Published on 17/05/2017 11:31:57 AM | Source: Kedia Commodity Ltd

Soyabean trading range for the day is 2733-2931 - Kedia Commodity

Posted in Commodities Reports | #Kedia Commodity Ltd #Commodity Tips


Gold

Gold on MCX settled up 0.36% at 28094 as the U.S. dollar slid to the lowest level since November amid signs of slowing economic activity in the U.S. and following another controversy from President Donald Trump. The yellow metal notched a fourth-straight winning session on Monday after rising to its highest since May 4 at $1,237.40, following the release of underwhelming U.S. manufacturing data. Data showed that the number of housing starts and building permits issued in the U.S. unexpectedly declined in April.

The U.S. Commerce Department said that housing starts decreased by 2.6% from the month before to hit 1.172 million units last month. Meanwhile, the number of building permits issued fell 2.5% to a seasonally adjusted 1.229 million units last month from 1.260 million the month before. The disappointing data is the latest in a string of weaker than expected U.S. economic reports which saw investors temper expectations for more rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Markets are pricing in around a 70% chance of a hike at the Fed's June meeting, according to Fed Rate Monitor Tool, down from more than 80% in previous week. The news added to concerns that Trump will be unable to successfully push through his economic stimulus program in the face of mounting controversies.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.01% to settled at 6119 while prices up 102 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 28031 and below same could see a test of 27968 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 28146, a move above could see prices testing 28198.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 27968-28198.

* Gold gained as the U.S. dollar slid amid signs of slowing economic activity in the U.S. and following another controversy from President Donald Trump.

* The U.S. economy is forecast to expand at a 4.1-percent annualized pace in the second quarter following the release of April figures on housing starts and industrial output.

* Data showed that the number of housing starts and building permits issued in the U.S. unexpectedly declined in April.

 

Silver

Silver on MCX settled up 0.63% at 38744 as political troubles in the United States dented the dollar while a more upbeat scenario in Europe lifted the euro. The dollar index slipped to the weakest in more than six months after two U.S. officials said President Donald Trump disclosed highly classified information to Russia's foreign minister about a planned Islamic State operation. Investors regarded Trump's difficulties as another obstacle to planned U.S. tax cuts and infrastructure spending which had boosted the dollar in the months following the November election.

At the same time, markets were cheered about the outlook for Europe after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and new French President Emmanuel Macron agreed to draw up a roadmap to deepen European Union integration, while economic growth data and German investor morale were strong. The U.S. economy is forecast to expand at a 4.1-percent annualized pace in the second quarter following the release of April figures on housing starts and industrial output, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDP Now forecast model showed. U.S. manufacturing production recorded its biggest increase in more than three years in April, bolstering the view that economic growth picked up early in the second quarter despite a surprise decline in homebuilding.

Trump asked then-FBI Director James Comey to end the agency's investigation into ties between former White House national security adviser Michael Flynn and Russia, according to a source who has seen a memo written by Comey. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.21% to settled at 19606 while prices up 242 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 38625 and below same could see a test of 38505 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 38820, a move above could see prices testing 38895.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 38505-38895.

* Silver gains as signs of slowing economic activity in the U.S. saw investors temper expectations for more rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

* The number of building permits issued fell 2.5% to a seasonally adjusted 1.229 million units last month from 1.260 million the month before.

* Holdings at ishares silver trust gained by 0.42% i.e. 44.15 tonnes to 10649.70 tonnes from 10605.55 tonnes.

 

Crudeoil

Crudeoil on MCX settled down -0.83% at 3123 as investors awaited a fresh weekly batch of U.S inventory data amid growing support from energy ministers for prolonged supply cuts to March 2018. U.S. crude inventories rose 882,000 barrels at the end of last week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday, compared to a decline of 2.3 million barrels seen and last week's figure that showed a 5.789 million barrels decline. The API estimates are followed by official figures from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

Distillate stocks gained 1.79 million barrels and gasoline supplies fell 1.78 million barrels. Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, fell by 540,000 barrels. Analysts expected a 1.050 million barrels decline in distillates and an 731,000 barrels dip in gasoline supplies. Saudi Arabia and Russia said they agreed on the need for 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) crude supply cut to be extended for nine months, until the end of March 2018. Kuwait's oil minister, Essam al-Marzouq, said he supported the Saudi/Russian initiative.

Other OPEC states are also expected to back the move at a meeting in Vienna on May 25. The global oil market is rebalancing and the pace at which supply and demand are falling into line is picking up, even if inventories still fail to reflect the impact of OPEC supply cuts, the International Energy Agency said. In its monthly report, the IEA kept its global demand growth forecast for 2017 unchanged at 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd), because of slowdowns in previously robust consumer countries such as the United States, Germany and Turkey. Technically now Crudeoil is getting support at 3104 and below same could see a test of 3085 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3153, a move above could see prices testing 3183.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 3085-3183.

* Crude oil dropped as investors awaited a fresh weekly batch of U.S inventory data amid growing support from energy ministers for prolonged supply cuts to March 2018.

* Energy ministers from Saudi Arabia and Russia said they would support an extension of the supply-cut agreement into March 2018.

* U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 882,000 barrels to 523.4 million, compared with expectations for a decrease of 2.4 million barrels, API data showed.

 

Naturalgas

Naturalgas on MCX settled down -4.05% at 206.30 as decline seen appears as sparked by updated weather forecasts that indicate mild weather across the mid-west, a development that may reduce the demand for natural gas. However, the overall weather forecast for the US is conducive to slightly stronger than normal natural gas use through the coming week, according to natgasweather.com. Thus, the prospects for continues weakness in prices over the near term appears questionable.

The central and southern US will continue to see highs of 80s to near 90°F, with warming also now to push into the eastern US, including major East Coast cities. The West will be cooler than normal as fresh weather systems arrive off the Pacific. Cooling is expected to push into the central US late in the week, holding through the weekend, including into Texas. Cooling is expected to reach the east-central US next week, thereby keeping slightly stronger than normal nat gas use ongoing.

Meanwhile, market participants looked ahead to weekly storage data due on Thursday, which is expected to show a build in a range between 55 and 63bcf in the week ended May 12. That compares with a gain of 45bcf in the preceding week, an increase of 73 billion a year earlier and a five-year average rise of 87bcf. Total natural gas in storage currently stands at 2.301 trillion cubic feet, according to the US EIA, 13.9% lower than levels at this time a year ago but 12.0% above the five-year average for this time of year. Technically market is getting support at 202.8 and below same could see a test of 199.3 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 212.9, a move above could see prices testing 219.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 199.3-219.5.

* Natural gas dropped 4% after the latest US weather model called for mild temperatures over the next two weeks.

* Updated weather forecasts that indicate mild weather across the mid-west, a development that may reduce the demand for natural gas.

* Weather forecast for the US is conducive to slightly stronger than normal natural gas use through the coming week.

 

Copper

Copper on MCX settled up 0.25% at 362.45 recovering from lows on short covering after prices dropped amid worries about China's slowing economic growth and tighter capital markets in China. China's latest moves to curb shadow banking and risky investment dented the growth outlook in the world's top metals consumer. China's banking regulator tightened disclosure rules on lenders' wealth management products.

Separately, the China Banking Regulatory Commission unveiled plans to publish a flurry of regulations later this year to control financial risks. China's growth is set for its weakest patch since the global financial crisis as authorities pull back on stimulus. After clocking 6.9 percent in the first quarter thanks to spending on infrastructure and a property boom that policymakers want to rein in, analysts surveyed by Reuters reckon 2017 economic growth will just about make Beijing's target of 6.5 percent as it slows over the rest of the year.

China accounts for nearly half the world's demand for copper, widely used in construction and infrastructure. China’s refined copper cathode output is expected to slow further in 2017. China's copper smelting and refining capacity will increase to 7.70 million tonnes and 11.40 million tonnes, respectively, in 2017.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.03% to settled at 17185 while prices up 0.9 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 360 and below same could see a test of 357.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 364, a move above could see prices testing 365.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 357.5-365.5.

* Copper recovered from lows on short covering after prices dropped amid worries about China's slowing economic growth and tighter capital markets in China.

* China's growth took a step back in April after a surprisingly strong start to the year.

* The chief executive of Freeport-McMoRan said demand for copper remains strong, with Europe and North America showing steady improvement.

 

Zinc

Zinc on MCX settled down -1% at 163.05 as China's latest moves to curb shadow banking and risky investment dented the growth outlook in China. After clocking 6.9 percent in the first quarter thanks to spending on infrastructure and a property boom that policymakers want to rein in, analysts surveyed by Reuters reckon 2017 economic growth will just about make Beijing's target of 6.5 percent as it slows over the rest of the year. China's growth is set for its weakest patch since the global financial crisis as authorities pull back on stimulus.

China's banking regulator tightened disclosure rules on lenders' wealth management products. Separately, the China Banking Regulatory Commission unveiled plans to publish a flurry of regulations later this year to control financial risks. Continuous inflows of imported zinc arrived in Shanghai in the week, consisting of Spanish and Indian brands. Arriving shipments are expected to be nearly 10,000 tonnes. Inflows of imported zinc in the market weighed down spot premiums of domestic brands in Shanghai market.

Spot premiums of domestic zinc narrowed from 300 yuan per tonne from late April to 250 yuan per tonne. China’s refined zinc production fell to 413,000 tonnes in April 2017, a drop of 3.95% month-on-month and 5.92% year-on-year. Total refined zinc output in the first four months of the year was 1.711 million tonnes, a fall of 1.84% on a yearly basis. Lower zinc prices and domestic zinc concentrate TCs ate into profit at domestic zinc smelters.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.38% to settled at 3751, now Zinc is getting support at 161.6 and below same could see a test of 160.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 164.3, a move above could see prices testing 165.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 160.1-165.5.

* Zinc dropped as China's latest moves to curb shadow banking and risky investment dented the growth outlook in China.

* China's growth is set for its weakest patch since the global financial crisis as authorities pull back on the stimulus.

*  China's property resale market cooled a notch in April due to intensified government curbs.

 

Nickel

Nickel on MCX settled down -0.26% at 585.60 as pressure seen after China's latest moves to curb shadow banking and risky investment dented the growth outlook in the world's top metals consumer. Late on Monday, China's banking regulator tightened disclosure rules on lenders' WMPs. Separately, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) unveiled plans to publish a flurry of regulations later this year to control financial risks.

LME Nickel prices dropped 1.6 percent to $9,085 a tonne on the speculation that China's growth is set for its weakest patch since the global financial crisis as authorities pull back on the stimulus that helped the economy get off to an unexpectedly strong start this year, and keep funds tight to deter risky lending. Meanwhile Steelmaking ingredients zinc and nickel were pressured by recent falls in Shanghai rebar steel, which has been hit by concerns over plentiful supply and slow demand growth in China.

With the focus on the supply side, not much attention is being paid to other fundamentals. Right now a pullback in the US dollar is lending support to most dollar-denominated commodities. But, base metals have been somewhat immune even as the ICE US Dollar Index fell to a six-month low. Nickel in particular is shrugging off the greenback’s decline with the focus remaining on the Philippines. According to the news agency Philippine nickel miners are looking for a strong rebound in nickel production this year with newly appointed Environment Secretary Roy A.

Cimatu signaling openness to allow shuttered mines to resume operations after a review. Now technically market is getting support at 580.2 and below same could see a test of 574.8 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 591, a move above could see prices testing 596.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Nickel trading range for the day is 574.8-596.4.

* Nickel prices dropped as concern seen with China's growth which took a step back in April after a surprisingly strong start to the year

* Philippine nickel miners are looking for a strong rebound in nickel production this year with newly appointed Environment Secretary.

* China's growth is set for its weakest patch since the global financial crisis as authorities pull back on the stimulus

 

Aluminium

Aluminium on MCX settled up 0.98% at 123.45 as support seen after the update that China’s plans to tackle overcapacity in aluminium market act as positive sentiments for aluminium prices. In aluminium, it’s clear that the new policies will have a positive impact in the medium and long term and we expect environmental permits to become harder to obtain, which will slow new capacity and support the prices.

Meanwhile, weaker than expected economic data poured cold water on expectations that U.S. economic growth would rebound in the second quarter of the year, after housing data fell below expectations. The Commerce Department said Tuesday housing starts dropped 2.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.17 million units, the lowest level in five months, and below expectations for a 3.7% rise.

The Federal Reserve said Tuesday that U.S. industrial production at factories, mines and utilities rose 1% in April from March, well above expectations for 0.4% increase. The ongoing political turmoil in Washington as well as the recent batch of softer economic data has dampened expectations that the Fed will opt for an aggressive rate hike path.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 19.11% to settled at 2487 while prices up 1.2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 122.2 and below same could see a test of 121 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 124.1, a move above could see prices testing 124.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 121-124.8.

* Aluminium prices gained as support seen after Chinese government is taking action around pollution and the environment.

* China’s plans to tackle overcapacity in aluminium market act as a positive sentiments for aluminium prices.

* China's war on smog has helped limit aluminium supply this year, boosting prices.

 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil on MCX settled down by -0.44% at 954.4 amid reports that carryover stocks are huge against the current consumption level. As per sources, local demand is moderate from both the local industries as well as stockists. The arrivals have slightly increased in the major spot markets of Uttar Pradesh, to meet the existing demand for the produce. Also in recent years the production and consumption of synthetic mentha has increased which has impacted the demand of natural mentha.

As on now stock positions of Mentha in MCX accredited warehouses were around 4499 drums, while in process were 24 drums, both are 24 drums more in comparison to the previous day. Short term outlook remain weak as first of all prices are trading below 980 level mark while the huge carryover stock of mentha oil and also prices trading with weakness leading to a glut with synthetic mint oil garnering larger share of the market.

Sentimental weakness will continious for mentha demand as the key consumption sector (Tobacco products) is witnesing slow down in demand. Prices had been under pressure since March after Yogi Adityanath, the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, has banned paan chewing and gutka or tobacco in all government offices in the state. Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1072.00 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.3.20/-

.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.41% to settled at 1402 while prices down -4.2 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 947.6 and below same could see a test of 940.8 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 960.6, a move above could see prices testing 966.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Menthaoil trading range for the day is 940.8-966.8.

* Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1072.00 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.3.20/-.

* Mentha oil dropped amid reports that carryover stocks are huge against the current consumption level.

* As per sources, local demand is moderate from both the local industries as well as stockists.

* Stock positions of Mentha in MCX accredited warehouses were around 4499 drums, while in process were 24 drums.

 

Soyabean

Soyabean on NCDEX settled down by -2.06% at 2810 on account of lower demand and arrivals in local mandis spurted as marginal, as 60 percent of soybean mills in Madhya Pradesh reported to have shut down because of subdued demand for soymeal and lower prices of soyoil. Soybean arrivals in local mandis spurted as marginal fall in plant delivery rate boosted buying activity and as farmers offloading stocks to prepare for sowing.

All India soybean arrivals were stood at 145,000-150,000 bags (90 kilogram per bag) as compared to 130,000-135,000 bags. Total arrivals in Madhya Pradesh were at 80,000-100,000 bags, in Maharashtra inventories stood at 55,000-60,000 bags while in Rajasthan soybean arrivals were at 15,000-20,000 bags. Arrivals in the local mandis also rose as farmers are offloading to prepare for next sowing.

Informa Economics raised its planting forecast of the United States, the world's biggest bean producer, for 2017 to 89.662 million acres as compared to 89.5 million acres estimated in March. Similarly, statistics agencies in Brazil and Argentina also raised output forecast for respective country. India's monsoon rains are expected to arrive on the southern Kerala coast on May 30, two days ahead of schedule, a weather office source said.

At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -45 Rupees to 2996 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.76% to settled at 133290 while prices down -59 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 2772 and below same could see a test of 2733 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 2871, a move above could see prices testing 2931.

Trading Ideas:

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 2733-2931.

*  Soyabean prices ended with losses on account of lower demand and arrivals in local mandis spurted as marginal.

*  Arrivals in the local mandis also rose as farmers are offloading to prepare for next sowing.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses soyabean stocks dropped by 842 tonnes to 127274 tonnes.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -45 Rupees to 2996 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil on NCDEX settled up by 0.17% at 631.15 tracking firmness in spot demand despite of oversupply woes. Investors are cautious ahead implementation of good and service tax. There is big uncertainty about implementation of GST, due to which traders are offloading their stock on every rise in the domestic market. India’s oilmeals exports for April 2017 increased 19 per cent to 135,474 tonnes as compared to 113,978 tonnes in the corresponding month last year, the latest data shared by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) revealed.

According to United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) May estimate, U.S 2016/17 ending stocks of soy oil is fell 2.83 percent to 2,062 million lbs from 2,122 million lbs in March estimate. Opening stocks were unchanged at 1,687 million lbs. Production of soy oil in 2016/17 is decreased to 22,350 million lbs from 22,560 million lbs.

The US Agriculture Department said private exporters reported the sale of 132,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations during the 2016-17 marketing year. Good weather in Argentina allowed soy harvesting to advance by 16.8 percentage points over the last seven days, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in its weekly grains report. Government increases the tariff value for crude soyoil for the second half of May by $13 to $793 per tonnes.

There is still good domestic supplies due to cheap imports and high domestic crushing. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 630 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.2% to settled at 53050 while prices up 1.1 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 628 and below same could see a test of 626 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 633, a move above could see prices testing 636.

Trading Ideas:

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 626-636.

* Ref soyoil prices ended with gains tracking firmness in spot demand despite of oversupply woes.

* According to USDA report, the production of soyoil in 2017/18 to increase by 5.5% to 16.9 lt while consumption to improve 7.4% to 58 lt.

* Government increases the tariff value for crude soyoil for the second half of May by $13 to $793 per tonnes.

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 630 Rupees per 10 kgs.

 

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil on MCX settled up by 0.65% at 509.5 after Malaysia unveiled lower-than-expected estimates for its stocks of the vegetable oil, underlining doubts about the strength of an output revival. Malaysian Palm Oil Board of data showed that domestic stocks of the vegetable oil rose by less than expected last month. At 1.60m tonnes, they were up 3.0% month on month, but some 50,000 tonnes short of market forecasts.

The weakness in Malaysian stocks reflected a disappointing production number, of 1.59m tonnes, some 45,000 tonnes below market expectations, for a month when output is in the early stages of a seasonal recovery towards highs around September. Output - while 19.0% above last year's figure, which was undermined by drought stemming from El Nino – remained 145,000 tonnes below the result for April 2015, before the dryness struck.

Stocks of crude palm oil in Malaysia, the world's second-largest producer, rose to some 1.55m tonnes, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), showed. This is up 6.5% from last month, and represents a much faster growth than was expected, with inventories fairly flat month-on-month.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.09% to settled at 4661 while prices up 3.3 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 505 and below same could see a test of 500.6 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 512.9, a move above could see prices testing 516.4.

Trading Ideas:

* CPO trading range for the day is 500.6-516.4.

* Crude palm oil gained after Malaysia unveiled lower-than-expected estimates for its stocks of the vegetable oil

* Malaysian Palm Oil Board of data showed that domestic stocks of the vegetable oil rose by less than expected last month.

* The weakness in Malaysian stocks reflected a disappointing production number, of 1.59m tonnes, some 45,000 tonnes below market expectations.

* Crude palm oil prices in spot market gained by 3.70 rupees and settled at 518.30 rupees.

 

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled down by -0.88% at 3737 as arrivals across India rose as higher mandi rates prompted farmers to offload their produces. All India rape/mustard seed arrivals stood at 250,000 bags (80 kilogram per bag) 205,000 bags. Total arrivals in Rajasthan were around 130,000 bags, in Gujarat arrivals stood at 10,000 bags, in Uttar Pradesh inventories stood at 40,000 bags, in Haryana-Panjab mustard arrivals stood at 35,000 while in Madhya Pradesh mustard arrivals were at 10,000 bags.

Positive crushing after sharp fall in the prices near minimum support prices (MSP) of Rs 3,700 per quintal tempted crushers and stockiest to increase buying activity. Good weather and increase in minimum support prices (MSP), which attracted farmers to plant higher mustard, resulted into record crop of over 71.09 lakh tonnes, says industry body Solvent Extractors Association. The carry-forward stock from the previous season was around 0.15 mt.

The Ministry of Agriculture expects 8.5 mt of mustard seeds to be produced in the current rabi season against 6.8 mt a year ago, as per its 4th advanced estimates. Higher price levels seen before sowing, favourable weather and a hike of over 10.4 per cent in MSP to Rs. 3,700/Q (including Rs. 100 bonus) explain the increase in acreage by over 9 per cent to 7.05 million hectares.

In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -25.75 Rupees to end at 3767.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.8% to settled at 68920 while prices down -33 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 3712 and below same could see a test of 3688 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3770, a move above could see prices testing 3804.

Trading Ideas:

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 3688-3804.

* Mustard seed prices dropped as arrivals across India rose as higher mandi rates prompted farmers to offload their produces.

* All India rape/mustard seed arrivals stood at 250,000 bags (80 kilogram per bag) 205,000 bags.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses mustard seed stocks gained by 282 tonnes to 39127 tonnes.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -25.75 Rupees to end at 3767.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Turmeric

Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -0.35% at 5684 tracking weakness in spot demand as demand was lower from industrial buyers. Turmeric arrivals in the country are lower in first 14 days of May at 28,212 tonnes compared to 69,452 tonnes during April (1-14), as per the data. The lower arrivals are due to poor realization by the farmers. On the export front, country exported about 97,596 tonnes during April-Feb period, up by 26.6% compared to last year exports of 77,087 tonnes, as per government data.

There are expectations of improved demand in coming weeks as prices are lower. Andhra Pradesh government projected 2016-17 turmeric crop at 155,000 ton up from 121,000 ton in the previous year. According to traders 2016-17 output is seen at 7.5 million bags of 70 kg each and with over stock of nearly 3 million bags total availability is expected around 10.5 million bags. As against this, domestic demand is estimated at 5.5 million bags and export at 2.2 million bags.

The price of the spot turmeric improved. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association Sales yard, the finger turmeric sold at Rs. 5,855 to Rs. 7,479 a quintal, root variety sold at Rs. 5211 to Rs. 6255 a quintal. At the Regulated Marketing Committee, the finger turmeric sold at Rs. 5,699 to Rs. 6599 a quintal, root variety sold at Rs. 5,199 to Rs. 6,029 a quintal.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5566.65 Rupees gained 6.65 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.03% to settled at 15965 while prices down -20 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 5604 and below same could see a test of 5526 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 5746, a move above could see prices testing 5810.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 5526-5810.

* Turmeic prices dropped tracking weakness in spot demand as demand was lower from industrial buyers.

* Andhra Pradesh government projected 2016-17 turmeric crop at 155,000 ton up from 121,000 ton in the previous year.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks gained by 239 tonnes to 5625 tonnes.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5566.65 Rupees gained 6.65 Rupees.

 

Jeera

Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 1.09% at 18140 tracking firmness in spot demand on lower arrivals from the producing regions. The arrivals have now slowed down in the physical market so as off take. As per data, about 4,316 tonnes of jeera arrived in May (1-14) compared to 17,494 in April (1-14). On the export front, country the exports increase by 29.6% to 1,08,513 tonnes in first 11 month of marketing year 2016/17 as per the data release by Dept of commerce, GOI.

The stock levels in the NCDEX warehouse increase to 2,176 tonnes, up by 125% in last 15 days. On 1st May, the stocks was only 964 tonnes. Sources estimate India’s jeera crop output will be around 2.5 lakh tonnes, lower than the 3.75 to 5 lakh-tonne estimated. Even at the lower crop estimate, jeera exports are projected to range between 100,000-150,000 tonnes, for the year. Exports will happen in spite of higher prices because there is no supplier of jeera available globally.

Syria has a significant share at 30,000-40,000 tonnes, while Turkey is very small at 10,000 tonnes. Industry players are expecting exports will cross 120,000 tonnes this year against 94,352 tonnes a year ago. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 3.1 Rupees to end at 18423.1 Rupees per 100 kg.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.11% to settled at 16731 while prices up 195 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 17900 and below same could see a test of 17660 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 18280, a move above could see prices testing 18420.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 17660-18420.

* Jeera prices gained trackinng firmness in spot demand on lower arrivals from the producing regions.

* Sources estimate India’s jeera crop output will be around 2.5 lakh tonnes, lower than the 3.75 to 5 lakh-tonne estimated.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks gained by 297 tonnes to 2473 tonnes.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 3.1 Rupees to end at 18423.1 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Maize

Maize settled flat tracking weakness in spot demand amid arrival pressure. Due to rainfall, maize crop contains 16-17% moisture and is being traded at lower rate. The USDA Crop Progress Report noted that 44% of the corn crop is in the ground, up from 34% a week ago but behind the five-year average of 52%. As per the USDA, export inspections of U.S. corn in the latest week at 720,586 tonnes, below a range of trade expectations for 900,000 to 1.2 million toNnes.

For corn, Informa Economics lowered its projection of U.S. 2017 plantings to 89.7 million acres, trade sources said, below the USDA's March 31 figure of 90.0 million acres. Large speculators increased their net short position in CBOT corn futures in the week to May. 9, regulatory data released on Friday showed.

Chinese farmers are expected to sow 35.84 million hectares of corn this year, down 2.5 percent from last year, the agriculture ministry said, as Beijing looks to boost alternative crops to reduce its corn glut. In its first estimate for the 2017 crop, the ministry said China is expected to produce 213.19 million tonnes of corn, down 2.9 percent from a year ago.

The planting forecast in the monthly report on Chinese Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) shows a smaller percentage decline than predicted by China's National Bureau of Statistics last month. In Nizamabad maize spot prices gained 7.5 Rupees to 1524.15 Rupees per 100kgs.

Trading Ideas:

* Maize trading range for the day is 1428-1468.

* Maize prices ended with losses tracking weakness in spot demand amid arrival pressure.

* USDA Crop Progress Report noted that 44% of the corn crop is in the ground, up from 34% a week ago

* NCDEX accredited warehouses maize stocks gained by 256 tonnes to 1658 tonnes.

* In Nizamabad maize spot prices gained 7.5 Rupees to 1524.15 Rupees per 100kgs.

 

Cardamom

Cardamom on MCX settled down by -0.14% at 1053.3 on slack demand amid increased arrivals at auctions held in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. As a result, the prices slipped by around Rs. 50 a kg within a week. Upcountry buyers were buying but not aggressively. Exporters have bought an estimated 40-50 tonnes. Arrivals last week moved up to 463 tonnes from 367 tonnes the previous week. At auction held by Cardamom Planters Association, Santhanpara, in Bodinayakannur 8.2 tonnes arrived and of this 6.5 tonnes were traded.

Maximum price stood at Rs. 1,008 a kg while the average dropped toRs. 877.95 a kg from 962.11 a kg the previous Monday. The individual auction average slipped last week to Rs. 941.41 a kg from 973.40 the previous week. Total arrivals during the current season up to May 13, 2017 stood at 17,130 tonnes and the sales were at 16,293 tonnes. Individual auction average for the season as on May 13 was at Rs. 1,129.33 a kg.

The growing regions have received good summer showers and hence the next crop is likely to hit the market by mid-June. Sources expects higher Cardamom production current year due to favourable weather condition in major growing region. Current year new crop will come from July-August month. Cardamom imports reported higher in Indian market from Guatemala due to lower prices.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.24% to settled at 422 while prices down -1.5 rupees, now Cardamom is getting support at 1049.6 and below same could see a test of 1045.8 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1056.7, a move above could see prices testing 1060.

Trading Ideas:

* Cardamom trading range for the day is 1045.8-1060.

* Cardamom prices dropped on slack demand amid increased arrivals at auctions held in Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

* Arrivals last week moved up to 463 tonnes from 367 tonnes the previous week.

* At auction held by Cardamom Planters Association, Santhanpara, in Bodinayakannur 8.2 tonnes arrived and of this 6.5 tonnes were traded.

* Cardamom prices in spot market dropped by 3.90 rupees and settled at 1210.00 rupees.

 

Cotton

Cotton on MCX settled down by -0.38% at 21130 amid higher supplies this season through imports and good stocks available with the farmers. According to trade sources, India’s cotton imports have touched an all-time high of 30 lakh bales this season. USDA forecasts India cotton production for 2017/18 at 6.01 mt, up nearly 6% while area is forecast at 11.5 mhac, up 10% from last year. The domestic cotton arrivals in April are higher by 49% on year at 2.64 lakh tonnes (lt) compared to 1.77 lt last year, as per data.

The USDA reported US cotton planting 33% complete, lagging the average of 37% and last year’s 38%. Weekly export data also supported cotton prices which showed net upland sales last week totaled 160,600 running bales, up 5% from the week before. However, favorable planting conditions across major producing areas across the world may pressurize prices.

Sowing of cotton has begun on a strong note in the key growing regions of North India such as Punjab and Haryana, and Southern Karnataka, for the 2017-18 season. Buoyed by the high prevailing prices, farmers are seen bringing in a larger area under the fibre crop and the seed industry expects acreages this year to increase by up to a fifth over the previous year.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.1% to settled at 4186 while prices down -80 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21066 and below same could see a test of 21003 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 21226, a move above could see prices testing 21323.

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 21003-21323.

* Cotton prices dropped amid higher supplies this season through imports and good stocks available with the farmers.

* According to trade sources, India’s cotton imports have touched an all-time high of 30 lakh bales this season.

* Sowing of cotton has begun on a strong note in the key growing regions of North India for the 2017-18 season.

* Cotton prices in spot market gained by 10.00 rupees and settled at 20600.00 rupees.

 

-www.kediaadvisory.com

 

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