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Below the Quote on Weekly Note by Mr. Ajit Mishra, SVP - Research, Religare Broking Ltd

The markets remained under pressure for the third consecutive week, losing nearly half a percent as the corrective phase continued. While the benchmark indices initially showed signs of recovery, persistent selling by FIIs and a lackluster start to the earnings season weighed on sentiment, turning the bias negative. A recovery in banking majors during the final session helped pare some losses, but both the Nifty and Sensex closed lower, at 24,854.05 and 81,224.7, respectively.

Sector performance was mixed, with banking, financials, and realty posting decent gains, while auto, metals, and FMCG sectors were the top losers. The broader indices reflected a similar trend, as the midcap index lost nearly a percent while smallcap closed slightly positive.

In the absence of any major triggers, market participants will focus on upcoming earnings for direction. First, they will react to the results of banking heavyweights such as HDFC Bank and Kotak Bank. Later, companies like ITC, Hindustan Unilever, ICICI Bank, BPCL, HPCL, and Ultratech Cement will also announce their earnings. On the economic front, key high-frequency data such as the HSBC Composite PMI, HSBC Manufacturing PMI, and HSBC Services PMI are expected.

Despite the ongoing positivity in the US markets, the Indian markets have been largely unresponsive, a divergence likely to persist due to continued foreign fund outflows. Any change in the fund flow pattern would also be on the participants’ radar.

Technically, Nifty may see some consolidation following three weeks of declines, but the outlook is likely to stay negative unless it decisively reclaims the 25,150 level. A sustained move above this could fuel a rebound, pushing the index towards the 25,500 zone. On the downside, the 10-day exponential moving average (DEMA), currently around 24,470, serves as key support, and a break below this level could lead to a drop toward the 24,000 zone.Sector-wise, IT, pharma, and metals continue to show strength despite the mixed trends, and the recent bounce in select banking stocks is promising, though its sustainability remains crucial. We recommend maintaining positions on both sides, with a focus on risk management by adopting a hedged approach.

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