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Published on 3/03/2021 10:23:23 AM | Source: Kedia Advisory

Gold trading range for the day is 44716-46066 - Kedia Advisory

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Commodity Tips #Kedia Advisory

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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.53% at 45548 as the dollar lost ground after an initial uptick and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury Note stayed below 1.5% for a second straight day. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields have eased off a one-year high hit last week, while the dollar index held near a four-week peak. Focus also remains on the developments of the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill that will be debated in the U.S. Senate this week. Citi Gold demand worldwide in the fourth quarter of 2020 was the lowest in 11 years — since the financial crisis of 2008 — due to the impacts of COVID-19, according to the report released by the World Gold Council. Gold demand fell 28% in the fourth quarter to 783.4 metric tons, and for all of 2020, demand dropped 14% to 3,759.5 metric tons. Gold jewelry demand in the fourth quarter was down 13% to 515.9 metric tons, and jewelry demand for all of 2020 dropped 34% to 1,411.6 metric tons, a record low. The bright spot was an increase in gold as an investment in 2020, with annual investment demand up 40% to 1,773 metric tons, mainly from gold-backed exchange traded funds but also from gold bar and gold coin demand, according to the Gold Demands report. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.57% to settled at 12988 while prices up 240 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 45132 and below same could see a test of 44716 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 45807, a move above could see prices testing 46066.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 44716-46066.

* Gold settled higher as the dollar lost ground after an initial uptick and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury Note stayed below 1.5% 

* Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields have eased off a one-year high hit last week, while the dollar index held near a four-week peak.

* Focus also remains on the developments of the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill that will be debated in the U.S. Senate this week.

 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.6% at 69215 as U.S. dollar remained broadly weaker as Treasury yields continued to retreat, restoring some calm to global markets and reigniting demand for riskier assets. The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the US rose 3.5 points to 55.4 in March of 2021, the highest since February 2020 before the Covid-19 shutdown. The six-month outlook for the US economy picked up to 53.2 from 49.5, returning to positive territory for the first time since October 2020. Also, the personal finances subindex, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, climbed to 58 from 56.5 and the federal policies subindex jumped 10.5 percent from 49.7 to 54.9. Still, signals that the Fed will be keeping monetary policy extremely easy for the foreseeable future lent some optimism to the bulls. Traders await a series of Fed speeches this week, culminating with Powell on Thursday and the February U.S. employment report due on Friday, which will provide an update on the speed and direction of the nation's labor market recovery. On the virus front, the number of new coronavirus infections globally rose for the first time in almost two months in the past week due to relaxing of public health measures, circulation of variants and people letting down their guard, the World Health Organization said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.78% to settled at 12363 while prices up 415 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67557 and below same could see a test of 65898 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 70121, a move above could see prices testing 71026.      

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 65898-71026.

* Silver gained as U.S. dollar dropped as Treasury yields continued to retreat, restoring some calm to global markets and reigniting demand for riskier assets. 

* US economic optimism returns to pre-pandemic levels

* Still, signals that the Fed will be keeping monetary policy extremely easy for the foreseeable future lent some optimism to the bulls.

 

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.38% at 4468 as OPEC sees the oil market’s outlook as positive in general and the uncertainty that dominated last year is easing. China's factory activity growth slipped to a nine-month low in February, which may curtail Chinese crude demand and pressure oil prices. OPEC oil output fell in February as a voluntary cut by Saudi Arabia added to reductions agreed to under the previous OPEC+ pact, ending a run of seven consecutive monthly increases. U.S. crude oil output dropped 58,000 barrels per day to 11.063 million bpd in December, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a monthly report. The move came as onshore oil production fell in Texas and North Dakota, the top oil-producing states, outpacing a slight rise in offshore output in the Gulf of Mexico. The agency also revised down crude production in November to 11.121 million bpd, 3,000 bpd less than previously reported. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to February 23, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group raise its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 2,607 contracts to 402,543 during the period. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.52% to settled at 3788 while prices up 17 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4405 and below same could see a test of 4342 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4519, a move above could see prices testing 4570.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4342-4570.

* Crude oil gained as OPEC sees the oil market’s outlook as positive in general and the uncertainty that dominated last year is easing

* China's factory activity growth slipped to a nine-month low in February, which may curtail Chinese crude demand and pressure oil prices

* U.S. crude output drops to 11.06 mln bpd in December - EIA

 

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 2.75% at 208.9 amid few changes in the forecasts for weather or demand from earlier in the week. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 90.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March. That compares with a 28-month low of 86.5 bcfd in February when extreme weather froze gas wells and pipes in Texas and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would drop from 111.0 bcfd this week to 102.2 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally milder. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, averaged 9.7 bcfd so far in March. Buyers around the world continue to purchase near record amounts of U.S. gas because prices in Europe and Asia remain high enough to cover the cost of shipping the U.S. fuel across the oceans. U.S. natural gas prices in 2021 at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana will likely rise to their highest since 2018 as governments ease lockdowns and demand rises faster than producers can restore output shut during the 2020 coronavirus-linked price drop. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 17.87% to settled at 9543 while prices up 5.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 204.6 and below same could see a test of 200.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 211.6, a move above could see prices testing 214.4. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 200.4-214.4.

* Natural gas edged up amid few changes in the forecasts for weather or demand from earlier in the week.

* Forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand in March prompted speculators last week to cut their net long positions – CFTC

* Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states dropped to an average of 86.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in February

 

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 2.68% at 716.75 powered by expectations of tight supply and expanding demand, while investors were cautious as they awaited a series of policy announcements later this week. China announced weaker-than-expected February activity growth in the manufacturing sector, one of the biggest consumers of industrial metals. Market participants also eyed a key meeting in China later this week that will unveil the country's growth drivers and potentially paint a clearer picture on the outlook for metals demand in their biggest consuming market. Growth in new home prices in China eased slightly in February as demand slowed over the Lunar New Year and some major cities clamped down further on speculative buying, a private survey showed. The global refined copper market showed a 77,000 tonne deficit in November compared with a deficit of 145,000 tonnes deficit in October, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. Between January and November last year, the copper market saw a shortage of 589,000 tonnes compared with a 427,000 shortfall in the same period the previous year. World refined copper output in November was 2.12 million tonnes while consumption was 2.20 million tonnes. Global stocks of refined copper stood at 1.265 million tonnes at the end of November compared with 1.329 million tonnes at the end of October, according to the ICSG. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.62% to settled at 4068 while prices up 18.7 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 697.8 and below same could see a test of 678.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 727.3, a move above could see prices testing 737.8.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 678.8-737.8.

* Copper prices regained powered by expectations of tight supply and expanding demand

* PBOC reverse repo operations to inject 10B Yuan in 7-day maturities

* Market participants also eyed a key meeting in China that will unveil the country's growth drivers

 

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 2.24% at 223.7 driven by low inventories and expectations of higher industrial demand on the back of stimulus and vaccine-fueled economic recovery. The US 1.9 trillion stimulus bill passed the House of Representatives overnight, which will be reviewed by the Senate this week. The implementation of the US economic stimulus plan will be monitored in the near term. At present, the spot market transactions are still relatively tepid, and the rising stocks restrained the price increase of zinc. The "two sessions" in China are just around the corner, and the Politburo meeting once again set a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, focusing on maintaining stable economic operation. The setting of major economic goals of the two sessions this year and the 14th Five-Year Plan will be monitored. The processing fee is expected to trend lower on the week in Yunnan and Sichuan and be flat in other regions on the back of season suspension at some zinc ore plants. Besides, some smelters planned to resume production after the CNY holiday and demand for zinc ore increased. Transactions on imported low-priced zinc ore processing fee remained sluggish and smelters were reluctant to accept such price. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.22% to settled at 2164 while prices up 4.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 219.9 and below same could see a test of 216.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 226.1, a move above could see prices testing 228.5.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 216.1-228.5.

* Zinc gains driven by low inventories and expectations of higher industrial demand on the back of stimulus and vaccine-fueled economic recovery.

* Some smelters planned to resume production after the CNY holiday and demand for zinc ore increased.

* The US 1.9 trillion stimulus bill passed the House of Representatives overnight, which will be reviewed by the Senate this week.

 

Nickel 

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.49% at 1364.1 as global manufacturing activity is surging as government support programmes and low interest rates protect consumers’ incomes while restrictions on leisure travel and other services divert spending into merchandise. The IHS Markit's Manufacturing PMI for the US declined to 58.6 (final) in February from 59.2 in January to show an ongoing expansion in the manufacturing sector's economic activity at a slightly softer pace, and the ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 60.8. The market expects that as the US government prepares to offer new fiscal stimulus measures and vaccination becomes more common, economic growth and inflation will accelerate. The global nickel market surplus rose to 14,600 tonnes in December from an upwardly revised surplus of 7,400 tonnes in the previous month, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. Last year, the global market saw a surplus of 122,900 tonnes compared with a deficit of 32,200 tonnes in 2019, Lisbon-based INSG added. Nickel output in the Philippines, the world's biggest exporter of the material to top metal consumer China, rose 3% last year to 333,962 tonnes, government data showed. Only 18 of the 30 nickel mines in the Southeast Asian country reported output last year as some projects had been hampered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.01% to settled at 1824 while prices up 6.7 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1343.4 and below same could see a test of 1322.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1376.4, a move above could see prices testing 1388.7.

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1322.7-1388.7.

* Nickel prices gained as global manufacturing activity is surging as government support programmes

* The IHS Markit's Manufacturing PMI for the US declined to 58.6 in February from 59.2 in January

* The global nickel market surplus rose to 14,600 tonnes in December from an upwardly revised surplus of 7,400 tonnes in the previous month

 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 4.03% at 176.85 driven by a recovery in demand particularly in the automotive, packaging and construction sectors from the Covid-19 hit. Recent data from the International Aluminum Institute showed aluminum production in January grew 4.3% from a year earlier, with Chinese output accounting for almost 60% of the total production. China posted weaker-than-expected factory growth in February after brief COVID-19-related disruptions earlier in the year. Recent data from the International Aluminum Institute showed aluminum production in January grew 4.3% from a year earlier, with Chinese output accounting for almost 60% of the total production. China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for February came in at 50.6 over the weekend, according to data released by the country’s National Bureau of Statistics. That was lower than January’s reading of 51.3 but still above the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction. A private survey also showed China’s manufacturing activity in February growing at a slower pace. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 50.9, a decline from January’s reading of 51.5. Levels above 50 in PMI readings represent expansion while those below that signify contraction. PMI readings are sequential and show on-month expansion or contraction. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 12.83% to settled at 985 while prices up 6.85 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 171.8 and below same could see a test of 166.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 179.7, a move above could see prices testing 182.4. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 166.6-182.4.

* Aluminum prices rose driven by a recovery in demand particularly in the automotive, packaging and construction sectors from the Covid-19 hit.

*  The biggest metals consuming nation will begin its annual session of parliament on Friday, unveiling a five-year plan to fend off stagnation.

* Data from the International Aluminum Institute showed aluminum production in January grew 4.3% from a year earlier

 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.92% at 957.2 on short covering amid demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1091.8 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.92% to settled at 53 while prices up 8.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 951.5 and below same could see a test of 945.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 962.1, a move above could see prices testing 966.9. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 945.7-966.9.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1091.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil gained on short covering amid demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. 

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

 

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -0.83% at 5136 on profit booking pressured by expectations for a large crop in top-exporter Brazil. U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast domestic supplies of soybeans would remain historically tight into 2022 despite its projection for a record-large harvest this autumn. Prices gained supported by strong Chinese demand and falling U.S. inventories — led to extra attention on the USDA's expectations for this year's planting. Soyabean prices surged due to delays in exports from Brazil boosted expectations of higher demand for U.S. supplies. Chinese soybean crushers are expected to curtail operations sharply in the coming months due to harvest delays in top exporter Brazil, pushing up prices and likely leading to a rundown in inventories. Soyabean gains were partly offset by slowing U.S. export demand as the South American harvest continues to ramp up. U.S. soybean processors likely crushed 5.867 million short tons of the oilseed in January, or 195.6 million bushels. Estimates ranged from 195.0 million bushels to 196.1 million bushels, with a median of 195.6 million bushels. Large speculators raised their net long position in soybeans futures in the week to Feb. 23, regulatory data showed. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5295 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.68% to settled at 87595 while prices down -43 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5109 and below same could see a test of 5082 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5174, a move above could see prices testing 5212.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5082-5212.

* Soyabean prices dropped on profit booking pressured by expectations for a large crop in top-exporter Brazil.

* USDA forecast domestic supplies of soybeans would remain historically tight into 2022 despite its projection for a record-large harvest this autumn.

* Large speculators raised their net long position in soybeans futures in the week to Feb. 23, regulatory data showed.

*  At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  32 Rupees to 5295 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

Soya oil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.61% at 1180.8 on profit booking after prices gained amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months. A strong export pace of soybeans could limit the amount of supplies available to crush into soymeal and soyoil. Government of India, lowered basic import duty on edible oils. The basic custom duty on CPO slashed from 27.5 percent to 15 percent whereas, soybean oil and sunflower oil duty is cut to 15% from 35%. The government has proposed 17.5% cess on CPO and 20% cess on crude soybean and sunflower oil, further added. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India has compiled the export data for export of oilmeals for the month of December 2020 and provisionally reported at 512,997 tons compared to 220,404 tons in December, 2019 i.e. more than doubled (133%). The overall export of oilmeals during April to December 2020 recovered and provisionally reported at 2,461,696 tons compared to 1,955,276 tons during the same period of previous year i.e. up by 26%. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1196.05 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.25% to settled at 37250 while prices down -7.3 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1175 and below same could see a test of 1169 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1185, a move above could see prices testing 1189.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1169-1189.

* Ref soyoil dropped on profit booking after prices gained amidamid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil

* Very heavy rains remain in the forecast for Brazil's northern soybean belt, where farmers are trying to harvest the soybean crop.

* A strong export pace of soybeans could limit the amount of supplies available to crush into soymeal and soyoil. 

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1196.05 Rupees per 10 kgs.

 

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.84% at 1045 hit by weak February exports data from cargo surveyors and signs of rising output. Palm oil inventories in Malaysia, the world's second largest producer and exporter, will remain low throughout the year and continue to support high prices, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said. Output in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia fell last year due to wet weather and labour shortages, pushing Malaysia's stockpile at the end of 2020 to a more than 13-year low of 1.27 million tonnes. Output in Malaysia – the world's second-largest producer of palm oil – is seen increasing as Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) estimated Feb. 1-25 production to rise by 19.78%. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for February fell 8.15% to 1,000,854 tonnes from 1,089,702 tonnes shipped during January, according to independent inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia. Malaysian palm oil product exports for February fell 5.5% to 1,001,440 tonnes from 1,059,225 tonnes shipped in the previous month, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said. Indonesia has set the crude palm oil reference price for March at $1,036.22 per tonne. Indonesian crude palm oil export levies in March will remain at $255 per tonne. Export taxes will remain at $93 per tonne. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -13.4 Rupees to end at 1068.9 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.15% to settled at 8139 while prices down -8.8 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1040 and below same could see a test of 1034.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1048.6, a move above could see prices testing 1052.1.         

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1034.9-1052.1.

* Crude palm oil dropped hit by weak February exports data from cargo surveyors and signs of rising output. 

* Malaysia's Feb palm oil exports fall 8.2% – AmSpec Agri

* Malaysia's Feb palm oil exports fall 5.5% – ITS

* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -13.4 Rupees to end at 1068.9 Rupees.

 

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -1.58% at 5473 as the mustard sowing was excellent this year and production is expected to be better with favorable weather. However downside seen limited due to better demand as millers remain in the procurement due to the pipeline being empty. The arrival of new crops has started increasing in the mandis. The daily arrival of mustard in the current weekend was 1.85 lakh kattas. The daily arrival of new mustard in the mandis of Rajasthan has reached 70 thousand kattas. Mustard is getting up to 7/15 percent moisture. The weather is changing, so the moisture content is expected to decrease soon. The daily arrival of new mustard in the mandis of Uttar Pradesh is increasing day by day. The latest Government data shows that the planted area in Mustard or RM seed has so far reached 73.25 Lakh hectares as against 68.64 Lakh hectares during last year’s corresponding period. The government aims to take the area under mustard to around 80 lakh hectares this year, under the Oilseeds Mission program. The mustard crop continues providing better prices to farmers than the MSP till now. India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level due to higher sowing and conducive weather. The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5650 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.38% to settled at 39950 while prices down -88 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5430 and below same could see a test of 5386 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5534, a move above could see prices testing 5594.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5386-5594.

* Mustard seed dropped as the mustard sowing was excellent this year and production is expected to be better with favorable weather.

* However downside seen limited due to better demand as millers remain in the procurement due to the pipeline being empty.

* The arrival of new crops has started increasing in the mandis. The daily arrival of mustard in the current weekend was 1.85 lakh kattas.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5650 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 3.98% at 8978 as high domestic and export demand, coupled with fears of lower output, have fuelled prices. Apart from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher. The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve. The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra. The arrival of new crop on the Erode line will start in the month of March. But due to less sowing this year, the production is also less likely than last year. During the current week Erode single polished bundle in Erode Mandi was quoted at Rs 6100/6300 with a rise from Rs 5800/6000. In recent sessions, prices were up in the spot due to lack of stock and inward arrivals of new goods in the month of February-March. During the current week, the price of Gatta without polish in Warangal rose by Rs 200 to Rs 5600. While the double polished bundle was strengthened from Rs 6200 to Rs 6400. Further new goods arrived in the turmeric auction held in Sangli Mandi, Maharashtra in the beginning of the week but due to moisture and quality turmeric trade was low. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7909.1 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.91% to settled at 8740 while prices up 344 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8826 and below same could see a test of 8674 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9054, a move above could see prices testing 9130.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8674-9130.

* Turmeric prices rallied amid high domestic and export demand, coupled with fears of lower output

* Apart from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher.

* The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7909.1 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.

 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.97% at 13745 due to high export demand and Cumin sowing in Gujarat has gone down to 4.69 lakh hectares from last season’s 4.88 lakh hectares. Some support seen as a statement from the Spices Board said the export of spices, which had fetched ₹12,273.81 crores in the first half of the current fiscal between April and September, had grown by 19 percent compared to the corresponding period last year. The Unjha market is receiving nearly 1,000 bags per day from north Gujarat, Saurashtra, and parts of Rajasthan. Jeera production for 2021-22 (marketing period) is estimated at 391,291 MT (around 71 lakh bags each of 55 kg) compared to last year’s 451,451 MT (82 lakh bags). Major export demand coming from UAE and other gulf countries ahead of Ramzan. Domestic demand is also boosted by Ramzan and marriage season. Weather conditions in major producing states have hampered the quality and supply of jeera. On the international front support is also seen as turkey and Syria have reported less production of cumin this season. Production in Syria had dropped around 25-30 percent in 2020 versus the previous year due to political instability that has hampered the farming sector. Cumin production in Turkey was around 15,000 tonne, this year it is estimated to be lower. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13300 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 1242 while prices up 265 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13575 and below same could see a test of 13400 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13835, a move above could see prices testing 13920.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13400-13920.

* Jeera prices gained due to high export demand and sowing in Gujarat has gone down to 4.69 lakh hectares

* Jeera production for 2021-22 is estimated at 391,291 MT compared to last year’s 451,451 MT

* The Unjha market is receiving nearly 1,000 bags per day from north Gujarat, Saurashtra, and parts of Rajasthan.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13300 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.13% at 22310 on tight supply and high demand from export & mills. China's demand for India's cotton has pushed domestic yarn prices higher. China's demand for Indian yarn resumed to pre-Covid levels during November-December 2020, as against a volume drop from Bangladesh and Vietnam during same period. Pakistan may allow cotton import from India through land route as prospects of gradual restoration of bilateral trade ties have brightened after the new ceasefire agreement along the Loc. Maharashtra spinning mills seek subsidy on cotton purchase from CCI. CCI has granted a subsidy of Rs 300 per candy to cooperative spinning mills in Maharashtra. The Corporation has also waived-off the security deposit of `2 lakh that the mills have to pay before participating in the e-auction process of the cotton bodyCCI exported cotton to Bangladesh through a goods train from Junagarh Road railway station. The current consignment is of 6,500 bales of cotton weighing around 2,471 tonnes. A weekly export sales report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed net sales of 247,800 running bales (RB) for 2020/2021 with top buyer China picking up 59,500 RB of the total. In spot market, Cotton gained by 40 Rupees to end at 22110 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.97% to settled at 8889 while prices up 30 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 22140 and below same could see a test of 21960 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22520, a move above could see prices testing 22720.

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 21960-22720.

* Cotton gained on tight supply and high demand from export & mills.

* A weekly export sales report from USDA showed net sales of 247,800 RB for 2020/2021 with top buyer China picking up 59,500 RB of the total.

* China's demand for India's cotton has pushed domestic yarn prices higher.

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 40 Rupees to end at 22110 Rupees.

 

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 0.85% at 4957 as the Centre is expected to purchase around 600,000 tn chana harvested in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) under the price support scheme from farmers in Madhya Pradesh. "Initially, the government approved purchase of 600,000 tn chana from farmers in Madhya Pradesh. It may ask to buy more chana on the state government's request". If the government allows higher purchases, overall procurement this season is likely to surpass last year's level of over 700,000 tn. The Ministry of Agriculture approved the purchase of 1,67,000 tonnes of chana under the price support scheme in Karnataka for the Rabi season 2020-21. During the current financial year, there are signs of a decline in the import of gram from abroad and some increase in the import of country gram. According to the available data, 60 thousand tonnes of chana were imported in the eight months of April-November 2020, while 55 thousand tonnes are estimated in December 2020 and 21,000 tonnes in January 2021. Thus, in the ten months of April 2020 to January 2021, a total of 1.36 lakh tonnes of gram were imported. In comparison, in the 12 months of April 2019 to March 2020, more than 2.51 lakh tonnes of chana were sourced from abroad. The arrival of new goods of gram in India has started in some areas. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4900 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.01% to settled at 24680 while prices up 42 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4902 and below same could see a test of 4847 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5001, a move above could see prices testing 5045.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 4847-5045.

* Chana gained as the Centre is expected to purchase around 600,000 tn chana harvested in 2020-21 from farmers in Madhya Pradesh.

* The Ministry of Agriculture approved the purchase of 1,67,000 tonnes of chana under the price support scheme in Karnataka for the Rabi season 2020-21.

* During the current financial year, there are signs of a decline in the import of gram from abroad and some increase in the import of country gram.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4900 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

-www.kediaadvisory.com

 

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