US consumer confidence unexpectedly rose for the first time in four months in November - HDFC Securities
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Market Roundup
* The Indian rupee is expected to open slightly higher following the overnight decline in the greenback against major trading currencies in the expectation that the Fed is done with rate hikes and will be able to ease policy next year. Fed swaps are now anticipating over 100 basis points ofrate cuts by the end of 2024.
* On Tuesday, spot USDINR little changed at 83.34 and the benchmark 10-year yields little changed at 7.28%. Implied opening from forwards suggeststhe spot may start trading around 83.28. The pair is expected to remain under pressure following riskon sentiments and stronger Asian currencies. Spot USDINR has support at 83.10 and resistance at 83.50.
* The dollar slid to the weakest level since early August as swap traders ramped up bets the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates as early as May. The Dollar Spot Index fell for a fifth day asfears of a recession and dovish Fed commentary spurred investors to wager the central bank will have to reverse its most aggressive tightening cycle since the 1980s.
* At the Fed, Christopher Waller said he was increasingly confident policy is “well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%.” Michelle Bowman reiterated that she expects more hikes to reach the price target “in a timely way,” but her comments weremore equivocalthan in the past.
* US consumer confidence unexpectedly rose for the first time in four months in November, with the index climbing to 102 from October’s downwardly revised 99.1. Home pricesrose 0.7% in September,reaching a fresh record.
* Oil rose as OPEC+ got no closer to resolving its output quota dispute. The alliance hasn’t reached a deal with Angola and Nigeria, possibly further delaying a meeting now scheduled for Thursday,delegatessaid.
USDINR
Technical Observations
USDINR Dec fut closed below 21 DEMA after holding it for the past five trading sessions.
The formation of a bearish candle with the same close and low indicating weaknessin the pair.
Momentum Oscillator, RSI of 14 days period is turned down and placed below 50.
MACD has been placed below a zero line with a flattish note.
Short buildup has been seen as price and open interest declined.
Short Term Trend: Neutral/Sideways
Expected Trading Range: 83.15 to 83.55
Intraday Recommendation: Sell USDINR Dec. Fut. at 83.40/83.50 SL 83.56 Target 83.18
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