The Nifty Private Bank index has outperformed the benchmark, ending the day at 27,756 up 2.22% - ICICI Direct
Nifty :25285
Technical Outlook
Day that was…
Equity benchmarks wrapped up the volatile week on a positive trajectory, aided by encouraging quarterly business update. The Nifty gained ~1.6% to settle the week at 25285. Sectorally, FMCG, Metal and Auto were the laggards. Whereas, IT, Realty and Pharma outshone.
Technical Outlook:
* Nifty started the week on a positive note, making higher-high-low paving the way for a positive weekly close. As a result, the weekly price action formed a bull candle indicating, positive momentum to continue.
* Nifty is likely to witness gap-down opening tracking volatility amid global development tariff. Key point to highlight is that, follow through strength helped index to clear the hurdle of 25200 as bulls tighten the grip on multiple sectors carrying 2/3 of the index weightage. We expect Nifty to gradually head towards short term milestone of 25800 with elevated support at 24700 which is 80% retracement of the current upmove. Bouts of volatility amid global development as well as ongoing earning season cannot be ruled out which would offer incremental buying opportunity. Our positive bias is further validated by following observations:
* The faster pace of retracement in Bank Nifty helped index to resolve out of 2 months high. The banking internals like private banks, PSU Banks, NBFC’s are showing structural improvement that makes us believe, Bank Nifty is gearing up to challenge it’s All Time high of 57600 in coming months.
* The index heavy weight Banking index along with Oil & Gas have surpassed their 2 months high. Further, following the auto index, Metal has clocked a fresh All-time high. Meanwhile, Capital goods, Consumption, pharma, Power indices are undergoing higher base formation. Cumulatively, these indices carry more than two third weightage of Nifty that corroborates our positive stance
* Structurally, Index staged a strong rebound after approaching maturity of price and time wise correction. Further, seasonality favours bulls in October month that would pave the way for Nifty challenging All Time high of 26300 by the year end.
* Market breadth witnessed month-on-month improvement on the ratio chart as rising ratio chart of stocks making new 52 weeks high vs new 52 weeks low (Universe: Nifty) signifies broadening of rally.
* Key Monitorable for the next week:
a. US and India inflation print b. Beginning of Q2FY26 earning season
c. Development on tariff negotiations
d. Gold: With > 50% up move in this year the monthly RSI has surpassed 90 levels for the first time since 1980. Such overbought conditions suggest possibility of short-term breather wherein Gold can consolidate in $4100- $3700 range
Nifty Bank : 56610
Technical Outlook
Day that was:
Bank Nifty concluded the volatile week on a firm footing positive a positive close and settled higher at 56610 up 1.87%. The Nifty Private Bank index has outperformed the benchmark, ending the day at 27,756 up 2.22%.
Technical Outlook:.
* Bank Nifty started the week on a positive note, and witnessed follow through strength above the previous week high and oscillated ~2800 points during the week. Consequently, the weekly price action has formed a bullish candle, indicating upward momentum likely to continue.
* Index is likely to witness gap down opening tracking weak global cues amid tariff development. The faster pace of retracement in Bank Nifty helped index to resolve out of 2 months high. The banking internals like private banks, PSU Banks, NBFC’s are showing structural improvement that makes us believe, Bank Nifty is gearing up to challenge it’s All Time high of 57600 in coming months. Therefore, any dip from current levels should be seen as a buying opportunity, with immediate support placed near 54,600, representing the 80% retracement of the ongoing up move (54,226-56,164).
* Structurally, bank Nifty has shown a tendency to register fresh all-time highs following a decisive close above the preceding twO month’s high. The current breakout above this pivotal level reinforces the positive price structure and signals the likelihood of an extension in the ongoing uptrend towards new lifetime highs.
* PSU Bank Index has mirrored the benchmark and closed on a positive note. As a result, the weekly price action formed a bullish bar, indicating acceleration in ongoing uptrend. Index has closed above its recent swing high (7651) that would help index to extend its current up move to challenge it’s all time high 8050. On the downside, initial support is placed at 7,225, which aligns with the 50% retracement of the latest upswing (6,730–7,651
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