Weekly Sectoral Outlook 12th January 2026 by GEPL Capital Ltd
NIFTY 50 : 25683.30 weekly change (-2.45%)
INFERENCE & EXPECTATION
* The Nifty hit a fresh all-time high on Monday but reversed sharply, closing the week down nearly 2.5% marking its worst weekly fall since September 2025 and erasing the gains of the past three weeks. On the daily chart, Nifty has slipped below both its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, with the 50-day support, which had held since October 2025, now broken. On the weekly chart, the MACD has exhibited a bearish crossover, reinforcing the near-term downside risk. The sharp reversal comes amid heightened geopolitical concerns, as Trump’s proposed 500% tariffs on companies continuing business with Russia have triggered cautious sentiment among traders, suggesting a risk-averse environment in the near term.
* For Traders: Fresh short positions may be considered below 25600 with downside targets of 25450 and 25300. A stop-loss at 25800 on closing basis is advised.
* For Investors: Accumulation is recommended on dips towards 25500–25000 levels, with a medium-term upside target of 28600, offering substantial potential.
NIFTY INDIA DEFENCE: 7891.65 Weekly change (+1.35%)
Observation
* The Nifty India Defence index is currently forming a bullish flag-and -pole continuation pattern on the weekly timeframe, indicating a phase of volatility contraction following a sharp uptrend. Such consolidation is considered healthy, as it allows the prevailing trend to cool off before potentially resuming its prior upward momentum.
* The index has also successfully retested its 50-week EMA, highlighting a bullish mean reversion and reinforcing constructive price action.
* From a momentum perspective, the stochastic oscillator has exhibited a bullish divergence, wherein prices have formed lower bottoms while the indicator has registered higher bottoms. Additionally, the stochastic has turned up from the oversold zone, suggesting improving momentum and validating the ongoing price structure.
Inference & Expectations
* Our analysis suggests the index is poised for an upward move, with a potential target of 9280 and 10000. However, a decisive break below the 7285 level would invalidate the bullish outlook.
NIFTY MEDIA : 1425 weekly change (-2.57%)
Observation
* The Nifty Media Index continues to stay in a downtrend, with the monthly chart showing a clear lower-top and lower-bottom structure since 2022, indicating prolonged weakness.
* On the weekly timeframe, the index continues to trade decisively below its key 12-week and 26-week EMAs, reflecting weak trend strength and a clear lack of sustained buying interest.
* The daily chart further validates the bearish setup, as the index continues to form lower tops and faces repeated rejection near the 50- day EMA, indicating selling pressure at higher levels.
* Momentum indicators reinforce this negative bias. The weekly MACD remains in bearish territory, pointing toward a continuation of downside momentum.
* On a relative performance basis, the index has been a consistent underperformer over an extended period, highlighting structural weakness compared to the broader market.
Inference & Expectations
* Our analysis points to a bearish outlook, with potential downside targets at 1285 & 1200.
* However, a sustained move above the 1520 level would invalidate this bearish view.
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