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Volumes dip but recovery expected * Gujarat State Petronet (GUJS) reported a miss on our EBITDA estimate primarily due to lower-than-estimated transmission volume of 22.3mmscmd (our est. at 26.7mmscmd; -30% YoY, -9% QoQ). However, implied tariff was in line with our estimate at INR1,678/mscm (+25% YoY). * Spot LNG prices continue to fall to USD17/mmBtu for Mar’23 delivery from USD29.7/mmBtu in 3QFY23. A further decline in prices is expected to result in a volume recovery. We remai...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs. 339- Motilal Oswal
Gujarat State Petronet Ltd * GSPL has been consolidating in a zone (255-285) for past three months on the daily chart. * Recently, it has reached closer to the upper band of the same and likely to witness a breakout. * The current chart pattern combined with confirmation indicators are also confirming the same. * We thus suggest initiating fresh longs in the mentioned range. Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd CMP 282.85; Range 279-281; SL 270; Target 298  ...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.298 - Religare Broking
Demand environment remains subdued Gujarat State Petronet’s (GSPL) Q2FY23 performance was muted with EBITDA down 12% YoY (up 20% QoQ) to Rs4.4bn, and net earnings down 4% YoY at Rs3.1bn (I-Sec: Rs3.1bn EBITDA, Rs1.9bn PAT). The YoY dip in EBITDA was primarily due to 34% YoY (-17% QoQ) decline in transmission volumes to 24.6mmscmd, lowest in the past 16 quarters and below I-Sec estimate of 25.5mmscmd. Consolidated earnings, however, showed a relatively better trend led by stronger ear...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.383 - ICICI Securities
Volume declines sharply, but largely offset by ‘use or pay’ income GSPL’s 2QFY23 EBITDA was largely in line at INR 3.3bn vs. JMFe/consensus of INR 3.3bn/INR 3.1bn as a sharp decline in transmission volume was offset by higher transmission EBITDA margin. Transmission volume was 18% below JMFe at 24.6mmscmd (down 17% QoQ and down 35% YoY) due to the impact of high spot LNG prices on domestic LNG demand in CGD, Power and Refinery/Petchem segment. However, implied transmissio...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.325 - JM Financial Institutional Securities
Lower volumes offset by strong tariff * Gujarat State Petronet (GUJS) reported marginal beat on our EBITDA estimate at INR3.3b with volumes of 24.6mmscmd (our est. at 27mmscmd; -34% YoY, -17% QoQ) being offset by strong implied tariff at INR1,656/scm (16% ahead of our est., +19% YoY, +9% QoQ) during 2QFY23. * Volumes were hurt by the shutdown of ceramic units for over a month in 2QFY23. However, Spot LNG price in 3QFY23 to date has fallen to USD28.9/ mmBtu (v/s USD45/mmBtu in 2Q). A fur...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.319 - Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Earnings beat on higher Other Income; tariff review the key trigger * GSPL’s Q2FY23 S/A revenue/EBITDA/PAT stood at Rs4.35bn/Rs3.34bn/Rs3.14bn, down 26%/12%/4% YoY and down 10%/down 7%/up 33% QoQ. Revenue and EBITDA deviation was 2-3%, while PAT beat our estimate by 14%, on higher Other Income. * Gas transmission vol. fell 17% or by 4.9mmscmd QoQ to 24.6mmscmd (down 34% YoY, a 9% miss), with CGD sector offtake down 2.2mmscmd QoQ, power/refinery-petchem lower by 1.3/1.2mmscmd and o...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.325 - Emkay Global Financial Services
Weak demand, but tariff and expansion issues to be resolved over FY23E We met with the senior management of GSPL (Exec Director, gas business) for an update on business and the outlook ahead. Key takeaways: * Demand remains depressed: Demand prospects remain muted in Gujarat across sectors, be it power or CGD. As a result, contracted transmission flows have shrunk to <27mmscmd in Q2FY23-TD and are unlikely to see much traction in the near term. Lack of traction would be due to: 1) th...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.375 - ICICI Securities
The company reported standalone net profit of Rs 235.47 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2022 as compared to Rs 231.91 crore in the same period last year, registering a year-on-year growth of 1.54 per cent. Net revenue of the company declined moderately by 8.63 per cent at Rs 481.76 crore in April-June quarter of this fiscal as against Rs 527.24 crore in the corresponding period last year. During April-June quarter, operating expenses dropped by 20.44 per cent to Rs 121.58 crore from R...
Gujarat State Petronet Q1 net profit up 1.54% at Rs 235.47 cr
Lower demand for LNG impacts throughput Our view The 4QFY22 operating profit at Rs 3.06bn (‐11% YoY; ‐9% QoQ), stood above our but below street estimates. High LNG price environment during the quarter impacted consumption in Power, Steel and CGD sectors thereby leading to a 8.3% sequential drop in GUJS’ throughout. ‘Ship or Pay’ clauses ensured, stability in profitability to some extent, as Ebitda per unit clocked in at Rs 1.2...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.370 - Yes Securities
The company reported standalone net profit of Rs 202.05 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2022 as compared to Rs 206.26 crore in the same period last year, registering a year-on-year decline of 2.04 per cent. Net revenue of the company declined moderately by 6.86 per cent at Rs 433.12 crore in January-March quarter of this fiscal as against Rs 465.03 crore in the corresponding period last year. During January-March quarter, operating expenses increased by 5.07 per cent to Rs 126.95 cro...
GujaratStatePetronet Q4 net profit down 2.04% at Rs 202.05 cr
Domestic output growth drives profitability… About the stock: Gujarat State Petronet (GSPL) is a gas utility company with its transmission network and investment in CGD companies. * It operates a 2682-km transmission network in Gujarat as of March 2020 * Major portion of gas flowing through its network is contributed by refinery/petchem and CGD companies. Q1FY22 Results: GSPL’s results were driven by growth in transmission volume. * Revenue was up 13.5% Y...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.415 - ICICI Direct
Right at the dawn – tariff revision to (en)lighten * Over the last year and a half, as GUJS’s volumes reached 38-39mmscmd in 1HFY20, there have been continuous investor concerns over the more than optimal utilization rate of its High Pressure Pipeline (HPP) grid. With an adjustment in lieu of the new tax regime (of 25.17%), the tariff revision became a much larger concern, resulting in a huge de-rating in GUJS’s standalone value. * PNGRB has taken up tariff review of G...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.500 - Motilal Oswal
Domestic gas saves the day; will continue to do so Gujarat State Petronet’s (GSPL) Q1FY22 standalone EPS is up 16% YoY driven by rise in transmission volumes and fall in interest cost. Consolidated Q1 EPS is up 2.3x YoY on 8.1x YoY surge in EPS of subsidiary Gujarat Gas (GGL). Regassified LNG (RLNG) volumes transported in FY22E may be down 37% YoY due to high spot prices, but the domestic gas GSPL transports is set to jump 3.4x YoY ensuring FY22E volumes are up YoY (1% factored, b...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.453 - ICICI Securities
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.500 Volume recovery ahead of our estimate * GUJS reported a marginally higher (+5%) transmission volume than our estimate at 36.8mmscmd (+11% YoY and +9% QoQ), with implied tariff at INR1,282/mscm. Demand recovery from the refining/petchem segment offsets weak demand from CGDs, while demand from the Power sector recovered QoQ. * Volumes in Jul’21 have recovered further to 39.4mmscmd. The management expects it to improve from here on ...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd : Volume recovery ahead of our estimate - Motilal Oswal
MTF Stock Pick Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs. 420 - HDFC Securities TECHNICAL OBSERVATIONS * Stock price has broken out on the daily chart with higher volumes. * Short term trend of the Stock is positive where it is trading above its 5,20 and 50-day EMA * Oscillators like RSI and MFI is showing strength in the current uptrend * Plus, DI is trading above -DI while ADX line is placed above 25 Indicating momentum in the current up...
MTF Stock Pick Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs. 420 - HDFC Securities
Result Highlights‐ Ahead of estimates * 1QFY22 Profitability: The Operating profit and PAT for the quarter stood at Rs 3.7bn (+8.2% YoY; +8.8% QoQ) and Rs 2.3bn (+17% YoY; 12.2% QoQ), respectively, ahead of our and street estimates. The YoY and QoQ improvement in reported earnings stemmed from 10.6% YoY and 9% QoQ higher gas throughput. * Gas Sales: Total gas throughput stood sequentially higher at 36.8mmscmd (4Q: 33.8mmscmd), despite Covid‐2nd wave, a...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.400 - Yes Securities
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.368 Domestic gas set to save the day Gujarat State Petronet’s (GSPL) Q4FY21 standalone EPS was down 9% YoY, despite flat PBT, hit by 37% YoY rise in tax on a low base; 50% YoY fall in interest cost made up for volume fall. Consolidated Q4 PBT was up 25% YoY on 45% surge in PBT of subsidiary Gujarat Gas (GGL), but EPS was up just 9% YoY on tax jump. High spot LNG and covid are headwinds, but rise in domestic gas GGL uses will support its...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd : Domestic gas set to save the day - ICICI Securities
Near term volume weakness behind us * GUJS reported an in line 4QFY21. Transmission volumes at 33.8mmscmd, with implied tariff at INR1,277/mscm. Volumes were impacted by an abrupt spurt in spot LNG prices to USD20-30/mmbtu in Jan-Feb’21, which primarily impacted Power sector demand (-48% QoQ). * As per our interaction, current volumes stand ~36mmscmd. GUJS expects a revival of 1-2mmsmcd in volumes over the next couple of days from CGDs as lockdown restrictions are eased. The Mehsa...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.400 - Motilal Oswal
Result Highlights‐ In line with estimates * 4QFY21 Profitability: The Operating profit and PAT for the quarter stood at Rs 3.4bn (‐3.2% YoY; ‐13.6% QoQ) and Rs 2.1bn (‐8% YoY; ‐16% QoQ), respectively, broadly in line with our estimates. The YoY and QoQ drop in profitability was primarily on account of reduction in gas throughput as consumption dropped across segments (other than CGD). * 4QFY21 Gas Sales: Total gas throughput stood l...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.345 - Yes Securities
GSPC: Declining debt removes concern on GUJS * Gujarat State Petroleum (GUJS) has a 54% stake in Gujarat Gas (GUJGA), which amounts to a market capitalization of INR197b, much higher than GUJS’ m-cap at INR156b. * Major concerns for the above anomaly have been: a) expected decline in tariffs of GUJS due to over-utilization of the High Pressure grid, and b) concerns over the usage of cash. * Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation (GSPC), the parent company of GUJS with a 37.6% sta...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.400 - Motilal Oswal
Subsidiary Gujarat Gas drives strong Q3 growth Gujarat State Petronet’s (GSPL) Q3FY21 standalone EPS was up 11% YoY driven by rise in volumes. Consolidated Q3 EPS jumped 48% YoY due to 99% YoY surge in EPS of subsidiary Gujarat Gas (GGL). GSPL’s transmission volumes are set to fall in Q4 due to surge in spot LNG price in Jan’21. Factoring-in the fall has led to cut in standalone FY21E EPS by 3%. We estimate GSPL’s FY22E volumes to be up 10% YoY driven by domestic ga...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.316 - ICICI Securities
Muted quarter Our BUY recommendation on Gujarat State Petronet with a TP of INR 271 is premised on the following: (1) robust transmission volume (+12% CAGR over FY21-23E to 49mmscmd) as benign spot LNG prices should continue to drive volume growth from industrial customers and encourage RIL to continue using LNG. This should translate into growth in standalone EBITDA and APAT by 10% and 12% CAGR to INR 44bn and INR 20bn in FY23E; (2) compelling valuation at 6.8x FY22E EPS, considering the ...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.271 - HDFC Securities
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