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Nifty : 18989

Technical Outlook

• The index started the session on a subdued note and gradually inched downward as the day progressed. The daily price action resulted into a bear candle carrying higher high-low, indicating extended breather ahead of US Fed meet outcome

• Going ahead, we expect index to trade with a positive bias as holding above last week’s low of 18838 would keep pullback towards 19450 in coming weeks as it is 61.8% retracement of last leg of decline (19850-18838). However, the move towards 19450 would be in a non linear manner as volatility would remain elevated tracking escalating global concerns.

• The broader markets are undergoing healthy retracement wherein >75% percentage of stocks (Nifty 500 Universe) are trading above 200-day ema in October against March23 reading <40%, indicating shallow nature of profit taking amid robust price structure

• The formation of lower peak and trough amid global volatility makes us retain the support base for the Nifty at 18700 zone as it is confluence of 52 weeks EMA coincided with previous swing high of 18887 which would now act as key support as per change of polarity concept

Nifty Bank: 42701

Technical Outlook

• The price action for the day formed a small Doji candle with lower high low indicating extended base formation/consolidation after recent correction in the vicinity of 52 -week ema

• Going forward, we expect index to gradually head towards 43800 levels in nonlinear fashion . Therefore, use dips as buying opportunity in large banks (private and PSU both) as we expect index to hold key support of 41800 . Key support is placed at 41800 levels as it is a confluence of :

• 61 . 8 % retracement of entire rally from March 2023 (38613 -46369),

• value of rising 52 -week ema which has been held on couple of occasions since CY2020 currently at 42700 (transitory breach usually is sign of capitulation)

• Structurally, Index is in the process of undergoing a retracement of March to July rally over while pricing in various negatives in the process . We believe current decline would lead to a strong higher base formation that would set the base formation for next leg of structural up trend

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