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Religare Securities Limited

Published on 18/07/2019 9:50:26 AM

Nifty Outlook

The Indian equity markets ended on a positive note with the benchmark index Nifty closing higher by 25 points or 0.2% at 11,688 levels. The broader markets underperformed the benchmark with BSE Midcap and BSE Smallcap ending lower by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. The sectoral indices witnessed mixed trend. While Consumer Durables, Oil and Gas and Auto ended with losses of around 0.4-1%, the other indices including FMCG, IT and Banking ended with healthy gains.

We expect the markets to remain choppy in the near term in the backdrop of weak domestic sentiments given the on-going economic slowdown. The monsoon has shown considerable improvement over the past 1-2 weeks which is positive for Indian economy. However, the progress of monsoon would be actively tracked by traders and investors. Further, earnings announcement by companies is likely to lead to stock specific volatility. On the global front, on-going geopolitical tensions between US-Iran could have a bearing on Indian markets as crude price have inched higher in the recent past and is likely to keep the market participants on edge.

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Religare Securities Limited

Published on 17/07/2019 10:19:29 AM

Nifty Outlook

The Indian benchmark indices registered healthy gains of 0.6% in yesterday’s session with Nifty ending 74 points higher at 11,663 levels. The broader markets performed largely in-line with the benchmark with indices closing with decent gains. Amongst the sectoral indices, except IT which ended with minor losses, all the other indices ended with gains wherein Oil & Gas, Realty and Capital Goods were top gainers.

We expect the markets to remain choppy in the near term in the backdrop of weak domestic sentiments given the on-going economic slowdown. The monsoon has shown considerable improvement over the past 1-2 weeks which is positive for Indian economy. However, the progress of monsoon would be actively tracked by traders and investors. Further, earnings announcement by companies is likely to lead to stock specific volatility. On the global front, on-going geopolitical tensions between US-Iran could have a bearing on Indian markets as crude price have inched higher in the recent past and is likely to keep the market participants on edge

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Religare Securities Limited

Published on 16/07/2019 10:26:52 AM

Nifty Outlook

Nifty settled marginally higher amid volatility, extending its consolidation phase after the recent slide. It opened with an uptick in early trade, thanks to strong up move in Infosys post results however mixed macro-economic data and pressure in the banking space gradually pushed the index lower. Rebound in select index majors in the latter half helped the benchmark to settle with modest gains.

With no major event ahead, we feel earnings, progress of monsoon and global cues would dictate the trend ahead. We reiterate our bearish view on Nifty and suggest continuing with “sell on rise” approach. Stocks, on the other hand, may continue to witness volatile swings across the board thus we suggest keeping extra caution in stock selection and trade management. On sectoral front, banking and FMCG could lead the fall.

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Religare Securities Limited

Published on 12/07/2019 9:44:52 AM

Nifty Outlook

The Indian markets staged a smart recovery in today’s session aided by supportive global cues on hopes of a rate cut by Fed in its July meet. The Nifty index opened in the green and touched a high of 11,599 before closing higher by 84 points at 11,583. Amongst the broader market indices, ‘BSE Midcap’ and ‘BSE Smallcap’ too ended higher by 0.6% and 0.4% respectively. Amongst the sectoral indices, healthy buying was seen in almost all the sectors with Realty, Metal and Auto gaining highest in the range of 1.4-1.8%.

We expect the markets to remain choppy in the near term in the backdrop of weak domestic cues. Given the economic slowdown we expect the earnings season to be tepid which will lead to stock specific volatility. Further, CPI inflation and IIP data (scheduled tomorrow) will provide direction to the markets. On the global front, on-going geo-political issues between US and Iran as well as crude oil prices and currency movement will keep the market participants on edge. 

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Religare Securities Limited

Published on 11/07/2019 10:52:55 AM

Nifty Outlook

The Indian markets ended on a negative note despite firm global cues as fresh tariff threats from US caused volatility. After opening higher, Nifty index soon erased the gains and closed lower at 11,499 (down 57 points). Amongst the broader market indices, ‘BSE Midcap’ and ‘BSE Smallcap’ too ended lower by 0.8% each. Amongst the sectoral indices Realty, Capital Goods, Metal and Auto were the biggest losers in the range of 1.1-1.7%.

We expect the markets to remain choppy in the near term in the backdrop of weak domestic as well as global cues. Given the economic slowdown we expect the earnings season to be tepid which will lead to stock specific volatility. On the global front, on-going geo-political issues between US and Iran, US-China trade war as well as crude oil prices and currency movement will keep the market participants on edge.

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Religare Securities Limited

Published on 10/07/2019 9:44:07 AM

Nifty Outlook

The Indian equity indices halted its downward trend on Tuesday despite muted global cues. After a weak start, Nifty index inched upwards in the latter half and finally closed on a flat note at 11,556 (down 3 points). Amongst the broader market indices, ‘BSE Midcap’ outperformed the benchmark and ended higher by 0.6%, while ‘BSE Smallcap’ ended marginally positive. Amongst the sectoral indices heavy selling was witnessed in consumer durables (down 6.8%) as Titan plunged 12.4% on account of muted Q1FY20 commentary. On the other hand, Realty, Oil& Gas and Capital Goods recovered and gained in the range of 1.1-2.8%.

We continue to maintain our cautious stance on the Indian markets as the focus will now shift to Q1FY20 earnings. The market seems to be building in a weak quarterly performance and hence stock specific volatility is likely to remain high. On the global front, on-going geo-political issues between US and Iran, crude oil prices and currency movement will induce volatility in the markets.

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Religare Securities Limited

Published on 9/07/2019 10:13:18 AM

Nifty Outlook

Markets plunged sharply lower and lost over two percent, in continuation to the Friday’s decline. After the gap down start, the benchmark index gradually inched lower as the day progressed. List of factors viz. disappointment from the Union Budget, weak progress of monsoon and feeble global cues dampened the sentiment and triggered sell-off across the board.

The market tone is clearly negative and Nifty could inch further lower and test 11,400 ahead. Earlier, it was only the broader indices which were reeling under pressure and now the benchmark index has also joined in. With the beginning of the earnings season, participants will be closely eyeing the result of IT major, TCS on Tuesday i.e. July 9. We advise maintaining “sell on rise” approach and preferring hedged positions. 

 

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Religare Securities Limited

Published on 8/07/2019 10:24:41 AM

Nifty Outlook

Markets ended sharply lower on the Union Budget day and that engulfed gains of last five sessions. The pace of decline was gradual in the first half as participants were in the cautious mood however it slipped strongly in latter half. Perhaps the ambitious fiscal deficit target didn’t go well with the markets as it would difficult to meet that target, considering the challenging scenario.

We might see the overhang of the Union budget on Monday as well and thus suggest keeping extra caution. The sharp plunge in the index indicates more pain ahead and decline below 11,800 in Nifty would trigger further fall.

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