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Published on 9/04/2020 4:58:44 PM | Source: Kedia Advisory

Gold trading range for the day is 44538-45238 - Kedia Advisory

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Commodity #Kedia Advisory

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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.31% at 44941 after seeing a choppy ride as investors weighed the effectiveness or otherwise of the various stimulus steps from the governments and central banks in curbing the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak. While sentiments remain bullish after the news that the decline in world trade due to Covid-19 will likely exceed the trade slump brought by the global financial crisis of 2008‑09, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said on Wednesday, with merchandise trade expected to decline 13-32% in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Investors were also worried about a deepening recession. U.S. job openings fell in February, suggesting the labour market was losing momentum even before stringent measures to control the outbreak shuttered businesses, throwing millions out of work. The White House hopes Congress will nearly double the size of its programme to support ailing small businesses by the end of the week, as some of the nation's largest lenders still sit on the sidelines and others remain unable to access the system. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Tuesday declared a state of emergency to fight coronavirus infections in major population centres and rolled out a nearly $1 trillion stimulus package to soften the economic blow. SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.15% to 985.71 tonnes. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.33% to settled at 17011 while prices down -140 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 44740 and below same could see a test of 44538 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 45090, a move above could see prices testing 45238.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 44538-45238.
* Gold prices seen a choppy ride as investors weighed the effectiveness or otherwise of the various * stimulus steps from the governments and central banks
* U.S. job openings fell in February, suggesting the labour market was losing momentum even before stringent measures to control the outbreak shuttered businesses.
* The White House hopes Congress will nearly double the size of its programme to support ailing small businesses by the end of the week.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.82% at 43139 on profit booking as investors look for more central bank and government stimulus to counter the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Despite the continued spread of the disease, the number of new infections and fatalities has started to slow down, especially in Europe and Asia. The Trump administration asked Congress for an additional $250 billion in emergency economic aid for small U.S. businesses reeling from the coronavirus pandemic, as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell pushed for passage as soon as Thursday. U.S. job openings fell in February, suggesting the labor market was losing momentum even before stringent measures to control the novel coronavirus outbreak shuttered businesses, throwing millions out of work. That was underscored by another report showing a sharp decline in the share of small businesses planning to increase employment in March. The reports came in the wake of data last week showing the economy shed 701,000 jobs in March. The unemployment rate shot up 0.9 percentage point, the most since January 1975, to 4.4 percent in March. Investor morale in the euro zone fell to an all-time low in April and the bloc's economy is in deep recession due to the coronavirus, which is "holding the world economy in a stranglehold", a survey showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.38% to settled at 3408 while prices down -355 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 42809 and below same could see a test of 42480 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 43366, a move above could see prices testing 43594.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 42480-43594.
* Silver dropped on profit booking as investors look for more central bank and government stimulus to counter the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
* The Trump administration asked Congress for an additional $250 billion in emergency economic aid for small U.S. businesses reeling from the coronavirus pandemic
* Despite the continued spread of the disease, the number of new infections and fatalities has started to slow down.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -8.24% at 1894 in the face of swelling crude supplies and weak fuel demand due to the coronavirus pandemic, while investors also grew cautious over expectations that the world's biggest producers would quickly agree on output cuts. Thursday's meeting between members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, is widely expected to be more successful than their gathering in early March. Saudi Arabia, OPEC member countries and Russia are likely to agree to cut output, but that accord could be dependent on whether the United States would go along with cuts. The U.S. Department of Energy said that U.S. output is already declining without government action. U.S. crude production, meanwhile, is expected to slump by 470,000 bpd and demand is set to drop by about 1.3 million bpd in 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. The agency also slashed its forecast for U.S. oil demand and said it now expects petroleum and other liquids consumption to plunge 1.33 million bpd to 19.13 million bpd in 2020 compared with its previous forecast for a rise of 60,000 bpd. U.S. crude inventories jumped by 11.9 million barrels to 473.8 million barrels in the week to April 3, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute (API). Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.5% to settled at 20582 while prices down -170 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 1829 and below same could see a test of 1764 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2001, a move above could see prices testing 2108.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 1764-2108.
* Crude oil slumped in the face of swelling crude supplies and weak fuel demand due to the coronavirus pandemic.
* Meeting between members of the OPEC and its allies, including Russia, is widely expected to be more successful than their gathering in early March.
* U.S. crude production, meanwhile, is expected to slump by 470,000 bpd and demand is set to drop by about 1.3 million bpd in 2020, the U.S. EIA said.

 

Natural.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 5.49% at 144.2 on a confirmation of forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand next week. Traders noted that increase came despite lower liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and higher gas production. Even before the coronavirus started to cut global economic growth and energy demand, gas was already trading near its lowest in years as record production and months of mild winter weather enabled utilities to leave more fuel in storage, making shortages and price spikes unlikely. Gas futures for the balance of 2020 and calendar 2021 are trading much higher than the front-month on expectations demand will jump in coming months as the economy snaps back after governments loosen travel and work restrictions once the spread of coronavirus slows. Calendar 2021 has traded at a premium over 2022 for 19 days and over 2025 for 9 days. With cooler weather coming, data provider Refinitiv projected gas demand in the U.S. Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from an average of 93.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 99.8 bcfd next week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projected gas production and demand will drop in 2020 and again in 2021 from record highs in 2019 as steps to slow the spread of the coronavirus cut economic activity and energy prices. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -19.47% to settled at 7275 while prices up 7.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 140.5 and below same could see a test of 136.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 146.2, a move above could see prices testing 148.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 136.9-148.3.
* Natural gas jumped on a confirmation of forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand next week.
* The increase came despite lower liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and higher gas production.
* Prices for the balance of 2020 and calendar 2021 are trading much higher than the front-month on expectations demand will jump in coming months


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.8% at 388.85 as the spreading new coronavirus pandemic continued to dampen demand outlook for the metal. Earlier this week, investors took solace from signs of a slowdown in virus death tolls in hard-hit countries like Italy and Spain. But sentiment took a hit again when Spain reported higher deaths cases for the first time in five days and the U.S. state of New York saw its single-highest daily loss of life. Glencore's Zambian unit Mopani Copper Mines said it would shutter its mines following disruption from the pandemic and low copper prices. The shutdown is the latest disruption to the global mining sector from the COVID-19 pandemic, which has caused lockdowns and travel restrictions around the world. The global world refined copper market showed a 68,000 tonnes surplus in December, compared with a 49,000 tonnes deficit in November, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first 12 months of the year, the market was in a 341,000 tonnes deficit compared with a 391,000 tonnes deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. World refined copper output in December was 2.07 million tonnes , while consumption was 2.01 million tonnes. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.12% to settled at 2602 while prices down -3.15 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 387.4 and below same could see a test of 385.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 390.1, a move above could see prices testing 391.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 385.9-391.3.
* Copper prices retreated as the spreading new coronavirus pandemic continued to dampen demand outlook for the metal.
* Glencore's Zambian unit Mopani Copper Mines said it would shutter its mines following disruption from the pandemic and low copper prices.
* The global world refined copper market showed a 68,000 tonnes surplus in December, compared with a 49,000 tonnes deficit in November.

 

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.5% at 148.6 as investors turned wary on getting too optimistic about the coronavirus while death tolls were still mounting across the globe. Raw material supply shortages at Chinese zinc smelters have eased following recent gains in zinc prices and a cut to concentrate treatment charges, while demand for zinc ingots is recovering as downstream processors in China are moving up a gear. The global zinc market flipped to a surplus of 35,600 tonnes in January from a deficit of 1,200 tonnes in December, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. The December figure was revised from a deficit of 23,100 tonnes in last month's data. The January figure compares to a surplus of 10,000 tonnes in the same month of 2019. Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd , Japan's biggest zinc smelter, said on Wednesday it plans to produce 105,000 tonnes of refined zinc in the first half of financial year 2020-21, a drop of 5.8% from a year-ago period. Toho Zinc Co Ltd , Japan's third-biggest zinc smelter, plans to produce 46,900 tonnes of refined zinc during the April-September half of the 2020/21 financial year, up 11.6% from the same period a year earlier, it said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.64% to settled at 10035 while prices down -0.75 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 147.8 and below same could see a test of 147.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 149.2, a move above could see prices testing 149.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 147.1-149.9.
* Zinc dropped as investors turned wary on getting too optimistic about the coronavirus while death tolls were still mounting across the globe.
* Raw material supply shortages at Chinese zinc smelters have eased following recent gains in zinc prices and a cut to concentrate treatment charges
* The global zinc market flipped to a surplus of 35,600 tonnes in January from a deficit of 1,200 tonnes in December.
 

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.83% at 886 as support seen after Global Ferronickel Holdings Inc., the Philippines' second-biggest nickel ore producer and exporter, said it has decided to suspend mining operations to allay growing concerns over the spread of the coronavirus. The Philippines' Nickel Asia Corp said on Wednesday it has decided to suspend its nickel ore mining and export operations in the southern province of Surigao del Norte in response to the local government's appeal. German industry output rose by 0.3% in February, beating expectations, but the figures reflect the period before the coronavirus significantly affected Europe's largest economy and the Economy Ministry warned of an impending collapse. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe declared a state of emergency to combat coronavirus infections in major population centers. Meanwhile, China lifted travel restrictions in Wuhan — the virus epicenter in mainland China — effective from Wednesday, marking the end of a lockdown that began on January 23. China's foreign exchange reserves came in at $3.0606 trillion at the end of March, official data showed. The amount dipped by $47.3 billion, or 1.5%, from the beginning of 2020, according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). The country's forex market remained generally stable in March, with the dip driven by multiple factors including exchange rates and changes in asset prices. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.24% to settled at 829 while prices up 7.3 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 882.7 and below same could see a test of 879.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 888.6, a move above could see prices testing 891.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Nickel trading range for the day is 879.3-891.1.
* Nickel gains as support seen after Global Ferronickel Holdings Inc., has decided to suspend mining operations to allay growing concerns over the spread of the coronavirus.
* The Philippines' Nickel Asia Corp said on Wednesday it has decided to suspend its nickel ore mining and export operations in the southern province of Surigao del Norte.
* China's foreign exchange reserves came in at $3.0606 trillion at the end of March, official data showed.
 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.6% at 132.75 as ample supply swamped weak demand in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. Beijing’s latest economic stimulus efforts and hopes that the spread of the global coronavirus pandemic may be slowing improved investor sentiment on Tuesday and contributed to gains. The number of Job Openings in the US fell to 6.9 million on the last business day of February, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said in its latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) report. Social inventories of primary aluminium ingots declined sharply over the holiday-extended weekend, as demand improved. Data showed that stocks across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, decreased 41,000 mt from last Thursday April 2 to 1.635 million mt as of Tuesday April 7. Aluminum Corp of China, known as Chalco, will consider carrying out maintenance or even shuttering some aluminium production facilities as well as cutting alumina output because of current low prices. Chalco, China's biggest state-run aluminium producer with 3.79 million tonnes of output last year, is also the world's biggest supplier of alumina, having produced 13.8 million tonnes of the aluminium raw material in 2019. Alumina prices in China initially rose in the aftermath of the coronavirus outbreak as bauxite mine closures and logistical problems left refineries short of feedstock. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.24% to settled at 4081 while prices down -0.8 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 132.4 and below same could see a test of 132 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 133.3, a move above could see prices testing 133.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 132-133.8.
* Aluminium dropped as ample supply swamped weak demand in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak.
* Social inventories of primary aluminium ingots declined sharply over the holiday-extended weekend, as demand improved.
* The number of Job Openings in the US fell to 6.9 million on the last business day of February.
 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.21% at 1177.3 due to low demand and expectation of a rise in acreage this season. There were expectations of higher area under cultivation for crop year 2020-21. Currently, rains will not have any major impact on the crop. However, if it continues to rain post March, then crop prospects in the coming season may improve. The corona virus case is getting prolonged, which has severely affected the demand for agri commodities. The demand for agri commodities like mentha in China has stalled. At the same time, the yield of mentha is expected to be high this time too, due to this, traders are not taking fresh positions in mentha. As prices have fallen sharply, arrivals would decline in the physical market. Mentha crop is likely to rise in 2020-21 on expectations of the sowing area to increase for the new season. In recent years, besides traditional growers of UP, farmers in Madhya Pradesh have also started cultivating mentha crops due to better returns. Market sources expect acreage in the state to increase further. Although prices have fallen substantially, traditional growers of UP would stick with mentha cultivation, as returns from the mint crop is almost double the cost of production. Expectations of a bumper mentha crop for the second consecutive year is likely to keep mentha under pressure. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.34% to settled at 221 while prices down -2.5 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1169.4 and below same could see a test of 1161.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1183.3, a move above could see prices testing 1189.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1161.5-1189.3.
* Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed below 1200 level as demand concerns
* Mentha oil prices dropped due to low demand and expectation of a rise in acreage this season
* There were expectations of higher area under cultivation for crop year 2020-21.
* At present, arrivals have declined as stockists are reluctant to sell their stocks at low prices
 

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.53% at 3810 tracking firmness in overseas prices on signs that drought conditions in South America could erode Brazil's bumper harvest. Chinese soybean processors fear the spread of coronavirus in major exporters could lead to further supply shortages, with some plants in the world's biggest buyer already having to wind back operations. According to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), U.S. January soybean crush fell by 6.02 percent m-o-m to 166.288 million bushels from 176.940 million bushels in January 2020, above market expectation. Crush of soybean in Feb was higher by 7.63 percent y-o-y compared to Feb 2019 figure of 154.498 million bushels. NOPA members have crushed total 166.28 million bushels of Soybeans in February 2020 which is lower from 176.94 million bushels in January 2020. However, it is higher from 154.49 million bushels in February 2019. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said that unknown buyers booked deals for 110,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans. Soybean harvesting in Brazil reached 70.1% of the planted area through Friday, exceeding the historical average of 68.5% for the period. The U.S. soybean crush in February topped forecasts and hit the highest level on record for the shortest month of the year, according to data issued by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA). Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -19.69% to settled at 50945 while prices up 20 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 3778 and below same could see a test of 3745 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3840, a move above could see prices testing 3869.

Trading Ideas:

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 3745-3869.
* Soyabean gained tracking firmness in overseas prices on signs that drought conditions in South America could erode Brazil's bumper harvest.
* China releases 500,000 T of reserve soybeans to COFCO amid supply crunch
* The USDA has projected the country's 2020-21 (Aug-Jul) soybean acrea at 33.8 mln ha, up 10% on yr.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  9 Rupees to 3701 Rupees per 100 kgs.
 

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.52% at 815.2 due to lower edible oil imports. India's edible oil imports fell 32% on year to 941,219 tn in March, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India said. U.S. soyoil stocks at the end of February were projected to slip to 2.270 billion lbs. NOPA crushed 166.288 million bushels in February, the most ever for the year's shortest month. NOPA pegged soyoil stocks at the end of February at 1.922 billion pounds after supplies rose to a 21-month high of 2.013 billion pounds at the end of January. According to SEA, India’s February edible oil imports fell 7.78 percent y-o-y to 10.90 lakh tons from 11.82 lakh tons in Feb 2019. India’s February edible oil stocks at ports and pipelines fell 11.82 percent m-o-m to 15.30 lakh tons from 17.35 lakh tons in January 2020. India's vegoil imports in February fell 10 percent to 1.1 million tonnes from a year ago, a trade body said. The country's imports of palm oil in February stood at 540,470 tonnes, while soyoil imports were 322,448 tonnes, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India said in a statement. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.32% to settled at 30315 while prices up 4.2 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 813 and below same could see a test of 810 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 819, a move above could see prices testing 822.

Trading Ideas:

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 810-822.
* Ref soyoil gained due to lower edible oil imports.
* India's edible oil imports fell 32% on year to 941,219 tn in March, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India said.
* U.S. soyoil stocks at the end of February were projected to slip to 2.270 billion lbs.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 790.75 Rupees per 10 kgs.


Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.58% at 660.5 on supply disruption worries as the world's second-largest producer is likely to reach a decision on reopening plantations that had been closed to contain the spread of the coronavirus. The market was trading higher on speculative bets over an extended supply disruption in Malaysia. The Malaysian Palm Oil Association had estimated March crude palm oil production to increase 11% to 1.43 million tonnes. China's ports and shipping firms are bracing for a deeper and more prolonged supply chain disruption in the world's second-largest palm buyer as the global spread of the virus chokes international demand. Palm oil export data for Malaysia from surveyor SGS Malaysia scheduled for April will be delayed until after the government lifts its restricted movement order aimed at curbing the coronavirus outbreak. In India, vegetable oil demand to fall below the previous year's 23 million tonnes, while the European Union's vegetable oil consumption is also expected to drop as shutdowns forced restaurants to pull down shutters and people to drive less. , exported 2.39 million tonnes of palm oil in January, including refined products, Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) data showed. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.67% to settled at 2957 while prices up 10.3 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 655 and below same could see a test of 649.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 666, a move above could see prices testing 671.5.

Trading Ideas:

* CPO trading range for the day is 649.5-671.5.
* Crude palm oil gained on supply disruption worries as the world's second-largest producer is likely to reach a decision on reopening plantations.
* The Malaysian Palm Oil Association had estimated March crude palm oil production to increase 11% to 1.43 million tonnes.
* The Southern Palm Oil Millers Association has estimated a 4% increase in palm oil production.
* The government's monthly reference price for CPO is set at $653.76 per tonne for April, below a tax threshold of $750 per tonne
 

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.14% at 4089 on positive note due to bargain buying along with expectation of fall in output during the current rabi season. Production is expected to stand at 7.8 million tonnes in the crop year to June 2020, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) told a news conference in Rajasthan, producer of more than half of India’s rapeseed. Amid rising fears among farmers over crop loss by a delay in harvest on account of the ongoing lockdown, Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar said “if the situation is favourable” his government would start purchase of mustard from April 15. Farmers planted rapeseed across 6.95 million hectares (17 million acres) this year, a touch lower than last year’s 6.98 million (17.2 million acres), the SEA said. Crop yields in 2019-20 are estimated at 1,119 kg per hectare, up from 1,075 kg per hectare the previous year. In Haryana, a record procurement of 6.19 lakh metric tonnes mustard was done during marketing season 2019-20. Mustard crop for 2019-20 (Jul-Jun) is pegged at 9.1 mln tn as against 9.3 mln tn produced a year ago, farm ministry data. Farmers across the country have sown mustard across 6.9 mln ha, down 0.4% on year, farm ministry data showed. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.24% to settled at 10110 while prices up 46 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 4058 and below same could see a test of 4027 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4109, a move above could see prices testing 4129.

Trading Ideas:

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 4027-4129.
* Mustard seed settled on positive note due to bargain buying along with expectation of fall in output during the current rabi season.
* Haryana Chief Minister said “if the situation is favourable” his government would start purchase of mustard from April 15.
* Production is expected to stand at 7.8 million tonnes in the crop year to June 2020
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -12.9 Rupees to end at 3999.25 Rupees per 100 kg.
 

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.56% at 5732 amid expectation of new crop supply gaining momentum in coming weeks. However, new turmeric prices recorded an increase in Erode markets. The market saw arrivals of 2,500 bags of new turmeric. For the third day in succession, the arrival of new Mysore-8 variety was high. As per market, the new turmeric crop started arriving in the markets of Nizamabad in Telangana. However, the quality is inferior due to cold weather just before the harvest. The supply is coming from the six-month crop and has a moisture level of 20-30%, against the normal of 7%. Turmeric prices also trading down due to weak demand and new crop in Telangana’s Nizamabad, the benchmark market. A higher crop this year and rising supply of the new crop in Nizamabad, also dampened sentiment. Currently, the new crop is arriving only in Nizamabad, and by mid-March supply will start in all other producing centres. Telangana farm department’s second advanced estimates sees turmeric production to be at 305000 tonnes compared to 294000 tonnes produced previous year. Govt. pegs 2019-20 turmeric output at 913000 tonnes. Turmeric exports from India rose one per cent to 67500 during the Apr-Sep period according to the data released by the Spices Board. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -14.66% to settled at 2300 while prices down -32 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 5682 and below same could see a test of 5632 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5810, a move above could see prices testing 5888.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 5632-5888.
* Turmeric prices dropped amid expectation of new crop supply gaining momentum in coming weeks.
* The new turmeric crop started arriving in the markets of Nizamabad in Telangana, however, the quality is inferior
* The supply is coming from the six-month crop and has a moisture level of 20-30%, against the normal of 7%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5587.5 Rupees gained 16.05 Rupees.
 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.6% at 14305 on short covering after prices dropped a forecast of a bigger crop this season. In recent session prices remained under pressure on prospects of higher crop due to a sharp rise in acreage in Gujarat and Rajasthan and favourable weather conditions across growing regions has brightened crop prospects. In the 2019-20 rabi season, Jeera acreage in Gujarat, 2020 is reported at 4.88 lakh hectares, higher by 40% from 3.47 lakh hectares a year ago. The recent sharp fall in the spice commodity is because of the coronavirus outbreak in China, which is the largest buyer of the spice commodity from India. China is expected to buy about 50,000 tonnes this year on account of increased consumption. This year, the trade was excited because of our attractive prices and hoped that the Chinese demand would increase. The coronavirus definitely has caused a dent in demand. Usually, the Chinese visit personally to choose and verify the quality of their order. Notably, favourable climatic conditions and improved water availability following good monsoon rains had brightened the prospects for jeera. Farmers in the top growing States of Rajasthan and Gujarat expected about 25-30 per cent higher yield leading to a larger crop this year. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.67% to settled at 1035 while prices up 85 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14140 and below same could see a test of 13975 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14455, a move above could see prices testing 14605.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13975-14605.
* Jeera gained on short covering after prices dropped amid a forecast of a bigger crop this season
* In the 2019-20 rabi season, Jeera acreage in Gujarat, 2020 is reported at 4.88 lakh hectares, higher by 40% from 3.47 lakh hectares a year ago
* Farmers in the top growing States of Rajasthan and Gujarat expected about 25-30 per cent higher yield leading to a larger crop this year.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 105.55 Rupees to end at 13655.55 Rupees per 100 kg.
 

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.09% at 16670 tracking overseas prices on the back of firmer oil prices and a slight uptick in export data by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Weekly export sales report from the USDA showed net sales of upland cotton totaled 147,500 running bales for 2019/2020 in the week ended March 26, down 47% from the previous week, while exports of 400,800 RB were up 4% from the previous week. The Centre will spend ₹1,061 crore to reimburse the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) and its sub-agent in Maharashtra for procuring cotton at the minimum support price in that State since 2014. The agriculture department has started creating awareness among the farmers about pink bollworm attack on cotton crops. According to a spokesman of agriculture department, pink bollworm goes in winter nap during November and December and its eggs remain present on cotton seeds, branches and dried leafs in farms and ginning factories. The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has stated that cotton procurement at MSP will continue across markets. However, farmers are still holding onto their crops seeking better prices and also due to the directives issued by the district collectors to avoid crowds. Meanwhile, the United States Department of Agriculture reported net sales of 214,600 running bales (RB) for 2019/2020, which included 39,600 RB sales to China. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.43% to settled at 5777 while prices up 180 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 16500 and below same could see a test of 16340 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 16770, a move above could see prices testing 16880.

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 16340-16880.
* Cotton gained tracking overseas prices on the back of firmer oil prices and a slight uptick in export data by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
* The agriculture department has started creating awareness among the farmers about pink bollworm attack on cotton crops.
* Weekly export sales report from the USDA showed net sales of upland cotton totaled 147,500 running bales for 2019/2020
* Corona virus is affecting the global trade and world economies

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 4115 after update in Indore Chana output may drop by 15% this rabi season. Besides, demand started increasing due to increasing fear of spreading Covid-19. Supreme Court of India next hearing regarding case of pulses import will be on 4th April-2020.It seems that Jaipur High Court would not hear this case on 6th April as it has moved now to Supreme Court of India. As per latest report by The Canadian Grain Commission Canada has exported 1,382,600 MT peas in ongoing MY so far till Jan-2020.It is up by 45% from last year till Jan 2019.In Jan alone, total 1,34 300 MT has been exported. Canada has exported 1,036,800 MT last year tillJanuary-2019. National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India has bought 7,475 tn of chana from farmers in Andhra Pradesh, an official with the agency said. The crop is from the 2019-20 (Jul-Jun) kharif season. The government has pegged 2019-20 chana crop at 11.2 mln tn compared with 9.9 mln tn harvested last year in second advance estimates. Chana output in the country is expected to be over 11 mln tn in 2019-20 (Jul-Jun) against 10.1 mln tn last year, primarily due to higher area under the crop and a rise in yield, a senior official with the farm ministry said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.39% to settled at 8170 while prices up 14 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4087 and below same could see a test of 4059 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4143, a move above could see prices testing 4171.

Trading Ideas:

* Chana trading range for the day is 4059-4171.
* Chana prices rallied after update in Indore Chana output may drop by 15% this rabi season
* NAFED has bought 7,475 tn of chana from farmers in Andhra Pradesh, an official with the agency said.
* As per latest report by The Canadian Grain Commission Canada has exported 1,382,600 MT peas in ongoing MY so far till Jan-2020
* In Delhi spot market, chana remains unchanged at by 0 Rupees to end at 4070 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

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