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Global Market Round Up

Asian stocks are set for a tepid start to October after their worst monthly performance in almost 14 years. Meanwhile, oil surged in early Asian trading after delegates said OPEC+ was considering cutting output by more than 1 million barrels a day.

With September now behind us, gold has posted six months of consecutive losses. The last time the gold marketsaw six months of decline was from April to September 2018.

Crude Oil prices remained in the range of $83 to 78 throughout the week. Oil is now trading below where it was before the war because of macroeconomic headwindssuch asthe stronger US dollar and recessionary concerns.

Base metals prices traded mixed last week with copper and aluminium gaining by 2% and 1.7% respectively while lead and zinc ended in the red.

Commodity Weekly BULLION

* With September now behind us, gold has posted six months of consecutive losses. The last time the gold market saw six months of decline was from April to September 2018. After September, the precious metal when on to build a strong uptrend that culminated with prices pushing to a new record high above $2,000 an ounce. The same pattern is also forming in gold's bearish speculative positioning, which is at its highest level since December 2018. Gold prices welcomed the BOE’s dramatic intervention that avoided an imminent gilt crash and sent global bond yields sharply lower. This was somewhat expected and serves as a reminder that gold will do just fine once the global bond marketselloff is truly over.

Strategy forthe Week

* Gold Dec. future has been finding support on its upward-sloping trend line on the weekly charts. Bias for both Gold and Silver is bullish for the coming weeks. Traders should cut the shorts and initiate fresh longs with 49200 stop loss in Dec Futures. Resistances for the same are seen at 50840, 52000 and 52860 for the coming weeks. Dipsshould be utilized to accumulate long in Gold Dec futures. Silver Dec futuresshould be held long with 54355 stop loss. Resistances for the same are seen at 58500 and 59400.

COMEX GOLD

COMEX Silver

Commodity Weekly ENERGY

* Crude Oil prices remained in the range of $83 to 78 throughout the week. Oil is now trading below where it was before the war because of macroeconomic headwinds such as the stronger US dollar and recessionary concerns. Brent crude soared above $125 a barrel following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. It’s since dropped to $85 as central banks raise interest rates to fight inflation and economies from the US to China slow, tempering the spectacular windfall enjoyed by the Saudis and their partner**s.

* OPEC+ plans to hold its first in-person meeting on October 05 since March 2020 as the cartel weighs cutting oil production to stem a recentslump in prices.

* The White House plans to meet Friday with some of the largest gasoline producers in the US, including Exxon Mobil Corp. and Shell Plc, amid concerns about potential price spikesin the wake of hurricanesIan and Fiona.

* In the medium term, MCX Crude oil October future is expected to trade 5900 to 7150. The view remains bearish for as long as it trades below 7250. MCX Natural gas October future has support at 510 and resistance at 627.

WTI Crude oil

NYMEX Natural Gas

Commodity Weekly BASE METALS

Base metals prices traded mixed last week with copper and aluminium gaining by 2% and 1.7% respectively while lead and zinc ended in the red.

Industrial metals soared yesterday following news that the LME is considering a ban on more Russian commodities. Any move by the LME to block Russian supplies could have significant ramifications for the global metals markets, as the country is a major producer of aluminium, nickel and copper.

The spot premium for refined copper was at 605 yuan ($85.36) a tonne on Thursday, up from 50 yuan a tonne at the end of last year. Earlier this month, it hit 825 yuan, the highestsince November 2021.

Refined copper demand in China rose 5% year-on-year in the third quarter and is seen accelerating to a 9% year-on-year growth inOctober-December.

We expect base metals to trade with a positive bias. MCX Copper October support lies at Rs. 636 and resistance at Rs. 661. MCX Zinc Oct support lies at Rs. 264, resistance at Rs. 280. MCX Aluminium Octsupport placed at Rs. 189 with resistance at Rs. 201.

LME Copper

LME Aluminium

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