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Monthly fixed Income Outlook -September 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund Monthly Commentary Sept 2023 – Fixed Income In the last month, the 10-year Indian government bond (G-sec) yield went up to 7.25% in the first half and then retraced back to the previous month’s closing level of 7.17% by the end of the month.   Longer end 20-30 years maturity G-sec yields declined by 3-5 basis points, while the shorter maturity 1-year G-Sec yield went up by around 10 basis points from 6.90% to 7.00%. Market movement during the month was closely linked...
Monthly fixed Income Outlook -September 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Monthly fixed Income Outlook -September 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Source: PR Agency
7/09/2023 4:22:36 PM
Debt Market Observer for Aug 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income, Quantum Mutual Fund Looking Through the Noise In the bond market, the sentiment pendulum has swung from one extreme to another over the last two months. Relentless rise in the US treasury yields and surprise jump in domestic inflation have rattled the investor sentiment in the Indian bond markets pushing bond yields higher and prices lower.  The 10-year Indian government bond (Gsec) yield which had fallen to lows of 6.95% in May, has jumped to the peak of 7.26%, before pulling back to the current leve...
Debt Market Observer for Aug 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income, Quantum Mutual Fund
Debt Market Observer for Aug 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income, Quantum Mutual Fund
Source: PR Agency
24/08/2023 3:51:04 PM
Fixed Income Monthly Commentary - August 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income Below the Quote on The Monthly Fixed Income View- July 23 by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income   Bond yields moved up in July due to sharp jump in the US treasury yields and Brent crude oil price. Higher-than-expected inflation print and abrupt jump in vegetable, cereals and pulses prices further dampened the market sentiments. The 10-year Indian government bond (G-sec) yield rose 6 basis points (1%=100 basis points) in the month of July to closed at 7.17% on J...
Fixed Income Monthly Commentary - August 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income
Fixed Income Monthly Commentary - August 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income
Source: PR Agency
11/08/2023 4:41:04 PM
RBI Policy comment by Pankaj Pathak , Quantum AMC Below Post RBI Policy comment by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income, Quantum AMC. Going into the policy, the market expectation was for status quo on rates and a cautious tone on inflation. To that extent this policy was non-event. The fact that the RBI sees the current jump in vegetable prices to be transitory, has significantly lowered the uncertainty in the bond market. In the coming 2-3 months CPI inflation will be above the RBI’s upper threshold due to spike in vegetable ...
RBI Policy comment by Pankaj Pathak , Quantum AMC
RBI Policy comment by Pankaj Pathak , Quantum AMC
Source: PR Agency
10/08/2023 1:46:04 PM
Pre RBI Policy expectation quote by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC Below Quote On Pre RBI Policy expectations By Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager - Fixed Income, Quantum Mutual Fund   Since the last RBI policy, inflationary pressures have increased. Sharp jumps in vegetable prices have pushed expected inflation for the next 2-3 months above 6%. Cereal and pulse prices have also moved up. On this backdrop, the RBI should turn extra cautious at the upcoming MPC meeting.  We expect the RBI to remain on hold and maintain its policy s...
Pre RBI Policy expectation quote by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Pre RBI Policy expectation quote by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Source: Quantum AMC
4/08/2023 5:30:05 PM
Favorable backdrop for medium to long duration bonds - Comment by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund Below the comment On Favorable backdrop for medium to long duration bonds from Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income, Quantum Mutual Fund. Comment : The US Federal Reserve hiked its key interest rate by 25 basis points – taking the Fed Funds rate to 22 years high of 5.25%-5.50%. The statement suggests that future actions will be data dependent. If inflation move above the Fed’s expectation, they will hike rates. If it remains on the expected declining path, the...
Favorable backdrop for medium to long duration bonds - Comment by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Favorable backdrop for medium to long duration bonds - Comment by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Source: PR Agency
27/07/2023 3:16:17 PM
Debt Market Observer for July - 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund This quote by Howard Marks, aptly portrays the changes in market narratives over the last few months. In the US, the bond market narrative has been toggling between two extremes - “persistent high inflation” and “recession”. This has put the bond markets around the world on an emotional roller coaster. A month back, the US treasury futures were pricing for two or more rate cuts. Now, the expectation has shifted to two more rate hikes in 2023. This has not just pu...
Debt Market Observer for July - 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Debt Market Observer for July - 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Source: PR Agency
26/07/2023 6:28:08 PM
Debt Monthly Observer - July 23 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund. This quote by Howard Marks, aptly portrays the changes in market narratives over the last few months. In the US, the bond market narrative has been toggling between two extremes - “persistent high inflation” and “recession”. This has put the bond markets around the world on an emotional roller coaster. A month back, the US treasury futures were pricing for two or more rate cuts. Now, the expectation has shifted to two more rate hikes in 2023. This has not just pu...
Debt Monthly Observer - July 23 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund.
Debt Monthly Observer - July 23 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund.
Source: PR Agency
24/07/2023 3:43:07 PM
Monthly Fixed Income View- July 23 by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income Below The Monthly Fixed Income View- July 23 by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income   Markets in wariness The domestic bond market in June showed a divergent view from that in the month of May. The market turned increasingly cautious and gave up the hope of rate cut anytime soon. Global factors too turned against the bond market as resilient economy and strong labour market data compelled the US Fed to turn hawkish. Most of the month witnessed gradual upward movement ...
Monthly Fixed Income View- July 23 by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income
Monthly Fixed Income View- July 23 by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income
Source: PR Agency
10/07/2023 3:08:24 PM
Debt Monthly Observer for June 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC Monetary policy in India is entering a new phase.Over the past two reviews (April and June) the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to “pause” the rate hiking cycle. The decision to pause was supported by confluence of factors such as: * falling growth and inflation globally * slowing pace of rate hikes in advanced economies * sharp deceleration in domestic inflation * high real interest rates * and, pending passthrough of past rate hikes into the...
Debt Monthly Observer for June 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Debt Monthly Observer for June 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Source: PR Agency
27/06/2023 3:14:51 PM
Monthly Debt View for June - 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund. The optimism of April was brought forward inMay as well.The 10-year benchmark government bond yield went on a downward spiral, reaching 6.99% on 31st May 2023 against 7.12% at the end of April. However, most of this rally was observed in the first half of the month, while in the second half the bonds traded in a narrow range of 6.97% - 7.03%. Short term money market rates also fell during the month with the 3-month T-bill falling from 6.90% levels to ~6.76% by the end of the month. The yie...
Monthly Debt View for June - 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund.
Monthly Debt View for June - 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund.
Source: PR Agency
9/06/2023 4:53:58 PM
Comment on RBI Credit Policy By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund Below Comment on RBI Credit Policy By Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager - Fixed Income, Quantum Mutual Fund As widely expected, this was a do-nothing policy. Given the RBI has already lifted effective policy rate by 290 bps in the last financial year, it makes sense to wait for the past rate hikes to transmit through the real economy. The highlight of this policy was though the RBI’s emphasis on getting to the ultimate goal of 4% headline inflation. The governor aptly used the...
Comment on RBI Credit Policy By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Comment on RBI Credit Policy By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Source: Quantum Mutual Fund
8/06/2023 3:40:29 PM
Pre RBI Policy expectations By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund Below Quote On Pre RBI Policy expectations By Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager - Fixed Income, Quantum Mutual Fund We expect the RBI to maintain a status quo on rates. Most likely, we have already seen the last rate hike in February and the RBI will remain on an extended pause on policy rates in foreseeable future.   The key thing to watch in the upcoming monetary policy would be the RBI’s policy stance. Till the last year, the monetary policy was ultra-accommodativ...
Pre RBI Policy expectations By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Pre RBI Policy expectations By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Source: Quantum Mutual Fund
31/05/2023 5:15:43 PM
Debt Monthly Observer May 23 by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income Quantum Mutual Fund Indian bond market had a dream run in the last two and a half months. The 10-year Indian government bond (G-sec) yield fell by 50 basis points from 7.46% on February 28, 2023 to around 6.98% at the time of writing this report on May 18, 2023. The 10- year government bond yield is now below the levels prevailing at the start of the rate hiking cycle in May last year. Chart – I: Long term bond yields have fallen below the first-rate hike levels Past Performance may or may not su...
Debt Monthly Observer May 23 by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income Quantum Mutual Fund
Debt Monthly Observer May 23 by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income Quantum Mutual Fund
Source: PR Agency
24/05/2023 5:33:22 PM
Monthly Debt View for May 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC Below Monthly Debt View for May 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income, Quantum Mutual Fund Indian bonds yields came down sharply in April after the surprise pause in the rate hiking cycle (against market consensus expectation of 25bps hike) at start of the month. The downward momentum in yields was further boosted by the lower-than-expected inflation print for March which came in at 5.66% vs consensus estimate of ~5.9%. The 10-year benchmark government bond (Gsec) yield...
Monthly Debt View for May 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Monthly Debt View for May 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Source: Quantum Mutual Fund
8/05/2023 4:03:12 PM
Monthly Debt View for April 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC Below Monthly Debt View for April 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income, Quantum Mutual Fund Monthly Fixed Income Commentary In March, Indian bond yields easedby 5-20 basis points across the maturity curve. The benchmark 10-year government bond (Gsec) yield fell by 12 basis pointsto end the month at 7.31%. The rally in the Indian bond market was primarily in response to a sharp drop in the US treasury yields. The 10-year US treasury yield fell by 42 basis points in M...
Monthly Debt View for April 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Monthly Debt View for April 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Source: Quantum Mutual Fund
11/04/2023 3:13:15 PM
The governor made special efforts to sound hawkish by singling out this rate pause as onetime Says Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC Below is Comment on the RBI Policy By Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager-Fixed Income, Quantum AMC The hawkish tone in the February policy statement and surprise jump in Inflation in the last month had fuelled an expectation of a rate hike in this policy. Thus, a ‘no rate hike’ was a positive surprise. The governor made special efforts to sound hawkish by singling out this rate pause as onetime deviation from its broader monetary policy path. Despite the use of Phrases like &lsq...
The governor made special efforts to sound hawkish by singling out this rate pause as onetime Says Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
The governor made special efforts to sound hawkish by singling out this rate pause as onetime Says Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Source: Quantum AMC
6/04/2023 4:51:12 PM
Spread between Indian state, central government bond yields to widen in FY24 The spread between the yields of Indian state and central government bonds is likely to widen gradually in the new financial year, as state bond supply is expected to remain elevated, analysts said. India's union government is set to borrow a record 15.43 trillion rupees ($187.75 billion) in the financial year starting April 1, according to market participants. States' borrowing will also be at a record, they added. Citi expects states to borrow around 8.7 trillion rupees, and t...
Spread between Indian state, central government bond yields to widen in FY24
Spread between Indian state, central government bond yields to widen in FY24
Source: Reuters
1/04/2023 8:37:48 AM
Debt Monthly Observer for March 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC Yield Curve Inversion Ahead Indian money markets have tightened meaningfully over the last one and a half month. Interest rates on the short-term debt instruments like treasury bills, commercial papers, certificate of deposits, etc. shot up by 50-70 basis points (100 basis points = 1%) since the start of February 2023. While longer term bond yields moved up only marginally by 3-6 basis points. Table – I: Short-term yields moved up more than Longer term yields. Short-te...
Debt Monthly Observer for March 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Debt Monthly Observer for March 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Source: Quantum Mutual Fund
24/03/2023 4:48:59 PM
India's 364-day t-bill sells at yield above 10-year bond, inverts curve (March 8) India's 364-day treasury bill cutoff yield rose above that of the benchmark 10-year bond on Wednesday, on weaker-than-expected demand, briefly inverting the yield curve between the securities. The Reserve Bank of India sold 364-day notes at a 7.48% yield, the highest since October 2018, while the 10-year benchmark 7.26% 2032 bond yield saw a high of 7.4728%, and ended at 7.4547%. "There is limited appetite for the shorter end, which is resulting in consistent rise in T-Bill yie...
India's 364-day t-bill sells at yield above 10-year bond, inverts curve (March 8)
India's 364-day t-bill sells at yield above 10-year bond, inverts curve (March 8)
Source: Reuters
9/03/2023 2:08:29 PM
Monthly Debt View for March 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC Below Monthly Debt View for March 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income, Quantum Mutual Fund Bond yields moved up in February due to hawkish RBI commentary, higher than expected inflation print, and a sharp jump in the US treasury yield. Tightness in the money markets ahead of the financial year closing also dampened the market sentiment. The 10-year Indian government bond (Gsec) yield rose 11 basis points (1%=100 basis points) in February to close at 7.46% on Febr...
Monthly Debt View for March 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Monthly Debt View for March 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Source: Quantum Mutual Fund
9/03/2023 1:19:36 PM
Monthly Debt View for February 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC Below Monthly Monthly Debt View for February 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income, Quantum Mutual Fund Indian fixed income market has a dull start in 2023 so far. Bond yields had been in a narrow range with the 10-year G-sec trading between 7.25%-7.35% for most part of the last two months before closing the January month at 7.33%. On February 8, 2023, the 10 year G-sec was at 7.34% In the money market, yields moved higher materially due to continued tightening in the l...
Monthly Debt View for February 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Monthly Debt View for February 2023 by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Source: Quantum Mutual Fund
9/02/2023 4:47:18 PM
The RBI seems concerned about the sticky core Inflation Says Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC Below is Comment on the RBI Policy By Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager-Fixed Income, Quantum AMC The policy was broadly in line with the market expectations though we were expecting a pause in the rate hiking cycle this time. The RBI seems concerned about the sticky core Inflation while they are relatively more comfortable with the growth outlook. In the last 10 months, the repo rate has been hiked by cumulative 250 basis points and the short-term money market rates have moved up by over 300...
The RBI seems concerned about the sticky core Inflation Says Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
The RBI seems concerned about the sticky core Inflation Says Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Source: Quantum AMC
8/02/2023 4:44:59 PM
We expect the RBI will pause the rate hiking cycle in the February meeting Says Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC Below is Comment on Pre - RBI Monetary Policy By Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager-Fixed Income, Quantum AMC Inflation has come down substantially over the last three months and showing further downward momentum. External conditions have also eased with slower rate hikes in the US. RBI’s foreign exchange reserves have also increased over the last few months. All these developments Reserves should provide comfort to the RBI. We expect the RBI will pause the rate hiking cycle in the February...
We expect the RBI will pause the rate hiking cycle in the February meeting Says Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
We expect the RBI will pause the rate hiking cycle in the February meeting Says Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Source: Quantum AMC
3/02/2023 5:32:57 PM
Post Budget Analysis : The government has done a fine balancing act of boosting capital expenditure Says Pankaj Pathak,Quantum AMC Below is post budget comment by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income, Quantum AMC The government has done a fine balancing act of boosting capital expenditure while consolidating the fiscal deficit. The quality of government expenditure has improved consistently in the last three years with capex to total expenditure rising from 12% in FY21 to 22% in FY24. This should enhance future growth potential of the economy and should lead to higher revenues for the government over medium ...
Post Budget Analysis : The government has done a fine balancing act of boosting capital expenditure Says Pankaj Pathak,Quantum AMC
Post Budget Analysis : The government has done a fine balancing act of boosting capital expenditure Says Pankaj Pathak,Quantum AMC
Source: Quantum AMC
1/02/2023 6:06:24 PM
Debt Monthly Observer for December 2022 By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund We are well past the peak inflation of 2022. Yet, inflation continues to be the focal point of all the policy discussions and investment thesis in 2023. Central banks, though somewhat less aggressive than last year, remain in inflation-fighting mode. Markets are divided on whether to follow central banks in fighting inflation or fight the central bankitself against raising rates.   Amidst all this, inflation numbers have started showing some interesting trends. The headline CPI i...
Debt Monthly Observer for December 2022 By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Debt Monthly Observer for December 2022 By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Source: PR Agency
27/01/2023 3:42:39 PM
Government will most likely meet its fiscal deficit aim of 6.4% of GDP in FY23 aided by robust tax revenue growth Says Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC Below Note on Union Budget Expectations 2023-2024 by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income, Quantum AMC Government will most likely meet its fiscal deficit aim of 6.4% of GDP in FY23 aided by robust tax revenue growth and higher than budgeted growth in nominal GDP. The CSO, in its first advance estimates, has pegged the nominal GDP at Rs. 273 trillion as against budget estimate of Rs. 258 trillion. The higher denominator alone will reduce the fiscal deficit by 0.36% of GDP. Additi...
Government will most likely meet its fiscal deficit aim of 6.4% of GDP in FY23 aided by robust tax revenue growth Says Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Government will most likely meet its fiscal deficit aim of 6.4% of GDP in FY23 aided by robust tax revenue growth Says Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Source: PR Agency
13/01/2023 11:52:24 AM
Indian banks raise $2 billion via infrastructure bonds in 2 weeks Indian banks have raised $2 billion through infrastructure bonds over the last two weeks, anticipating a revival in private capital expenditure and increased government spending, analysts said. Two private lenders and one state-run bank have tapped the market to raise funds using these bonds in this period. Last week, the nation's largest lender State Bank of India raised 100 billion Indian rupees ($1.22 billion) in the largest such issue. "There is a revival in demand for infr...
Indian banks raise $2 billion via infrastructure bonds in 2 weeks
Indian banks raise $2 billion via infrastructure bonds in 2 weeks
Source: Reuters
9/12/2022 2:03:12 PM
The bond market will be disappointed with the hawkish commentary from the RBI Says Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC Below Comment on RBI Policy by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income, Quantum AMC The policy was broadly in line with the market expectation. The fact that the RBI kept the policy stance unchanged as ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ indicates the door is open for a further hike in the policy repo rate. The terminal rate expectation in the bond market has moved up to 6.5%.     Aggressive monetary tightening in the advanced economies will continue to weigh...
The bond market will be disappointed with the hawkish commentary from the RBI Says Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
The bond market will be disappointed with the hawkish commentary from the RBI Says Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Source: PR Agency
7/12/2022 1:59:27 PM
India cenbank says digital currency transactions to stay largely anonymous Transactions via central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) would remain anonymous "to a certain degree", a top official at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Wednesday, adding that technology and legal provisions can be explored to ensure that anonymity. India started the pilot project for its digital currency, or e-rupee, from Nov 1, when it was opened for initial trial. Then only being used by banks for settlements with each other, the scope of the project was expanded to...
India cenbank says digital currency transactions to stay largely anonymous
India cenbank says digital currency transactions to stay largely anonymous
Source: Reuters
7/12/2022 9:21:22 AM
Demand for moderate rate hike by RBI voiced With the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expected to revise upwards the interest rate on Wednesday, industry players are voicing out for a moderation. The MPC has hiked the interest rate in recent times by 190 basis points (bps) to contain the inflation. According to Shishir Baijal, Chairman and Managing Director, Knight Frank India, out of 190 bps repo rate hike, 105 bps rise has already been transmitted in the marginal cost of funds based lending rate...
Demand for moderate rate hike by RBI voiced
Demand for moderate rate hike by RBI voiced
Source: IANS
6/12/2022 4:40:13 PM
RBI Monetary Policy expectations By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC Below Comment on RBI Monetary Policy expectations By Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager-Fixed Income, Quantum AMC With a fall in commodity prices and some early signs of inflation coming down, the RBI may choose to slow down the pace of rate hikes. We expect the RBI to deliver a lower rate hike of 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting. Monetary policy often works with a long lag. The impact of past rate hikes and liquidity tightening measures is yet to be seen. Thus, there is a risk of ...
RBI Monetary Policy expectations By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
RBI Monetary Policy expectations By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Source: PR Agency
6/12/2022 2:12:24 PM
RBI Monetary Policy expectations By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC Comment on Pre RBI Policy By Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager-Fixed Income, Quantum AMC With a fall in commodity prices and some early signs of inflation coming down, the RBI may choose to slow down the pace of rate hikes. We expect the RBI to deliver a lower rate hike of 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting. Monetary policy often works with a long lag. The impact of past rate hikes and liquidity tightening measures is yet to be seen. Thus, there is a risk of over-tightening the mone...
RBI Monetary Policy expectations By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
RBI Monetary Policy expectations By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Source: PR Agency
5/12/2022 4:13:42 PM
Comment on RBI Policy by Pankaj Pathak,Quantum AMC Below Comment on RBI Policy by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income, Quantum AMC The policy was broadly in line with the market expectation. The fact that the RBI kept the policy stance unchanged as ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ indicates the door is open for a further hike in the policy repo rate. The terminal rate expectation in the bond market has moved up to 6.5%.     Aggressive monetary tightening in the advanced economies will continue to weigh...
Comment on RBI Policy by Pankaj Pathak,Quantum AMC
Comment on RBI Policy by Pankaj Pathak,Quantum AMC
Source: Quantum AMC
30/09/2022 1:26:04 PM
Comment on FED Reserve Announcement by Pankaj Pathak,Quantum AMC Below Comment on FED Reserve Announcement by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income, Quantum AMC With this level of hawkishness from the FED, it would be extremely difficult for the RBI to soften its tone on the domestic monetary policy anytime soon. India doesn't have that much of inflation problem but our external balances are not in the best shape. RBI's foreign exchange reserves are also dwindling at very fast pace.   Above views are of the author and not of ...
Comment on FED Reserve Announcement by Pankaj Pathak,Quantum AMC
Comment on FED Reserve Announcement by Pankaj Pathak,Quantum AMC
Source: Quantum AMC
22/09/2022 12:45:57 PM
Debt Monthly Observer for September 2022 By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund Indian Bonds Going Global Recently, there have been increasing conversations about the potential inclusion of Indian government bonds into the global bond indices.Indian bond market has defied the global trend of rising bond yields over the last two months on an expectation that India will be included in the JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Index and foreigners will rush to buy Indian bonds. India has one of the largest local currency government bond markets among emergingmarket econ...
Debt Monthly Observer for September 2022 By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Debt Monthly Observer for September 2022 By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Source: Quantum Mutual Fund
21/09/2022 5:38:40 PM
Experts predict volatility in rupee likely to persist in the short term  The dollar index is at a two-decade high, reflecting the ongoing interest rate hikes by US Fed and the continuing geo-political risks. Suman Chowdhury, Chief Analytical Officer, Acuite Ratings & Research, said: "Along with the expanded trade and current account deficit, such an environment has kept the pressure on the rupee which continues to hover around 80. While the FII outflows have been arrested, the uncertainty on capital flows and the volatility in rupee are likely to...
Experts predict volatility in rupee likely to persist in the short term
Experts predict volatility in rupee likely to persist in the short term
Source: IANS
10/09/2022 2:13:46 PM
Fixed Income Monthly View September 2022 By Mr. Pankaj Pathak,Quantum Mutual Fund Below Fixed Income Monthly View on September 2022 By Mr. Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income, Quantum Mutual Fund. Indian bond yields have been falling (bond prices rising) since mid-June 2022. The 10- year government bond yield peaked at 7.6% in June. It fell to 7.45% by June end, 7.32% by July end, 7.24% by August end, and at the time of writing on September 8, 2022, it is trading around 7.08%. The decline in bond yields started with a clamour of global growth slowdown and falli...
Fixed Income Monthly View September 2022 By Mr. Pankaj Pathak,Quantum Mutual Fund
Fixed Income Monthly View September 2022 By Mr. Pankaj Pathak,Quantum Mutual Fund
Source: Quantum Mutual fund
9/09/2022 2:57:35 PM
Fixed Income Monthly Commentary August 2022 By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund Below is Fixed Income Monthly Commentary August 2022 by Pankaj Pathak - Fund Manager - Fixed Income, Quantum Mutual Fund After 8 months of relentless rise, bond yields came down in July owing to a sharp fall in the global commodities prices and the US treasury yields. Weakening economic activity across advanced economies and an expectation of recession in the US and Europe triggered a sharp decline in commodity prices. It also fueled an expectation that the US federal reserve would...
Fixed Income Monthly Commentary August 2022 By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Fixed Income Monthly Commentary August 2022 By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Source: Quantum Mutual Fund
10/08/2022 4:24:28 PM
Benchmark bond yield rises just over 14 bps after repo rate hike Mumbai, Aug 5 (IANS) The yield on 10-year benchmark bond rose sharply by more than 14 basis points on Friday after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) increased repo rate by 50 basis points. The 10-year benchmark 6.54%-2032 bond yield ended at 7.3005 per cent, as against 7.1566 per cent close on the previous trading session. The bond market was extended by one-and-a-half hour to 5 p.m. due to late announcement of the weekly bond auction results. "The bond market sold off after the...
Benchmark bond yield rises just over 14 bps after repo rate hike
Benchmark bond yield rises just over 14 bps after repo rate hike
Source: IANS
5/08/2022 7:29:09 PM
Post RBI Policy comment by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund Below are Post RBI Policy comment by Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager-Fixed Income, Quantum Mutual Fund The 50 basis points rate hike was more or less as per the market’s estimate. But there was an expectation that the rate hiking cycle is coming close to its end. The RBI was fairly hawkish in its policy statement. At 5.4%, the repo rate is already above its pre-pandemic level. Yet, the RBI has maintained its policy stance as ‘withdrawal of accommodation’. This suggest...
Post RBI Policy comment by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Post RBI Policy comment by Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Source: Quantum Mutual Fund
5/08/2022 4:09:47 PM
Companies rushed to raise funds via CP to lock in lower rates ahead of RBI policy Ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy, most companies are rushing to short-term debt market to raise funds through commercial papers to lock-in lower rates because after policy announcement they expect rates on these instruments to rise further. According to the data compiled from market sources, companies raised Rs 37,920 crore through commercial papers (CP) since July 25, with highest being raised on July 27 worth Rs 13,425 crore. Small Industries Development ...
Companies rushed to raise funds via CP to lock in lower rates ahead of RBI policy
Companies rushed to raise funds via CP to lock in lower rates ahead of RBI policy
Source: IANS
4/08/2022 2:00:54 PM
Comment on Pre RBI Policy By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC Comment on Pre RBI Policy By Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager-Fixed Income, Quantum AMC Recession fear in the US and in other parts of the world have been somewhat positive for India. Sharp drop in commodity prices and a pickup in monsoon should ease some pressure from the RBI. It may, nonetheless, hike the repo rate by another 50 basis points just to withdraw the excess monetary accommodation provided during the pandemic. We expect the RBI’s commentary to soften a bit with an acknow...
Comment on Pre RBI Policy By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Comment on Pre RBI Policy By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum AMC
Source: Quantum AMC
1/08/2022 5:35:33 PM
RBI may hike 25-50 basis points at monetary policy meeting next week  The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) rate-setting committee is likely to hike 25-50 basis points in repo rate in the monetary policy meeting to be held between August 3-5, according to the estimates of various fund managers and economists. Economist and fund managers are of the mix view on the policy stance. Few are expecting stance will be change to 'Neutral', while some says 'Withdraw of accommodative stance could persist'. "We expect 40-50 bps hike in repo...
RBI may hike 25-50 basis points at monetary policy meeting next week
RBI may hike 25-50 basis points at monetary policy meeting next week
Source: IANS
30/07/2022 2:45:46 PM
Comment on U.S. Fed Announcement By Mr. Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund Comment on U. S. Fed Announcement By Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager, Quantum Mutual Fund The 75-basis points rate hike was widely expected and priced in the markets. The Fed chairman made it abundantly clear that Inflation remains the Fed’s top concern; so, rate hikes would continue. There was an indication that it can hike by another 75 basis points in the next FOMC meeting in September. Markets took comfort from the fact that the Fed’s statement was more balanced this time. T...
Comment on U.S. Fed Announcement By Mr. Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Comment on U.S. Fed Announcement By Mr. Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Source: Quantum Mutual Fund
28/07/2022 2:22:36 PM
Debt Monthly Observer for July 2022 By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund Debt Monthly Observer for July 2022 By Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income, Quantum Mutual Fund. Outlook Markets tend to pre-empt policy moves. Yields on medium to long term bonds had moved up over the last 12 months to price for the rising inflationary risks and potential rate hikes by the RBI. At current valuations, much of the potential rate hikes are already priced in the medium to long duration bonds. Thus, the bond market may not be too sensitive to RBI’s rate ...
Debt Monthly Observer for July 2022 By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Debt Monthly Observer for July 2022 By Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Source: Quantum Mutual Fund
20/07/2022 1:17:18 PM
Monthly Debt View : July 2022 By Mr. Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund Below is Fixed Income Monthly Commentary – July 2022 by Mr. Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income, Quantum Mutual Fund June 2022 was a month of two halves. The first half of the month was dominated by an ‘inflation’ narrative. Bond yields in India and globally moved up - pricing for higher inflation for a longer period and more aggressive central bank action. But we reached the peak of inflation scare by the middle of the month. In the second half, the pendulu...
Monthly Debt View : July 2022 By Mr. Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Monthly Debt View : July 2022 By Mr. Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Source: Quantum Mutual Fund
8/07/2022 12:06:12 PM
Debt Monthly Observer : June 2022 - Looking Beyond FED By Mr. Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund The US treasury secretary John Connally proclaimed at the G-10 meeting held in Rome in late 1971- “The dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem”. 50 years have passed since, but the movements in the US dollar continue to worry policymakers across the world. The US economy is about a quarter of the world GDP. The US Dollar is used for the settlement of over 40% of all international trades and it accounts for about 60% of total central bank reserves worldwide. Th...
Debt Monthly Observer : June 2022 - Looking Beyond FED By Mr. Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Debt Monthly Observer : June 2022 - Looking Beyond FED By Mr. Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
Source: Quantum Mutual Fund
22/06/2022 2:48:25 PM