Last week rupee depreciated by 0.36 percent as dollar index strengthened by 1.16 percent. In the recent RBI meeting the decision came in line with market expectations but the degree of hawkishness in the policy provided a breather to the market. Inflation touched a 17 month high in Dec’17 at 5.21. Inflation is likely to taper off in the second half of FY19 and provide a stable working environment according to MPC. Hence RBI decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 6%. Also, Indian equity market remained negative during the week with a decline of around 3.14 percent in Nifty Index.
Unemployment claims for Jan’18 came in at 221,000 as compared to market expectations of 232,000. The US government reopened post a brief shutdown regarding the passage of a spending on military and non-defence activities that would increase the budget by $300 billion for the next two years. Also, US trade deficit widens to $53.1 billion in Dec’17.
USDINR is expected to appreciate in the coming session
EURUSD depreciated by 1.56 percent while EURINR appreciated by 1.2 percent during the same time frame. German industrial production comes in line with market estimates at -0.6% for Jan’18. Euro services PMI comes in at 58 for Jan’18 against market expectations of 57.6. Also, German parties go ahead with grand coalition but Angela Merkel’s party had to make some tough decisions in order to make the coalition deal which was losing the finance ministry to the SPD.
EURINR is expected to appreciate in the coming session
GBP depreciated against the US dollar by 1.13 percent last week while GBPINR appreciated by 0.76 percent during the same time period.
In the recent BOE meeting the committee decided to keep the interest rates unchanged at 0.5% but they saw the need for faster rate hike as they saw macro-economic conditions improving. However, services PMI from UK came lower than market expectations 53 against 54.1 in Jan’18.
GBPINR is expected to appreciate in the coming session
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