IGI Logo

TRAI’s Dec’23 subscriber (subs) data shows industry’s MBB (mobile broadband — 3G+4G+5G) subs addition continued to be robust at 7.4mn. MBB additions were robust for Jio (4mn) and Bharti (2.3mn) but muted for VIL (0.7mn) and BSNL (0.4mn). Further, industry’s active subs also increased by 1.9mn in Dec’23, led by strong additions of 3mn/1.2mn for Bharti/VIL, partly offset by decline of 1.8mn/0.4mn for VIL/BSNL. Further, the industry’s overall subs addition was also strong at 4.3mn in Dec’23. Jio’s net subs rose for the 22nd consecutive month (up 4mn in Dec’23); however, its active subs addition was a tad lower at 1.2mn. Hence, Jio’s VLR ratio further fell to 92.3% in Dec’23 (vs. 92.9% in Nov’23) vs. 98.9% for Bharti and 88.2% for VIL. Bharti’s MBB subs addition was also robust at 2.3mn in Dec’23 while its active subs base increased by 3mn. VIL’s MBB subs base also witnessed net addition of 0.7mn in Dec’23; however, the fall in its overall subs continues. Separately, both Jio and Bharti witnessed robust FTTH additions also in Dec’23.

* Jio’s net subs up for the 22nd consecutive month (up 4mn in Dec’23); however, active subs increased only by 1.2mn: Jio’s net subs rose by 4mn in Dec’23, continuing the monthly increase ranging from 0.7mn to 4mn since Mar’22. Earlier, Jio had reported a net subs loss of 3.7mn/9.3mn/12.9mn/19mn in Feb’22/Jan’22/Dec’21/Sep’21 due to sim consolidation post the Nov’21 tariff hike and repurposing of customer retention efforts for low-ARPU subscribers. However, Jio’s active subs increased only by 1.2mn in Dec’23 (vs. 1.2mn in Nov’23). Hence, Jio’s VLR ratio further declined to 92.3% in Dec’23 vs. 92.9% in Nov’23 (vs. peak of 94.5% in Jun’23) and vs. 98.9% for Bharti and 88.2% for VIL.

* Bharti’s MBB subs addition robust at 2.3mn in Dec’23; active subs addition even stronger at 3mn: Bharti’s MBB subs addition continued to be robust at 2.3mn in Dec’23 after the company reported robust addition of 1.5mn-4mn each month during Feb’22-Nov’23 (except for decline of 0.3mn in Apr’22 and muted addition of 0.5mn in Oct’23). Further, Bharti’s active subs base also witnessed strong addition of 3mn in Dec’23. Hence, its VLR ratio improved to 98.9% in Dec’23 (vs. 98.6% in Nov’23).

* VIL witnessed muted MBB subs addition in Dec’23; decline in its overall subs continues: VIL’s MBB subs base was up by 0.7mn in Dec’23 after declining four times in the last 11 months, probably driven by delay in its 5G rollout (with this, Jan’22-Dec’23 cumulatively witnessed only 5.1mn rise in MBB subs). Further, its active subs base declined by 1.8mn (in line with the declining trajectory witnessed in the last few months except in Sep’23). Further, overall subs base fell by 1.4mn in Dec’23, continuing the downward trend due to churn in lower ARPU segments given the sharp hike in entry level prepaid tariffs. Notwithstanding the moratoriums, VIL needs to close the fund-raise exercise quickly for a meaningful increase in capex to boost MBB upgrades.

* Jio and Bharti witness robust FTTH additions in Dec’23: Jio’s FTTH subs additions was robust at 0.23mn in Dec’23 (vs. peak addition of 0.35mn in Apr’22). Bharti’s FTTH subs addition was also decent at 0.11mn in Dec’23 (vs. peak addition of 0.17mn in Jul’23).

Please refer disclaimer at https://www.jmfl.com/disclaimer

CIN Number : L67120MH1986PLC038784