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Adding to the negative sentiment in stock markets, the rupee depreciated to near a 10-month low at 83.14, while the FII outflow of almost of Rs 10,000 crore in August so far also led to selling at higher levels, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Retail Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Domestic equities continued to witness pressure amid weak global cues. While Nifty opened lower and remained in the negative territory throughout the session to close with a loss of 100 p...
Rupee at 10-month low adds to selling pressure in stock market
The dollar pushed the yen deeper into intervention territory on Thursday as a resilient U.S. economy underscored the need for higher-for-longer interest rates, while a strikingly ultra-dovish Bank of Japan struggled to defend its policy stance. The Australian dollar tumbled after the country's July employment unexpectedly fell while its jobless rate ticked up more than expected. The Aussie sank nearly 1% after the release of the figures, dragging the New Zealand dollar alongside it....
Dollar shines on US economic resilience; Aussie tumbles after employment data
The dollar was steady on Friday as traders wagered that the Federal Reserve is done with rate hikes after data showed U.S. consumer prices increased moderately in July, while the yen was flirting with the psychologically key 145 level. The Japanese yen eased 0.10% to 144.89 per dollar in early Asian hours, its lowest since June 30, when it also briefly breached 145 per dollar level, stoking investor fears of another round of interventions from the Japanese authorities. Japan intervened ...
Dollar steady after CPI data bolsters Fed pause bets; yen nears 145
The credit rating downgrade of the US by Fitch resulted in gold prices gaining slightly, said a senior official of Geojit Financial Services. “Gold prices slightly gained after the US government’s credit rating was downgraded by Fitch. Usually, economic uncertainties and dollar volatility can have significant impacts on the price and demand for gold as it is considered a safe-haven asset. The rating downgrade of the world’s largest economy tends investors to park their m...
Gold gained on Fitch downgrade US credit rating
Below the quote on the IT sector outlook post the FOMC meeting from Vinod TP, Research analyst at Geojit Financial Services. Despite muted Q1 results in the IT sector, optimism is slowly arising after the FOMC's recent rate hike. The U.S. Fed hinted at a soft landing of the economy as against the earlier expectation of a recession. Moving forward, the Fed indicated a reduced likelihood of another rate hike this year due to expectations of easing inflation. Conversely, t...
Quote on IT Sector outlook post the FOMC meeting from Vinod TP, Geojit Financial Services
The dollar hovered close to a two-week high versus the euro on Wednesday, while the yen consolidated near the middle of its range this month as traders awaited crucial policy decisions from the nations' central banks this week. The Australian dollar slid after benign inflation data suggested the Reserve Bank of Australia would forgo a rate hike next week. The U.S. dollar index - which measures the currency against six major peers, but is heavily weighted toward the euro - edged 0.06% h...
Dollar near two-week high as Fed decision looms; Aussie falls
Gold prices rose on Tuesday on a weaker dollar, while traders awaited a widely anticipated rate hike along with monetary policy clues from the U.S. Federal Reserve over the next two days. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,961.74 per ounce by 0358 GMT, while U.S. gold futures climbed 0.1% to $1,963.40. The dollar index edged lower from its near-two-week peak, supporting gold as a weaker dollar makes bullion cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. [USD/] "After a four-day decline, I ...
Gold gains on weaker dollar, traders focus on Federal Reserve decision
The dollar was steady on Friday as data pointed to U.S. labour market resilience that could lead the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer, while the yen strengthened after Japan's core consumer inflation re-accelerated in June. Central bank meetings from Europe, Japan and the United State are due next week, with investors parsing through data to better gauge monetary policy paths they will likely chart. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.08% to 139.97 per dollar aft...
Dollar firms, yen steady after Japan inflation holds above BOJ target
Gold prices climbed on Thursday to a nine-week peak on a weaker dollar and bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve might soon hit pause on its interest rate hiking cycle. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $1,987.18 per ounce by 0325 GMT, its highest since mid-May. U.S. gold futures were up 0.4% to $1,988.80. "We are bullish gold from here as we are likely to reach the end of Fed rate hikes at the next FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting (26 July)," said Baden Moore, head of carbon ...
Gold hits 9-week high on weaker dollar, hopes of Fed rate pause
The dollar wobbled near an over one-year low against its major peers on Tuesday, as investors awaited fresh catalysts to gauge if the greenback has further downside in the wake of last week's cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation report. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, dipped slightly to 99.84 in early Asia trade, after having tumbled to its lowest since April 2022 on Friday. The index also clocked its worst week of 2023 la...
Dollar teeters near one-year low; euro scales 17-month peak
Oil prices dipped for a second session on Monday after Libya resumed production over the weekend while China, the world's largest crude importer, is expected to release economic data showing that its post-pandemic recovery is fizzling out. Brent crude futures fell 57 cents, or 0.7%, to $79.30 a barrel by 0055 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $74.90 a barrel, down 52 cents, or 0.7%. Prices softened after both benchmarks last week notched a third straight week of ga...
Oil slips after Libya resumes output, China data eyed
Gold prices were set on Friday for their biggest weekly gain since April, after rallying close to a one-month high, as markets scale back expectations of further U.S. interest rate hikes, sending the dollar to its lowest in more than one year. Spot gold held steady at $1,961.79 per ounce by 0319 GMT, and up nearly 2% for the week. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,965.80. Making gold less expensive for overseas investors, the dollar index touched its lowest level since April 2022....
Gold prices set for best week since April on weaker dollar
The dollar held tight ranges on Friday as investors awaited a key U.S. jobs report and weighed the prospect of higher-for-longer Federal Reserve interest rates against the economic growth outlook. The closely watched nonfarm payrolls report is due later on Friday, where expectations are for the U.S. economy to have added 225,000 jobs in June. The release follows data on Thursday that showed private payrolls surged last month while the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployme...
Dollar steadies as US economy stays resilient; eyes on nonfarm payrolls
The dollar was broadly higher on Thursday, after the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting cemented market expectations for a rate hike this month. In Asia, the yen hovered near the key 145 per dollar level that spurred intervention by Japanese authorities last September, while a faltering economic recovery in China continued to put downward pressure on the yuan. Minutes of the Fed's June meeting released on Wednesday showed that the vast majority o...
Dollar firms on rate hike views after Fed minutes, yen treads water
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday as some traders bet that recent weak U.S. economic data may prompt the Federal Reserve to rethink its rate-hike trajectory, while also awaiting further cues from the minutes of the central bank's last meeting. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,928.09 per ounce by 09:31 a.m. EDT (1331 GMT), with trading volumes likely thinned by a U.S. holiday. U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% to $1,935.90. "Weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data released on Monday, ...
Gold gains in thin holiday trade as investors seek more Fed cues
Gold prices were flat on Tuesday in thin trading due to a U.S. holiday, while traders awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve's minutes of the June meeting on Wednesday for more clues on its interest rate hike path ahead. Spot gold was little changed at $1,921.39 per ounce by 0241 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were flat at $1,929.10. Trading volume could be light due to a U.S. holiday. "Right now the headwinds for gold are the expectations of a further 50 bps tightening, more liquid...
Gold listless as investors wait for Fed`s June meeting minutes
Below the quote on FOMC Update: • As expected, the Fed has kept the rates unchanged at 5-5.25%. A 90bps fall in headline inflation possibly comforted Fed to keep policy rates unchanged. However, sticky core inflation at 5.3% might prompt Fed to keep the option to hike open at the moment. • The surprising factor was the dot plot signaling 2 more rate hikes in 2023. • On rate cuts, Powell mentioned that rate action is unlikely until inflation declines. As already fact...
Debt Market commentary by LIC Mutual Fund CIO (Debt) Mr. Marzban Irani on FOMC
Gold was set on Friday for its biggest weekly gain in nearly two months, as hopes for a pause in the Federal Reserve's tightening campaign bolstered bullion's appeal amid progress on the U.S. debt-ceiling deal. Spot gold was flat at $1,978.74 per ounce, as of 0241 GMT. U.S. gold futures were also little changed, at $1,996.20. Bullion has gained 1.7% so far in the week, heading for its best week since the week ended April 7. Current gold market sentiment remains constructive, ...
Gold eyes best week in nearly 2 months on Fed pause hopes
Below are Views on Chairs-Fed Policy by Vivek Goel, Co-founder and Joint Managing Director, Tailwind Financial Services Limited “The US Fed in their latest FOMC hiked rates by 25bps which was broadly in line with expectations even though there was some uncertainty if they might instead opt to pause in light of recent turmoil in the banking sector. However, with the messaging on remaining "committed to restoring price stability" they chose to go with a 9t...
A Tale of Two Chairs-Fed Policy views from Mr. Vivek Goel, Joint Managing Director, Tailwind Financial Services
* The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its policy Fed Funds rate by 25bp to 4.75-5% (as we had expected Link), and retained its schedule of quantitative tightening (monthly reductions of its bond portfolio). But it also emphasised that recent turmoil in the banking system will necessarily tighten credit conditions. Since the degree of this banking-related credit tightening is uncertain, future policy actions will be data-dependent. The FOMC’s median forecast for the Fed Fu...
Economy Observer : FOMC hikes 25bp (as expected) ; its dot plots suggest another 25bp hike in CY23 and mild recession ahead By ICICI Securities
Below is Quote on FOMC Monetary Policy Update By Ms. Heena Naik, Research Analyst - Currency, Angel One Ltd In the recent FOMC Monetary Policy, the US Feds raised its key rate by 25 bps as widely expected. The committee projected at least one additional interest rate increase of 25 basis points by the end of 2023. The Fed's dropped the forward guidance, mentioning that “some additional policy firming may be appropriate”, instead ...
FOMC Monetary Policy Update By Heena Naik, Angel One Ltd
The dollar rose broadly on Thursday as growth concerns about the U.S. economy drove demand for the safe-haven greenback, while the yen renewed its ascent as investors doubled down on bets that the Bank of Japan would shift away from its yield curve control policy. Weak U.S. data released on Wednesday showed that U.S. retail sales fell by the most in a year in December and manufacturing output recorded its biggest drop in nearly two years, stoking fears that the world's largest ec...
Dollar rises on safe haven bids; yen regains footing
Recession inevitable amid Fed hawkishness; inflation will wane and rate cuts are likely in H2CY23 * The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its policy Fed Funds rate by 50bp to 4.25-4.5% as expected at its Dec’22 meeting – following four consecutive hikes of 75bp each. During CY22, the US policy rate has consequently risen by 425bp, the biggest increase in a single year since the Fed Funds rate became the formal policy target in 1993. The Fed also reaffirmed that it wou...
Recession inevitable amid Fed hawkishness; inflation will wane and rate cuts are likely in H2CY23 By ICICI Securities
The dollar strengthened across the board on Thursday after the Federal Reserve said it would deliver more interest rate hikes next year and before meetings of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. The euro fell 0.67% to $1.0611, and sterling lost 0.9% to $1.2316, both falling from six-month highs hit this week, while the dollar climbed 0.9% on the Japanese yen to 136.69. The dollar was also stronger versus the Swiss franc and Norwegian crown after their respective central b...
Dollar gains after Fed meet, BOE and ECB in focus
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Asking for a friend. Because it is not often 10-year yields suddenly drop 11 basis points, break a chart big barrier and hit three-month lows for no discernible reason. Some point a finger at the downward revision to Q3 U.S. labour costs. But Q3 is ancient history and only GDP nerds understand labour cost indices. Yes, China trade data were truly awful, but both U.S November payrolls and the services ISM surpr...
Marketmind: So what's up with Treasuries?
The dollar edged up on Thursday, supported by a push higher in U.S. Treasury yields, as investors weighed the outlook for Federal Reserve policy against the chances that high interest rates could lead to a recession. Next week brings a raft of major central bank decisions, including those from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The key question for traders and investors is whether inflation has reached a peak, giving policymakers more scope to delive...
Dollar edges up, investors weigh outlooks for rates and economy
Gold prices were listless on Wednesday as investors eyed next week's U.S. Federal Reserve meeting for confirmation on its interest rate hike trajectory, with a firmer dollar also subduing any gains in bullion. Spot gold was little changed at $1,771.89 per ounce by 0951 GMT. U.S. gold futures ticked 0.1% higher to $1,784.30. "The key driver for gold just now is market sentiment towards the U.S. dollar and by extension that is looking to gauge both the outlook for rate increases ...
Gold stalls as traders brace for Fed verdict
Below is Views on FOMC By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist Emkay Global Financial Services * High rates dominating US housing market Home prices are declining, but housing affordability has worsened as the surge in mortgage prices puts homeownership increasingly out of reach. Fears of a housing bubble bursting and comparisons to the GFC are not warranted, however, and the current dynamics suggest that the US housing market has returned ...
Views on FOMC: We believe that shelter inflation strength will lag and linger Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global
Gold prices eased on Friday as the U.S. dollar regained some ground, but expectations of less aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve set bullion up for a small weekly gain. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,753.06 per ounce by 1044 GMT, coming off a one-week high hit earlier in the session. Bullion was up 0.2% this week so far. U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $1,753.80. The dollar firmed 0.1%, making greenback-priced gold more expensive for overseas buyers. The curr...
Gold subdued on dollar advance; eyes modest weekly gain
The U.S. dollar climbed versus the yen and stayed firm against other major peers on Tuesday as more Federal Reserve officials made the case for even tighter U.S. monetary policy. The greenback edged up against sterling and hovered more than 1% above its two-month trough to the euro after Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard on Monday echoed weekend comments by Fed Governor Christopher Waller that interest rates need to keep rising to battle inflation, although potentially at a slower pace. The ...
Dollar rebounds as Fed officials say hikes to continue; yen slumps
Below is Views on FOMC By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist Emkay Global Financial Services FOMC: Did someone say Pivot? Anyone looking for a “superficial pivot” in language got what they wanted, with key caveats. Along with the 75bps hike yesterday to 3.75-4%, the post-meeting statement opened the door to possibly stepping down the size of the next hike, if the data cooperate – with Fed acknowledging that past hikes and their lags in transmission will be ...
Views on FOMC: Along with the 75bps hike yesterday to 3.75-4%, opened the door to possibly stepping down the size of the next hike Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global
World shares slipped and the dollar and bond yields jumped on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve shifted the outlook on its tightening from short and sharp to long and high, and as Europe braced for Britain's biggest rate hike in decades. European shares opened nearly 1% lower after even heavier falls Asia and as a 1.25% surge in the dollar marked its biggest rise since late September. [/FRX] Investors had initially been cheered that the U.S. Fed at least opened the door to a s...
Shares fall as Fed not close to done, BoE up next
Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday helped by a weaker dollar, while investors held back from making large bets ahead of a widely expected 75-basis-point rate-hike decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Spot gold edged up 0.1% at $1,649.00 per ounce by 10:45 a.m. ET (1445 GMT), while U.S. gold futures was also up 0.1% at $1,651.70. The dollar index was down 0.1% against its rivals, making gold less expensive for overseas investors. [USD/] The anticipation of the FOMC (Federal Open...
Gold firms as dollar eases in run-up to Fed verdict
The dollar advanced on Monday after strong consumer spending data pointed to persistent underlying inflation pressure, cooling bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve could signal a slowdown in its aggressive monetary policy tightening campaign. The greenback moved broadly higher in Asia trade, particularly against the Japanese yen, rising more than 0.5% and pushing above the 148 yen level. The yen last traded 148.08 per dollar, further pressured by the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) decision to ...
Dollar up as data suggests Fed hawks will stay in control; yen fragile
? The FOMC raised its policy rate by 75bp for the third consecutive time, taking it to 3- 3.25% (or a central rate of 3.125%), as expected, at its Sep’22 meeting. More importantly, FOMC members’ economic projections had a median forecast for the Fed Funds rate of 4.4% by end-2022, implying further rate hikes by 125bp at its subsequent two meetings this year. This is an implicit acknowledgement of its policy error, which the FOMC now seeks to correct by front-end loading its rate h...
The Economy Observer - FOMC Implicitly Acknowledges its Policy Error; to frontload further rate hikes - ICICI Securities
Lakshmi Iyer, Chief Investment Officer (Debt) & Head Products, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company said that investors in a current scenario could look at target maturity funds from a passive ownership standpoint as well as funds like medium duration and dynamic bond funds. Here are the excerpts from the interview: Q: How do you see bond markets and yields if a long-awaited global index inclusion fails to take place once again? A: We expect the announcement of index i...
In such a scenario, investors could look at target maturity funds: Lakshmi Iyer
The dollar rose against major currencies on Monday, trading within narrow ranges, ahead of a slew of central bank meetings this week led by the Federal Reserve, which is likely to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points (bps). Volume was light overall, with markets in London and Tokyo closed for public holidays. World stock markets remained on edge, however, and the dollar maintained its firm tone, given expectations that the Fed would maintain its aggressive tightening path unt...
U.S. dollar sails higher as markets price in hefty Fed rate hike
The dollar remained firm below a two-decade high versus major peers on Tuesday, as investors braced for the Federal Reserve to continue its aggressive interest-rate-hiking campaign to rein in overheated inflation. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six counterparts, was little changed at 109.53, stable for the moment after pulling back from as high as 110.79 earlier this month, a level not seen since June 2002. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is extremely sen...
Dollar firm as markets brace for another big Fed rate hike
The euro jumped to a more than three-week peak versus the dollar on Monday and sterling rose to the highest this month as European Central Bank officials pushed the case for further aggressive monetary tightening. The greenback idled not far from a two-week low ahead of key U.S. inflation data this week that might allow the Federal Reserve to consider whether to slow the pace of rate hikes at its Sept. 21 policy meeting. The rate-sensitive Japanese yen found its footing around the mid-1...
Euro jumps amid hawkish ECB signals, dollar heavy before U.S. CPI
The U.S. dollar was up against the yen on Wednesday after data showed a surprise pickup in the U.S. services industry in July, while hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials this week also supported the greenback. The Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing PMI rebounded last month from June. The increase ended three straight monthly declines. It also showed supply bottlenecks and price pressures eased, and backed up the view that the economy is not in a recession...
Dollar climbs as Fed officials suggest more rate hikes to come
Comment on U. S. Fed Announcement By Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager, Quantum Mutual Fund The 75-basis points rate hike was widely expected and priced in the markets. The Fed chairman made it abundantly clear that Inflation remains the Fed’s top concern; so, rate hikes would continue. There was an indication that it can hike by another 75 basis points in the next FOMC meeting in September. Markets took comfort from the fact that the Fed’s statement was more balanced this time. T...
Comment on U.S. Fed Announcement By Mr. Pankaj Pathak, Quantum Mutual Fund
FED leveraging on strong job market to go for soft landing FOMC raised interest rates by 75 bps on expected lines taking its benchmark rate to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%. Further to the announcement, FED gave the future interest rate guidance in the range of 3% to 3.5%. Hike of 75 bps was already discounted by markets but it’s the guidance which cheered US markets which closed higher; DOW (+1.37%), NASDAQ (+4.26%). FED Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the significance of price stab...
FED leveraging on strong job market to go for soft landing - Religare Broking
The US Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate by a half percentage point, marking the sharpest rate hike since 2000, as it takes more aggressive steps to rein in the highest inflation in four decades. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's policy-making body, decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 0.75 to 1 per cent, the Fed said in a statement issued on Wednesday after a two-day policy meeting. According to the statement, the co...
US Fed raises interest rates by half point, sharpest hike in 22 yrs
The equity market is likely to kick off next week on a sombre note after a sharp fall in the US market overnight and the focus will shift to the outcome of the US' Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, said financial advisory firm Swastika Investmart. FOMC meeting is crucial amid record inflation and growth worries, it said. The meeting is reportedly scheduled for Wednesday. The Indian equity market ended on a weak note for the third week in a row, however, the losses wer...
Equity market awaits US Fed meet for fresh cues, says Swastika Investmart
Below is Perspective note on FOMC By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services FOMC: Hopeful Hawks ■ The Fed delivered a well-telegraphed 25bp hike, but the rest of the communications were more hawkish with a heavy focus on achieving price stability. Everything else from the FOMC—the dots, the post-meeting statement, balance sheet policy—probably skewed a little more hawkish than expectations. Chair Powell pledged that the Fed would be ...
Perspective note on FOMC By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
The recent hawkish narrative from key central banks in the developed economies along with uncertainty with respect to Omicron has resulted in $ 3.7 billion portfolio outflow from the Indian financial markets in December 2021 so far (till December 28). This happens to be the largest portfolio outflow on a monthly basis in the pandemic era beginning April 2020, Acuite Ratings said. With the current account deficit facing risk of a higher expansion than anticipated, our projection of FY22 BoP...
December portfolio outflow of $ 3.7 bn from India largest in pandemic era
The December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve confirmed a hawkish policy pivot, announcing a doubling of the pace of the taper to $30 billion per month, setting asset purchases on course to end in mid-March, according to a report by Morgan Stanley. At the same time, the FOMC statement effectively checked off the inflation side of the liftoff test in the forward guidance, such that now the timing of liftoff depends only on labour market condition...
US Fed projects 3 rate hikes in 2022
Below is quote on FOMC Policy Outcome by Heena Naik, Research Analyst - Currency, Angel One Ltd - US Fed doubles the pace of taper to $30 billion a month. - Signals three hikes in 2022 & another three hikes in 2023 - Fed median forecast shows three hikes in 2022, three in 2023 - Interest rates were kept unchanged at 0-0.25 percent - They expect to keep rates at 0 until the US reaches full employment - Faster taper allows the Fed to add...
Quote on FOMC Policy Outcome By Heena Naik, Angel One Ltd
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