Below is the Views On Crude oil surge and impact on rupee stock market by Mr.Karan Shah, DGM- Commodity & Currency Research, Indiabulls Ventures Ltd.
Oil prices witnessed its biggest intra-day percentage gain since the start of the Gulf War in 1991, after an attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities shut in the equivalent of 5% of global supply. The commodity which was struggling to hold grounds despite the OPEC production cut also affected by the slowing global economy amid the trade tensions between US & China traded higher by over 9% today. The attack not only wiped out a portion of supply from the global markets but also raises Global tensions which may now keep the prices inflated. Tensions rose as Donald Trump said on Sunday the US was "locked and loaded" for a potential response to the attack on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities. Looking at the new emerging factors a buy on dip strategy should be appropriate for the near term.
The above event may act negatively for India which imports the majority of the commodity to meet its demand. Crude contributes a major chunk to India's import bill. Higher crude prices may result in rupee depreciation against the dollar. We expect spot USDINR to trade higher within a range of 70.8-71.9 for the immediate near term.
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