Weekly Commodity Report by Axis Securities Ltd
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* Spot Gold scaled a fresh record just over $2,500 as recent market volatility saw investors seek refuge in the yellow metal – prices were up over 3% which was the best weekly gain since April. Disappointing numbers on the US housing market last week reinforced bets that the Fed is on track to move lower in September, helping support prices. This week, the metal’s fate will be driven by jobless claims data, manufacturing PMI and the closely watched Jackson Hole symposium that begins on Thursday for guidance from the Fed Chair, but technically the trend remains supportive, for now.
* Spot silver rallied over 5% last week, marking its strongest performance since early July. The metal’s rise to around $29 per ounce, was driven by a softer U.S. dollar and heightened concerns over potential conflict between Iran and Israel. Additionally, signs of cooling inflation in the U.S. reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Recent data indicated that both producer and consumer prices in the U.S. increased less than expected in July, with the annual headline CPI reaching its lowest reading since March 2021.
* Nymex crude oil slipped over 4% from its recent swing high of $80.16, ending last week flat. The decline came as Qatar urged Iran to deescalate tensions with Israel during ongoing Gaza cease-fire talks. The drop in oil prices also reflects broader concerns about weakening demand from China, the world’s top oil importer. Additionally, both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have lowered their oil demand growth forecasts due to China’s economic softness. This week, attention will be focused on Crude inventory data and Flash PMI figures, which may influence crude oil prices.
* COMEX copper gained 3.8% last week, marking its best performance since July. The surge in copper prices was driven by a strike at the world’s largest copper mine - Escondida in Chile - which accounts for 5% of global copper supply. If the strike continues for an extended period, it could significantly disrupt the supply chain and potentially drive copper prices even higher. Additionally, this week’s U.S. new home sales data and Fed speeches may further influence copper prices.
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