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Published on 21/09/2020 10:57:17 AM | Source: Kedia Advisory

Cotton trading range for the day is 17780-18020 By Kedia Advisory

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Commodity Tips #Kedia Advisory

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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.51% at 51715 as the dollar weakened and on concerns about economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis. The U.S. Federal Reserve vowed to keep interest rates near zero for a long time, while the United States considered a proposed $1.5 trillion coronavirus aid bill. The Bank of England said it was considering negative interest rates amid rising COVID-19 cases, higher unemployment and a possible new Brexit shock, while the Bank of Japan signalled readiness to ramp up stimulus. Near-zero interest rates globally and demand for a hedge against perceived inflation have helped gold gain nearly 29% so far this year. Gold jewelers in India pinned hopes on an upcoming festival season, with dealers offering discounts for a fifth straight week to lure customers back to shops, as activity remained muted in Asian bullion hubs. In India, discounts eased to $23 an ounce over official domestic prices, inclusive of 12.5% import and 3% sales levies, from last week's $30. In China, discounts eased slightly to $44-$48 an ounce from last week's $45-$50, with most purchases coming only from the investment side. Hedge funds and other money managers increased their net long positions on gold, in the latest week, according to CFTC. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.73% to settled at 8433 while prices up 262 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51495 and below same could see a test of 51276 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51891, a move above could see prices testing 52068.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 51276-52068.
* Gold prices rose as the dollar weakened and on concerns about economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis.
* Fed vowed to keep interest rates near zero for a long time, while the United States considered a proposed $1.5 trillion coronavirus aid bill.
* Gold speculators raised their net long position by 10,622 contracts to 165,251 in the week ended Sept. 15.

 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.39% at 67877 on late profit booking after prices gained amid rising worries about coronavirus cases and uncertainty about the pace of economic recovery prompted traders to seek the safe haven asset. A report released by the Conference Board showed a continued increase by its reading on leading U.S. economic indicators in the month of August, although the pace of growth slowed compared to recent months. The Conference Board said its leading economic index jumped by 1.2% in August after surging up by 2% in July and spiking by 3.1% in June. The University of Michigan's report showed consumer sentiment continued to improve in the month of September. The preliminary report said the consumer sentiment index climbed to 78.9 in September from 74.1 in August. A report released by the Labor Department showed first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell less than expected in the week ended September 12th. The Labor Department said initial jobless claims slipped to 860,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the previous week's revised level of 893,000Hedge funds and other money managers increased their net long positions on silver in the latest week, according to a weekly report from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. Silver speculators raised their net long position by 3,545 contracts to 39,287. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.42% to settled at 16581 while prices down -265 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67404 and below same could see a test of 66932 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68424, a move above could see prices testing 68972.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 66932-68972.
* Silver prices dropped on late profit booking after prices gained amid rising worries about coronavirus cases and uncertainty about the pace of economic recovery.
* A report by the Conference Board showed a continued increase by its reading on leading U.S. economic indicators in the month of August
* The University of Michigan's report showed consumer sentiment continued to improve in the month of September.

 

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.03% at 2993 as producers prepared to resume operations in the Gulf of Mexico and data showed Saudi Arabian exports rose from record lows. U.S. crude oil production rose last week for the second week in a row, growing to 10.9 million barrels per day, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. Meanwhile, crude inventories fell to 496 million barrels, their lowest since April, the data showed. Gasoline inventories also fell, dropping to 231.5 million barrels, their lowest since November. The Saudi Energy Minister warned traders against betting heavily in the oil market saying he will try to make the market "jumpy" and promised those who gamble on the oil price would be hurt "like hell". The comments by Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, OPEC's most influential minister, came after a virtual meeting of a key panel of OPEC and allies, led by Russia, known as OPEC+.Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports rebounded in July to 5.73 million barrels per day (bpd) from a record low in June, official data showed on Thursday. At 4.98 million bpd, crude exports in June were the weakest on record, according to data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) stretching back to 2002. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.11% to settled at 1277 while prices down -31 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 2958 and below same could see a test of 2924 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3034, a move above could see prices testing 3076.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 2924-3076.
* Crude oil dropped as producers prepared to resume operations in the Gulf of Mexico and data showed Saudi Arabian exports rose from record lows.
* U.S. crude oil production rose last week for the second week in a row, growing to 10.9 million barrels per day
* Saudi energy minister warns oil market gamblers will be hurt "like hell"

 

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.13% at 150.5 as rising output in the Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Sally offset an increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Pressure also seen after last week's storage build was bigger than expected, keeping stockpiles on track to reach a record high by the end of October. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities injected 89 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage in the week ended Sept. 11. That is higher than the 79-bcf build forecasted poll and compares with an increase of 82 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2015-19) average build of 77 bcf. The increase boosted stockpiles to 3.614 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 13.2% above the five-year average of 3.193 tcf for this time of year. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states was on track to rise to 85.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) from a two-year low of 84.8 bcfd on Wednesday due to Sally-related shutdowns. With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would fall from 85.3 bcfd this week to 81.9 bcfd next week. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, averaged 5.4 bcfd so far in September. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -23.72% to settled at 12483 while prices down -0.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 145.2 and below same could see a test of 139.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 153.6, a move above could see prices testing 156.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 139.9-156.7.
* Natural gas dropped as rising output in the Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Sally offset an increase in LNG exports.
* Prices were already trading down on expectations output would start to rise from a two-year low as producers return wells shut-in for Hurricane Sally
* EIA said utilities injected 89 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage in the week ended Sept. 11.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1% at 536.85 buoyed by a weaker dollar and strong fund buying on hopes that Chinese stimulus would spur demand in the world's biggest metals consumer. Data showed recovery in the U.S. labour market stalling and amid disappointment that the Federal Reserve made no new monetary easing commitments at its meeting. Demand for refined copper in China continues to ease, with premiums falling $4.50 to $59, data showed, extending a decline from highs of $100 six weeks ago. That is the lowest since the start of April. LME cash copper prices have traded around $25 higher than three months prices in the backwardated market structure that suggests low copper stocks in markets outside of China. Stocks of copper in Shanghai bonded areas increased for the seventh consecutive week, as domestic consumption remained weak. Data showed that the stocks expanded 11,500 mt from the prior week to 276,500 mt as of Friday September 18. China’s copper cathode output rose sharply in August due to minimal maintenance and ample supply of copper scrap. Survey showed that China produced 810,500 mt of copper cathode in August, up 8.14% from July and 5.58% from a year earlier. For the first eight months of 2020, China’s copper cathode output totalled 5.99 million mt, up 3.39% from the same period last year. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.59% to settled at 3900 while prices up 5.3 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 531.5 and below same could see a test of 526 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 540.6, a move above could see prices testing 544.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 526-544.2.
* Copper gained buoyed by a weaker dollar and strong fund buying on hopes that Chinese stimulus would spur demand.
* LME cash copper prices have traded around $25 higher than three months prices in the backwardated market structure that suggests low copper stocks in markets
* Stocks of copper in Shanghai bonded areas increased for the seventh consecutive week, as domestic consumption remained weak.
 

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.31% at 197.85 as resurgent Chinese industry bolstered the outlook for demand. Prices of the metal used to galvanise steel are up 34% from their low in March as manufacturing, steel production and infrastructure building accelerate in China, the largest consumer. The OECD upgraded its forecast for the global economy this year to a 4.5% contraction from a 6% contraction. Zinc inventories in LME-registered warehouses have risen to 219,625 tonnes from 50,000 tonnes in January, but stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange sheds have slipped to 58,453 tonnes from 170,000 tonnes in March. The discount of cash zinc to the three-month contract on the LME shrank to $21.40 a tonne from $31 earlier this month, suggesting tighter nearby supply. The roughly 13 million tonne a year zinc market saw a 205,000 tonne surplus in the first six months of 2020, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group said last month. China’s refined zinc output stood at 509,100 mt in August, rising 16,300 or up 3.3% on month and up 1.98% on year. Output totalled 3.87 million mt in the first eight months of this year, up 3.68% from the same period last year. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.15% to settled at 2123 while prices up 2.55 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 196.3 and below same could see a test of 194.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 198.9, a move above could see prices testing 199.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 194.6-199.8.
* Zinc prices gained as resurgent Chinese industry bolstered the outlook for demand.
* Stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange sheds have slipped to 58,453 tonnes from 170,000 tonnes in March.
* The discount of cash zinc to the three-month contract on the LME shrank to $21.40 a tonne from $31 earlier this month, suggesting tighter nearby supply.


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -1.53% at 1090.8 as pressure seen nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports increased 43,000 wmt from September 11 to 8.95 million wmt. The dollar weakened as US weekly jobless claims and new home starts both fell short of expectations. The US Labor Department’s report showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, but remained at extremely high levels as the labor market recovery shifts into low gear and consumer spending cools. Investors remained on edge about the outlook on further coronavirus stimulus as well as the timing of a viable vaccine. The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged and maintained its current level of asset purchases, but warned that the outlook for the economy remains “unusually uncertain.” The Bank also revealed that the Monetary Policy Committee had been briefed on plans to explore how a negative bank rate could be implemented effectively, meaning the BOE is now openly considering how to use negative interest rates. China’s refined nickel output declined 2.25% or 330 mt from July, but rose 12.94% from a year earlier, to 14,300 mt in August. Output at Gansu smelters shrank 3.85% on the month, while that at Lianning and Shandong smelters was little changed as they kept normal production. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.15% to settled at 1246 while prices down -16.9 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1081.9 and below same could see a test of 1073.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1106.1, a move above could see prices testing 1121.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1073.1-1121.5.
* Nickel dropped as pressure seen nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports increased
* Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports increased 43,000 wmt from September 11 to 8.95 million wmt
* China’s refined nickel output declined 2.25% or 330 mt from July, but rose 12.94% from a year earlier, to 14,300 mt in August.



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.14% at 144.45 as uncertainty over the economic outlook weighed on US dollar index. Prices also remained supported amid tightened supply of imported scrap aluminium and falling aluminium social inventories. Investors remained on edge about the outlook on further coronavirus stimulus as well as the timing of a viable vaccine. Primary aluminium ingot inventories in China declined moderately, showed data. Social inventories of primary aluminium ingots across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, decreased 24,000 mt from a week ago to 740,000 mt as of Thursday September 17. Imports of unwrought aluminium alloy stood at 131,000 mt in June, rising 88.3% from May and surging 754.5% from a year earlier, and totalled 466,500 mt in the first half of 2020, soaring 706.1% from the same period last year, according to the latest customs data. Orders for imported aluminium alloy rose sharply from late April as its demand surged, and almost all these cargoes arrived in June. However, imports are expected to fall below 100,000 mt in July as orders decreased in June amid concerns about the impact of the Secondary Cast Aluminium Alloy Raw Materials. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.65% to settled at 538 while prices up 0.2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 144.3 and below same could see a test of 144 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 144.9, a move above could see prices testing 145.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 144-145.2.
* Aluminium gains as uncertainty over the economic outlook weighed on US dollar index.
* Prices also remained supported amid tightened supply of imported scrap aluminium and falling aluminium social inventories.
* Investors remained on edge about the outlook on further coronavirus stimulus as well as the timing of a viable vaccine.

 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.06% at 949.3 as demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector will remain weak in India, as concerns are high in India as we are now in second place with the second-largest number of confirmed cases in the world, 4,204,613. The rise in cases comes as the government continues to lift restrictions to try to promote an economy that lost millions of jobs when the virus hit in March. The sentiments remain weak for Mentha oil prices as selling pressure seen after GlobalData data revealed that UK cosmetics and toiletries sector will see a €1. 8bn (£1.7bn) value decline in 2020, after a tough year, largely determined by the ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis. But growth will come back in 2021 with the right investments. Downside may be restricted as support can be seen after FAFAI has pointed out that as people across the world are becoming more conscious about the products they consume in the wake of the pandemic Covid-19, FAFAI has taken up this step to ensure they only use ingredients that are considered safe in their products for domestic consumption as well as for exports. New arrivals are likely to pick up. Arrivals are likely to touch 100 drums per day. During the peak arrival season, 400-500 drums will collectively arrive daily in the markets of Chandausi, Sambhal and Barabanki in Uttar Pradesh. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.73% to settled at 138 while prices up 2.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 943.6 and below same could see a test of 921.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 978.6, a move above could see prices testing 991.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 931.6-978.4.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -11.2 Rupees to end at 1112.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector will remain weak in India, as concerns are high in India
* Pressure seen after GlobalData data revealed that UK cosmetics and toiletries sector will see a €1. 8bn value decline in 2020.
* The yield of mentha is expected to be high this time too, due to this, traders are not taking fresh positions in mentha.


Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 2.61% at 4006 as crops in the fields are being destroyed due to continuous rains. Hundreds of acres of fields have damaged farmers due to kharif season crop failure. A memorandum was submitted to Naib Tehsildar Sahadev Maurya in the name of Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan, demanding a fair compensation by conducting a survey of the crops destroyed by the rain. After a relatively calm July, the southwest monsoon is back in August, erasing not only the rainfall deficit, but also increasing the total rainfall by seven percent above normal. China is set to buy a record amount of American soybeans this year as lower prices help the Asian nation boost purchases pledged under the phase-one trade deal. The total from the U.S. will probably reach about 40 million tons in 2020, the people said, asking not to be identified because the forecast isn’t public. That would be around 25% more than in 2017, the baseline year for the trade deal, and roughly 10% more than the record set in 2016, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. China’s agriculture ministry said it expects soybean imports to rise in the second half, including from America as the phase-one deal is implemented. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.12% to settled at 43335 while prices down -31 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 3895 and below same could see a test of 3868 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3945, a move above could see prices testing 3968.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 3911-4063.
* Soyabean prices gained as crops in the fields are being destroyed due to continuous rains.
* Hundreds of acres of fields have damaged farmers due to kharif season crop failure.
* China is set to buy a record amount of American soybeans this year as lower prices help the Asian nation boost purchases
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  22 Rupees to 3969 Rupees per 100 kgs.
 

Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.92% at 946.3 as prices seen supported due to the pick up in spot demand following relaxations in the lockdown. Soybean oil imports in August are estimated to have dropped to about 391,000 tons from 484,525 tons a month earlier. India’s total edible oil imports probably slumped to 1.3 million tons compared with 1.52 million tons in July. The Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) stated today that the imports of vegetable oils stood at 13.70 lakh tonnes in August 2020, down 14% compared to August 2019. Edible oil imports stood at 13.08 lakh tonnes, down 14.11% on year. The local edible oil imports had hit an 11 month high of 15.17 lakh tonnes in July 2020. According to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), U.S. Aug soybean crush fell by 4.48 percent m-o-m to 165.055 million bushels from 172.794 million bushels in July 2020, below market expectation. Crush of soybean in Aug was lower by 1.80 percent y-o-y compared to Aug 2019 figure of 168.085 million bushels. Soy oil stocks in U.S. at the end of Aug fell 6.18 percent m-o-m to 1.519 billion lbs compared to 1.619 billion lbs in end July 2020. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.72% to settled at 34910 while prices up 19.3 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 922 and below same could see a test of 906 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 947, a move above could see prices testing 956.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 931-961.
* Ref soyoil gained as prices seen supported due to the pick up in spot demand following relaxations in the lockdown.
* India’s total edible oil imports probably slumped to 1.3 million tons compared with 1.52 million tons in July.
* U.S. August soy oil end stocks fell 6.18 percent m-o-m: NOPA
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 936.55 Rupees per 10 kgs.



Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.32% at 808.5 on increased demand from China ahead of a key festival week. China, the world's second-largest palm buyer, has increased buying ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and Golden Week – a week-long holiday starting from Oct. 1. In top buyer India, seasonal demand ahead of the Diwali festival remains uncertain as the number of coronavirus infections surge past 5 million, raising fears of another lockdown to contain the outbreak. Malaysia's palm oil exports during Sept. 1-15 rose 12% from the month before, according to data released by cargo surveyors. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Sep. 1-15 rose 12.2 percent to 745,565 tonnes from 664,392 tonnes shipped during Aug. 1-15, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said. Palm oil imports by top buyer India probably fell from a 10-month high as a slow recovery of the food services industry curtailed demand for the world’s most-used vegetable oil. Inbound shipments fell 11% to 734,000 tons in August from a month earlier as traders and refiners cut back purchases after replenishing reserves in July. A drop in purchases by India could boost stockpiles in top growers Indonesia and Malaysia. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.65% to settled at 3636 while prices up 18.1 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 781.3 and below same could see a test of 767.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 802.6, a move above could see prices testing 810.4.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 796.3-818.9.
* Crude palm oil prices gained on increased demand from China ahead of a key festival week.
* Malaysia's palm oil exports during Sept. 1-15 rose 12% from the month before, according to data released by cargo surveyors.
* Palm oil imports by top buyer India probably fell from a 10-month high as a slow recovery of the food services industry curtailed demand
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 13.5 Rupees to end at 808.3 Rupees.



Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.83% at 5412 as support seen due to low crop estimates, festival and seasonal demand and increased prices by Nafed are strong factors. It is estimated that the mustard oil consumption in the domestic market has increased by 12% to 15% this year as mustard oil is considered as immunity booster in the fight against corona infection. However, the remaining available supply of mustard in the market is not sufficient to comfortably fulfil demand of mustard until the arrival of new crop. All major mandis for RM Seed are functioning on normal course however, some mandis like Kota and Bikaner have reduced their operational capacity as some Corona positive cases were detected. As per USDA, World Mustard seed production is estimated to increase marginally by around 2% to 698 Lakh tonnes during 2020-21 against 682 Lakh tonnes seen during 2019-20. However, beginning stock is expected to fall by around 28% to 65 Lakh tonnes. Hence, the total supply is projected to marginally fell by around 1% to 914 Lakh tonnes. Ending Stock too expected to fell by 8% to 60 Lakh tonnes as compared to 65 Lakh tonnes last year. NAFED has plan to procure RM seed around 18 Lakh tonnes under PSS scheme across the states. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.78% to settled at 30830 while prices down -25 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5293 and below same could see a test of 5265 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5343, a move above could see prices testing 5365.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5298-5488.
* Mustard gained as support seen due to low crop estimates, and increased prices by Nafed
* It is estimated that the mustard oil consumption in the domestic market has increased by 12% to 15% this year
* As per USDA, World Mustard seed beginning stock is expected to fall by around 28% to 65 Lakh tonnes.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 12.5 Rupees to end at 5487.5 Rupees per 100 kg.



Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.61% at 5932 as buyers reported active from lower levels as lower sowing area in Tamil Nadu due to deficient rainfall and in AP as shifted to Cotton and in some parts to Chilli due to current higher prices. At spot market, new Turmeric supply continued with higher moisture level around 4 - 5%. Turmeric production for 2020-21 is estimated at 452,698 MT (basis dry crop) compared to previous year’s 532,353 MT. AP Govt. declared Turmeric support prices. Earlier it was Rs.6,350/-per quintal but now it is Rs.6,850/-per quintal, for new crop from 1st February to 31st May. In Nizamabad, Turmeric growing regions, 70 – 75% harvesting completed and 60% traded already before lockdown as new crop arrivals started coming from January last week. In Erode, 50 - 55% turmeric harvesting completed, harvesting process reported slow due to shortage of labour. Coimbatore – 60% completed, harvesting is going on. Salem – 65% completed, harvesting is going on. In Maharashtra – Sangli growing regions – 15- 20% completed, harvesting is going on, in Basmat growing regions – 50-55% completed, harvesting is going on, not traded yet, in Nanded- 55-60% completed, harvesting is going on, not traded yet. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.24% to settled at 10450 while prices down -44 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 5844 and below same could see a test of 5792 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5946, a move above could see prices testing 5996.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 5836-6000.
* Turmeric prices gained as buyers reported active from lower levels as lower sowing area in Tamil Nadu
* At spot market, new Turmeric supply continued with higher moisture level around 4 - 5%.
* Turmeric production for 2020-21 is estimated at 452,698 MT (basis dry crop) compared to previous year’s 532,353 MT.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5610 Rupees remains unchanged at0 Rupees.



Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.39% at 13875 on update production of jeera may rise 29% to 535,500 tn in the 2019-20. Jeera exports are likely to have slumped over 59% on year to 20,000 tn in Jan-Mar as the coronavirus pandemic hit demand in key markets such as China. India was at an advantage in terms of exports due to lower production in Syria and Turkey–its main competitors. During Apr-Dec, exports had grown 27% to 167,000 tn, data from the Spices Board India showed. Syria and Turkey are yet to come in the market and there was great opportunity for India to export during the new crop season as the sole supplier but that is also gone. Both Syria and Turkey's output is likely to double in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun). Despite a peak demand period, the operations of spices industry in many upcountry markets have been hit in the wake of a labour shortage. Though the industry has to work in full swing prior to the onset of monsoon, their presence in the red zone area coupled with the departure of labour has affected the functioning of many spices industries especially in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.64% to settled at 2097 while prices down -55 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14025 and below same could see a test of 13965 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14140, a move above could see prices testing 14195.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13760-14040.
* Jeera prices dropped on update production of jeera may rise 29% to 535,500 tn
* Jeera exports are likely to have slumped over 59% on year to 20,000 tn in Jan-Mar.
* Despite a peak demand period, the operations of spices industry in many upcountry markets have been hit in the wake of a labour shortage.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -23.9 Rupees to end at 13770.85 Rupees per 100 kg.



Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.56% at 17880 as production is projected to rise mainly due to higher acreage under the fibre crop and adequate rains in key producing states. Timely and well distributed rains across the country are likely to boost yields compared to 2019-20 season. The area under cotton in the country was at 12.9 mln ha so far, up 2% on year, according to farm ministry data. Of the total area, around 11.6 mln ha or nearly 90% of the area is under Bt cotton. Sowing has almost come to an end, and so far acreage in most states, barring Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, has surpassed the normal area for the season. After witnessing a major slump in the lockdown period due to procurement issues, India’s cotton exports seem set to revive. According to Indian Cotton Association’s estimates, cotton exports are now expected to touch 65 lakh bales this year against its June estimate of 40 lakh bales — a 63 per cent improvement. Last year, India exported 50 lakh bales of cotton, showed data from Cotton Corporation of India (CCI). This growth is expected in the backdrop of strong global demand for mask and surgical gown production along with lower domestic prices, which have made foreign sales economically viable. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.56% to settled at 760 while prices up 50 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 17950 and below same could see a test of 17880 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 18080, a move above could see prices testing 18140.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 17780-18020.
* Cotton prices dropped as production is projected to rise mainly due to higher acreage under the fibre crop
* Timely and well distributed rains across the country are likely to boost yields compared to 2019-20 season.
* The area under cotton in the country was at 12.9 mln ha so far, up 2% on year, according to farm ministry data.
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 140 Rupees to end at 17490 Rupees.



Chana

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.27% at 5105 on profit booking after prices gained due to lack of stock and increasing demand for pulses and gram flour in the festive season, the price of gram has risen strongly. The traders have cast doubt on the official estimate of the production of gram in the last Rabi season. In the third advance production estimate for the crop year 2019-20 (July-June) released in the month of May by the Union Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, 109 million tonnes of gram production was estimated in the country. In addition, the consumption of gram has increased due to the inclusion of gram in the free grain distribution scheme started in the Corona period. The demand for gram flour in gram flour increased due to the cost of peas, and to meet the demand of pulses and gram flour in the festive season, the purchase of mills in gram is going fast. With the economy coming out of lockdown, consumption is likely to increase and prices are also rising due to festive season demand. Arrival of dollar chana in mandis across Madhya Pradesh today was recorded at 7,000 bags against 1,500 bags in Indore mandis. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.16% to settled at 63990 while prices up 40 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5056 and below same could see a test of 4984 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5175, a move above could see prices testing 5222.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 5049-5177.
* Chana droppd on profit booking after prices gained due to lack of stock and increasing demand for pulses and gram flour
* The rise in prices is a major reason for the reduction in production estimates.
* The consumption of gram has increased due to the inclusion of gram in the free grain distribution scheme started in the Corona period
* In Delhi spot market, chana remains unchanged at by 0 Rupees to end at 5029.05 Rupees per 100 kgs.


 

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