IGI Logo

Gold

Gold prices surged sharply, settling up 3.33% at 147,255, primarily driven by easing geopolitical tensions after Donald Trump delayed potential military action on Iran and extended the negotiation deadline to April 6. The temporary relief in the Strait of Hormuz, along with limited oil flow disruptions, supported bullish sentiment. However, upside momentum remained capped as markets increasingly price out U.S. rate cuts in 2026 amid persistent inflation risks linked to the ongoing conflict. On the demand front, China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong jumped 125% month-on-month to 46.25 tonnes, reflecting strong underlying consumption. In India, demand improved modestly due to softer prices, though buyers remained cautious. Global physical markets showed mixed trends, with narrowing premiums in China and stable to discounted pricing across other Asian hubs. Institutional sentiment remains constructive, with Commerzbank raising its year-end gold forecast to $5,000/oz, citing sustained geopolitical risks and central bank diversification trends. The World Gold Council also highlighted continued central bank interest, though elevated prices may moderate buying volumes slightly. Technically, the market indicates fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 8.7% to 6,011 lots alongside a price increase of Rs.4,741. Immediate support is seen at 144,290, with downside risk extending to 141,320. On the upside, resistance is placed at 149,590; a breakout above this level could push prices toward 151,920.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 141320-151920.

* Gold rose as President Donald Trump pushed back his deadline for Iran to secure a deal to end the war.

* Trump extends deadline for striking Iran's energy plants to April 7

* China's February net gold imports via Hong Kong rose 125% from January

Silver

Silver prices rallied strongly, settling 3.67% higher at 227,954, as geopolitical tensions showed signs of temporary easing after Donald Trump delayed action on Iran and extended the negotiation deadline to April 6. The move helped calm market nerves, especially with limited disruption reported in the Strait of Hormuz. However, uncertainty still lingers as Iran rejected the U.S. proposal, keeping the broader risk environment intact. At the same time, the interest rate outlook in the U.S. remains unclear. Comments from Federal Reserve officials highlighted that the trajectory of inflation—largely influenced by the Middle East conflict—will be key in determining whether rates move higher or eventually decline. This uncertainty continues to influence precious metals sentiment.  On the demand side, silver is seeing strong fundamental support from China, where imports surged to an eight-year high, crossing 790 tonnes in the first two months of 2026. Robust industrial and investment demand has tightened supply, while London vault holdings declined by 2.4% to 27,065 tonnes, reflecting ongoing drawdowns. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 3.35% to 5,664 lots even as prices gained Rs.8,080. Immediate support is seen at 221,515, with a break lower potentially testing 215,075. On the upside, resistance is placed at 234,090, and a sustained move above this level could open the door toward 240,225.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 215075-240225.

* Silver strengthened as President Donald Trump postponed his deadline for Iran to secure a deal to end the war.

* China's silver imports have reportedly hit an eight-year high in the first two months of 2026.

* Traders have fully priced out U.S. rate cuts in 2026, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices jumped sharply, settling 4.4% higher at 9,395, as markets grew increasingly doubtful about a near-term resolution to the Iran conflict. Despite Donald Trump extending the negotiation deadline to April 6 and signaling progress in talks, the overall situation remains tense. The conflict has already removed nearly 11 million barrels per day from global supply, with the International Energy Agency calling it more severe than the oil shocks of the 1970s. Rising geopolitical risks, including potential troop deployments and supply disruptions from Russia, continue to support prices. Supply-side concerns are further compounded by warnings from Russian producers about possible force majeure on exports, while geopolitical tensions involving Ukraine add another layer of uncertainty. At the same time, U.S. inventory data painted a mixed picture. Crude stocks rose sharply by 6.9 million barrels, marking the fifth consecutive weekly build, while Cushing inventories saw their biggest jump since early 2023. Distillate stocks also increased, although gasoline inventories declined more than expected, offering some support to demand sentiment. On the technical front, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 3.55% to 15,603 lots alongside a Rs.396 price gain. Immediate support is seen at 9,005, with a break below potentially testing 8,615. Resistance stands at 9,600, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 9,805.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8615-9805.

* Crude oil prices rose amid skepticism that the US and Iran could reach a deal to end the war soon.

* The conflict has taken about 11 million barrels per day out of global oil supply.

* International Energy Agency describing the crisis as worse than the two 1970s oil shocks combined.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices moved higher, settling up 3.06% at 289.7, supported by a stronger-than-expected withdrawal from U.S. storage, signaling firm near-term demand. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, inventories declined by 54 billion cubic feet for the week ended March 20—well above market expectations. This brought total stockpiles down to 1.829 trillion cubic feet, still slightly above both last year’s levels and the seasonal average. That said, this could be the last significant draw of the winter season, as forecasts point to warmer temperatures into early April, which typically reduces heating demand. At the same time, geopolitical developments remain in focus, with Donald Trump delaying potential action on Iran, offering some relief to global energy markets. However, U.S. gas prices continue to remain relatively stable due to ample domestic supply and limited exposure to global disruptions. On the supply side, production remains strong, averaging 109.6 bcfd in March, while demand is projected to hover around 110 bcfd in the near term. Looking ahead, the EIA expects output to hit record highs through 2027, even as domestic consumption sees a slight dip in 2026. Technically, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest falling 10.64% to 20,793 lots while prices gained ?8.6. Support is placed at 281.1, with a break lower potentially testing 272.4. On the upside, resistance stands at 295.2, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 300.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 272.4-300.6.

* Natural gas gains after energy companies pulled more gas than usual out of storage, a signal of stronger demand.

* Energy companies pulled 54 billion cubic feet of gas from stockpiles during the week ended March 20 – EIA

* Stockpiles fell to 1.829 trillion cubic feet, about 5.2% above year-ago levels and 0.8% above the seasonal average.

Copper

Copper prices edged higher, settling up 1.01% at 1,150.4, as markets found some support from hopes of easing geopolitical tensions. Sentiment improved after Donald Trump extended the deadline for potential action against Iran, allowing more time for negotiations. While this provided short-term relief, the broader outlook remains uncertain, with reports of possible additional U.S. troop deployments keeping risk premiums in play. Despite the modest rebound, copper has faced pressure in recent weeks due to rising energy costs and concerns that prolonged conflict could slow global industrial activity. On the supply side, inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 12.6% over the past week, indicating tighter near-term availability. However, this was offset by a sharp build in LME warehouse stocks, which have climbed to an eight-year high, up 153% since the start of the year. Demand trends appear mixed. While earlier price dips triggered some restocking in China, overall sentiment remains cautious. Import data showed a 16.1% year-on-year decline in unwrought copper imports, even as concentrate imports increased. Market forecasts are also diverging, reflecting uncertainty around the macro environment. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 4.2% to 9,314 lots as prices rose Rs.11.5. Immediate support is seen at 1,142, with a break below potentially testing 1,133.5. Resistance is placed at 1,159, and a move above this level could push prices toward 1,167.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1133.5-1167.5.

* Copper rose supported by hopes for a diplomatic resolution between the US and Iran.

* President Donald Trump extended the deadline to strike Iranian energy infrastructure by 10 days to allow for negotiations.

* Copper market in 17,000 metric tons surplus in Jan 2026 – ICSG

Zinc

Zinc prices moved higher, settling up 1.78% at 315.35, supported by tightening supply conditions and improving sentiment. A key driver was the decline in inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which fell 2.3% over the past week, pointing to near-term supply tightness. Market sentiment also got a lift after Donald Trump signaled a temporary pause in actions against Iran’s energy infrastructure, easing immediate geopolitical concerns. Fundamentally, the market continues to draw support from ongoing supply constraints, including low inventory levels and disruptions from mine closures and delays. At the same time, China’s industrial recovery has provided a steady demand backdrop, with output rising 6.3% year-on-year in the first two months of 2026 and fixed-asset investment showing gradual improvement. However, the upside remains somewhat capped. Concerns about the broader global economic impact of the Iran conflict continue to weigh on industrial metals. Additionally, expectations of a small global surplus this year—driven by rising mine supply and concentrate destocking—are limiting bullish momentum, even as longer-term supply growth may slow. On the technical front, the market is seeing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 7.96% to 2,225 lots alongside a Rs.5.5 price gain. Immediate support is seen at 312.4, with a break below potentially testing 309.2. Resistance is placed at 317.3, and a move above this level could push prices toward 319.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 309.2-319.

* Zinc rose as inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 2.3% from last Friday.

* Support seen following U.S. President Donald Trump's statements this week on pausing attacks on Iran's energy plants.

* Support also seen due to ongoing concerns about tight supply and historically low inventories in certain regions.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged higher, settling up 1.04% at 339.65, as supply concerns continued to support the market. Disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict have raised worries about exports from Gulf producers, which account for roughly 9% of global supply. This tightening has pushed LME cash premiums to their highest levels since 2007, while Japanese buyers are now paying the steepest quarterly premiums in over a decade. Supply-side pressures remain a key theme. LME inventories have dropped sharply—down more than 32% since Q4 2025—highlighting tightening availability. At the same time, potential bauxite export restrictions from Guinea, a major global supplier, have added another layer of concern around raw material supply. However, some of these risks are being partially offset by efforts from producers to secure alternative shipping routes and maintain supply flows. On the flip side, gains are being capped by broader macro uncertainty. Rising oil prices and concerns about the global economic impact of the Iran conflict are weighing on industrial metals sentiment. Additionally, global aluminium inventories remain relatively high, and buyers are largely sticking to just-in-time purchasing. Increased output from China and globally is also limiting upside momentum. From a technical perspective, the market is seeing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 7.45% to 2,915 lots alongside a Rs.3.5 price gain. Immediate support is seen at 336.9, with a break below potentially testing 334.1. Resistance stands at 341.7, and a move above this level could push prices toward 343.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 334.1-343.7.

* Aluminium gained amid worries about exports from Gulf region producers, caused concerns over near-term availability.

* Japanese aluminium buyers agreed to pay premiums of $350 per metric ton for shipments between April and June, the highest in 11 years.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.6% from last Friday, the exchange said.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices moved higher, settling up 2.71% at 14,836, supported by tight arrivals and steady domestic as well as export demand. Market sentiment remains firm as both farmers and stockists have reduced their holdings, limiting immediate supply ahead of the new crop. Weather-related disruptions in key producing states like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka have also impacted yields, adding to supply concerns. At the all-India level, production is estimated at around 90 lakh bags, up from 82.5 lakh bags last season. However, lower carry-forward stocks are offsetting the increase in output, keeping overall availability in check. In the near term, prices may face some pressure as fresh arrivals, especially from Erode, are expected to pick up over the next couple of weeks. Higher acreage, supported by favorable rains, is also likely to add to supply in the coming months. Demand remains broadly stable, with exports showing mixed trends. While January shipments declined 19% year-on-year, cumulative exports for April–January edged up 2%, indicating steady underlying demand. On the import side, a sharp decline reflects reduced reliance on overseas supply. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping 7.23% to 15,200 lots while prices gained Rs.392. Immediate support is seen at 14,496, with a break below potentially testing 14,158. Resistance is placed at 15,026, and a move above this level could push prices toward 15,218.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14158-15218.

* Turmeric gained as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* It is reported that both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their stocks, providing a base for the market.

* Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14850.65 Rupees gained by 1.19 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices edged lower, settling down 0.86% at 21,905, mainly due to the arrival of the new crop in key mandis. As arrivals begin to gather pace through March, the market is feeling some pressure from improving supplies and relatively weak export demand. Comfortable stock levels and subdued buying interest from overseas markets have also weighed on sentiment. That said, the downside appears limited. Weather concerns are starting to resurface, with rising temperatures in North Gujarat raising the risk of heat stress on late-sown crops. This could impact seed development and trim yield prospects. Overall production is expected to decline by around 5% this year, with Gujarat likely seeing a sharp drop due to lower acreage and yields, while Rajasthan may partially offset losses with better output. Demand trends remain mixed. While premium-quality jeera continues to see steady interest, overall export demand has been weak. January exports dropped sharply by 48% year-on-year, and cumulative shipments are also down, reflecting sluggish global demand despite supply disruptions in other producing countries. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 4.76% to 6,243 lots as prices declined by Rs.190. Immediate support is seen at 21,800, with a break below potentially testing 21,680. Resistance is placed at 22,060, and a move above this level could push prices toward 22,200.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21680-22200.

* Jeera dropped as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.

* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* India Meteorological Department has issued alerts for rising temperatures in North Gujarat.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21842.8 Rupees gained by 0.04 percent.