​      

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.34% at 953.9 amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1093.1 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.89% to settled at 54 while prices down -3.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 952.6 and below same could see a test of 951.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 955.3, a move above could see prices testing 956.6. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 951.2-956.6.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1093.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil dropped amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. 

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean      

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.27% at 5150 as worries about adverse weather in Brazil stoked concerns about global supplies. In Brazil, the world's biggest soy exporter, soybean harvesting are furthest behind schedule in south-central Mato Grosso, according to weather firm Maxar. Widespread rains in Mato Grosso over the next week should keep fieldwork behind the normal pace. European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 9.58 million tonnes by Feb. 28, data published by the European Commission showed. Prices gained supported by strong Chinese demand and falling U.S. inventories — led to extra attention on the USDA's expectations for this year's planting. Soyabean prices surged due to delays in exports from Brazil boosted expectations of higher demand for U.S. supplies. Chinese soybean crushers are expected to curtail operations sharply in the coming months due to harvest delays in top exporter Brazil, pushing up prices and likely leading to a rundown in inventories. Soyabean gains were partly offset by slowing U.S. export demand as the South American harvest continues to ramp up. U.S. soybean processors likely crushed 5.867 million short tons of the oilseed in January, or 195.6 million bushels. Large speculators raised their net long position in soybeans futures in the week to Feb. 23, regulatory data showed. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5293 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.22% to settled at 80395 while prices up 14 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5128 and below same could see a test of 5106 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5173, a move above could see prices testing 5196.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5106-5196.

* Soyabean prices gained as worries about adverse weather in Brazil stoked concerns about global supplies.

* European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 9.58 million tonnes by Feb. 28,

* USDA attache sees Argentina 2020/21 soybean crop at 47.5 million T

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  32 Rupees to 5293 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil​​​​​​​      

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -1.4% at 1164.3 on profit booking after prices gained amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months. A strong export pace of soybeans could limit the amount of supplies available to crush into soymeal and soyoil. Government of India, lowered basic import duty on edible oils. The basic custom duty on CPO slashed from 27.5 percent to 15 percent whereas, soybean oil and sunflower oil duty is cut to 15% from 35%. The government has proposed 17.5% cess on CPO and 20% cess on crude soybean and sunflower oil, further added. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India has compiled the export data for export of oilmeals for the month of December 2020 and provisionally reported at 512,997 tons compared to 220,404 tons in December, 2019 i.e. more than doubled (133%). The overall export of oilmeals during April to December 2020 recovered and provisionally reported at 2,461,696 tons compared to 1,955,276 tons during the same period of previous year i.e. up by 26%. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1193.95 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -20.79% to settled at 29505 while prices down -16.5 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1156 and below same could see a test of 1148 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1178, a move above could see prices testing 1192.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1148-1192.

* Ref soyoil dropped  on profit booking after prices gained amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil

* Very heavy rains remain in the forecast for Brazil's northern soybean belt, where farmers are trying to harvest the soybean crop.

*  A strong export pace of soybeans could limit the amount of supplies available to crush into soymeal and soyoil. 

*  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1193.95 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil​​​​​​​      

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -1.1% at 1033.5 pressured by expectations of higher stockpile for end-February as exports dropped over the month. Malaysia's palm oil stocks likely grew 7.6% month-on-month to 1.43 million tonnes at end-February due to a slower decline in production compared to exports. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for February fell 4.6% to 1,052,779 tonnes from January as China and the United States cut down purchases, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said. European Union palm oil imports in the 2020/21 season stood at 3.69 million tonnes, compared with 3.78 million a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products in February fell 4.6% from January to 1,052,779 tonnes, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said. Output in Malaysia – the world's second-largest producer of palm oil – is seen increasing as Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) estimated Feb. 1-25 production to rise by 19.78%. Indonesia has set the crude palm oil reference price for March at $1,036.22 per tonne. Indonesian crude palm oil export levies in March will remain at $255 per tonne. Export taxes will remain at $93 per tonne. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -0.5 Rupees to end at 1063.8 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.01% to settled at 7975 while prices down -11.5 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1026.6 and below same could see a test of 1019.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1044.6, a move above could see prices testing 1055.8.   

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1019.8-1055.8.

* Crude palm oil dropped pressured by expectations of higher stockpile for end-February as exports dropped over the month.

* Malaysia's palm oil stocks likely grew 7.6% month-on-month to 1.43 million tonnes at end-February

* European Union palm oil imports in the 2020/21 season stood at 3.69 million tonnes, compared with 3.78 million a year earlier

* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -0.5 Rupees to end at 1063.8 Rupees.

Mustard Seed​​​​​​​      

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.42% at 5450 as the mustard sowing was excellent this year and production is expected to be better with favorable weather. However downside seen limited due to better demand as millers remain in the procurement due to the pipeline being empty. The arrival of new crops has started increasing in the mandis. The daily arrival of mustard in the current weekend was 1.85 lakh kattas. The daily arrival of new mustard in the mandis of Rajasthan has reached 70 thousand kattas. Mustard is getting up to 7/15 percent moisture. The weather is changing, so the moisture content is expected to decrease soon. The daily arrival of new mustard in the mandis of Uttar Pradesh is increasing day by day. The latest Government data shows that the planted area in Mustard or RM seed has so far reached 73.25 Lakh hectares as against 68.64 Lakh hectares during last year’s corresponding period. The government aims to take the area under mustard to around 80 lakh hectares this year, under the Oilseeds Mission program. The mustard crop continues providing better prices to farmers than the MSP till now. India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level due to higher sowing and conducive weather. The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5500 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.18% to settled at 42020 while prices down -23 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5403 and below same could see a test of 5357 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5504, a move above could see prices testing 5559.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5357-5559.

* Mustard seed dropped as the mustard sowing was excellent this year and production is expected to be better with favorable weather.

* However downside seen limited due to better demand as millers remain in the procurement due to the pipeline being empty.

* The arrival of new crops has started increasing in the mandis. The daily arrival of mustard in the current weekend was 1.85 lakh kattas.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5500 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric​​​​​​​      

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 3.99% at 9336 as high domestic and export demand, coupled with fears of lower output, have fuelled prices. Apart from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher. The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve. The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra. The arrival of new crop on the Erode line will start in the month of March. But due to less sowing this year, the production is also less likely than last year. During the current week Erode single polished bundle in Erode Mandi was quoted at Rs 6100/6300 with a rise from Rs 5800/6000. In recent sessions, prices were up in the spot due to lack of stock and inward arrivals of new goods in the month of February-March. During the current week, the price of Gatta without polish in Warangal rose by Rs 200 to Rs 5600. While the double polished bundle was strengthened from Rs 6200 to Rs 6400. Further new goods arrived in the turmeric auction held in Sangli Mandi, Maharashtra in the beginning of the week but due to moisture and quality turmeric trade was low. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8140 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.43% to settled at 9215 while prices up 358 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 9152 and below same could see a test of 8968 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9428, a move above could see prices testing 9520.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8968-9520.

* Turmeric prices rallied amid high domestic and export demand, coupled with fears of lower output

*  Apart from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher.

* The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8140 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.

Jeera      

Jeera yesterday settled up by 2.66% at 14110 due to high export demand and Cumin sowing in Gujarat has gone down to 4.69 lakh hectares from last season’s 4.88 lakh hectares. Some support seen as a statement from the Spices Board said the export of spices, which had fetched ₹12,273.81 crores in the first half of the current fiscal between April and September, had grown by 19 percent compared to the corresponding period last year. The Unjha market is receiving nearly 1,000 bags per day from north Gujarat, Saurashtra, and parts of Rajasthan. Jeera production for 2021-22 (marketing period) is estimated at 391,291 MT (around 71 lakh bags each of 55 kg) compared to last year’s 451,451 MT (82 lakh bags). Major export demand coming from UAE and other gulf countries ahead of Ramzan. Domestic demand is also boosted by Ramzan and marriage season. Weather conditions in major producing states have hampered the quality and supply of jeera. On the international front support is also seen as turkey and Syria have reported less production of cumin this season. Production in Syria had dropped around 25-30 percent in 2020 versus the previous year due to political instability that has hampered the farming sector. Cumin production in Turkey was around 15,000 tonne, this year it is estimated to be lower. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13408.8 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.28% to settled at 1320 while prices up 365 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13815 and below same could see a test of 13525 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14270, a move above could see prices testing 14435.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13525-14435.

* Jeera prices gained due to high export demand and sowing in Gujarat has gone down to 4.69 lakh hectares

* Jeera production for 2021-22 is estimated at 391,291 MT compared to last year’s 451,451 MT

* The Unjha market is receiving nearly 1,000 bags per day from north Gujarat, Saurashtra, and parts of Rajasthan.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13408.8 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.54% at 22190 on profit booking after prices gained bolstered by hopes for stronger demand as the global economy recovers. International Cotton Advisory Committee, has stated that the global production of cotton is expected to decrease to 251 lakh tonnes in the year 2020-21. Despite increasing stock of cotton and reduced production, recovery due to corona pandemic is expected to be limited. However, the ICAC has estimated that the consumption of cotton will increase by 7 per cent to 243 lakh tonnes in the year 2020-21. Meanwhile, there have also been some positive signs that capering mills in Vietnam, Bangladesh and India were operating at 75 per cent of their capacity in July, while the current stock-to-use ratio is 97, which the current availability of cotton is capable of meeting. According to the International Cotton Advisory Committee, the consumption of cotton is expected to be 243 lakh tonnes in the year 2020-21, while the production is expected to be 251 lakh tonnes. In the year 2019-20, consumption of cotton was 227 lakh tonnes and production was 262 lakh tonnes. Speculators boosted their already large position in cotton by adding 4,546 contracts in the week to Feb. 23 bringing the total net long contracts to 74,226, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed. In spot market, Cotton gained by 30 Rupees to end at 22160 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.56% to settled at 8750 while prices down -120 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 22100 and below same could see a test of 22010 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22340, a move above could see prices testing 22490.        

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 22010-22490.

* Cotton dropped on profit booking after prices gained bolstered by hopes for stronger demand as the global economy recovers.

* International Cotton Advisory Committee, has stated that the global production of cotton is expected to decrease to 251 lakh tonnes in the year 2020-21.

* Despite increasing stock of cotton and reduced production, recovery due to corona pandemic is expected to be limited.

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 30 Rupees to end at 22160 Rupees.

Chana​​​​​​​      

Chana yesterday settled up by 0.61% at 4987 as the Centre is expected to purchase around 600,000 tn chana harvested in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) under the price support scheme from farmers in Madhya Pradesh. "Initially, the government approved purchase of 600,000 tn chana from farmers in Madhya Pradesh. It may ask to buy more chana on the state government's request". If the government allows higher purchases, overall procurement this season is likely to surpass last year's level of over 700,000 tn. The Ministry of Agriculture approved the purchase of 1,67,000 tonnes of chana under the price support scheme in Karnataka for the Rabi season 2020-21. During the current financial year, there are signs of a decline in the import of gram from abroad and some increase in the import of country gram. According to the available data, 60 thousand tonnes of chana were imported in the eight months of April-November 2020, while 55 thousand tonnes are estimated in December 2020 and 21,000 tonnes in January 2021. Thus, in the ten months of April 2020 to January 2021, a total of 1.36 lakh tonnes of gram were imported. In comparison, in the 12 months of April 2019 to March 2020, more than 2.51 lakh tonnes of chana were sourced from abroad. The arrival of new goods of gram in India has started in some areas. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4900 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.02% to settled at 21960 while prices up 30 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4949 and below same could see a test of 4912 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5014, a move above could see prices testing 5042.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 4912-5042.

* Chana gained as the Centre is expected to purchase around 600,000 tn chana harvested in 2020-21 

* The Ministry of Agriculture approved the purchase of 1,67,000 tonnes of chana in Karnataka

* During the current financial year, there are signs of a decline in the import of gram from abroad and some increase in the import of country gram.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4900 Rupees per 100 kgs

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