IGI Logo

Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

• Spot gold is likely to slip further towards $2300 level amid strong dollar and surge in US treasury yields. Dollar and Yields are moving north as hawkish comments from Fed officials and improved economic data from US, cemented expectations that US Fed would delay its rate cut and also reduce the scale of rate cut. Meanwhile, demand for safe haven may increase on intensifying tension in Middle East. Additionally, market will keep an close eye on GDP and labor data from US to gauge economic health. Spot gold is likely to slip further towards psychological level of $2300 as long as it stays below $2350 level (20-Day EMA).

• MCX Gold Aug prices is likely to slip further towards 71,700 level as long as it stays below 72,550 level (10-Day EMA). A break below 71,700 level prices may slide further towards 71,400 level.

• MCX Silver July is expected to follow gold and slip back towards 94,000 level as long as it stays below 96,500 level

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to trade with the negative bias amid firm dollar ahead of inflation data from US and weak global market sentiments. Further, prices may slip as premium in China to import copper into the country continued to remain below zero, indicating weak physical demand. Meanwhile, sharp fall may be cushioned due to China's latest measures to support its ailing property sector and as IMF upgraded its forecast for China's economic growth this year to 5% from an earlier estimate of 4.6%

• MCX Copper is expected to slip towards 898 level (10-Day EMA) as long as it stays below 914 level. A break below 898 level prices may move further south towards 887 level (20-Day EMA)

• Aluminum is expected to move north towards 252 level as long as it stays above 247 level. On contrary, break below 247 level prices may slip towards 243 level (10-Day EMA)

Energy Outlook

• NYMEX Crude oil is expected to hold the support near $78.50 level and rise back towards $80.50 level as US crude oil inventories fell much more than expected, reported by API. Additionally, prices may trade positive on expectations that OPEC+ would keep voluntary output cut in place at its upcoming meeting. Moreover, heightened tensions in Middle East after Israel sent tanks on raids into Rafah and predicted its war with Hamas would continue all year, would provide support to oil prices. Further, investors will keep an eye on EIA weekly inventory data, to get signs on strong demand

• MCX Crude oil June is likely to rise towards 6720 levels as long as it hold the support near 6550 level. 6720 is 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of April-May 2024 move (7322-6345). Should the bulls attempt to push prices higher, a break above 6720 it could pave the way for 50% Fibo of 6830 level

• MCX Natural gas June is expected to slip towards 215 level as long as it stays below 228 level

https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html

SEBI Registration number INZ000183631