Spot gold is to expected to hold its gains and move higher amid renewed tariff worries - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot gold is to expected to hold its gains and move higher amid renewed tariff worries. US president has raised the global tariffs from 10% to 15% on Saturday, which is likely to take effect immediately. Meanwhile, EU’s trade commissioner signaled a proposal to halt ratification of the trade deal with US, while India postponed negotiations before finalizing the interim trade deal. Prices would also get support on uncertainty over US-Iran tension, with growing fears of a potential military strike on Iran. Meanwhile, further, negotiators are scheduled to meet again in Geneva on Thursday.
• Spot gold is likely to rise towards $5200 as long as it holds above $5100. MCX Gold April is expected to move higher towards Rs.162,000 as long as it trades above Rs.155,000.
• MCX Silver March is expected to move higher towards Rs.274,000 as long as it holds above Rs.260,000. Only a move above Rs.274,000 it would rise towards Rs.282,000.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to hold its ground and move higher amid soft dollar and improved risk sentiments. A softer than expected US economic numbers has again reignited the prospects of lose monetary policy from the US Fed. Prices would get support after the tariff relief from the US Supreme Court, but there are no major changes to the separate 50% tariffs on semi furnished copper products imposed on national securities ground. Meanwhile, persistent rise in inventories at LME registered warehouses would hurt prices.
• MCX Copper March is expected to hold above Rs.1180 level and move higher towards Rs.1230 level. A break above Rs.1230 level, prices may rise towards Rs.1240-Rs.1245 level
• MCX Aluminum March is expected to rise towards Rs.315 level as long as its stays above Rs.302 level. MCX Zinc March is likely to rise towards Rs.330 level as long as it holds above Rs.323 level
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX Crude oil is hovering below $66 per barrel mark on growing prospects of a US-Iran nuclear deal ahead of further negotiation on Thursday. A positive comment from Iran’s foreign minister and confirmed plans to meet US envoy Steve Witkoff in Geneva has eroded the risk premiums. Meanwhile, investors will remain cautious after US President Donald Trump raised tariff to 15% following Supreme Court’s rejection of reciprocal tariffs.
• On the data front, addition of OI in ATM and OTM put strikes near $64 and $65 would serve as key floor. MCX Crude oil March is likely to rise towards 6100 mark, as long as it trades above 5900. Only close above 6100 it would turn bullish and open the doors towards 6200
• MCX Natural gas March future is expected to move towards 284. Only a move above 284 it would turn bullish towards 290.
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