Published on 30/07/2021 1:03:36 PM | Source: Geojit Financial Services Ltd

Agri Picks Daily Technical Report 30 July 2021 - Geojit Financial

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Commodity Tips #Geojit Financial Services Ltd

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* Spices complex on NCDEX ended Thursday’s session in green. Jeera August futures on NCDEX bounced off from the two week lows probably on short-covering. However, tepid demand kept gains under check. In the meantime, fall in arrivals in the spot market lifted Turmeric August futures. Coriander August futures too inched higher.

* Production of spices in India is likely to have risen 3.5% on year to 10.5 million ton in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India.

* Jeera production is seen at 856,505 ton in FY 2020-21, down 6.1% on year according to the Spices Board.

* India exported 299,000 tn of jeera in 2020-21, up 40% on year according to the Spices Board.

* According to a survey conducted by the Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders, jeera production in India is likely to be 478520 tons in 2020-21 (Oct-Sep), down by 11 per cent yoy.

* The Spices Board has pegged coriander production at 822,210 tn, up 17.3% on year.

* According to Spices Board, Coriander exports from India were up 21% on year at 57,000 ton.

* Government sees 2020-21 coriander output at 720000 tons compared to 701000 tons a year ago.

* Coriander production in Gujarat is expected to rise 55 per cent to 216680 tonnes in 2020-21 season (Jul-Jun) due to sharp rise in acreage according to the state’s farm department’s second advance estimates.

* Spices Board sees exports of turmeric up 33% to 183000 tonnes in FY 2020-21 on yoy basis.

* Government sees 2020-21 turmeric output at 1.11 million tonnes compared to 1.15 million tons a year ago.

* Spices Board pegs FY21 small cardamom export 6,500 ton, up 251% on year.

* Output of small cardamom is seen rising by 100% on year to 22520 tons according to the Spices Board.



* All commodities in the oil seed portfolio rebounded yesterday. Aug RM seed prices recoiled on back of firm demand for oil in the spot markets amid lower arrivals. Aug Soybean futures prices regained from the previous losses on concerns over lower soybean acreage due to weak monsoon prevailing in the key growing areas. While, CPO MCX July futures traded higher tracking gains in Malaysian palm oil futures prices. Refined Soy oil Aug futures bounced back tracking gains in international markets.

* The Soybean Processors Association of India today requested the NCDEX to take immediate corrective measures to check unprecedented speculation in soybean futures trade on the bourse

* Farmers have sown crops across 72.1 mln ha so far in the 2021-22 (Jul-Jun) kharif season, down 8.9% from a year ago. In 2021-22 (Jul-Jun) kharif season so far, farmers have sown soybean across 10.25 mln ha, down by 8.7% from a year ago, according to farm ministry data.

* India's oilmeal exports declined 11% on year to 203,612 tn in June, according to data from The Solvent Extractors' Association of India today. For Apr-Jun, overall exports of oilmeal rose 27% on year to 735,312 tn.

* India's 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) mustard output is seen rising 22.6% on year to 8.95 mln tn, according to a joint survey by the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association.

* The government has slashed import duty on crude palm oil, refined, bleached and deodorised palm oil, palmolein, palm stearin and other palm oils with effect from Wednesday until Sep 30. Govt cuts import duty on crude palm oil to 10% and RBD palm oil & RBD palmolein to 37.5%.

* India's vegetable oil imports fell 17% on year to 996,014 tn in June, according to SEA. During Nov-Jun, the country imported nearly 8.7 mln tn of vegetable oil, up 5% from the year-ago period . As of Jul 1, India's ports had 727,000 tn of edible oil, and 1.26 mln tn was in the pipeline, the association said. The stock has increased by 27,000 tn on month to 1.98 mln as of Jul 1.

* The Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade has urged the government to prohibit import of edible oils from Nepal and Bangladesh at zero duty as it hurts domestic manufacturers.

* The government will distribute about 816,000 soybean seed mini-kits free of cost to farmers to ramp up oilseed output in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun) kharif season, an official release said.

* India's soymeal exports were largely unchanged on year and flat on month at 80,000 tn in June, The Soybean Processors Association of India data showed. During Oct-Jun, exports jumped over threefold to 1.9 mln tn from 594,000 tn a year ago.

* India's 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) mustard output is seen rising to 22.6% on year to 8.95 mln tn, according to a joint survey by the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association.

* Global 2020/21 oilseed production is forecast at 600 million tons, down slightly from June, according to data released by USDA in its July WASDE report. Oilseed exports are down 6 million tons from June primarily on lower soybean exports from Brazil, Argentina, and the United States. Oilseed crush is up slightly on increased peanut and rapeseed crush. Global oilseed stocks are up more than 3 million tons primarily on larger Brazil and Argentina soybean stocks more than offsetting lower China stocks.

* India is likely to produce around 10 mln tn of mustard in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), up 35% from a year ago, due to higher acreage and favourable weather conditions, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India.

* Farmers in the country have sown mustard across 6.9 mln ha, up 10.6% on year, in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) season so far, data from the farm ministry.

* Indian government slashed import duty of crude palm oil. The government cut import duty on crude palm oil by 10% to 27.5%, in the last week, to cool off soaring edible oil prices in domestic markets.

* India is likely to grow a record 10 mln tn mustard crop in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), mainly due to the likelihood of a sharp rise in acreage, according to Solvent Extractors' Association of India. The government has targeted an alltime high crop of 12.5 mln tn for this rabi season. The government has fixed the minimum support price at 4,650 rupees per 100 kg for 2020-21 (Apr-Mar) marketing season against 4,425 rupees per 100 kg the previous year.

* According to the first advance estimates for 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), castor seed output is seen at 1.7 mln tn compared with 1.8 mln tn in the fourth advance estimates for 2019-20, according to the data released by the farm ministry. While, according to traders, crop is seen at 1.5-1.6 mln tn. Farmers have sown castor seed across 792,000 ha in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun), down 16% from a year ago.

* India's exports of castor oil rose 18.7% on year to nearly 650,000 tn in 2020-21 (Apr-Mar), said B.V. Mehta, executive president, The Solvent Extractors' Association of India. Exports were at 547,646 tn in 2019-20.

* Malaysia's crude palm oil output rose 2.2% on month to a little over 1.6 mln tn in June, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed. Total palm oil stocks, too, in the country increased 2.8% on month to around 1.6 mln tn. The export of palm oil in June rose 11.8% on month to 1.4 mln tn, and the export of biodiesel significantly increased 101.5% on month to 39,877 tn.

* Malaysia's palm oil exports in Jul 1-25 were estimated at 1.15 mln tn, down 1.5% on month, data by cargo surveyor SGS Malaysia showed.



* Farmers have sown cotton across 10.9 mln ha in the 2021-22 (Jul-Jun) season, down by 7.7 % from a year ago, according to farm ministry.

* Failure of a revival in monsoon as forecast could lead to a shift towards maize and cotton from soybean and groundnut in states with deficient rains, CRISIL Research said.

* The USDA has pegged cotton output in India in 2021-22 (Aug-Jul) at 29.0 mln bales (1 US bale = 218 kg), up 2% on year, according to its July report. The area under cotton is seen at 12.9 mln ha in 2021-22, compared with an estimated 13.0 mln ha the previous year. The average yield of cotton is expected to rise to 498 kg per ha from 474 kg last year.

* India's cotton consumption in 2021-22 is projected at 25.5 mln bales, nearly 6% higher on year. Export estimate is seen at 6.2 mln bales, up 3% on year. Imports for India in the 2021-22 crop year are pegged at 1.0 mln bales. The closing stock of cotton for the country has been pegged at 14.3 mln bales.

* The USDA has scaled up its estimate for global production of cotton in 2021-22 (Aug-Jul) to 119.4 mln bales (1 US bale = 218 kg), compared with 118.9 mln bales projected a month ago. The upward revision in global production estimates is mainly due to a likely bigger crop in the US. In the US, production is seen at 17.8 mln bales in 2021-22, compared with 17.0 mln bales in the previous month.

* Global cotton consumption is seen at 123.2 mln bales in 2021-22, compared with 122.5 mln bales estimated in the previous month. Consumption is seen higher due to a likely rise in demand from India. Global exports are estimated at 45.9 mln bales compared with 46.6 mln bales a month ago.

* The agency has lowered its 2021-22 global ending stocks estimate to 87.7 mln bales, against 89.3 mln bales projected a month ago. The output in India, is maintained at 29.0 mln bales in 2021-22. Consumption for the country has been marginally raised to 25.5 mln bales compared with 25.0 mln bales estimated in June.

* Persistently high prices in the domestic market continued to be a drag on India's cotton exports in June, trade officials said. Just 300,000-400,000 bales (1 bale = 170 kg) of cotton were exported in June, a sharp drop from 500,000-600,000 bales shipped in May. In both March and April, exports stood at around 700,000-800,000 bales.

* The International Cotton Advisory Committee has scaled up its forecast for global prices in 2020-21 (AugJul), as ending stocks for the ongoing season are estimated to be lower, the agency said in a report. Lower production combined with higher demand will cause ending stocks to decline for the first time in four years.

* Global ending stocks for 2020-21 season are estimated at 20.98 mln tn, compared with 22.35 mln tn in the previous season. Production for the ongoing season is estimated at 24.2 mln tn, down 7% from the previous season.

* The fall has largely been attributed to a smaller crop in the US, India, Brazil, and Pakistan. Production in India is expected to be 6.05 mln tn, compared with 6.21 mln tn in the previous year. In the US, cotton production is estimated at 3.2 mln tn, against 4.3 mln tn a year ago.

* The committee has estimated global consumption at 25.6 mln tn, compared with 22.8 mln tn last year due to recovery in demand as the global economy improves. Global exports are seen higher at 10.1 mln tn, compared with 9.0 mln tn a year ago.

* The UK-based Cotton Outlook has scaled up its estimate for global consumption in 2020-21 (Aug-Jul) by 530,000 tn to 25.3 mln tn owing to strong demand from India, China and Vietnam. For the current season, the agency has scaled down its estimate for global output by 125,000 tn to 24 mln tn, largely because a smaller crop is expected in India and Brazil. The agency has projected cotton production in India, at 6 mln tn. Production in the US is seen steady at 3.2 mln tn.

* The Cotton Association of India has scaled up its export estimate for 2020-21 (Oct-Sep) to 7.2 mln bales (1 bale = 17 kg) from 6.5 mln bales projected a month ago. In the current marketing year, India shipped around 5.8 mln bales till May. The association has also raised its domestic consumption view to 32.5 mln bales, against 31.5 mln bales estimated the previous month. It has lowered its ending stock estimate to 9.4 mln bales, compared with 11.6 mln bales projected a month ago.

* Production and import estimates for the year is seen at 35.6 mln bales and 1.0 mln bales, respectively. Production in the northern region, which includes Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, is seen at 6.6 mln bales. In the central zone, which includes Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, the output is estimated at 19.4 mln bales. In the southern region, production is pegged at 9.2 mln bales. Of the total crop, around 34.0 mln bales had arrived in markets across India till May.

* India's cotton exports are likely to be 20% higher at 1.02 mln tn in 2020-21 (Oct-Sep) backed by its competitive pricing in the global markets and an improvement in international cotton consumption, ratings agency CARE Ratings said. Higher exports along with a recovery in domestic cotton demand will help reduce the surplus availability of cotton in the country despite higher supply, the rating agency said in a report.

* The government of Mali will provide more funding to cotton farmers to increase the crop and boost exports. The country's government will provide 8,000 cotton farmers with 20 billion CFA francs ($37 million) in total to reverse the country's poor cotton harvests in 2020-2021 season, and hit the new target set for the 2021-2022 season, the West African nation's Minister of Economy and Finance Alousseni Sanou said.

* Production of cotton in Haryana is expected to decline by 27% to 1.8 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg) in the 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) season due to yield loss caused by Parawilt, a senior state government official told Informist. Parawilt is a disease affecting cotton plants, which causes sudden drooping of leaves when irrigation is provided after a long dry spell.

* In the Union Budget for 2021-22 (Apr-Mar), Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman proposed customs duty of 5% on cotton and 10% on cotton waste. She also proposed an Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess of 5% on cotton, taking the overall customs duty to 10%. Customs duty on raw silk and silk yarn or yarn spun from silk waste has been increased to 15% from 10% earlier.

* The area under major kharif crops so far in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) was at 111.7 mln ha, up nearly 5% from a year ago, farm ministry data showed. Farmers have sown cotton across 13.04 mln ha in the 2020-21 (JulJun) season, up by 2.1% from a year ago, as of 25th Sept., farm ministry.

* India's cotton output in the 2020-21 (Oct-Sep) marketing year is seen at 38.0 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg), up 4% on year, according to traders' pegs 2020-21 cotton crop at 37.1 mln bales vs 35.5 mln bales.

* Govt cuts 2019-20 cotton output view to 35.5 mln bales vs 36.0 mln. The government has raised the sup



* Chana NCDEX August continued rising on Thursday on firm demand, hitting its highest level in about one month.

* Govt. procures nearly 700000 tons of chana in 2021-22 rabi marketing season

* The government exempted pulse importers from stockholding limits, but they are still required to declare their stocks on the Department of Consumer Affairs portal, an official release said. On Jul 2, the government imposed stockholding limits on pulses, barring moong, to curb the rise in prices.

* The limits, which were to be effective till Oct 31, had been applied on wholesalers, millers, retailers and importers. The government has also revised upwards the stockholding limits for wholesalers to 500 tn, provided there isn't more than 200 tn of one variety, the release said.

* The limit that had been imposed on wholesalers earlier was 200 tn, provided there was not more than 100 tn of one variety of pulse. For millers, the limit now will be the last six months of production or 50% of annual installed capacity, whichever is higher, the release said. Earlier, the limit was three months of production or 25% of annual installed capacity, whichever was higher.

* All the stakeholders--wholesalers, retailers, millers, and importers--are required to reduce the stocks with them to the prescribed limit within 30 days after they declare excess stocks, the release said. The government has procured 545980 tons of chana harvested in 2020-21 rabi season.

* Govt. pegs 2020-21 chana output to be at 12.6 million tonnes compared to 11.1million tonnes a year ago.

* Guar complex on NCDEX steadied on Thursday. Both guarseed and guargum August futures were held near their recent highs.

* As of 23 Jul 2021, the area under guar stood at 995.96 thousand hectares compared to1261thousand hectares sown during the same period last year in the major growing state of Rajasthan, according to the data released by Rajasthan state agriculture department.

* The National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange has launched sectorial indices for guar complex. NCDEX GUARDEX is price-based index which will show price changes taking place in the guar complex. In GUARDEX, the weightage for guar seed is 63.4%, followed by guar gum at 36.6%, the bourse said.

* India’s guar gum exports declined in the month of May 2021 by 2.25% to 20,340 tonnes compared to 20,808 tonnes during March 2021 at an average FoB of US $ 1676 per tonne in the month of May 2021 as compared to US $ 1392 per tonne in the month of March 2021.

* Further, the gum shipments were up by 19% in May 2021 compared to the same period last year. Of the total exported quantity, around 6,438 tonnes is bought US, Russia (2,959 tonnes) and Thailand (2,81 tonnes).

* The International Rubber Study Group (IRSG) expects global natural rubber consumption to increase by 7% in 2021, after declining 8.1% in 2020 because of the pandemic, secretary general Salvatore Pinizzotto said.


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