Published on 18/05/2017 12:03:15 PM | Source: Kedia Commodity Ltd

Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 630-636 - Kedia Commodity

Posted in Commodities Reports | #Kedia Commodity Ltd #Commodity Tips


Gold

Gold on MCX settled up 1.87% at 28619 rallied in the line of expectation tracking gains from Comex Gold which soared $22.30 to settle at $1,258.70 an ounce, at the highest since April 28, as dollar fell amid political uncertainty after a source said U.S. President Donald Trump asked the FBI to end a probe into his former security adviser. President Trump shared sensitive intelligence obtained from a close US ally—possibly Israel—with Russia’s foreign minister and ambassador in a meeting last week, according to U.S. officials.

That exchange potentially jeopardizes critical intelligence-sharing agreements in the fight against Islamic State. Also support seen for bullion prices where Gold had also settled at a nearly two-week high after more show of nuclear strength from North Korea. As for the economic side of the equation, data on single-family housing starts, although part of an otherwise mixed report, is unlikely to sway the Federal Reserve from rate-hike plans.

Meanwhile Indian gold imports will drop back sharply after jumping in the first quarter, the WGC said as the launch of a new tax regime and restrictions on refiners' ability to import gold dore take their toll. Full-year imports will be little changed from 2016's 524 tonnes. Given the doubling of imports in the first quarter to 253 tonnes, as jewellers rushed to restock ahead of the introduction of the new national sales tax on July 1, that suggests imports will reach only 271 tonnes in the remainder of the year, a quarterly average of just 90 tonnes. Technically market is getting support at 28297 and below same could see a test of 27976 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 28792, a move above could see prices testing 28966.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 27976-28966.

* Gold soared near to 2% gains to a two-week high as investors poured back into the safe-haven trade, after US political turmoil.

* Downward movement in yields & dollar have given support to gold as political turmoil in US reduced expectations of rate hike

* The dollar fell to its lowest since Trump was elected in November and is likely to drop further.

 

Silver

Silver on MCX settled up 1.17% at 39199 buoyed by a slump in the US dollar as investors took refuge in the precious metal following reports that President Donald Trump shared classified information with top Russian officials at a meeting last week. Investors poured back into the safe-haven trade, after US political turmoil and a recent batch of downbeat economic data dampened investor appetite for riskier assets.

The US political saga continued to dominate market moves for a second-straight day amid reports that President Donald Trump asked the then-FBI Director James Comey to shut down an investigation into the actions of former National Security Advisor Mike Flynn. The latest political saga out of Washington weighed on the dollar, which underpinned a surge in commodities across the board. The US Dollar Index dropped to fresh six-month lows to settled at 97.43, down 0.63%. On the economic calendar, the Eurozone’s annual inflation rate was confirmed at 1.9% in April, matching forecasts.

While UK employers added workers to payrolls last month, with average hourly earnings climbing 2.4% annually in the three months ended March. All U.K. data were courtesy of the Office for National Statistics. There was no major events scheduled in US on Wednesday. Market participants will turn their attention to speeches from the Federal Reserve and ECB in the latter half of the week. Technically market is getting support at 38947 and below same could see a test of 38695 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 39413, a move above could see prices testing 39627.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 38695-39627.

* Silver rallied as political turmoil surrounding the Trump administration has rocked the US dollar, with falling to its lowest level since Nov.

* Dollar fell amid political uncertainty after a source said US President asked the FBI to end a probe into his former security adviser.

* Photovoltaic and ethylene oxide sectors saw record high demand for silver which rose by more than one-third to record high levels.

 

Crudeoil

Crudeoil on MCX settled up 1.06% at 3156 as investors cheered the release of a bullish report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), showing U.S. crude inventories fell for a sixth-straight week. For the week ended May 12, the EIA said that crude oil inventories fell by 1.75 million barrels, compared to expectations of a draw of around 2.4 million barrels. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories dropped by only 0.413 million against expectations for a draw of 0.731 million barrels while distillate stockpiles fell by 1.94 million barrels, compared to expectations of a 1 million decline.

The smaller than expected drawdown in both crude and gasoline inventories caused oil prices to dip but losses were pared later during session, as investors turned attention to OPEC’s meeting on May 25. In order to achieve the target of reducing these stocks to their five-year average over an extended nine-month period of supply cuts, BMI said that inventory drawdowns would have to average 25.6 million barrels per month in the three last quarters of the year.

Overall oil supplies remain ample, with large amounts of crude from the United States and other producers being shipped to the big consumer regions in northern Asia, undermining the OPEC-led efforts to tighten the market. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers including Russia have pledged to cut production by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) during the first half of 2016, a deal likely to be extended until the end of March 2018. Technically now Crudeoil is getting support at 3104 and below same could see a test of 3053 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3190, a move above could see prices testing 3225.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 3053-3225.

* Crude oil prices gained as support seen after data showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell for the sixth week in a row.

* The U.S. EIA said in its weekly report that crude oil inventories fell by 1.8 million barrels in the week ended May 12, the sixth weekly decline in a row.

* Global stockpiles have remained stubbornly high despite the curbs, in part because U.S. production has climbed 10 percent since mid-2016 to 9.3 million.

 

Naturalgas

Naturalgas on MCX settled down -0.78% at 204.70 came under pressure at the start of the week amid expectations of a drop in demand, after the latest U.S. weather model predicted mild temperatures over the next two weeks. Also colder than normal weather is expected to spread across most of the United States during the next 8-14 days which will reduce cooling demand during a period when the weather normally heats up.

Prices dropped but settle well of the lows of the session. Natural gas futures are down roughly 6% so far this week as the latest U.S. weather model called for mild temperatures over the next two weeks, which should reduce demand during that time. While weather condition at the south-central, southern, and eastern US will experience highs of 80s to near 90°F, including major East Coast cities to drive stronger than normal cooling demand.

The West will be chilly as Pacific weather systems sweep through. Cooling is expected to push into the central US late in the week, holding through the weekend, including Texas. Cooler than normal conditions are expected to reach the eastern US next week, keeping slightly stronger than normal nat gas use in place. Traders are now eyeing on the EIA's storage report due tonight which is expected to show a build in a range between 55 and 63bcf in the week ended May 12.

That compares with a gain of 45bcf in the preceding week, an increase of 73 billion a year earlier and a five-year average rise of 87bcf. Technically market is getting support at 202 and below same could see a test of 199.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 208.4, a move above could see prices testing 212.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 199.4-212.2.

* Naturalgas settled down at 204.70 came under pressure at the start of the week amid expectations of a drop in demand.

* Pressure seen after the latest US weather model called for mild temperatures over the next two weeks, which should reduce demand during that time.

* Cooler than normal conditions are expected to reach the eastern US next week, keeping slightly stronger than normal natural gas use in place.

 

Copper

Copper on MCX settled up 0.19% at 363.15 recovered from the day's low supported by a weaker dollar index which wallowed near its lowest since Nov. 9 due to an intensifying political scandal around U.S. President Donald Trump. Yesterday Copper on the London Metal Exchange settled 0.19 percent higher at $5,622 a tonne. Copper inventories have had a chaotic few weeks. As has been the case many times in the last year, LME inventories seem disconnected from reality with the massive week to week swings.

Copper inventories on LME have climbed by a third since late April after data showed on Wednesday they added another 17,100 tonnes to 339,600. Copper prices were largely unchanged since this week stated stymied by expectations of slowing growth in the economy of top metals consumer China. After clocking 6.9 percent in the first quarter thanks to spending on infrastructure and a property boom that policymakers want to rein in economic growth.

On the economic calendar, the Eurozone’s annual inflation rate was confirmed at 1.9% in April, matching forecasts. While UK employers added workers to payrolls last month, with average hourly earnings climbing 2.4% annually in the three months ended March. All U.K. data were courtesy of the Office for National Statistics. There was no major events scheduled from US zone on Wednesday. Market participants will turn their attention to speeches from the Federal Reserve and ECB in the latter half of the week.

Traders were looking ahead to Chinese housing price data later this week, which could impact the price of copper and other base metals used in construction. Now technically market is getting support at 360.8 and below same could see a test of 358.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 364.7, a move above could see prices testing 366.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 358.5-366.3.

* Copper prices traded in range stymied by expectations of slowing growth in the economy of top metals consumer China.

* After clocking 6.9 percent in the first quarter thanks to spending on infrastructure and a property boom that policymakers want to rein in.

* China's growth is set for its weakest patch since the global financial crisis as authorities pull back on stimulus.

 

Zinc

Zinc on MCX settled up 0.8% at 164.35 tracking firmness from LME Zinc price which closed 0.6 per cent firmer at $US2,561 a tonne tracking firmness in LME prices as support seen after steel prices jumped. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) recently released its annual demand/supply forecast for the zinc market. The group anticipates global demand for refined zinc to be greater than supply in 2017, keeping zinc markets in a deficit for a second consecutive year.

The ILZSG predicts a deficit of 226,000 tonnes, not much different from the deficit recorded last year. Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities rose 0.7 percent in April from the previous month, faster than the 0.6-percent gain posted in March. Economic growth in top metals consumer China will just about make Beijing's target of 6.5 percent this year, surveyed forecasted, as it slows from 6.9 percent in the first quarter.

On the economic calendar, the Eurozone’s annual inflation rate was confirmed at 1.9% in April, matching forecasts. While UK employers added workers to payrolls last month, with average hourly earnings climbing 2.4% annually in the three months ended March. All U.K. data were courtesy of the Office for National Statistics.

There was no major events scheduled from US zone on Wednesday. Market participants will turn their attention to speeches from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank in the latter half of the week. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.43% to settled at 3585 while prices up 1.3 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 163.6 and below same could see a test of 162.8 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 165.1, a move above could see prices testing 165.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 162.8-165.8.

* Zinc prices ended with gains tracking firmness in LME prices as support seen after steel prices jumped.

* ILZSG anticipates global demand for refined zinc to be greater than supply in 2017, keeping zinc markets in a deficit for a second consecutive year.

* The ILZSG predicts a deficit of 226,000 tonnes, not much different from the deficit recorded last year.

 

Nickel

Nickel settled flat paring its gains after prices earlier received a boost from news that output at a Canadian mine would be suspended. The prospects of less supply bolstered nickel prices after Vale said it would suspend operations at its Birchtree nickel mine on Oct. 1 because of weak nickel prices and declining ore grades. Metals were also supported by a weaker dollar index , which wallowed near its lowest since Nov. 9 due to an intensifying political scandal around U.S. President Donald Trump.

Global nickel market was in a surplus of 3,300 tonnes during the first three months of 2017, according to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS). The market saw a shortage of 62,000 tonnes in the whole year of 2016. On the economic calendar, the Eurozone’s annual inflation rate was confirmed at 1.9% in April, matching forecasts. While UK employers added workers to payrolls last month, with average hourly earnings climbing 2.4% annually in the three months ended March.

All U.K. data were courtesy of the Office for National Statistics. There was no major events scheduled from US zone on Wednesday. Market participants will turn their attention to speeches from the Federal Reserve and ECB in the latter half of the week. Traders were looking ahead to Chinese housing price data later this week, which could impact the price of copper and other base metals used in construction.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.03% to settled at 38917 while prices down -0.2 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 581.4 and below same could see a test of 577.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 592, a move above could see prices testing 598.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Nickel trading range for the day is 577.4-598.6.

* Nickel settled flat paring its gains after prices earlier received a boost from news that output at a Canadian mine would be suspended.

* The prospects of less supply bolstered nickel prices after Vale said it would suspend operations at its Birchtree nickel mine.

* China's banking regulator has tightened disclosure rules on lenders' wealth management products.

 

Aluminium

Aluminium on MCX settled up 0.2% at 123.7 amid deepening global shortage of aluminium. Investors were shelving rosy hopes for U.S. reform and rethinking strategies premised on Donald Trump's economic growth promises on Wednesday, as the President faced his loudest criticism yet over possible collusion between his election campaign and Russia. Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities rose 0.7 percent in April from the previous month, faster than the 0.6-percent gain posted in March.

Aluminum industry in China may face widespread reshuffling and more relevant policies might be released in the second half of this year after the major three aluminum producing provinces recently issued policies to crack down on illegal aluminum projects. The China Banking Regulatory Commission unveiled plans to publish a flurry of regulations later this year to control financial risks.

Economic growth in top metals consumer China will just about make Beijing's target of 6.5 percent this year, it slows from 6.9 percent in the first quarter. In aluminium, it’s clear that the new policies will have a positive impact in the medium and long term and we expect environmental permits to become harder to obtain, which will slow new capacity and support the prices.

Meanwhile, weaker than expected economic data poured cold water on expectations that U.S. economic growth would rebound in the second quarter of the year, after housing data fell below expectations. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.45% to settled at 2426 while prices up 0.25 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 123.4 and below same could see a test of 122.9 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 124.1, a move above could see prices testing 124.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 122.9-124.3.

* Aluminium prices ended with gains amid deepening global shortage of aluminium.

* The China Banking Regulatory Commission unveiled plans to publish a flurry of regulations later this year to control financial risks.

* Economic growth in top metals consumer China will just about make Beijing's target of 6.5 percent this year, it slows from 6.9 percent in the first quarter.

 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil on MCX settled up by 1.06% at 964.5 amid surge in demand in the domestic spot market. Further, tight stocks position on restricted supplies from producing regions, too supported mentha oil prices. Stock positions of Mentha in MCX accredited warehouses were around 4727 drums, while in process were 24 drums, which is same in comparison to the previous day. As per traders, local demand is average from both the local industries as well as stockists.

Also in recent years the production and consumption of synthetic mentha has increased which is creating pressure on the mentha prices. Total production of mentha oil during the current season is 32,000-34,000 tonnes against preliminary estimates of around 40,000 tonnes. Unfavourable weather conditions during harvesting period led to the drop in production. On the demand side, the seasonal demand emerges during winter season, especially from the pharma sector.

Trade sources estimate that total area under Mentha planting has dropped by 20% to 1.75 lakh ha this season resulting into a proportionate fall in Mentha oil production this year. However, a pick up in sowing over last couple of weeks have ensured prices falling for the commodity, as low demand further pressurized market sentiments.

Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1076.20 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.4.20/-.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.14% to settled at 1432 while prices up 10.1 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 953.5 and below same could see a test of 942.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 971.5, a move above could see prices testing 978.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Menthaoil trading range for the day is 942.5-978.5.

* Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1076.20 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.4.20/-.

* Mentha oil settled up amid surge in demand in the domestic spot market.

* Further, tight stocks position on restricted supplies from producing regions, too supported mentha oil prices.

* As per sources, local demand is average from both the local industries as well as stockists.

 

Soyabean

Soyabean on NCDEX settled up by 1.53% at 2853 on short covering tracking firmness in spot demand after prices dropped on account of lower demand and arrivals in local mandis spurted. Around 60% soybean solvent extraction plants in Madhya Pradesh have shut their operations about two months earlier than expected, because of subdued demand for soymeal and lower prices of soyoil.

Most mills stalled their crushing activities during this time last year because of a small crop, but this year, crushing was expected to continue in bulk till the end of June on the back of bumper output, the official said. Soybean crop in the Madhya Pradesh was estimated 58% higher on year at 7.1 mln tn in 2016-17 (Jul-Jun), an official with the state's farm department said.

The 2017-18 soybean ending stocks came in at 480 million bushels, which was 88 million bushels below the pre-report analyst average. USDA projected the 2017-18 soybean production at 4.255 billion bushels, down from 4.307 billion bushels in the 2016-17 crop. Old-crop soybean ending stocks pegged at 435 million bushels, which is 10 million bushels lower than the April report. India's monsoon rains are expected to arrive on the southern Kerala coast on May 30, two days ahead of schedule, a weather office source said.

At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 11 Rupees to 3007 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.82% to settled at 125530 while prices up 43 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 2826 and below same could see a test of 2800 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 2869, a move above could see prices testing 2886.

Trading Ideas:

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 2800-2886.

* Soyabean prices ended with gains on short covering tracking firmness in spot demand after prices dropped on account of lower demand.

* Around 60% soybean solvent extraction plants in Madhya Pradesh have shut their operations about two months earlier than expected.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses soyabean stocks dropped by 2555 tonnes to 124719 tonnes.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 11 Rupees to 3007 Rupees per 100 kgs.
 

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil on NCDEX settled up by 0.34% at 633.3 driven by good physical demand and increase in the tariff value for May. Government increases the tariff value for crude soyoil for the second half of May by $13 to $793 per tonnes. There is still good domestic supplies due to cheap imports and high domestic crushing. According to SEA, Import of soy oils during April 2017 is reported at 3.04 lt compared to 3.50 lt in April 2016 - down by 12.4% however, the imports increase 32% m-o-m.

Moreover, during Nov.’16 – Apr.’17, import of soy oil has been lower to 13.50 lt from 22.44 lt in the same period of last year. According to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, soyoil prices in the key Indore market have fallen to 600-605 rupees per 10 kg from 700-708 rupees early this year. Adequate availability of imported soyoil in domestic markets also put pressure on prices of domestically-produced cooking oil.

India is the world's leading importer of the edible oil. Apart from the disparity in soyoil prices, weak demand for soymeal from overseas as well as domestic buyers has also made crushing unviable for millers. Madhya Pradesh is the largest producer of the oilseed in the country and accounts for over 50% of total soybean output. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 631.2 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.03% to settled at 51440 while prices up 2.15 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 631 and below same could see a test of 630 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 634, a move above could see prices testing 636.

Trading Ideas:

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 630-636.

* Ref soyoil prices ended with gains driven by good physical demand and increase in the tariff value for May.

* Government increases the tariff value for crude soyoil for the second half of May by $13 to $793 per tonnes.

* There is still good domestic supplies due to cheap imports and high domestic crushing.

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 631.2 Rupees per 10 kgs.

 

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil on MCX settled up by 0.84% at 513.8 amid good physical demand and increasing tariff value. As per SEA, During Nov.’16 – Apr.’17, Import of crude oil decreased to 56.3 lt from 61.8n lt tons during the same period of last year. The government cut the base import prices of Crude palm oil by $9/tonne and RBD palmolein by $6/tonne for second half of May. There are still bullish sentiments due to good exports. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for May 1-15 rose 8.9% shipped during Apr. 1-15, as per intertek.

The MPOB data showed April production rose 5.7% to 1.55 mt. The growth was below market expectations. Palm oil import rose 2.25 per cent to 7,52,632 tonnes in April on higher shipment of crude palm oil (CPO), industry body Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) said. India, the world's leading vegetable oil buyer, had imported 7,36,036 tonnes palm oil in April 2016. The country's total vegetable oil import grew by 7 per cent to 13,39,489 tonnes in April this year, from 12,48,887 tonnes in the year-ago period.

Palm oils comprise 62 per cent of the total vegetable oil import. Malaysian Palm Oil Board of data showed that domestic stocks of the vegetable oil rose by less than expected last month. At 1.60m tonnes, they were up 3.0% month on month, but some 50,000 tonnes short of market forecasts.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.69% to settled at 4349 while prices up 4.3 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 511.1 and below same could see a test of 508.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 515.8, a move above could see prices testing 517.9.

Trading Ideas:

* CPO trading range for the day is 508.5-517.9.

* Crude palm oil ended with gains amid good physical demand and increasing tariff value.

* Palm oil import rose 2.25 per cent to 7,52,632 tonnes in April on higher shipment of crude palm oil (CPO), SEA said.

* Malaysian Palm Oil Board of data showed that domestic stocks of the vegetable oil rose by less than expected last month.

* Crude palm oil prices in spot market gained by 3.70 rupees and settled at 518.30 rupees.

 

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled up by 0.19% at 3744 on short covering amid supply worries. However upside seen limited as procurement by government agencies prompted farmers to not to sell their produces in local mandis. National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (Nafed) procured around 37,648.77 tons of mustard seed from 17,241 farmers of Haryana till May 10. Rapeseed-Mustard is the main oilseed crop for the Rabi season which is planted on more than 80% area covered under oilseeds.

Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Gujarat are the highest sown states of mustard seed accounting for more than 70% of total mustard acreage in the country. This year due to fairly good distribution of rainfall during monsoon season 2016 has resulted substantial surface water storage to serve irrigation requirement of rabi crops.

The acreage under rapeseed-mustard has increased because of favourable weather conditions and adequate soil moisture. Moreover, increase in minimum support prices (MSP) too attracts farmers to plant higher mustard crop, resulted into record crop of over 71.09 lakh tonnes. Demand for mustard oil has declined further so it has edged lower by Rs 6 to trade at Rs 716 per 10 kilogram.

At Jaipur market, total arrivals are at 125000 Bags, lower by 5000 Bags from previous trading day. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -25.75 Rupees to end at 3767.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.32% to settled at 68010 while prices up 7 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 3735 and below same could see a test of 3727 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3753, a move above could see prices testing 3763.

Trading Ideas:

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 3727-3763.

* Mustard seed prices ended with gains on short covering amid supply worries.

* However upside seen limited as procurement by government agencies prompted farmers to not to sell their produces in local mandis.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses mustard seed stocks gained by 191 tonnes to 39318 tonnes.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -25.75 Rupees to end at 3767.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Turmeric

Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -0.46% at 5658 amid reports of higher output amid poor export buying. In coming days, arrivals are expected to increase which could put pressure over prices. Prices may decline due to pressure of arrivals but improved domestic and export demand for the new turmeric may support prices. New crop arrivals have started in all the major producing centres of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, Odisha.

Production in the ongoing season is expected to increase mainly on higher sowing area and favourable weather conditions in Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh etc. According to trade sources turmeric output is expected to be around 7.5-8 million bags. India's Apr-Sept turmeric export stood at 59,000 ton up 47% on year, according to Spices Board data. At Erode market, total arrivals are at 2500 quintals, higher by 500 quintals from previous trading day.

At Nizamabad market sources reported arrivals at 5000 quintals, unchanged as compared to previous day’s arrival. The Salem Hybrid turmeric fetched Rs. 7,800 a quintal and other local turmeric sold at Rs. 6,500 a quintal. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association Sales yard, the finger turmeric sold at Rs. 5,629 to 7,809 a quintal, root variety sold atRs. 5,239 to 6,469 a quintal. Of the arrival of 753 bags347 bags were sold.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5537.5 Rupees dropped -29.15 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.88% to settled at 16265 while prices down -26 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 5604 and below same could see a test of 5548 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 5728, a move above could see prices testing 5796.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 5548-5796.

* Turmeric prices ended with losses amid reports of higher output amid poor export buying.

* New crop arrivals have started in all the major producing centres of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, Odisha.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks gained by 160 tonnes to 5785 tonnes.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5537.5 Rupees dropped -29.15 Rupees.

 

Jeera

Jeera on NCDEX settled down by -1.19% at 17925 amid tepid demand in the spot market. The arrivals have now slowed down in the physical market. As per data, about 4,316 tonnes of jeera arrived in May (1-14) compared to 17,494 in April (1-14). On the export front, country the exports increase by 29.6% to 1,08,513 tonnes in first 11 month of marketing year 2016/17 as per the data release by Dept of commerce, GOI.

The stock levels in the NCDEX warehouse increase to 2,176 tonnes, up by 125% in last 15 days. On 1st May, the stocks were only 964 tonnes. Sources estimate India’s jeera crop output will be around 2.5 lakh tonnes, lower than the 3.75 to 5 lakh-tonne estimates put out by experts. Even at the lower crop estimate, jeera exports are projected to range between 100,000-150,000 tonnes, for the year. Exports will happen in spite of higher prices because there is no supplier of jeera available globally.

Syria has a significant share at 30,000-40,000 tonnes, while Turkey is very small at 10,000 tonnes. At Patan market in Patan(Guj.), arrivals were reported at 25 quintals, lower by 25 quintals as compared to previous day. At Rajkot market in Rajkot(Guj.), sources reported arrivals at 320 quintal, lower by 90 quintal as against previous day.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -15.4 Rupees to end at 18407.7 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.72% to settled at 17019 while prices down -215 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 17780 and below same could see a test of 17630 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 18175, a move above could see prices testing 18420.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 17630-18420.

* Jeera prices ended with losses amid tepid demand in the spot market.

* Prices also seen supported as the arrivals have now slowed down in the physical market.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 366 tonnes to 2107 tonnes.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -15.4 Rupees to end at 18407.7 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Maize

Maize settled flat tracking weakness in spot demand amid arrival pressure. Due to rainfall, maize crop contains 16-17% moisture and is being traded at lower rate. The USDA Crop Progress Report noted that 44% of the corn crop is in the ground, up from 34% a week ago but behind the five-year average of 52%. As per the USDA, export inspections of U.S. corn in the latest week at 720,586 tonnes, below a range of trade expectations for 900,000 to 1.2 million toNnes.

For corn, Informa Economics lowered its projection of U.S. 2017 plantings to 89.7 million acres, trade sources said, below the USDA's March 31 figure of 90.0 million acres. Large speculators increased their net short position in CBOT corn futures in the week to May. 9, regulatory data released on Friday showed. Chinese farmers are expected to sow 35.84 million hectares of corn this year, down 2.5 percent from last year, the agriculture ministry said, as Beijing looks to boost alternative crops to reduce its corn glut.

In its first estimate for the 2017 crop, the ministry said China is expected to produce 213.19 million tonnes of corn, down 2.9 percent from a year ago. The planting forecast in the monthly report on Chinese Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) shows a smaller percentage decline than predicted by China's National Bureau of Statistics last month. In Nizamabad maize spot prices gained 7.5 Rupees to 1524.15 Rupees per 100kgs.

Trading Ideas:

* Maize trading range for the day is 1428-1468.

* Maize prices ended with losses tracking weakness in spot demand amid arrival pressure.

* USDA Crop Progress Report noted that 44% of the corn crop is in the ground, up from 34% a week ago

* NCDEX accredited warehouses maize stocks dropped by 513 tonnes to 1145 tonnes.

* In Nizamabad maize spot prices gained 5.35 Rupees to 1529.5 Rupees per 100kgs.

 

Cardamom

Cardamom on MCX settled down by -2.78% at 1024 on slack demand amid increased arrivals at auctions held in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. As a result, the prices slipped by around Rs. 50 a kg within a week. Upcountry buyers were buying but not aggressively. Exporters have bought an estimated 40-50 tonnes. Arrivals last week moved up to 463 tonnes from 367 tonnes the previous week. At auction held by Cardamom Planters Association, Santhanpara, in Bodinayakannur 8.2 tonnes arrived and of this 6.5 tonnes were traded.

Maximum price stood at Rs. 1,008 a kg while the average dropped toRs. 877.95 a kg from 962.11 a kg the previous Monday. The individual auction average slipped last week to Rs. 941.41 a kg from 973.40 the previous week. Total arrivals during the current season up to May 13, 2017 stood at 17,130 tonnes and the sales were at 16,293 tonnes. Individual auction average for the season as on May 13 was at Rs. 1,129.33 a kg.

The growing regions have received good summer showers and hence the next crop is likely to hit the market by mid-June. Sources expects higher Cardamom production current year due to favourable weather condition in major growing region. Current year new crop will come from July-August month. Cardamom imports reported higher in Indian market from Guatemala due to lower prices.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.5% to settled at 403 while prices down -29.3 rupees, now Cardamom is getting support at 1010.7 and below same could see a test of 997.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1048.4, a move above could see prices testing 1072.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Cardamom trading range for the day is 997.4-1072.8.

* Cardamom prices dropped on slack demand amid increased arrivals at auctions held in Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

* Arrivals last week moved up to 463 tonnes from 367 tonnes the previous week.

* At auction held by Cardamom Planters Association, Santhanpara, in Bodinayakannur 8.2 tonnes arrived and of this 6.5 tonnes were traded.

* Cardamom prices in spot market dropped by 3.90 rupees and settled at 1210.00 rupees.

 

Cotton

Cotton on MCX settled up by 0.57% at 21250 tracking cues from firmness in global prices. However upside seen limited amid expectation of timely arrival of monsoon and speeding up of sowing activities in northern region. There are supplies this season through imports and good stocks available with the farmers. According to trade sources, India’s cotton imports have touched an all-time high of 30 lakh bales this season. USDA forecasts India cotton production for 2017/18 at 6.01 mt, up nearly 6% while area is forecast at 11.5 mhac, up 10% from last year.

The domestic cotton arrivals in April are higher by 49% on year at 2.64 lakh tonnes (lt) compared to 1.77 lt last year. In the meanwhile, USDA released its very first advance estimates for year 2017-18 showed remarkable rise in global production in upcoming season. Global production is expected to rise nearly 7 % y/y to 113.22 million bales of 480 lb each, despite marginally lower average yields, as area rebounds to its highest level in 3 years.

Production is forecast to rise by 11.8%y/y to 19.2 million bales in US and 5.7% y/y to 28 million bales in India during year 2017-18. In China, cotton production is likely to increase by 3.3% y/y to 23.5 million bales. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.54% to settled at 3954 while prices up 120 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21096 and below same could see a test of 20943 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 21356, a move above could see prices testing 21463.

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 20943-21463.

* Cotton prices ended with gains tracking cues from firmness in global prices.

* However upside seen limited amid expectation of timely arrival of monsoon and speeding up of sowing activities in northern region.

* There are supplies this season through imports and good stocks available with the farmers.

* Cotton prices in spot market gained by 10.00 rupees and settled at 20600.00 rupees.

 

-www.kediaadvisory.com

 

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