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Published on 09-10-2025 10:37 am

Technical Outlook:

*  Bank Nifty started the day on a firm note, however, it witnessed profit booking in the vicinity of 50% retracement of the previous session decline and oscillated ~1400 points during the session. As a result, the daily price action formed bear candle with wicks on both ends, indicating profit booking at higher levels.

*  Key point to highlight is that, index has breached below its prior session’s low after sixth consecutivee session of gains, indicating a short-term breather. However, the index continues to trade above key moving average and its previous gap support (55700), suggesting that the current decline is a healthy consolidation within an ongoing uptrend. As index likely to oscillate within the 55600-56800 band in the near term. A decisive breakout above 56800 would confirm the continuation of the uptrend, paving the way for a retest of its all-time high 57600. Therefore, any dip from current levels should be seen as a buying opportunity, with immediate support placed near 54,600, representing the 80% retracement of the ongoing up move (54,226-56,164).

*  Structurally, index has recovered its entire eight-day decline within the last four consecutive session of gains, indicating a sharp turnaround and faster pace of retracement, which bodes well for a sustained upward momentum in the coming session.

*  The PSU Bank Index has extended its breather and settle down 0.80%. As a result, the daily price action formed a bear candle, indicating period of consolidation phase in coming session. Follow through strength above recent swing high (7651) would help index to extend its current up move to challenge its all time high 8050. On the downside, initial support is placed at 7,181, which aligns with the 50% retracement of the latest upswing (6,730–7,651)

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Published on 09-10-2025 10:36 am

Nifty Bank : 56018

Technical Outlook

Day that was:

Bank Nifty breaks its sixth day winning streak and closed on negative note and settled at 56,018 down 0.39%. The Nifty private Bank index has mirrored the benchmark, ending the day at 27,409 down 0.32%.

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Published on 09-10-2025 10:35 am

Key Monitorable:

*  a) Development on tariff negotiations

*  b) Beginning of Q2FY26 earning season

*  c) Quarterly business updates

*  d) Brent crude decline below 4 months low resulted into revers flag breakdown, indicating continuation of corrective bias. Falling crude oil prices bodes well for domestic market.

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Published on 09-10-2025 10:35 am

Technical Outlook:

*  Nifty began the day on a positive note; however, it witnessed profit booking in the vicinity of 80% retracement of the previous sessions range. As a result, the daily price action formed small bear candle with long upper wick indicating, profit booking at higher levels.

*  Key point to highlight is that, Nifty failed to surpass 25200 level and witnessed negative market breadth which resulted in profit booking at higher levels as it closed below previous session low after 600 points of upmove, indicating pause in up move. Going ahead, index need to decisively close above 25200 for a meaningful pullback to materialize, else continuation of consolidation in 25200-24700 zone amid stock specific action can be expected ahead of Q2FY26 earning season. Strong support is placed at 24700 which is 80% retracement of the current upmove.

*  Structurally, Nifty has rallied 18% off April low, within which intermediate corrections arrested within 3-5% range. Meanwhile, timewise, over past three decades, there have been 12 instances wherein index has staged a strong rebound after consecutive 8 sessions negative close, garnering 7% rolling return in a month. In current scenario, with 3.5% correction already in place along with 8 consecutive negative close, we expect index to maintain the same rhythm and stage a strong rebound. Hence focus should be on accumulating quality stocks with strong earnings.

*  Further, as per seasonality, October despite being a volatile month, has been one of the best month for markets in last 12 years. Nifty has given positive returns on 9 out of 12 occasions. The average return for Nifty for October in last 12 years was >3%.

*  On the market breadth front the % of stocks above 50 days SMA and 200 days SMA (Nifty 500 Universe) has not witnessed significant traction as currently it is at 46% and 59% compared to past two weeks reading of 63% and 70%. Hence, we believe continuation of consolidation in the range of 25200-24700 zone

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Published on 09-10-2025 10:35 am

Nifty :25046

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

Equity benchmark snapped four days gain tracking muted global cues. Nifty settled at 25046 down 0.25%. Market breadth was in favor of declines, with an A/D ratio of 1:1.5 where broader markets underperformed the benchmark. Nifty midcap and small cap relatively closed on a negative note down 0.73% and 0.52% respectively. Sectorally, barring IT and Consumer Durables all indices closed in red. Where, Realty, Auto and Oil & Gas underperformed.

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