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Gold

Gold prices settled 0.44% higher at Rs153,765, supported by receding Federal Reserve rate hike expectations and reports that China’s central bank increased gold purchases in July. Investors remained focused on Middle East tensions and upcoming U.S. inflation, retail sales and consumer sentiment data, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook following the recent weak jobs report. Perth Mint gold sales rose 3.8% month-on-month to 30,871 ounces in July, reaching a three-month high and gaining 41% year-on-year. CFTC data showed speculative net-long COMEX gold positions increased by 12,070 contracts to 132,398 contracts for the week ended August 4, indicating strong bullish positioning amid geopolitical uncertainty, inflation volatility and central bank buying. Physical demand remained mixed, with Indian discounts widening to $47 an ounce, while Chinese premiums moderated to $3-$5. London vault holdings increased 0.77% month-on-month to 9,464 tonnes, valued at $1.2 trillion. India’s net gold imports declined 23% year-on-year to 98.1 tonnes in the June quarter, while domestic demand fell 6% to 131.4 tonnes. Global gold demand remained steady at 1,268.9 tonnes in Q2, supported by central-bank purchases of 289 tonnes, up fivefold from the revised Q1 estimate. Technically, the market remains under short covering, with open interest declining 0.88% to 10,276 contracts while prices gained Rs666. Gold is finding support at Rs152,845, and a break below this level could expose Rs151,925. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs155,060; a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward Rs156,355.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 151925-156355.

* Gold gains on receding Fed hike bets and reports suggesting that China's central bank stepped up gold purchases in July.

* Investors kept a close eye on the Middle East crisis and braced for the release of key U.S. economic data.

* U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. is semi-negotiating with Iran and wants Iran to remain under economic pressure.

Silver

Silver prices settled 0.51% lower at Rs235,659 as investors booked profits after the recent rally and assessed the potential impact of elevated oil prices on inflation and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook. However, underlying support remained firm from industrial consumption linked to solar panel manufacturing, electronics and electricity grid development. Chinese imports of silver-bearing ores surged 62.5% year-on-year in June to 219,000 tonnes, highlighting strong raw-material demand. CFTC data showed speculative net-long COMEX silver positions rising by 2,679 contracts to 11,067 contracts for the week ended August 4, indicating improving bullish positioning. Perth Mint silver sales jumped 65.5% month-on-month to 486,043 ounces in July and increased 7.5% year-on-year. London vault holdings rose 1.7% month-on-month to 28,082 tonnes, valued at $53.1 billion. The global silver market is expected to remain in structural deficit for a sixth consecutive year, with the 2026 deficit forecast to widen to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million ounces in 2025 despite total demand declining 2%. Industrial fabrication is expected to fall 3%, while coin and bar demand is projected to rise 18%. Global supply is forecast to decline 2%, reinforcing longer-term supply concerns. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 2.49% to 10,873 contracts while prices fell Rs1,208. Silver is finding support at Rs232,800, and a break below this level could expose Rs229,940. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs240,260; a sustained move above this level could trigger recovery toward Rs244,860.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 229940-244860.

* Silver dropped as investors took profits following a strong rally and assessed the potential impact of surging oil prices on inflation and the interest rate outlook.

* Recent data showed Chinese imports of silver-bearing ores jumped 62.5% year-on-year in June to 219,000 tonnes.

* Meanwhile, uncertainty remained over a potential US-Iran agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, keeping markets cautious.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices settled 1.76% higher at Rs7,940 as fading hopes for a near-term Washington-Tehran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz intensified concerns over global supply disruptions. U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington is semi-negotiating with Iran while maintaining economic pressure, keeping uncertainty elevated around the critical energy route. U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories also fell below 300 million barrels for the first time since January 1983, highlighting tighter emergency supply availability. CFTC data showed speculative net-long WTI positions declining by 4,683 contracts to 101,824 contracts for the week ended August 4, indicating some reduction in bullish exposure. China’s July crude imports declined 24.3% year-on-year to 35.73 million tonnes, while January-July imports fell 13.2% to 283.33 million tonnes, signalling weaker demand. U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly increased by 2.479 million barrels to 407 million barrels, while Cushing stocks rose 2.356 million barrels. However, gasoline inventories declined 1.643 million barrels and distillate stocks fell 3.473 million barrels, providing some support to refined-product balances. OPEC+ approved a 188,000 barrels per day production quota increase from September, completing the rollback of its 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary supply cut, although geopolitical disruptions could limit actual supply growth. Technically, the market remains under short covering, with open interest declining 0.77% to 8,877 contracts while prices gained Rs137. Crude oil is finding support at Rs7,765, and a break below this level could expose Rs7,591. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs8,094; a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward Rs8,249.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7591-8249.

* Crude oil rose amid fading hopes for a deal between Washington and Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global energy supplies.

* Supply concerns intensified amid growing doubts over a near-term agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

* U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. is semi-negotiating with Iran and wants Iran to remain under economic pressure.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled 0.38% lower at Rs265.4 amid weaker LNG export flows, near-record production and expectations of softer demand over the coming two weeks. U.S. Lower 48 gas output averaged 111.1 bcfd in August, above July’s record 110.7 bcfd, keeping supply abundant. Inventories remained above the five-year average since March, with stocks expected to stand 6.6% above normal for the week ended August 7. However, warmer-than-normal temperatures through August 26 are expected to sustain gas demand from power generators, with around 40% of U.S. electricity generation coming from gas-fired plants. LSEG expects Lower 48 demand including exports to decline from 114.2 bcfd this week to 110.5 bcfd next week. CFTC data showed speculative net-short positions increasing by 28,093 contracts to 89,090 contracts, reflecting strong bearish sentiment due to elevated inventories and high production. U.S. gas inventories increased by 33 bcf in the week ended July 31, exceeding expectations of 31 bcf and the five-year average injection of 23 bcf. Total storage reached 3.117 trillion cubic feet, 6.7% above the five-year average. The EIA expects dry gas production to reach 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 115.3 bcfd in 2027, while LNG exports are projected at 17.4 bcfd and 18.6 bcfd respectively. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 0.48% to 45,565 contracts while prices declined Rs1. Natural gas is finding support at Rs262.3, and a break below this level could expose Rs259.2. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs268.9; a sustained move above this level could trigger recovery toward Rs272.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 259.2-272.4.

* Natural gas dropped amid a bearish decline in liquefied natural gas export flows, near-record output

* Average gas flows to nine big US LNG export plants ease to 17.1 bcfd so far in August

* Storage surplus seen narrowing to 6.6% above five-year norm before Thursday's EIA report

Copper

Copper prices settled 0.16% higher at Rs1,379.15, supported by tightening global supply expectations and concerns over constrained mine output. Potential U.S. import tariffs continued redirecting copper toward American warehouses, while the Democratic Republic of Congo’s copper concentrate export ban added to supply concerns. LME available copper inventories nearly halved to 101,425 tonnes at end-July from 201,700 tonnes in June, while the share of Chinese-origin stocks declined to 42% from 59%. However, SHFE copper stocks increased 1.1% to 70,116 tonnes, while China’s Yangshan premium fell to $101 per tonne and domestic spot premium declined to 70 yuan, signalling softer import demand. Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 refined copper deficit forecast outside the U.S. to 640,000 tonnes from 60,000 tonnes, highlighting tightening availability. CFTC data showed speculative net-long COMEX positions rising by 11,307 contracts to 77,796 contracts. Chilean production was mixed, with Escondida output rising 45.8% year-on-year to 111,400 tonnes, while Codelco production fell 4.8% to 114,400 tonnes. The ICSG reported an 18,000-tonne refined copper surplus in May, while the January-May surplus reached 221,000 tonnes. China’s July unwrought copper imports declined 11.5% year-on-year to 425,000 tonnes, while refined copper output rose 2.5% to a record 1.334 million tonnes. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.03% to 10,349 contracts while prices gained Rs2.2. Copper is finding support at Rs1,374.8, and a break below this level could expose Rs1,370.4. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs1,384.7; a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward Rs1,390.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1370.4-1390.2.

* Copper gained supported by signs of tightening global supply and expectations for constrained mine output.

* Goldman Sachs has sharply revised its copper outlook, raising its forecast for the 2026 refined-copper.

* Chilean copper output rises in June at Escondida and Collahuasi, but drops at Codelco

Zinc

Zinc prices settled 0.10% lower at Rs393.35 amid profit booking after the recent rally, although tight near-term supply continued to provide underlying support. LME available zinc stocks remained at 73,825 tonnes, the lowest since December, while the cash contract traded around $60 per tonne above the three-month forward, maintaining steep backwardation and signalling prompt-market tightness. The August contract premium over the three-month forward remained above $63 per tonne. Heavy rainfall and flooding in China raised concerns over disruptions to mining, smelting and transportation, while a southwestern mine is expected to reduce August concentrate production by around 1,000 tonnes of contained zinc. A central Chinese smelter maintenance shutdown could affect output by 1,000-1,500 tonnes. Glencore reported first-half zinc production down 21% year-on-year to 365,600 tonnes, while Boliden’s concentrate production declined 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes. China’s refined zinc output increased 10% year-on-year to 641,000 tonnes in May, highlighting strong smelter activity. The global zinc surplus narrowed sharply to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April, although the January-May surplus stood at 163,000 tonnes versus 44,000 tonnes a year earlier. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories increased 0.1%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 0.44% to 2,712 contracts while prices fell Rs0.4. Zinc is finding support at Rs392.1, and a break below this level could expose Rs390.8. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs395.1; a sustained move above this level could trigger recovery toward Rs396.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 390.8-396.8.

* Zinc dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid LME available zinc stocks were at the lowest since December

* Support also seen as heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of China raised concerns over potential disruptions to mining, smelting operations.

* Zinc smelter in Central China plans to carry out routine maintenance in August, which is expected to last around half a month, affecting output by 1,000-1,500 mt.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled 0.18% higher at Rs356.5, supported by concerns over tight inventories and expectations of a continued market deficit. LME aluminium inventories remained at 254,900 tonnes, the lowest level this century, while Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks declined by 13,000 tonnes last week. Supply concerns strengthened as aluminium output outside China fell 6.7% year-on-year in July, mainly due to lower operating rates at Middle Eastern smelters. Heavy rainfall and flooding in China’s Sichuan province also raised concerns over disruptions to smelting operations, hydropower supply and transportation. Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000-300,000 tonnes to 9.5-9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions in Western Australia. However, upside remained limited by recovering Middle Eastern production, including the restart of Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah refinery, and elevated Chinese exports. China’s July aluminium and semi-finished product exports rose 18.6% year-on-year to 643,000 tonnes, while January-July exports increased 16.7% to 4.04 million tonnes. Global primary aluminium output declined 1.5% year-on-year to 5.98 million tonnes in June, with Gulf production falling to 332,000 tonnes from 507,000 tonnes. Japanese port inventories also declined 7.8% to 220,300 tonnes. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 5.38% to 4,679 contracts while prices gained Rs0.65. Aluminium is finding support at Rs354.5, and a break below this level could expose Rs352.4. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs359.2; a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward Rs361.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 352.4-361.8.

* Aluminium prices rose as fears of tight inventory and a continued supply deficit boosted the light metal.

* Aluminium stocks have fallen sharply, and market expect to remain in deficit this year.

* Output outside China fell 6.7% year-on-year in July, mainly due to reduced operating rates at several Middle Eastern smelters.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled 1.24% higher at Rs21,088, supported by concerns over lower-than-expected sowing expansion in key growing regions, raising fears of tighter production for the upcoming harvest. However, improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, along with higher reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, has eased crop failure concerns and improved water availability. Good rainfall during the past five to six days is expected to accelerate sowing, while turmeric acreage is still projected to rise 16.05% year-on-year and remain above the five-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares. Carry-forward stocks remain structurally tight at around 15 lakh bags versus more than 20 lakh bags last season. European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations are supporting premiums for Integrated Pest Management compliant turmeric while pressuring non-compliant commercial grades. India’s May turmeric exports declined marginally by 1% year-on-year to 18,960 tonnes, while April-May exports remained broadly stable at 33,999 tonnes. Shipments to China, Oman, Yemen and Italy recorded strong growth, with April-May exports to China surging 4,631% to 2,021 tonnes. Nizamabad spot prices declined 0.21% to Rs20,355.4. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 3.4% to 17,775 contracts while prices gained Rs258. Turmeric is finding support at Rs20,782, and a break below this level could expose Rs20,478. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs21,340; a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward Rs21,594.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20478-21594.

* Turmeric gains as lower-than-expected sowing expansion in key growing regions.

* Tighter European Union regulations on Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs) led to rejections of non-IPM compliant lots, discounting commercial-grade turmeric prices.

* Re-sowing completed in North Karnataka following rainfall, crop conditions improve.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20355.4 Rupees dropped by -0.21 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled up 0.14% at Rs 20,940, supported by a rapid tightening in the availability of premium-quality bold seeds. Daily arrivals at major markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan have started tapering, while blight outbreaks in key Gujarat pockets have affected both crop quality and harvestable quantities. However, upside remained limited as farmers continued aggressive stock liquidation to generate cash for Kharif sowing, while favorable weather accelerated harvesting and deliveries. NCDEX warehouse stocks are also building, reducing immediate procurement urgency. Industrial grinders remain cautious, preferring hand-to-mouth purchases, while improved crop prospects in Turkey and Syria are weighing on Indian export premiums. European and North American buyers are selectively purchasing residue-compliant and high-specification lots. India’s cumin production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags this season, against 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat output projected at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. China production is estimated at 70–80 thousand tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan may produce 9–10 thousand, 10–11 thousand and 10–12 thousand tonnes respectively. India’s May jeera exports declined 26% year-on-year to 17,177 tonnes, while Apr–May exports fell 22% to 33,431 tonnes. However, shipments to Singapore, Mexico and Yemen increased sharply. Technically, Jeera is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 6.42% to 5,670 contracts while prices gained Rs 30. Support is placed at Rs 20,830, followed by Rs 20,730. Resistance is seen at Rs 21,040, above which prices could test Rs 21,150.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20730-21150.

* Jeera gains amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to dampen logistics and demand from key traditional buyers.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20604.25 Rupees dropped by -0.07 percent.

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