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Published on 7/12/2019 10:30:00 AM | Source: Motilal Oswal Ltd

Buy NTPC Ltd For The Target Rs.163 - Motilal Oswal

Posted in Broking Firm Views - Long Term Report| #NTPC Ltd #Power Sector #Broking Firm Views Report #Motilal Oswal #Quarterly Result

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Transaction value yet to be finalized

 

Government to sell stake in NEEPCO and THDC

* As part of the Indian government’s strategic divestment program, the cabinet has approved the stake sale in NEEPCO (GoI stake: 100%) and THDC (GoI: 74%; UP govt.: 26%) to NTPC (GoI: 54.5%).

* Details on the transaction value though are still awaited. According to our interaction with NTPC, the purchase value for these assets will be decided after an internal assessment. This process could take another 2-3 months.

 

THDC and NEEPCO: A hydro dominated portfolio

* THDC (~1.5GW) and NEEPCO (~1.45GW) are broadly a hydro dominated portfolio, with combined hydro capacity of 2.3GW (refer exhibits 1/2). Acquisition of the same would increase NTPC’s commercial capacity by ~5%.

THDC – stable portfolio of hydro: THDC operates 1.4GW of hydro plants and ~0.1GW of renewable capacity. According to tariff orders, regulated equity for its hydro portfolio stands at ~INR32b. Adj. profits were at INR8.5b for FY19, implying a core RoE of ~19-20% (base RoE: 16.5%). Overall, RoE is at ~9-10% given CWIP and WC investments.

NEEPCO – u/r likely denting profitability: NEEPCO’s 1.45GW of operational portfolio includes a mix of hydro (0.9GW) and thermal (0.5GW) capacities. According to our analysis of tariff orders, the regulated equity base would stand at ~INR33b. However, annual PAT for NEEPCO stands at just ~INR2b (implied PAT at 15.5% RoE should have been ~INR5b). We believe that this could be led by: (1) F/C under-recoveries for its thermal plants (given actual PAF is lower than normative availability factors) and

(2) lower capital costs approval.

 

Value accretion dependent on transaction value and upcoming projects

* Value accretion would be dependent on the actual acquisition value and the progress on under-construction projects at THDC and NEEPCO. THDC and NEEPCO together have 2.1GW of hydro assets under construction along with other projects that are awaiting/have recently received approvals. A total of INR117b of works are under CWIP (for THDC + NEEPCO). Given the long gestation period and delays (related to clearances, resettlement & rehabilitation issues) in the commissioning of hydro projects, there remains a risk to execution timelines. NEEPCO’s Kameng (600MW) project though is expected to commission this year, which would be a positive.

 

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