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Published on 24/06/2019 11:23:26 AM | Source: HDFC Securities Ltd

RUPEE EXPECTED TO TRADE IN NARROW RANGE  - HDFC Securities

Posted in Currency Report| #HDFC Securities #Currency Tips

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RUPEE EXPECTED TO TRADE IN NARROW RANGE  - HDFC Securities

 

The rupee dived 14 paise to close at 69.58 against the US dollar, pressured by firming crude oil prices amid intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region. A broad sell-off in the domestic equity markets also kept sentiment at a low ebb.

In near-term, rupee is having resistance around 69.03 and support at 70.01, the 100 days simple moving average. Rupee is trading in to consolidation phase.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have ratcheted up following attacks on two oil tankers and shooting down of a US surveillance drone.

Safe-haven assets like the yen rose after reports said US President Donald Trump had approved military strikes against Iran, but later decided against it.

On 28th June, India’s May month fiscal deficit and Eight core industrial activity data will be released.

 

U.S. Economic Data

Some key U.S. economic reports this week include the release of durable goods data on Wednesday along with figures on international trade.

Investors will also get an update on the health of the U.S. housing market from reports on pending home sales, new home sales and the house price index.

The week will also bring the final reading on first-quarter gross domestic product, with the consensus forecast for an unrevised reading of 3.1%.

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

USDINR July Futures(69.92) : Consolidation Continues

Pair is consolidating in the range of 70.36 to 69.50 for last one 1 month

Resistance is seen at 70.36, above which breakout would confirm

Support is seen at 69.50, below which breakdown would be confirmed

Pair is currently hovering around its 20 and 50 days EMA

20 and 50 EMA have also converged, indicating narrow range for the pair in near futures

Indicators and oscillators have also not showing any clear cut direction

We advise traders to wait for the clarity to emerge and then take action. Trigger points are 69.50 and 70.36.

 

EURINR July Futures(79.25): Consolidation Continues

Pair has formed higher bottom at 78.43 on the daily charts

Any level above 79.45 would also confirm higher top.

Short term indicators and oscillators have been showing sign of bullishness

Pair is trading above 20 and 50 DMA

Primary trend has been bearish with lower tops and lower bottoms

We advise traders to wait for the clarity to emerge and then take action. Trigger points are 79.95 and 77.65.

 

GBPINR July Futures(88.60): Sell below 87.80, SL 89, tgt 85

Primary trend has been bearish with lower tops and lower bottoms

Pair is trading below all important moving averages

For last 5 week’s pair has been consolidating in the narrow range

Any level below 87.80 would resume the downtrend

We advise selling GBPINR July Fut below 87.80, for the target of 85, keeping a stoploss at 89

 

JPYINR July Futures(65.14): Buy at CMP, Tgt 66.16, SL 64.57

Primary trend has been bullish with higher tops and higher bottoms

Pair is trading above 20, 50 and 200 DMA.

Cup and handle breakout is seen on the daily charts

Indicators and Oscillators have been showing strength in the up trend

We advise going long in July fut at CMP, for the target of 66.16, keeping stoploss at 64.57

 

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HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475

 

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